One of the things that’s difficult in trying to help you here is that you keep jumping outside of this specific issue to discuss other things that have seemingly no bearing on your current problem, and it’s easy for people replying to get lost. For example: relating your experiences shooting events or processions only serve to confuse the issue in the context of static portrait shots. You talk about TTL definitely being problematic, but then when you switch in the next paragraph talking about AF-C, you don’t say whether or why you’d shoot in TTL for the volleyball stuff.
To put it simply: with these portraits are you shooting TTL or not? Is the problem consistently an issue with TTL in these portraits, or does it stop when you’re out of TTL? (IMO for the portraits you’ve shared, TTL is absolutely irrelevant and I’m unclear as to why it’s part of the conversation.) Does it only happen in AF-C, or AF-S as well? Are you shooting back button focus or shutter release+focus? What trigger are you using? Is the trigger on the latest firmware? Are your cameras on their latest firmware? Are your lights on their latest firmware?
Given that we’ve identified that it’s an interaction between your new lens, TTL (maybe?), and the strobes, I would take a moment to think about all of the settings along the chain of that process and do A/B scenarios turning them on/off and running through the issue. Off the top of my head at a minimum you’ve got:
AF-C vs AF-S priority
AF area mode- tracking or not
Subject detect on or off
Back button focus or not
Curtain sync mode: first vs rear
HSS or not
If in HSS are you shooting too close to normal sync (e.g. 1/500) - this is problematic in my experience and I push to 1/800 or faster in HSS to clear it up
TTL or not
Strobe output power setting and related flash duration
AF release/focus priority
Trigger sub-settings: various modes, are they in conflict with the camera
I can’t recall offhand what this is what it’s called on the Z bodies but Auto-FP, setting the upper limit of flash sync and shutter behavior
Lens custom behaviors
I know you’ve answered some of these above but I’m just giving you a run off of stuff I’d check. Definitely not needing your replies to each, it’s just a reference for you to consider. So for example when you write things like “it’s definitely something with TTL” there are so many things that interact with TTL, it might be more accurate to assign blame to another thing, and recognize that it only becomes apparent in TTL (it could be release priority for example).
All of this seems to be contradicted by the fact that my physical technique and approach to setting the camera and flash has remained unchanged from previous shoots where I did not experience these problems.
This is likely not the case. You’re just missing what you’ve changed (or what your gear has changed for you).
Well, yes, that's mostly the assumption and the point of the post is to try to figure out what may have changed.
Anecdotally I’ve never shot TTL, and never will, and have no focus issues shooting AF-C with the AD600 Pros in a variety of conditions/sync speeds/etc. I’m shooting a lot now with Z series cameras, subject detect sometimes, and switching between that and 3D tracking, and I’ve never had my camera jump from a face to another detail without it being very obvious. This is across the Z6, Z6III, Z8 and Z9, always using the R2ProII trigger. I’m trying to recall the last time I took these cameras out of AF-C and into AF-S and it’s a struggle - AF-C has gotten so good, which wasn’t necessarily the case for the D700/D810 which I shot for years.
I have mainly done without TTL. When I have used it, it does yield a pretty good exposure most of the time. A lot of event pros on this forum and elsewhere insist it's essential and I understand why. There are ways to work without it but there's no question that these are an extra mental load during an already hectic job and they absolutely slow you down a bit, meaning that you can miss things. I work without it because on the Z system it definitely causes some issues when shooting in AF-C, which is what you're primarily in for event stuff. It may be that for some use cases it will still work, but most of the things I would use it for involve processions of people walking towards the camera and with the plane of focus moving towards the camera it was back focusing on almost every shot in TTL. Swapping to manual flash mode eliminates that problem instantly, so it is definitely something with TTL.
With the AD-600s, I had shot them primarily in AF-C with no problems until the past few weeks. That is why I started in AF-C on those volleyball photos before swapping into AF-S.
Curious how the camera “feels” as you shoot these things - instantly responsive and snappy, or lagging and spongey. I get the spongey feeling when my camera is struggling in low contrast, or I’ve tried a setting like Rear Curtain and there’s a palpable delay between focus acquisition and firing.
It's pretty snappy unless I am in fairly low lighting conditions - much lower than any of the portraits I do would be done in.
Also curious what your AF-C vs AF-S priority settings are. Years ago I read a Nikon “best AF settings for action” article which advised AF-C set to “focus” and AF-S set to “release.” I’ve heard other people advise to the contrary, but I’ve been shooting this way for ~14 years without issue.
Honestly, without looking I don't know because I have tested all the possible combinations of that for different use cases and never really found it made a difference. To me that is consistent with the idea that half the people say it is better one way and half say it is better the other way. If there really isn't much if any difference, you'd expect to get people recommending both.