Statistics derived from serial numbers

[Ruedon]

Here is a list derived from the serial numbers given at http://www.photosynthesis.co.nz/nikon/camera.html,
assuming that each model within spotted serial numbers exists. Even though this is of course not perfect, it gives an impression of the popularity of different Nikon cameras.

Some interesting findings:

• compared to the high times of DX DSLR, the numbers went down in the order of a factor of 10 per model (e.g. D5100 2,883,269 vs Z6II 234,950)
• the numbers are long term stable for high-end bodies D1 - D5 and Z9
• already models like D750, D610 and D700 started showing a trend from DX to FX (e.g. D750 705,479 vs D7500 292,568)
• Z6II is the most popular Z model so far, closely followed by Z50 and Z6
• Z5 also quite popular -- between Z7(II) and Z6(II)
• Zf not that popular, about 1/5 of Z6II. Zfc respectable 2/3 of Z50
• Z8 left Z7II and Z7 behind, still about a factor of three lower than D850
• The sum of all DX DSLRs is about ten times higher than the sum of all FX DSLRs. On contrary, the sum of all DX mirrorless is about 2 times lower than the sum of all FX mirrorless.

Summing the below numbers up per mount and sensor size:

F DX: 36356709
F FX: _3813926
Z DX: __486162
Z FX: _1070687

Here the full list, sorted by numbers descending:

D5100 ... (Apr 2011) ... 2883269
D3100 ... (Sep 2010) ... 2803613
D90__ ... (Aug 2008) ... 2724054
D3200 ... (Apr 2012) ... 2404103
D5300 ... (Oct 2013) ... 2348782
D3300 ... (Jan 2014) ... 2250248
D60__ ... (Jan 2008) ... 1972352
D7000 ... (Sep 2010) ... 1930234
D40__ ... (Nov 2006) ... 1913599
D80__ ... (Aug 2006) ... 1540723
D3000 ... (Jul 2009) ... 1476464
D5200 ... (Nov 2012) ... 1323958
D50__ ... (Apr 2005) ... 1130594
D5000 ... (Apr 2009) ... 1113779
D7100 ... (Feb 2013) ... 1031679
D70__ ... (Jan 2004) ... _789423
D750_ ... (Sep 2014) ... _705479
D70S_ ... (Apr 2005) ... _694217
D610_ ... (Oct 2013) ... _677035
D200_ ... (Nov 2005) ... _669518
D40X_ ... (May 2007) ... _657507
D3400 ... (Aug 2016) ... _630029
D7200 ... (Feb 2015) ... _628716
D300_ ... (Aug 2007) ... _609368
D5500 ... (Jan 2015) ... _565392
D700_ ... (Jul 2008) ... _543560
D5600 ... (Nov 2016) ... _403580
D3500 ... (Aug 2018) ... _385467
D850_ ... (Aug 2017) ... _363560
D800_ ... (Feb 2012) ... _362932
D300S ... (Jul 2009) ... _318821
D100_ ... (Feb 2002) ... _302765
D7500 ... (Apr 2017) ... _292568
D810_ ... (Jun 2014) ... _270927
D600_ ... (Sep 2012) ... _265987
Z6II_ ... (Oct 2020) ... _234950
Z50__ ... (Oct 2019) ... _232969
Z6___ ... (Aug 2018) ... _231149
D500_ ... (Jan 2016) ... _227532
Zfc__ ... (Oct 2021) ... _153352
Z5___ ... (Jul 2020) ... _151351
D1X__ ... (Feb 2001) ... _122769
Z8___ ... (May 2023) ... _116266
Z7II_ ... (Oct 2020) ... _100704
Z7___ ... (Aug 2018) ... __99770
D3___ ... (Aug 2007) ... __96541
Z30__ ... (Jun 2022) ... __92111
D800E ... (Feb 2012) ... __85308
D4___ ... (Jan 2012) ... __78119
D780_ ... (Jan 2020) ... __77160
Df___ ... (Nov 2013) ... __74071
D2X__ ... (Sep 2004) ... __71889
D3S__ ... (Oct 2009) ... __67104
Z9___ ... (Oct 2021) ... __59125
Zf___ ... (Sep 2023) ... __43458
D2H__ ... (Jul 2003) ... __42591
D4S__ ... (Feb 2014) ... __41692
D5___ ... (Jan 2016) ... __41331
D1___ ... (Jul 1999) ... __39065
D3X__ ... (Dec 2008) ... __35016
Z6III ... (Jun 2024) ... __33914
D2XS_ ... (Jun 2006) ... __27211
D6___ ... (Feb 2020) ... __24745
D1H__ ... (Feb 2001) ... __22769
D2HS_ ... (Feb 2005) ... ___8061
Z50II ... (Nov 2024) ... ___7730
D810A ... (Feb 2015) ... ___3359

 

[AstigmaticOwl]

Thanks for all the work.

Now I'm thinking about all the ways I'd like to see it sorted: date of introduction, price...

There was obviously a huge bump in sales as people converted from film. And the early days are biased by the relative cost (and availability) of DX and FX sensors. Today we have probably reverted to a trendline that looks more like the film days. Cellphone cameras have replaced disposable and instant film cameras.

 

[Ruedon]

Thanks for all the work.

Now I'm thinking about all the ways I'd like to see it sorted: date of introduction, price...

Yea. Sorted by date of introduction does also sound interesting, as the market has changed obviously.

There was obviously a huge bump in sales as people converted from film. And the early days are biased by the relative cost (and availability) of DX and FX sensors. Today we have probably reverted to a trendline that looks more like the film days. Cellphone cameras have replaced disposable and instant film cameras.

Plus simple sharing that is new and not yet covered by dedicated cameras ...

 

[shuncheung]

Here is a list derived from the serial numbers given at http://www.photosynthesis.co.nz/nikon/camera.html,
assuming that each model within spotted serial numbers exists. Even though this is of course not perfect, it gives an impression of the popularity of different Nikon cameras.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but there are various gaps in those serial numbers. Photosynthesis is a New Zealand-based web site and most of the S/N are from Englsih-speaking individuals. Countries such as China and Japan are major markets for Nikon, and a lot of such data are missing. Moreover, there are various gaps among those serial numbers. For example, back around April 2022, Z9 S/N in the US suddenly jumped by approximately 10,000; I assume the jump could be exactly 10,000, but there is no way I can verify that without information from Nikon. European Z9 has a similar S/N jump around June 2022, and at least I have no idea why those jumps happened.

Z9 serial numbers (continuation thread)

The previous thread has reached the 150 posts limit. At 28th February serial numbers for the EU and USA series numbers seemed each to end around 6,400. At 31st March in USA they ended around 7,750. We have just been told of around 8,400 in USA at 14th April. A prediction of around 9,200 for...

www.dpreview.com

And who knows how many other such gaps are in so many S/N. We knew about the Z9 because we were tracking that closely back then, as there was major Z9 shortage for the first several months.

 

[brucet]

Interesting to see the drop in numbers for newer versions. ie D7000 to D7100 to D7200 etc etc. We could speculate why.

I was flashing the creditcard for the Z6ii but jumped on the Zf. Even though the Zf had more technology it hasn't sold big numbers. Is it simply a matter of style/looks?

 

[rodon1]

Who knows when that list was last updated? For example, I have a D850 with a serial number (3126xxx) that is 12k over the listed US numbers, sold as new late last year.

 

[backayonder]

Not sure if the serial number from my D200 is included. Remember the D200 that I purchased the day before the D300 was released but the shop owner didn't tel me?

 

[brucet]

Here is a list derived from the serial numbers given at http://www.photosynthesis.co.nz/nikon/camera.html,
assuming that each model within spotted serial numbers exists. Even though this is of course not perfect, it gives an impression of the popularity of different Nikon cameras.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but there are various gaps in those serial numbers. Photosynthesis is a New Zealand-based web site and most of the S/N are from Englsih-speaking individuals. Countries such as China and Japan are major markets for Nikon, and a lot of such data are missing. Moreover, there are various gaps among those serial numbers. For example, back around April 2022, Z9 S/N in the US suddenly jumped by approximately 10,000; I assume the jump could be exactly 10,000, but there is no way I can verify that without information from Nikon. European Z9 has a similar S/N jump around June 2022, and at least I have no idea why those jumps happened.

https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/66116441

And who knows how many other such gaps are in so many S/N. We knew about the Z9 because we were tracking that closely back then, as there was major Z9 shortage for the first several months.

You are probably right. But even so the above figures give a broad enough set of figures to have some statistical merit.

 

[Bob A L]

D850_ ... (Aug 2017) ... _363560. - ? how's that

 

[Ruedon]

D850_ ... (Aug 2017) ... _363560. - ? how's that

By summing up the differences between spotted serial numbers. There is quite some geographical distribution covered. The site says: Last update 8 Jan 2025. Of course it lives from people submitting their serial numbers.

 

[MKenna]

Here is a list derived from the serial numbers given at http://www.photosynthesis.co.nz/nikon/camera.html,
assuming that each model within spotted serial numbers exists. Even though this is of course not perfect, it gives an impression of the popularity of different Nikon cameras.

Some interesting findings:

• compared to the high times of DX DSLR, the numbers went down in the order of a factor of 10 per model (e.g. D5100 2,883,269 vs Z6II 234,950)
• the numbers are long term stable for high-end bodies D1 - D5 and Z9
• already models like D750, D610 and D700 started showing a trend from DX to FX (e.g. D750 705,479 vs D7500 292,568)
• Z6II is the most popular Z model so far, closely followed by Z50 and Z6
• Z5 also quite popular -- between Z7(II) and Z6(II)
• Zf not that popular, about 1/5 of Z6II. Zfc respectable 2/3 of Z50
• Z8 left Z7II and Z7 behind, still about a factor of three lower than D850
• The sum of all DX DSLRs is about ten times higher than the sum of all FX DSLRs. On contrary, the sum of all DX mirrorless is about 2 times lower than the sum of all FX mirrorless.

Summing the below numbers up per mount and sensor size:

F DX: 36356709
F FX: _3813926
Z DX: __486162
Z FX: _1070687

Here the full list, sorted by numbers descending:

D5100 ... (Apr 2011) ... 2883269
D3100 ... (Sep 2010) ... 2803613
D90__ ... (Aug 2008) ... 2724054
D3200 ... (Apr 2012) ... 2404103
D5300 ... (Oct 2013) ... 2348782
D3300 ... (Jan 2014) ... 2250248
D60__ ... (Jan 2008) ... 1972352
D7000 ... (Sep 2010) ... 1930234
D40__ ... (Nov 2006) ... 1913599
D80__ ... (Aug 2006) ... 1540723
D3000 ... (Jul 2009) ... 1476464
D5200 ... (Nov 2012) ... 1323958
D50__ ... (Apr 2005) ... 1130594
D5000 ... (Apr 2009) ... 1113779
D7100 ... (Feb 2013) ... 1031679
D70__ ... (Jan 2004) ... _789423
D750_ ... (Sep 2014) ... _705479
D70S_ ... (Apr 2005) ... _694217
D610_ ... (Oct 2013) ... _677035
D200_ ... (Nov 2005) ... _669518
D40X_ ... (May 2007) ... _657507
D3400 ... (Aug 2016) ... _630029
D7200 ... (Feb 2015) ... _628716
D300_ ... (Aug 2007) ... _609368
D5500 ... (Jan 2015) ... _565392
D700_ ... (Jul 2008) ... _543560
D5600 ... (Nov 2016) ... _403580
D3500 ... (Aug 2018) ... _385467
D850_ ... (Aug 2017) ... _363560
D800_ ... (Feb 2012) ... _362932
D300S ... (Jul 2009) ... _318821
D100_ ... (Feb 2002) ... _302765
D7500 ... (Apr 2017) ... _292568
D810_ ... (Jun 2014) ... _270927
D600_ ... (Sep 2012) ... _265987
Z6II_ ... (Oct 2020) ... _234950
Z50__ ... (Oct 2019) ... _232969
Z6___ ... (Aug 2018) ... _231149
D500_ ... (Jan 2016) ... _227532
Zfc__ ... (Oct 2021) ... _153352
Z5___ ... (Jul 2020) ... _151351
D1X__ ... (Feb 2001) ... _122769
Z8___ ... (May 2023) ... _116266
Z7II_ ... (Oct 2020) ... _100704
Z7___ ... (Aug 2018) ... __99770
D3___ ... (Aug 2007) ... __96541
Z30__ ... (Jun 2022) ... __92111
D800E ... (Feb 2012) ... __85308
D4___ ... (Jan 2012) ... __78119
D780_ ... (Jan 2020) ... __77160
Df___ ... (Nov 2013) ... __74071
D2X__ ... (Sep 2004) ... __71889
D3S__ ... (Oct 2009) ... __67104
Z9___ ... (Oct 2021) ... __59125
Zf___ ... (Sep 2023) ... __43458
D2H__ ... (Jul 2003) ... __42591
D4S__ ... (Feb 2014) ... __41692
D5___ ... (Jan 2016) ... __41331
D1___ ... (Jul 1999) ... __39065
D3X__ ... (Dec 2008) ... __35016
Z6III ... (Jun 2024) ... __33914
D2XS_ ... (Jun 2006) ... __27211
D6___ ... (Feb 2020) ... __24745
D1H__ ... (Feb 2001) ... __22769
D2HS_ ... (Feb 2005) ... ___8061
Z50II ... (Nov 2024) ... ___7730
D810A ... (Feb 2015) ... ___3359

Very interesting, great work, thanks!

Some observations:

1 That the D6 sold in 24745 units is a bit surprising to me, it's more than I would have thought.

2 The sales of D500 I thought would have been higher, 227532 units is in the middle of the road, and compared to D200 (669518) and D300 (609368) apparently it wasn't that successful, and even the D300S (318821) was sold in more units. FX competition was of course bigger when the D500 was released.

3 As noted, sales have shifted from the cheap (DX) cameras. The numbers D5100 (2883269) was sold in is extraordinary...compared to Z50 (232969).

 

[24Peter]

brucet wrote

Even though the Zf had more technology it hasn't sold big numbers. Is it simply a matter of style/looks?

For me personally it was ergonomics. I liked the tech and could have probably lived with the looks. But it's the only camera I've ever picked up where it immediately felt uncomfortable - and I've held/used dozens of different camera bodies over the past 20 years.

--
www.peteralessandriaphotography.com
Instagram
My DPReview Feature Article

 

[chambeshi]

brucet wrote

Even though the Zf had more technology it hasn't sold big numbers. Is it simply a matter of style/looks?

For me personally it was ergonomics. I liked the tech and could have probably lived with the looks. But it's the only camera I've ever picked up where it immediately felt uncomfortable - and I've held/used dozens of different camera bodies over the past 20 years.

Nikon executives have mentioned the Zfc and Zf are popular in Asia, particularly Japan. But as pointed out, these markets are undersampled in this dataset

 

[shuncheung]

brucet wrote

Even though the Zf had more technology it hasn't sold big numbers. Is it simply a matter of style/looks?

For me personally it was ergonomics. I liked the tech and could have probably lived with the looks. But it's the only camera I've ever picked up where it immediately felt uncomfortable - and I've held/used dozens of different camera bodies over the past 20 years.

Way back in 2013, I once reviewed the Df. Therefore even before picking up a Zf or Zfc, I already knew that it is uncomfortable for me to hold those cameras without a proper grip, and adding an external grip won't help me because that doesn't move the shutter release button forward.

But another killer is the combination of SD and Micro SD card slots.

However, apparently the quick succession between the Zf and Z6iii caused the Z6iii price to decline quickly, and I took advantage of that.

 

[shuncheung]

1 That the D6 sold in 24745 units is a bit surprising to me, it's more than I would have thought.

I have no doubt that the 24745 count for the D6 is greatly larger than the actual sale numbers. Nikon announced the D6 in late February 2020 in preparation for the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics, but the Covid-19 pandemic started almost immediately after that announcement. Due to all sorts of supply-chain issues, Nikon couldn't ship the D6 until the 2nd half of 2020 but the Olympics had already been postponed.

By March 2021, Nikon was feeling the pressure from the Sony A1 and pre-announced the Z9; that was only a few months after the D6 started shipping, and few were buying cameras in the middle of the pandemic as all sorts of events were cancelled. Once it was clear that the Z9 was coming, I have little doubt that few ever bought the D6. Total D6 sales should be below 10K.

 

[Leonard Shepherd]

Who knows when that list was last updated? For example, I have a D850 with a serial number (3126xxx) that is 12k over the listed US numbers, sold as new late last year.

The site information is updated about every two weeks – but very much operates using information provided by owners of newly purchased equipment.

 

[shuncheung]

Who knows when that list was last updated? For example, I have a D850 with a serial number (3126xxx) that is 12k over the listed US numbers, sold as new late last year.

The site information is updated about every two weeks – but very much operates using information provided by owners of newly purchased equipment.

For Z lenses, since there is only one set of serial numbers per lens model world-wide, it is relatively easy to get an idea how many have been sold. Typically, production Z lens S/N start from 20002001, and pre-production ones are below 20002000. However, one exception is the 180-600mm zoom, whose S/N apparently starts from 20025001: https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/67319988

And some special edition lenses with retro style have S/N starting from 30002001.

However, for camera bodies, since there are different S/N sequences for different regions, IMO it is very wrong to simply add everything together.

Of course, when people report S/N, who knows how many of them have typos and all sorts of errors.

 

[Leonard Shepherd]

for camera bodies, since there are different S/N sequences for different regions, IMO it is very wrong to simply add everything together.

I mainly agree - the site is little known to Japanese and Far East Nikon owners - with limited information for these territories.

An alternative might be to guesstimaee world wide body sales based on USA sales often accounting for somewhere between 25 and 33% of Nikon world wide sales.

For better or worse there seems no other publicly available source of Nikon sales information other than global body and lens number information in Nikon financial results.

 

[Ruedon]

...

2 The sales of D500 I thought would have been higher, 227532 units is in the middle of the road, and compared to D200 (669518) and D300 (609368) apparently it wasn't that successful, and even the D300S (318821) was sold in more units. FX competition was of course bigger when the D500 was released.

3 As noted, sales have shifted from the cheap (DX) cameras. The numbers D5100 (2883269) was sold in is extraordinary...compared to Z50 (232969).

The comparably low numbers of D500 and D7500 surprise me too. Think of heated discussions about a high-end DX camera.

Also the dominance of $2000+ Z6* surprise me: Z6+Z6II+Z6III sum up to 500013, about every third Z camera. Would have expected the Z5 (151351) offering almost the same for photography at a better price to be more popular. I wonder if a Z5II can change that.

Also a ZfcII will be interesting to see, having the popularity of Fujifilm X100VI in mind. Have a look at Leica D-Lux 8 initial review -- How it compares. That's basically a Zfc with either 16-50/3.5-6.3 or with 24/1.7.

 

[Leonard Shepherd]

Also the dominance of $2000+ Z6* surprise me: Z6+Z6II+Z6III sum up to 500013, about every third Z camera. Would have expected the Z5 (151351) offering almost the same for photography at a better price to be more popular.

One unknown factor is what percentage of owners provide their serial number to the site. Lower priced body owners are likely to be those least aware of the site.

Z5 sales may be somewhat higher than the reported numbers indicate.

I wonder if a Z5II can change that.

Time will tell. This is an affordable body - in a very different market to 7 or 10 years ago before Nikon digital FX became relatively affordable.

I am hoping for a more pro grade Z500 type product with at least 30 MP and a Z8 type battery before considering parting with money.

--
Leonard Shepherd
In lots of ways good photography is similar to learning to play a piano - it takes practice to develop skill in either activity.