Some implication of a new Panasonic FF

[mferencz]

The Olympus decision makers from years ago that flip your so called switch are dead. Long dead in fact. Olympus is not a living breathing old man you can look to his youth to figure his future. That's nonsense. Personally Nikon playing it safe with Z let's the pack get neck and neck. Panasonic Ff will be in that pack, and they with Sony will take market share. Nikon meant something 30 years ago. Now it's just another name in a field up equals.

 

[jwilliams]

First off, this is not some knee-jerk response by Panasonic and Olympus, but part of a well thought out strategy.

More like a realization of the current camera market.

M4/3 is still and will continue to be the primary platform, you know the one that uses the "withering on the vine " 4/3 sensor and flash protocol from circa 2003 and mount from 2008. Yes, that one.

Despite all the posting hype, 35mmFF ILC unit sales represent well below 20% of the total ILC market (12-15 depending upon source).

So it was and still is essential for Olympus and Panasonic to "ground" the "crop" sensor MILC market. Olympus, with its strong presence in Japan, has done better here, but jointly with Panasonic they have a worldwide combined unit market share larger than that of Sony and growing (recent m4/3 models are doing much better versus Sony A6300(no IBIS)/A6500 even with heavy price discounting by Sony). They need to continue this trend adding new users and targeting crossover users of Pentax and Fuji.

Secondly, M4/3 is alive and well positioned moving forward.

Alive yes. The future is murky at best. Camera body choice has steadily dwindled if you have not noticed. Lens choice has expanded, but only in one direction, which is bigger and more expensive. An attempt to compete with FF. Hopefully Panny will put some micro back in m43 in the future, but I think for the near future, m43 development efforts will be modest at best.

Remember Samsung came out with their best camera ever just before giving up. Not saying it will happen to m43, but it happened to them when they just introduced a camera, which by all accounts, was sort of groundbreaking for the time.

The next major "breakthrough" in this segment will be the arrival of global sensor tech but it will be expensive.

I can't even remember how many years I have been hearing that one.

M4/3 is strongly and uniquely positioned to take advantage of this sensor tech based on sensor size/yield/cost (this will be a HUGE advantage vs. APS-C and 35mmFF for quite some time) and technology/features (IBIS, HiRes Shot, Focus Stacking, Live Composite) and more...

Anyone who thinks a Sony A7 Mark IV is coming with a global sensor and new EVF for $1999 (we can share a laugh together offline) can quit dreaming as of right now...ain't gonna happen.

An E-M1 Mark III with a global sensor, new EVF, new IBIS, for a little north of 2K...I wouldn't bet against it.

Now Sony went the opposite direction and bet primarily on FF, thinking Canon and Nikon would be reluctant to upset their DSLR hegemony. Sony was correct, but the problem for Sony is not many FE body consumers are purchasing native FE lenses. As large and rich an entity as Sony is they can't give away their lenses for "free" after already using price as a lever for their MILC bodies (big problem). Sony has enlisted the help of Sigma, but I feel it is too much, too little, too late...time will tell.

IMHO, Sony A7III is a desperation move, much-hyped, yes, but not repeatable nor profitably sustainable (see above comment about global sensors).

This is just a silly statement. Very silly.

Canon, Nikon and now Panasonic will take 35mmFF market share away from Sony just by virtue of blind brand loyalty regardless of technology and features. Others will decide based on backward-compatibility of lenses and accessories, ergonomics, colour science, support.

2019 is going to be an interesting year for sure.

That I will agree with.

Cheers.

 

[arbux]

I'm with you on that. Think of all that attractively priced

Yet to see it fro m43

and first class used MFT gear available, combined with heavy competition in FF mirrorless.

If this all happens as rumoured, then the debates about forum structure and where to post about what are going to get pretty heated.

Andrew

Used EM1.1?

Well, is it better than used a7rii or used nikon d600?

--
Infinite are the arguments of mages. Truth is a jewel with many facets. Ursula K LeGuin

 

[ahaslett]

I'm with you on that. Think of all that attractively priced

Yet to see it fro m43

and first class used MFT gear available, combined with heavy competition in FF mirrorless.

If this all happens as rumoured, then the debates about forum structure and where to post about what are going to get pretty heated.

Andrew

Used EM1.1?

Well, is it better than used a7rii or used nikon d600?

 

[Pixnat2]

Here are some initial thoughts. I think it is very likely they will use the SL mount, it immediately opens up a lens suite that ISNT very expensive for the video crowd, and with a high end video centric body they are off the ground running with a good selection.

This is beneficial to Leica as their bodies don't do great video, but they do make great lenses.

However the flange back distance is only 1/4mm different, so the Leica lenses wouldn;t be adaptable to the GH5 etc. This would mean a complete departure from the m43rds mount.

Having said that Panasonic's issue with video is actually very little to do with sensor size, and much more to do with their lack of a well developed PDAF like Sony or Canon for video (there are much lower expectations for video AF on Olympus bodies). So with Canon bringing DPAF to their mirrorless FF and Sony with a well developed OS-PDAF Panasonic should have something ready there to answer what will be some very pointed first questions about their FF body.

Now where does this leave Olympus? Could they produce a FF OM that works with Sony's mount? Designed like an OMD, they already have lenses lined up as Patents but they would be entering a well established mount and competing with Sigma, Sony and Zeiss to sell lenses. So not really a great move.

However there are far more users of cropped sensors than FF sensors in the world. Olympus has a well developed lens line-up. Could this mean Olympus produces a no-holds barred body with their next swing.

Using the full potential of the processing and IBIS to have

• superb Log video off sensor with some scopes feature
• a version of a hand held high res (possibly more software driven).
• Their OS-PDAF taken to a competing level for both stills and video
• MP could be more at the 30-40MP mark
• 14bit RAW file availability

So in other words, Panasonic goes head to head with the FF format, while Olympus then attacks the crop format makers (panasonic included). In a diminishing market that is a very good move as you are more likely to scoop up buyers from other brands than any other growth strategy, and the perception Panasonic is leaving the mount would need to be countered by a strong statement from Olympus.

As a finishing note, there will be a lot of hand-wringing on the forums about the demise of the format. I am a working photographer and produce work for multinationals in all fields. This format is a choice for me thanks to the diverse technology available for my lenses (GH and black magic for video, Olympus high res for product, food, architecture and interior etc.) Panasonic having a FF body doesn't even make me blink, if I choose to move formats in the future (Say Olympus decides to fo FF as well) I will have earned more money with my current gear and by the time I move formats pricing will be that much more competitive.

Exciting times ahead. I am very very curious to see what Olympus produces to respond to these market shifts.

Interesting thoughts.

It seems they will choose a new mount according the the latest "rumors", so Olympus will probably be in.

I think what might suprise us positively is the sensor technology that they will use.

The probability of an organic sensor with global shutter is there, and that woud give a substantial advantage against competitors.

If the technology is ready, it could benefits m4/3 greatly too.

I agree, exciting times ahead!

--
Cheers,
Frederic
http://www.azurphoto.com/

 

[Raist3d]

the economies of scale and R&D money poured into the FF mirrorless segment.

 

[Richandhiscat]

People seem to forget, in their worries about m4/3 dying, that Panasonic currently produces cameras using 3 different sensor sizes, Canon 4, Nikon 3. So why shouldn't that continue, with Panasonic producing 4, especially as lenses can be used with adapters on two systems. Each format has its niche (or should/can have) and the technology overlaps anyway.

 

[traveler_101]

In reality they have released three top shelf lenses in 12 months with 1 more coming 12mm F1.2 it doesn't look like they are abandoning the mount any time soon.

Nah. Once the transition to something new begins, m4/3 will recede as briskly into the past as 4/3, OM, and half-frame SLRs did before it.

Recent events question your lens argument. Look to Nikon, which released its very best F-mount lenses to date--the $2000 28mm f/1.4E and $2400 105mm f/1.4E primes--within a year or so of last week's Z-mount introduction. Go only one more year back and you find the latest revisions of staple pro lenses like the $2400 70-200 f/2.8E FL and the $2000 24-70 f/2.8E. Hell, they released a new 500mm phase-freznel F-mount tele on the day of the Z-mount introduction.

A cursory search back into the Nikon forums of a few months ago will reveal 25 people writing exactly what you wrote above--"in reality Nikon released a $15,000 suite of stunning professional f-mount lenses in the last 18 months; of course they won't be abandoning the F-mount any time soon!"

Cue the sad trombones on that one.

Perhaps you could wage a semantic argument about what "abandonment" means? Yah, Nikon will still make F-mount cameras for a while. I mean, technically, Nikon hasn't even abandoned film SLRs yet; you can still buy a brand-new F6. But how many people do? When engineering and marketing interests shift, customers often follow en masse. It's gonna happen quickly in Nikonworld, the shift from F to Z, even with those beautiful new F-mount lens designs on the market for those of us who remain a little while.

Why would it play out any differently in Olympusworld? It certainly didn't during the 4/3 to m4/3 re-invention. Some people were loud and huffy about "abandonment," they'd just invested in incredible f/2 SHG zooms; but in the end the transition happened quickly.

Things progress and move on, now faster than ever before. And Olympus, particularly, has a history of "moving on" more often than most. It's what they do. And you will too. A year from now you'll be the forum's loudest and most staunch defender of the newest Olympus larger-format system. Come on, man. We all know you'll be the first out of the gate with the bullet-point list of why it's better than anything from Canon to Hasselblad, whatever it is. You'll roll with it.

To which I say, have fun and good on ya.

I think this is an astute analysis - though I would say something like the "toxic mix of engineering and marketing" rather than simply mentioning how those two aspects of the camera business work together as a merger of "interests". What a nauseating view of human life to see marketing as an interest - and engineering disconnected from art and life is not much better. But of course that's matter of ones values. In large part I agree with what you are saying about the impact of technical innovation on people's buying habits.

Where I disagree is on the implication that everyone will come along in this grand parade. M43 has always been little different. Many of us are devoted to small cameras . Perhaps we are satisfied with what we have and may wish to hang on to m43 gear for a long time. Some of us have other interests (film for example) and may choose to go in that direction. Have to wait and see.

 

[jano50]

Pana has to come with a big boom, otherwise their entry to the FF market will not be recognized behind Canikon.

My bet: GH5 body (too keep accessories) with new mount and their own >40mpix sensor with 8k video. They will have an EF adapter with full functionality (like on their AU-EVA1 camera) to make sure that the video guys can start using the camera from the beginning. An adapter for MFT (crop x2) would only make sense with a sensor >60mpix, so I think the chance is low for this. I`m pretty sure the camera will have PDAF otherwise it doesn`t have a chance in the competition.

I think Oly will join the club sooner or later, since the MFT (with the actual sensor tech) reaches its limits and they have to keep their engineers busy.

Further implication could be, that the new sensor tech comes down to MFT (>24mpix, PDAF) in 2-3 years, giving it a new momentum. I believe the MFT is a great size/weight alternative and slowly it will gain an ever more solid user base. Not everyone needs >40mpix and not everyone is ready to carry the big/heavy FF glass... And this is not going to change.

 

[Mark Ransom]

No, I didn't know. Thanks for the eye opener.

 

[MrALLCAPS]

I think it will be the Leica mount, which I've stated in the past. It would be easier for them to have tier pricing for their lenses. The Leica lenses, Leica/Panasonic lenses and just Panasonic lenses.

I also think Olympus is forced to stand pat with M43 as I believe they took a hit in their last two fiscal Years and there is no budget that allows them to pursue a full frame or any kind of new mount/sensor system.

I wouldn't be surprised if Olympus goes the Sigma route, designing and making lenses for the likes of Sony. That would help their Camera division stay afloat.

 

[PlumShots]

First off, this is not some knee-jerk response by Panasonic and Olympus, but part of a well thought out strategy.

More like a realization of the current camera market.

We'll see … time will tell.

Personally, I think m4/3 in general and Olympus in particular is best positioned moving forward.

M4/3 is still and will continue to be the primary platform, you know the one that uses the "withering on the vine " 4/3 sensor and flash protocol from circa 2003 and mount from 2008. Yes, that one.

Despite all the posting hype, 35mmFF ILC unit sales represent well below 20% of the total ILC market (12-15 depending upon source).

So it was and still is essential for Olympus and Panasonic to "ground" the "crop" sensor MILC market. Olympus, with its strong presence in Japan, has done better here, but jointly with Panasonic they have a worldwide combined unit market share larger than that of Sony and growing (recent m4/3 models are doing much better versus Sony A6300(no IBIS)/A6500 even with heavy price discounting by Sony). They need to continue this trend adding new users and targeting crossover users of Pentax and Fuji.

Secondly, M4/3 is alive and well positioned moving forward.

Alive yes. The future is murky at best. Camera body choice has steadily dwindled if you have not noticed. Lens choice has expanded, but only in one direction, which is bigger and more expensive. An attempt to compete with FF. Hopefully Panny will put some micro back in m43 in the future, but I think for the near future, m43 development efforts will be modest at best.

Remember Samsung came out with their best camera ever just before giving up. Not saying it will happen to m43, but it happened to them when they just introduced a camera, which by all accounts, was sort of groundbreaking for the time.

The next major "breakthrough" in this segment will be the arrival of global sensor tech but it will be expensive.

I can't even remember how many years I have been hearing that one.

Good for you, however, I suggest you keep your eyes and ears open and close to the ground over the next few months.

Things are going to move fast.

M4/3 is strongly and uniquely positioned to take advantage of this sensor tech based on sensor size/yield/cost (this will be a HUGE advantage vs. APS-C and 35mmFF for quite some time) and technology/features (IBIS, HiRes Shot, Focus Stacking, Live Composite) and more...

Anyone who thinks a Sony A7 Mark IV is coming with a global sensor and new EVF for $1999 (we can share a laugh together offline) can quit dreaming as of right now...ain't gonna happen.

An E-M1 Mark III with a global sensor, new EVF, new IBIS, for a little north of 2K...I wouldn't bet against it.

Now Sony went the opposite direction and bet primarily on FF, thinking Canon and Nikon would be reluctant to upset their DSLR hegemony. Sony was correct, but the problem for Sony is not many FE body consumers are purchasing native FE lenses. As large and rich an entity as Sony is they can't give away their lenses for "free" after already using price as a lever for their MILC bodies (big problem). Sony has enlisted the help of Sigma, but I feel it is too much, too little, too late...time will tell.

IMHO, Sony A7III is a desperation move, much-hyped, yes, but not repeatable nor profitably sustainable (see above comment about global sensors).

This is just a silly statement. Very silly.

My opinion is no more silly than is your opinion … each counts as one vote … and is a veritable "raindrop in the sea of total opinion" and more importantly...market reality.

We'll see … time will tell.

I stand by comments and statement about price of an E-M1-like camera with global shutter versus a Sony A7 III-like camera (or any FF camera) with global shutter as well as overall strategic approach.

Canon, Nikon and now Panasonic will take 35mmFF market share away from Sony just by virtue of blind brand loyalty regardless of technology and features. Others will decide based on backward-compatibility of lenses and accessories, ergonomics, colour science, support.

2019 is going to be an interesting year for sure.

That I will agree with.

:-D At least we agree on something … Cheers.

Cheers.