Statistics derived from serial numbers

[MrNHB]

I just want to know what serial numbers are Nik USA and which are grey market

For camera bodies (but only a very few pre Z lenses) USA has its own serial number sequence.

So what are they?

 

[Leonard Shepherd]

So what are they?

They are the ones recorded at http://photosynthesis.co.nz

This site is widely regarded as the worlds leading web source of Nikon Lens and body specifications going back to when Nikon first started making them.

 

[MrNHB]

So what are they?

They are the ones recorded at http://photosynthesis.co.nz

This site is widely regarded as the worlds leading web source of Nikon Lens and body specifications going back to when Nikon first started making them.

Yes, that site has been around for a long time but it lacks important information.

I want to know if a lens is Nikon USA or greymarket. It affects resale value, warranty and if the item will be repaired by Nikon USA.

 

[Leonard Shepherd]

Yes, that site has been around for a long time but it lacks important information.

As far as I know Nikon does not release the information you would like - which is hardly the fault of the photosynthesis site

I want to know if a lens is Nikon USA or greymarket. It affects resale value, warranty and if the item will be repaired by Nikon USA.

A few lenses such as the 50mm AF-s f1.4 start with a 6 for official USA instead of the usual 2.

Beyond this some sources suggest submitting a serial number to USA if an official USA warranty for a specific lens is not available.

When I buy new Nikon I keep the Nikon Europe warranty detail to pass to a possible new owner.

 

[shuncheung]

I want to know if a lens is Nikon USA or greymarket. It affects resale value, warranty and if the item will be repaired by Nikon USA.

A few lenses such as the 50mm AF-s f1.4 start with a 6 for official USA instead of the usual 2.

Beyond this some sources suggest submitting a serial number to USA if an official USA warranty for a specific lens is not available.

When I buy new Nikon I keep the Nikon Europe warranty detail to pass to a possible new owner.

We have said it a couple of times that for Nikon Z lenses, there is no way to tell the intended market based on the serial number alone. If you are the original buyer of a Nikon USA lens, you should hold onto the original warranty card from Nikon USA. If you are buying a used lens, you should ask the seller to provide the original warranty card; if they are unable to do so, assume it is gray market and offer a lower price. BTW it won't affect any warranty because Nikon USA warranty only extends to the original purchaser, at least officially. Once the lens is sold to a second-hand owner, any unexpired warranty also ends immediately.

For some F-mount lenses, they have the US prefix in front of the serial numbers, but there is not the case for all Z-mount lenses as far as I know. Below is an F-mount 80-400mm AF-S VR zoom.


Note the US prefix

 

[HyperCypher]

Everything points to the fact that for the vast majority cell phone cameras have eliminated the use of dedicated cameras. That tech is a has been for most people

Why the major companies have not figured out a 1 button “send to my cell phone” routine is a head scratcher. You know “, select a picture, push the button” and in seconds its in your cell.



I doubt it would make even a small dent in the overall trend, but it sure would help a company like Nikon add a feature that would help them hold or increase mkt share among their direct competition.

 

[chambeshi]

Anyone who believes the D500 is not a Nikon success has to produce the evidence.

https://nikonrumors.com/2019/06/26/nikon-dslr-camera-sales-figures-estimations.aspx/

Here are some of the estimated sales totals as of April 2019

1. D850 - $244,091,100
2. D500 - $221,518,000
3. D1 - $188,757,241
4. D3400 - $185,759,600
5. D3X - $185,264,000
6. D4S - $181,246,000
7. Df - $158,925,188
8. D5 - $152,295,00

Excerpt from

https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/62580047

With respect, that's not so much 'evidence' as guesswork and speculation based on very incomplete and questionable data. It might be right/close to correct, but it's not evidence. Evidence is fact, not guesswork.

Actually these are real data and underestimates of global totals.

The Bottom Line is the tempo and mode of registrations on Photosynthesis confirm persisting demand for the D500 and that its high sales underwriting sustained demand for the camera.

Evidence is facts combined with analyses

 

[Hal Wilson]

With respect, that's not so much 'evidence' as guesswork and speculation based on very incomplete and questionable data. It might be right/close to correct, but it's not evidence. Evidence is fact, not guesswork.

Actually these are real data and underestimates of global totals.

Well they aren't; they are 'estimations'. Based on a not particularly scientific manner of data-gathering. And we cannot verify if the data is actually real anyway. Only Nikon can. And they haven't released such data. So we cannot see the figures quoted as 100% reliable.

Evidence is facts combined with analyses

Well no; evidence is simply that; analysis can be completely subjective. For eg; say a murder weapon is found near a person, and they are accused of that murder. The weapon is 'evidence'; subjective analysis can lead to a conviction for sure, but convictions aren't always justified. Other facts about the crime could have been missed. Fact is something that is 100% verifiably true. Many things are presented as facts when they actually aren't. Only facts are facts.

 

[chambeshi]

With respect, that's not so much 'evidence' as guesswork and speculation based on very incomplete and questionable data. It might be right/close to correct, but it's not evidence. Evidence is fact, not guesswork.

Actually these are real data and underestimates of global totals.

Well they aren't; they are 'estimations'.

The totals of registered products are indeed estimations of the true populations

Based on a not particularly scientific manner of data-gathering. And we cannot verify if the data is actually real anyway.

You are entitled to dismiss the Photosynthesis database in its entirety

Only Nikon can. And they haven't released such data. So we cannot see the figures quoted as 100% reliable.

Uncertainty characterizes all data

Evidence is facts combined with analyses

In revisiting my post, correct my mistake

Evidence is data combined with analyses

Well no; evidence is simply that; analysis can be completely subjective. For eg; say a murder weapon is found near a person, and they are accused of that murder. The weapon is 'evidence'; subjective analysis can lead to a conviction for sure, but convictions aren't always justified. Other facts about the crime could have been missed. Fact is something that is 100% verifiably true. Many things are presented as facts when they actually aren't.

All analyses have a subjective bias. However, consilience minimizes Type 2 errors

Only facts are facts.

Well yes

 

[Hal Wilson]

With respect, that's not so much 'evidence' as guesswork and speculation based on very incomplete and questionable data. It might be right/close to correct, but it's not evidence. Evidence is fact, not guesswork.

Actually these are real data and underestimates of global totals.

Well they aren't; they are 'estimations'.

The totals of registered products are indeed estimations of the true populations

Based on a not particularly scientific manner of data-gathering. And we cannot verify if the data is actually real anyway.

You are entitled to dismiss the Photosynthesis database in its entirety

I have no reason to believe it to be true or untrue, tbh. I think it might be an indication of something, but little more.

Only Nikon can. And they haven't released such data. So we cannot see the figures quoted as 100% reliable.

Uncertainty characterizes all data

Well, no. You can have data and total certainty. That's what science strives towards.

Evidence is facts combined with analyses

In revisiting my post, correct my mistake

Evidence is data combined with analyses

No; evidence is just evidence. Evidence merely suggests something. The bloody knife next to a body might be the murder weapon, but it might not be. At that point, it's just evidence. Such evidence can be collected and then analysed, and hopefully the facts established.

Well no; evidence is simply that; analysis can be completely subjective. For eg; say a murder weapon is found near a person, and they are accused of that murder. The weapon is 'evidence'; subjective analysis can lead to a conviction for sure, but convictions aren't always justified. Other facts about the crime could have been missed. Fact is something that is 100% verifiably true. Many things are presented as facts when they actually aren't.

All analyses have a subjective bias.

Again no; you can have a completely objective analysis. Stick your hand in a fire and you'll have a completely objective analysis that fire burns.

However, consilience minimizes Type 2 errors

This sounds very clever I'm sure, but is irrelevant here.

Only facts are facts.

Well yes

I'm glad we agree on that.

 

[Barleyman]

Everything points to the fact that for the vast majority cell phone cameras have eliminated the use of dedicated cameras. That tech is a has been for most people

Why the major companies have not figured out a 1 button “send to my cell phone” routine is a head scratcher. You know “, select a picture, push the button” and in seconds its in your cell.

I doubt it would make even a small dent in the overall trend, but it sure would help a company like Nikon add a feature that would help them hold or increase mkt share among their direct competition

I use SnapBridge for that. Works perfectly. I set it to sync, via bluetooth, every photo I take. I can then instantly share.

 

[Leonard Shepherd]

Only facts are facts.

Well yes

I'm glad we agree on that.

For me the value of the photo-synthesis site is it provides often useful information - not available anywhere else without paying substantial money.

A problem with "facts" is road signing across a city may be based on the direction the city authorities want you to take, and an official weather forecast may not be accurate.

It took Nikon a long, long, long time to replace the D300 with the D500 – and so far it seems to be taking just as long for a currently mythical Z 500 to be announced.

While the D500 was not a top seller in terms of numbers sold, this is something it is reasonable IMO to apply to most higher priced products.

In the real world I would buy a Z500 (with an appropriate specification for me) if or when Nikon makes one. In the meantime I enjoy taking photos with the camera gear I own.

 

[Hal Wilson]

Only facts are facts.

Well yes

I'm glad we agree on that.

For me the value of the photo-synthesis site is it provides often useful information - not available anywhere else without paying substantial money.

A problem with "facts" is road signing across a city may be based on the direction the city authorities want you to take, and an official weather forecast may not be accurate.

I'm struggling to see the connection there. A fact is something that is real, tangible, provable. My point about the use of the word 'evidence' in relation to the estimations of camera sales, is that whilst they are data, they can't be considered evidence in the absence of any other information. For eg; the serial numbers collected are probably from a very tiny proportion of all camera owners, and none of us know how Nikon actually number their cameras from market to market. So there's no way of verifying if the figures are anywhere near the truth. The real numbers could be wildly different. We'd need to see data collected from a much wider field, and some sort of verification that these numbers do in fact relate to actual camera sales. I mean, they might well do, I'm not arguing any differently. But we can't prove it. And until there is proof/verification, there are no facts.

 

[chambeshi]

Only facts are facts.

Well yes

I'm glad we agree on that.

For me the value of the photo-synthesis site is it provides often useful information - not available anywhere else without paying substantial money.

A problem with "facts" is road signing across a city may be based on the direction the city authorities want you to take, and an official weather forecast may not be accurate.

It took Nikon a long, long, long time to replace the D300 with the D500 – and so far it seems to be taking just as long for a currently mythical Z 500 to be announced.

While the D500 was not a top seller in terms of numbers sold, this is something it is reasonable IMO to apply to most higher priced products.

In the real world I would buy a Z500 (with an appropriate specification for me) if or when Nikon makes one. In the meantime I enjoy taking photos with the camera gear I own.

Leonard, you likely know this article by Thom. The regional system Nikon used to assign serial numbers to its DSLRs is well known, and it's reliable as to provenance for the primary regions with Nikon subsidiaries.

Nikon Camera Serial Numbers | DSLRBodies | Thom Hogan

Nikon DSLR camera serial number meaning

www.dslrbodies.com

We've relied upon the Photosynthesis data in several productive cases to track production of new Nikkors, which were backordered for months due to high demand. There are several threads here tracking the 500 PF, 800 PF and recently the 180-600

@shuncheung has been a primary OP in these exercises, which extended across a sequence of threads. As I recall, we derived a fairly reliable estimate for production of the 800 PF at ~7000 units/month. Apparently the factory manufacturing the Phase-fresnel elements has only a single proprietary machine (apparatus) for this high precision operation that is unique to Nikon.

 

[shuncheung]

For me the value of the photo-synthesis site is it provides often useful information - not available anywhere else without paying substantial money.

A problem with "facts" is road signing across a city may be based on the direction the city authorities want you to take, and an official weather forecast may not be accurate.

It took Nikon a long, long, long time to replace the D300 with the D500 – and so far it seems to be taking just as long for a currently mythical Z 500 to be announced.

While the D500 was not a top seller in terms of numbers sold, this is something it is reasonable IMO to apply to most higher priced products.

In the real world I would buy a Z500 (with an appropriate specification for me) if or when Nikon makes one. In the meantime I enjoy taking photos with the camera gear I own.

Leonard, you likely know this article by Thom. The regional system Nikon used to assign serial numbers to its DSLRs is well known, and it's reliable as to provenance for the primary regions with Nikon subsidiaries.

https://www.dslrbodies.com/cameras/camera-articles/nikon-dslr-notes/nikon-camera-serial-numbers.html

We've relied upon the Photosynthesis data in several productive cases to track production of new Nikkors, which were backordered for months due to high demand. There are several threads here tracking the 500 PF, 800 PF and recently the 180-600

@shuncheung has been a primary OP in these exercises, which extended across a sequence of threads. As I recall, we derived a fairly reliable estimate for production of the 800 PF at ~7000 units/month. Apparently the factory manufacturing the Phase-fresnel elements has only a single proprietary machine (apparatus) for this high precision operation that is unique to Nikon.

Roland Vink @ Photo Synthesis in New Zealand provides useful information, but I am afraid that his serial number sources are mostly in the English-speaking world, such as the UK, US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and perhaps a few former British colonies such as Singapore, Hong Kong ... and perhaps some people from continental Europe. That is all fine for Nikon lenses since there is only one set of S/N per lens model world wide. For camera bodies, since the S/N are continent/country coded, I am sure Roland is missing a lot of data from countries such as Japan and China. With no fault from Roland Vink's part, using his S/N to estimate the number of Z bodies sold is simply wrong. That is why I am not participating in the discussion on this thread.

For a few items that were in major shortage at launch, such as the F-mount 500mm/f5.6 PF, Z9, 800mm/f6.3 PF and 180-600mm zoom, Leonard and I started a few threads to track the progression of those S/N. For the Z9, the S/N had a jump by around 10K all of a sudden, for both Europe and the US. If one is unaware of such sudden changes, your estimates will be far off base.

For PF lenses, according to my local (California) Nikon rep Jeff Mitchell, Nikon has only one machine set up to produce those PF elements, and the set up cost is US$7M. Therefore it is not economical for Nikon to have a second set up to double that production. I think for the 500mm PF back in 2018/2019, we estimated that production was around 500 units a month. It took about a year before that lens to become in stock.

For the 800mm/f6.3 PF, I think the initial production was slow, about 300 a month, but apparently Nikon responded to the initial high demand and increased PF production. However, it takes around 8, 9 months to fabricate a PF element. The supply increase suddenly jumped months later and cleared the backlog. Alex Cxxx's graph shows the 800mm PF supply very well for its first year in production: https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/66999885

 

[CNorre]

Everything points to the fact that for the vast majority cell phone cameras have eliminated the use of dedicated cameras. That tech is a has been for most people

Why the major companies have not figured out a 1 button “send to my cell phone” routine is a head scratcher. You know “, select a picture, push the button” and in seconds its in your cell.

I doubt it would make even a small dent in the overall trend, but it sure would help a company like Nikon add a feature that would help them hold or increase mkt share among their direct competition

I use SnapBridge for that. Works perfectly. I set it to sync, via bluetooth, every photo I take. I can then instantly share.

Dont use the feature often, but for, for instance, family birthdays or similar events, it's nice to just be able to send the 8mp files directly from the phone with very few steps to the attendees as you leave the door.

 

[Leonard Shepherd]

A fact is something that is real, tangible, provable. My point about the use of the word 'evidence' in relation to the estimations of camera sales, is that whilst they are data, they can't be considered evidence in the absence of any other information.

Police work can provide a reasonable comparison basis - as in "The evidence as we understand it" helps determine police decisions.

There are no other freely available sources other than photo-synthesis providing information relating to the number of Nikon camera products sold.

The percentage of Nikon sales to various territories is regularly detailed in their annual accounts.

While the percentages will vary between territories and products, reasonable deductions - the basis of many decisions - can be made.

I agree caution is needed - as in "he said she told me ---" is both evidence and fact - though not necessarily the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

For eg; the serial numbers collected are probably from a very tiny proportion of all camera owners,

So?

Opinion polls, traffic flows etc etc are based on samples from a small percentage or voters or drivers - and provide useful information.

and none of us know how Nikon actually number their cameras from market to market. t we can't prove it.

This information is readily available for bodies though not for lenses.

 

[CNorre]

For eg; the serial numbers collected are probably from a very tiny proportion of all camera owners,

So?

Opinion polls, traffic flows etc etc are based on samples from a small percentage or voters or drivers - and provide useful information.

and none of us know how Nikon actually number their cameras from market to market. t we can't prove it.

This information is readily available for bodies though not for lenses.

The beauty of statistics, you don't need the entire population measured and counted to get useful information, but one ought to be cautious and aware of the data sets limitations before drawing conclusions in stone.

As to how Nikon numbers their bodies, that seems to be well-known for their different markets, at least first digit. My question though, do they lump the latter numbers after marked segregation or is that also separated, anyone knows this? I guess the latter.

 

[shuncheung]

As to how Nikon numbers their bodies, that seems to be well-known for their different markets, at least first digit. My question though, do they lump the latter numbers after marked segregation or is that also separated, anyone knows this? I guess the latter.

As far as I know, Nikon Z serial numbers are all distinct for different countries/continents. We have seen one report here that there is a S/N 30abcde and a 60abcde for the same camera model. That is, the last 6 digits are identical. But of course, that is merely based on a post here. I have not verified the correctness of the info from that post.

 

[Leonard Shepherd]

My question though, do they lump the latter numbers after marked segregation or is that also separated, anyone knows this? I guess the latter.

Why guess?

Look at the numbers on the photo-synthesis site for the answer ;-)