Will DSLR be replaced by mirrorless?

[PhotoTeach2]

It seems like some mirrorless owners on DPReview feel like they need to prove their cameras are better.

When one is secure in the things they like, they just use them.

When one is insecure, they spend their time online trying to convince others (and often themselves).

Another way to look at it is if one's work were decent enough, they wouldn't have to use words to do the convincing.

Neither the quote or quoted above applies to the OP question related to the FUTURE (design) of cameras.

There is an applicable debate as to the current AND FUTURE capabilities of any potential design technology.

Seriously, how "slowly" have (SLR) dSLR's progressed in the last 50 years, compared to ML in only the last 5 years.

Seriously what yet CAN be done with dSLR's and their inherent "mirror" limitations ???

I suggest the future of ML technology is virtually unlimited, (only by "sensor" write/read speed and CPU/RAM power).

Why do we want to keep an "anvil" (mirror) chained to our ankles ???

 

[gary0319]

ML are better and better... much better than the ones just a couple of years ago... but personally I only will consider ML as a replacement for my DSLR when they offer also a reliable and efficient electronic only shutter... then I will have something interesting where mechanics will be limited only for IBIS and electric switches and dial in the camera.

Probably I will have to wait 5 years more.

Regards,

Just out of curiosity, what parameters have you set that would constitute a “reliable and efficient” shutter. My Olympus E-M1 II has a pretty good electronic shutter, so good that I rarely ever use the mechanical one (I prefer silent)

 

[PhotoTeach2]

ML are better and better... much better than the ones just a couple of years ago... but personally I only will consider ML as a replacement for my DSLR when they offer also a reliable and efficient electronic only shutter... then I will have something interesting where mechanics will be limited only for IBIS and electric switches and dial in the camera.

Probably I will have to wait 5 years more.

But you are aware that when they finally optimize a "global" shutter, (w/ unlimited flash-sync), the same lanenters here will argue to retain the Focal-Plane shutter and 1/200s sync and HSS flash.

 

[Jonsi]

When one is secure in the things they like, they just use them.

When one is insecure, they spend their time online trying to convince others (and often themselves).

Another way to look at it is if one's work were decent enough, they wouldn't have to use words to do the convincing.

Neither the quote or quoted above applies to the OP question related to the FUTURE (design) of cameras.

There is an applicable debate as to the current AND FUTURE capabilities of any potential design technology.

Seriously, how "slowly" have (SLR) dSLR's progressed in the last 50 years, compared to ML in only the last 5 years.

Seriously what yet CAN be done with dSLR's and their inherent "mirror" limitations ???

I suggest the future of ML technology is virtually unlimited, (only by "sensor" write/read speed and CPU/RAM power).

Why do we want to keep an "anvil" (mirror) chained to our ankles ???

I rest my case.

 

[PhotoTeach2]

ML are better and better... much better than the ones just a couple of years ago... but personally I only will consider ML as a replacement for my DSLR when they offer also a reliable and efficient electronic only shutter... then I will have something interesting where mechanics will be limited only for IBIS and electric switches and dial in the camera.

Probably I will have to wait 5 years more.

Regards,

Just out of curiosity, what parameters have you set that would constitute a “reliable and efficient” shutter. My Olympus E-M1 II has a pretty good electronic shutter, so good that I rarely ever use the mechanical one (I prefer silent)

60fps w/ no "jello" at even the highest speed (airplane-propeller) subjects.

And unlimited flash-sync and f/stop, (ala 1/4000s @ f/2.8 for SUN-light fill-flash at high-power/long-range).

 

[gary0319]

ML are better and better... much better than the ones just a couple of years ago... but personally I only will consider ML as a replacement for my DSLR when they offer also a reliable and efficient electronic only shutter... then I will have something interesting where mechanics will be limited only for IBIS and electric switches and dial in the camera.

Probably I will have to wait 5 years more.

Regards,

Just out of curiosity, what parameters have you set that would constitute a “reliable and efficient” shutter. My Olympus E-M1 II has a pretty good electronic shutter, so good that I rarely ever use the mechanical one (I prefer silent)

60fps w/ no "jello" at even the highest speed (airplane-propeller) subjects.

And unlimited flash-sync and f/stop, (ala 1/4000s @ f/2.8 for SUN-light fill-flash at high-power/long-range).

Even my Lumix LX100 (leaf shutter) has flash sync to 1/4000 mechanical, and does a pretty good job on stopping a bee’s wings at 1/12,800 sec, although with some jello (image below) The LX100 is 4 year old technology, so I suspect the global shutter to be introduced very soon, especially in more sophisticated smaller sensors like Sony produces for the m4/3 world.

 

[stevo23]

I was reading Scott Kelby's Q&A about the EOS R and he mentioned

In the big picture, I think they see it replacing mirror-based cameras altogether at some point (just my opinion)

Now, I've read such proclamations before, but what struck me about this is that he is sponsored by Canon (actually, I don't know if he still is or not but I remember he was at least a few years ago because the Internet flipped out when he switched away from being sponsored by Nikon), yet this is NOT the message that Canon is sending it's customers. Obviously, Canon wouldn't say this because whatever timeline they put on it, people will freak out TODAY which would hurt their bottom line now and for a long time to come. So, they, like Nikon, need to convince their customers to transition slowly, assuming mirrorless market dominance in the future is inevitable.

So, credit to Scott for sharing his true thoughts despite the fact that they may not be consistent with Canon's messaging.

That said, I'm curious to know what the DPR community at large thinks about this.

In a poll, there are only so many options I can think of so I'll ask folks to type out a reply if they don't see an answer that matches their thoughts. And, of course, feel free to reply with any thoughts on the topic.

In this particular poll, I'll use the measure of market share of new sales as the reference point for DSLR replacing mirrorless - and let's set it at 60% MILC and 40% DSLR. Obviously, at that point, there will still be more DSLR in use because of past sales volume, but I think that's a fairly good indicator that the winds have shifted for good.

*MILC = Mirrorless Interchangeable Lens Camera
*Again, for the purposes of this poll, "outsell* means that 60% of interchangeable lens camera sales are mirrorless cameras and 40% are DSLR cameras.

Once politicians and celebrities and their handlers realize that journalists can take thousands of shots of an event like a signing or an announcement without a deafening barrage of mirror slap, they will make a rule banning all but electronic shuttered cameras. Or do they love all that noise? Maybe they love it!

 

[gary0319]

ML are better and better... much better than the ones just a couple of years ago... but personally I only will consider ML as a replacement for my DSLR when they offer also a reliable and efficient electronic only shutter... then I will have something interesting where mechanics will be limited only for IBIS and electric switches and dial in the camera.

Probably I will have to wait 5 years more.

Regards,

Just out of curiosity, what parameters have you set that would constitute a “reliable and efficient” shutter. My Olympus E-M1 II has a pretty good electronic shutter, so good that I rarely ever use the mechanical one (I prefer silent)

60fps w/ no "jello" at even the highest speed (airplane-propeller) subjects.

Pretty high bar. My Olympus will do 60fps raw with no buffer filling, but not sure about the airplane prop. I have not seen any wing jello in fast birds in flight, though. But, what DSLR could ever hope to even come close?

 

[tbcass]

Some people will always prefer a DSLR type optical viewfinder. DSLRs will become a niche product when those people disappear and Mirrorless can match everything the DSLR can do. I think manufacturers want mirrorless to replace DSLRs because I suspect they are cheaper to manufacture.

 

[gary0319]

I was reading Scott Kelby's Q&A about the EOS R and he mentioned

In the big picture, I think they see it replacing mirror-based cameras altogether at some point (just my opinion)

Now, I've read such proclamations before, but what struck me about this is that he is sponsored by Canon (actually, I don't know if he still is or not but I remember he was at least a few years ago because the Internet flipped out when he switched away from being sponsored by Nikon), yet this is NOT the message that Canon is sending it's customers. Obviously, Canon wouldn't say this because whatever timeline they put on it, people will freak out TODAY which would hurt their bottom line now and for a long time to come. So, they, like Nikon, need to convince their customers to transition slowly, assuming mirrorless market dominance in the future is inevitable.

So, credit to Scott for sharing his true thoughts despite the fact that they may not be consistent with Canon's messaging.

That said, I'm curious to know what the DPR community at large thinks about this.

In a poll, there are only so many options I can think of so I'll ask folks to type out a reply if they don't see an answer that matches their thoughts. And, of course, feel free to reply with any thoughts on the topic.

In this particular poll, I'll use the measure of market share of new sales as the reference point for DSLR replacing mirrorless - and let's set it at 60% MILC and 40% DSLR. Obviously, at that point, there will still be more DSLR in use because of past sales volume, but I think that's a fairly good indicator that the winds have shifted for good.

*MILC = Mirrorless Interchangeable Lens Camera
*Again, for the purposes of this poll, "outsell* means that 60% of interchangeable lens camera sales are mirrorless cameras and 40% are DSLR cameras.

Once politicians and celebrities and their handlers realize that journalists can take thousands of shots of an event like a signing or an announcement without a deafening barrage of mirror slap, they will make a rule banning all but electronic shuttered cameras. Or do they love all that noise? Maybe they love it!

Exactly.

I attended a rodeo and sat jammed shoulder-to-shoulder in the bleachers. I was using my Olympus E-M1Ii on electronic shutter. The man next to me was curious as to my photo I was chirping on (see below) and said he didn’ Think I had taken any pictures yet. He didn’t realize I had already shot over 2,000 frames at 18 fps (still on fist battery, BTW.

 

[jazja]

sooner or later.

this is the future.

 

[Jonathan Brady]

Honestly... When the new Nikon D850 comes out, people who went out and bought it didn’t tell the D810 owners they were wrong or stupid for not replacing their cameras right away.

This seems to be either A) an irrelevant, random statement or B) a straw man argument implying that I tell people they are either wrong or stupid for choosing to buy a DSLR. That's something I've never done in this thread or any other, or in person, over the phone, email, snail mail, carrier pigeon, or smoke signals. Heck, I don't remember every dream I have but I'm fairly certain I've never done it there, either.

Maybe mirrorless will replace the DSLR completely some day, but it doesn’t really matter if you already have a camera system. It only matters when you’re ready to upgrade. It seems like some mirrorless owners on DPReview feel like they need to prove their cameras are better.

Again, irrelevant or you're implying I'm one of those people - as you replied to me.

I just want people to like my photos, and 95% of that is me, not the camera features.

I don't even care if people like my photos. I enjoy photography for me. I enjoy using the cameras and lenses, process, interactions, challenge, post-work, and looking for opportunities to improve (which are innumerable). If other people like my photos, great! If not, it doesn't impact my enjoyment of gear, desire to shoot, drive to improve towards my goals, etc.

 

[PhotoTeach2]

ML are better and better... much better than the ones just a couple of years ago... but personally I only will consider ML as a replacement for my DSLR when they offer also a reliable and efficient electronic only shutter... then I will have something interesting where mechanics will be limited only for IBIS and electric switches and dial in the camera.

Probably I will have to wait 5 years more.

Regards,

Just out of curiosity, what parameters have you set that would constitute a “reliable and efficient” shutter. My Olympus E-M1 II has a pretty good electronic shutter, so good that I rarely ever use the mechanical one (I prefer silent)

60fps w/ no "jello" at even the highest speed (airplane-propeller) subjects.

And unlimited flash-sync and f/stop, (ala 1/4000s @ f/2.8 for SUN-light fill-flash at high-power/long-range).

Even my Lumix LX100 (leaf shutter) has flash sync to 1/4000 mechanical, and does a pretty good job on stopping a bee’s wings at 1/12,800 sec, although with some jello (image below) The LX100 is 4 year old technology,

I also regularly flash-sync my FZ-1000/2500 @ 1/4000s (@ both f/2.8 for longer range SUN-light fill --and-- f/8-11 to darken "backgrounds" for closer subjects).

 

[Gerry Winterbourne]

DSLR top ML is manual transmission to automatic.

Good point ... when was the last time you saw a new car w/ "manual" transmission ???

Yesterday. Outside the US there are still more manual boxes sold than automatic. You should try to base your ideas on evidence rather than your localised personal feelings.

 

[Jonathan Brady]

Maybe they love it!

Probably depends on their ego as some may associate the noise with interest (which they may conflate with importance).

 

[stevo23]

I was reading Scott Kelby's Q&A about the EOS R and he mentioned

In the big picture, I think they see it replacing mirror-based cameras altogether at some point (just my opinion)

Now, I've read such proclamations before, but what struck me about this is that he is sponsored by Canon (actually, I don't know if he still is or not but I remember he was at least a few years ago because the Internet flipped out when he switched away from being sponsored by Nikon), yet this is NOT the message that Canon is sending it's customers. Obviously, Canon wouldn't say this because whatever timeline they put on it, people will freak out TODAY which would hurt their bottom line now and for a long time to come. So, they, like Nikon, need to convince their customers to transition slowly, assuming mirrorless market dominance in the future is inevitable.

So, credit to Scott for sharing his true thoughts despite the fact that they may not be consistent with Canon's messaging.

That said, I'm curious to know what the DPR community at large thinks about this.

In a poll, there are only so many options I can think of so I'll ask folks to type out a reply if they don't see an answer that matches their thoughts. And, of course, feel free to reply with any thoughts on the topic.

In this particular poll, I'll use the measure of market share of new sales as the reference point for DSLR replacing mirrorless - and let's set it at 60% MILC and 40% DSLR. Obviously, at that point, there will still be more DSLR in use because of past sales volume, but I think that's a fairly good indicator that the winds have shifted for good.

*MILC = Mirrorless Interchangeable Lens Camera
*Again, for the purposes of this poll, "outsell* means that 60% of interchangeable lens camera sales are mirrorless cameras and 40% are DSLR cameras.

Once politicians and celebrities and their handlers realize that journalists can take thousands of shots of an event like a signing or an announcement without a deafening barrage of mirror slap, they will make a rule banning all but electronic shuttered cameras. Or do they love all that noise? Maybe they love it!

Exactly.

I attended a rodeo and sat jammed shoulder-to-shoulder in the bleachers. I was using my Olympus E-M1Ii on electronic shutter. The man next to me was curious as to my photo I was chirping on (see below) and said he didn’ Think I had taken any pictures yet. He didn’t realize I had already shot over 2,000 frames at 18 fps (still on fist battery, BTW.

Love it! And love my electronic shutter on my Fuji.

 

[stevo23]

Maybe they love it!

Probably depends on their ego as some may associate the noise with interest (which they may conflate with importance).

I could put a name on that right now, but no need to inflame the thread.

 

[Gerry Winterbourne]

But I won't be spending my time trying to convince people online how much better my camera is than theirs.

Do any people really need convincing anymore? I thought it's pretty much settled that MILC offers significant advantages. Now, a few people don't need those advantages, but that doesn't mean those advantages don't exist.

Your linguistic logic is flawed. Something is only an advantage if someone wants or needs it - so if they don't need it it isn't an advantage.

I think the issue arises when a few people claim MILC isn't better, which is an inaccurate assessment.

No; it's perfectly true. Mirrorless and DSLR are different but neither is better or worse than the other.

--
---
Gerry
___________________________________________
First camera 1953, first Pentax 1985, first DSLR 2006

Galleries by Gerry Winterbourne

www.pbase.com

[email protected]

 

[Jonathan Brady]

DSLR top ML is manual transmission to automatic.

Good point ... when was the last time you saw a new car w/ "manual" transmission ???

Yesterday. Outside the US there are still more manual boxes sold than automatic. You should try to base your ideas on evidence rather than your localised personal feelings.

C'mon. I think you're being a little harsh. We all live in the world we experience and not all of us are fortunate enough to experience much of the world beyond a few miles of our home. On top of that, there's SO much information available now that no one could be expected to know everything. And what one may consider to be "common knowledge" another may not be interested in at all and have only their experience to guide them.

Also... you misspelled "localized".

Random, non-photography-related post from here on out...

According to this article which references data from Edmunds.com, only 20% of all cars offered for sale in the US are offered with either an automatic or manual transmission. But, of all cars sold in 2018 in the US, only 2% are manual transmission. Even the budget models from Kia, those which you might expect to have a higher percentage of manual transmissions, only sell manual transmissions in 4% of their vehicles (which is admittedly double the national average but still a paltry sum).

This author theorizes that the recent ban on gas and diesel in the UK, set to go into effect in 2040, will be the nail in the coffin for manual transmissions there (electric cars only have one gear due to the fact that maximum torque is immediately and consistently available). He posits that the trend pointing towards the proliferation and dominance of automatic transmissions is occurring independent of that legislation, however, as the percentage of cars sold with automatic transmissions has increased from 24.7% to 37.7% in 5 years (2012 to 2017).

Random story...

When I first graduated from college (aka: University), I worked for a car rental company and a woman came in to rent a car while her Mercedes was being serviced. She insisted on the cheapest car we had. That car, and all cars in the fleet, had an automatic transmission. However, she was aghast that we had the audacity to give her a car with manual windows. She wasn't thrilled with the manual door locks or AM/FM radio either. The story should stop there but when she returned, she was a totally different person. Her kids HAD A BLAST manually rolling the windows up and down and manually locking and unlocking the doors. She said it reminded her of her childhood and also allowed her an opportunity to illustrate to her kids how fortunate they were to be surrounded by luxury products their entire lives.

 

[Jonathan Brady]

Maybe they love it!

Probably depends on their ego as some may associate the noise with interest (which they may conflate with importance).

I could put a name on that right now, but no need to inflame the thread.

I think we're on the same page, my friend... :-D