Data doesn't lie. DSLRs are soon sinking below mirrorless in unit sales.

[EcoR1]

Most of the people don't understand how fast the DSLR-market have shrunken in few years and now they should see it clearly.

Actually, young one, most people understand perfectly well that the camera market as a whole is shrinking...

Regards, Mike

Well, grandpa, did I say otherwise?

Isn't it quite obvious, that when the market as such shrinks rapidly, segments of the market also shrink quite rapidly? You are claiming a denial which is simply not present

In other words, you are not posting anything new to anybody here; but apparently you had to get it off your breast. Feel better now?

Regards, Mike

 

[greg 123]

What is the purpose of the comparison?

Maybe it's time to start transitioning to mirrorless. In the long run it could save money as DSLR gear becomes less valued.

So you think I should spend $4500 (actually $6000 here in Canada) on a mirrorless body and probably another $6-9,000 on lenses, because in 5 or 6 years my Nikon DSLR's might not be worth much?

I don't think we're there yet.

You don't have to buy an A9 as that's overkill unless you have some very specific need. It's more a question of where you spend dollars for upgrades. Though once you start using mirrorless gear the DSLR gear starts gathering dust. It just wasn't worth the effort hauling around a D810 and pro lenses. I finally sold my Nikon FF gear while it was recent enough to fetch some money back.

 

[SpinOne]

If the trend continues

Which trend? If you start each graph at any different month you get a different trend.

Not really, that's the point of the trend line. You could start it at any point in 2013, and it will be downward.

I do think the OP stresses the "zomg DSLR going to zero!" argument too much, but it is reasonable to believe that if current trends continue, mirrorless may outsell DSLR in a few years.

Both types of camera might plunge. DSLRs might make a comeback. Or [insert any possibility that you care to mention].

Yeah, I don't think so.

DSLRs are mature, and the average person who buys a midrange DSLR for family photos and vacations no longer needs to purchase a new camera every 2 years to work towards decent quality.

Electronic viewfinders are amenable to improvement. When they get good enough many DSLR users will be happy to switch. Who knows when that will happen?

High-end EVFs are pretty much there. High resolution, low lag, no blackout with 10-20fps, preview in the viewfinder....

I don't think that is holding a lot of people back. IMO it's that Nikon and Canon haven't gotten serious about mirrorless. Once that happens, things will change fairly rapidly.

 

[Mike CH]

First ad hominem, now cherry picking part of the sentences, so they lose context.

You seem a mite touchy about people not standing up and clapping their hands over your post. Why is that?

Did you seriously expect people to fall over, exclaiming "Thank you, master, for opening our eyes - we had never realised this without your help!"?
Regards, Mike

 

[nuke12]

Maybe the data does not lie but they way it is interpreted can lie.

 

[orca_kkl]

Based on the trend you derived from the data, in a few more years the sales of DSLR will be negative! The manufacturers will be buying back those cameras...

I'd better keep mine to sell them back to Nikon...

 

[beatboxa]

This is "Sony is the best ever week!"

"Imminent death of the DSLR!" is next week.

Kindly go back to the entrance, draw an number and then get in line.

Regards, Mike

Actually IDoD was two weeks ago. As IDoD is on a monthly schedule it should only come up in another two weeks normally, but May is Immanent Death of Photography as We know it (IDoPaWki) month, so now IDoD is only due in June.

True - monthly schedule, but didn't we switch it with "CaNikon betrays its customers!" so "You don't get equivalence!" didn't come too close to "My SmartPhone is the bestest!" week?

The last two always create a such mess, too much overlap, when they occur too close to each other...

Regards, Mike

 

[Alleg1]

So???

I realize that you may only be making a point but I don't get why so many people seem to get so worked up over the mirrorless/mirror options. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. If one or the other works for you great, you don't need push your preferences on people it doesn't work for.

Quite!

Perhaps Insecurity is the key!

 

[Mike CH]

This is "Sony is the best ever week!"

"Imminent death of the DSLR!" is next week.

Kindly go back to the entrance, draw an number and then get in line.

Regards, Mike

Actually IDoD was two weeks ago. As IDoD is on a monthly schedule it should only come up in another two weeks normally, but May is Immanent Death of Photography as We know it (IDoPaWki) month, so now IDoD is only due in June.

True - monthly schedule, but didn't we switch it with "CaNikon betrays its customers!" so "You don't get equivalence!" didn't come too close to "My SmartPhone is the bestest!" week?

The last two always create a such mess, too much overlap, when they occur too close to each other...

Regards, Mike

 

[tkbslc]

That graph shows DSLR sales tanking and mirrorless sales flat for years. Neither of those are good things for the industry. Mirrorless is not really winning the war, it is just treading water while DSLRs are holding on to the edge of the cliff trying not to fall in. That's not a graph of a healthy industry.

 

[Bambi24]

What do you think? When the DSLR-camera shipments sink below mirrorless?

This is what we think.

 

[justmeMN]

Mirrorless' ILC unit shipment share has only gone from 20% in 2012 to 27% in 2016.

Source: CIPA

 

[Rajeshb]

I am sure when that happens, every DPR member will magically become master photographers.

 

[Doug J]

This is "Sony is the best ever week!"

"Imminent death of the DSLR!" is next week.

Kindly go back to the entrance, draw an number and then get in line.

Regards, Mike

That's why I was a bit confused, thought it was a time warp :-D


Cheers,
Doug

 

[Martin.au]

I don't think a linear trend is appropriate. DSLRdata at least would be better defined as a curve.

 

[CubeAce]

Cipa is an organisation that tracks camera and lens shipments from Japanese companies. From 2012 onward in has reported mirrorless as their own category. Now is a good time to look at all historical data and try to interpret the future.

From the data we can see that with each passing year DSLR-shipmensts are smaller compared to previous year. On the other hand, mirrorless shipments have been very stable during the same period of time. If the trend continues the same, the DSLR-shipmenst are going to sink below mirrorless in few years. That's absolutely clear.

The tipping point could happen even sooner. It seems that Canon is finally trying to put their mirrorless act together by releasing more serious EOS-M-cameras. Nikon has also stated that they will concentrate more on higher end-market - meaning that entry level DSLR-shipments are going down.

What do you think? When the DSLR-camera shipments sink below mirrorless?

Very welcome news.

Then maybe, god willing, the mirrorless fanatics will leave us poor old dinosaur DSLR users alone with our pathetic, hard to use, image inferior camera bodies of choice ;-)

 

[beatboxa]

Cipa is an organisation that tracks camera and lens shipments from Japanese companies. From 2012 onward in has reported mirrorless as their own category. Now is a good time to look at all historical data and try to interpret the future.

From the data we can see that with each passing year DSLR-shipmensts are smaller compared to previous year. On the other hand, mirrorless shipments have been very stable during the same period of time. If the trend continues the same, the DSLR-shipmenst are going to sink below mirrorless in few years. That's absolutely clear.

The tipping point could happen even sooner. It seems that Canon is finally trying to put their mirrorless act together by releasing more serious EOS-M-cameras. Nikon has also stated that they will concentrate more on higher end-market - meaning that entry level DSLR-shipments are going down.

What do you think? When the DSLR-camera shipments sink below mirrorless?

Coincidentally, i just got thru watching a "pre-review" of the A9 by the Canadian "The Camera Store" youtube channel. They seem quite convinced that the A9 is a serious challenge/problem for major DSLR makers. Of course, the A9 is the new "record holder" for continuous shooting 20fps for FF ILC camera. The defensive comment has been "who needs 20 fps?" The A9 covers that eventuality by offering 10fps and 5fps continuous as well. Plus the AF speed and hit rate is incredible. The Conversion of ILC cameras to mirrorless had to happen: fewer parts, no wearable parts other than buttons ), etc. Its no accident that the two new Medium Format cameras in the industry, i.e the Hasselblad and the Fuji have both been designed from the ground up as mirrorless cameras.

I estimate 2020 as the point where mirrorless sales reach 50% to 50% parity with DSLRs.

--
Phil B

Is the 20 fps the "compressed RAW" or whatever it is that Sony calls it, or is it the full size RAW or whatever it is that Canon calls what I shoot with my 5DIII?

David

--
When one engine fails on a twin-engine airplane, you always have enough power left to get you to the scene of the crash.'
Viewbug: https://www.viewbug.com/member/David_Pavlich

12-bit compressed RAW (of course). It only does 12-bit uncompressed RAW at 12 FPS; and 14-bit RAW's at 5 fps. Call it a "record holder" if you want, though that's more like manipulating the scope of the record than an actual apples-to-apples comparison. Should be fun waiting for that buffer to clear to the SD card...

For example, the Nikon D5 does 12 FPS @ 14-bit uncompressed; 14 FPS @ 14-bit uncompressed (mirror up); and 30 FPS JPEG in live view. Dual XQD cards.

Obviously this is irrelevant to this crowd that is more concerned with stats than taking pictures.

 

[Mark_A]

I don't get it, I just use cameras, I have had mirrorless and slr and am happy with either but I just don't get why anyone would buy into a system so much that they have to come onto a forum and argue about it.

Haven't you got pictures to make?

Mark_A

Thread for Sunrise & Sunset pictures (part 2!)

https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/58832936

 

[justmeMN]

"Segments" are not shrinking. Only the DSLR-segment. Go to to see the graphs again with your glasses on this time.

Wrong. According to CIPA, which created the below graph, more mirrorless cameras shipped in 2012 than in 2016.

(And in that same time period, mirrorless' ILC shipping share has only gone from 20% to 27%.)

Graph created by CIPA

 

[Mackiesback]

Mirrorless' ILC unit shipment share has only gone from 20% in 2012 to 27% in 2016.

Source: CIPA

While it's share has risen in the last 5 years, that is because DSLR sales are declining so much. Look at unit sales instead.

2012 = 3.957

2016 = 3.159

That's a 20% decline in unit sales over a 5 year period. This is something to brag about? This is not a positive. This chart is spin for saying our category sucks less than their category.

It's like people have zero business acumen on this board.



justmeMN, these comments are directed to the OP, to be clear. Cheers!