I agree that the ADs are currently driving the demand for more and more pixels, but it's funny to me how some of the same guys who want 12mp and then 20mp want those pixels, but not at the price of excellent quality pixels - they'll pay enough for digital SLR pixels but not enough for medium format digital pixels. Beer budget, champagne tastes.
There's a local "puff piece" business magazine, distributed for free, that thinks that only 20mp will do for their pages, but at their print quality you'd be challenged to tell the difference between a 6mp file and a 20mp file. I had a record company complaining that a 12mp file was really cutting it close - for an image that would be produced covering a quarter of the CD booklet page.
I think we'll see some leveling off of the craziness as people in the production chain start to understand the economics of having all your files be 16 bit 24mp. The bean counters will scream about the costs of storage, which are a lot higher than most people think since if you're doing it correctly, you have at least three backups of the original file and several of the production ready alternatives. I've seen a couple of articles by professional photographers (remember one by Vince Laforet) who shoot Canons where they talk about how they don't use their 20mp monster bodies except when specifically requested by a client, and shoot all of their spec and stock with the 5d - the economics of storing and managing the 20mp files are out of whack with what most buyers will pay for.
I'm sure there'll be somebody on the forum who'll rave on about how storage is cheap, quality is everything, etc, but that is generally the sound of someone who doesn't see photography as a business. It's a bankruptcy strategy to pour money into equipment and infrastructure at a rate that can't be matched by what the market will pay. There's a reason that the market for medium format backs is small...
Somewhere along the way I think that just like with film, the bean counters will put their heavy hands on the shoulders of the art directors, and suddenly 12mp will seem like more than enough.
There will always be publications where economics doesn't matter, and they'll keep paying for sheet film and drum scanning (although as one poster noted here, the demand for drum scanning is so low that now it's hard to find people skilled enough to get the max results.)
Well not quite.......
I didnt have a D3X and did manage...... but many clients are asking
for the 24 Mp pixel count and then there is double pages A3.
While my lighting comes out of studio strobes - I have plenty of them
and my lenses are prime lenses - old but plenty of them .... low light
isnt my main thing !
So some people say there isnt a market for the high pixel count....
THERE IS !
Its the art directors and the advertismemnt agencies that are into high
pixel count !
They want medium format backs and maybe ... I say maybe will be
convinced
by the new generation high pixel cameras.
ITS ALL ABOUT SELLING YOUR CROP !
Its simple mathematics ...... 12mp just doesnt sum up to a double
page ; )
Peter