Should Fuji go FF? (instead of MF)

It will happen it is just that you don’t want it to happen and neither I nor you have control or proof over What will transpire
We can agree on the last part of your comment... neither you or I have any control. As far as your certainty that it will happen, I see no evidence at all to support your contention... I think it’s more just wishful thinking on your part and nothing more. Fuji has done a terrific job of bracketing their competition with MF on the high end and crop on the low end. They remain extremely competitive in the segments they’ve targeted. At this point, going head to head with Canon and Nikon in FF makes zero sense strategically.

As I said, just because you want it doesn’t make it either a good idea or likely. Beyond that, we can simply agree to disagree.
I never stated that I want it to happen and just because you don't want it doesn’t make it either a good idea or unlikely.
Why don’t you try rereading what I said. You stated “it will happen” with no evidence to support it. I simply said that there’s nothing to suggest that Fuji will head down that path and a lot of indicators (starting with their strong commitment to both crop and MF) that they probably won’t. What I want has nothing to do with this. Actually, I’m quite happy with Fuji’s direction and think their strategy is spot on. I’m simply stating strong disagreement with your contention that Fuji will somehow inevitably go with FF. If that’s your opinion... fine, but there’s absolutely nothing I’ve seen that supports it.

Maybe that’s a bit clearer?

Oh, and isn’t the horse dead yet. It’s certainly been beaten enough. :-)

--
Jerry-Astro
Fujifilm X Forum Co-Mod
 
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Hey Fez, I know what it is like to make unprovable proclamations on this Board. I have done it several times. The difference between you and me is that I am right (well, except for maybe a couple of times, but that is another story 😁) and you are wrong.

For example, I am 100% right when I proclaim, "The XT line will have IBIS on all models after the XT-3. Fuji will figure it out because they have to."

You, on the other hand, are 100% wrong when you proclaim that Fuji will go FF. That will never happen. In fact, it will never even come close to happening. They are not even slightly considering such a move in their future strategy.

Why? Because Fuji has proven repeatedly that they are not idiots.

Greg Johnson, San Antonio, Texas
 
I think it’s more just wishful thinking on your part and nothing more.
I never wished nor asked as you state here
Here's your earlier statement:

"It will happen it is just that you don’t want it to happen and neither I nor you have control or proof over What will transpire"

That's what I'm taking difference with -- wishful thinking or not. There is no evidence whatsoever to support this contention. Whether it's "wishful thinking" or simply what I regard as a completely unfounded opinion, IMHO it would be a bad idea and consume resources that would best be spent on continuing to build their crop and MF lines.

If you see it differently, great. Let's see your data. My opinion is based on the heavy investments Fuji is making in crop and MF. They seem very focused on those product lines. I'm seeing no one with any credibility forecasting that they will also move into FF.
 
I mean, would it hurt you or anybody else here in some possible way physically, mentally, emotionally, financially if Fuji made a FF??
At this point in time, most likely it would hurt Fuji financially.
Yup... to be blunt, IMHO, it would be a monumentally stupid move on their part and I just don't see that happening. They've carved out an excellent niche in places where the big guys don't want to play. Going head-to-head with them is NOT a recipe for success.

If FF is where you want to be, then you probably should be looking elsewhere. But you should be asking yourself whether that's simply due to a historical preference or a reasonable and assessment of the other alternatives that are available out there.
It will happen it is just that you don’t want it to happen and neither I nor you have control or proof over What will transpire
We can agree on the last part of your comment... neither you or I have any control. As far as your certainty that it will happen, I see no evidence at all to support your contention... I think it’s more just wishful thinking on your part and nothing more. Fuji has done a terrific job of bracketing their competition with MF on the high end and crop on the low end. They remain extremely competitive in the segments they’ve targeted. At this point, going head to head with Canon and Nikon in FF makes zero sense strategically.
No evidence? Why do you think everybody is moving to FF? Because there is a demand and prices have dropped dramatically in the FF world and that is what is becoming the standard, plus the fact that they will be selling like pancakes. Only a few years back ago I could only "dream" of owning FF gear, but man today it is dirt cheap.
As I said, just because you want it doesn’t make it either a good idea or likely. Beyond that, we can simply agree to disagree.
I agree that these are just your and our own ideas and there is nothing wrong with that:-)
 
You, on the other hand, are 100% wrong when you proclaim that Fuji will go FF. That will never happen. In fact, it will never even come close to happening. They are not even slightly considering such a move in their future strategy.
I think it is pretty clear that Fuji has no intention of going FF else they would not be spending money to develop a line of top end APS-C cameras, the XT, XH and XPro line along with a second tier less expensive line and a medium format line with a nice selection of lenses. Large sensor cost will be coming down because Moore's law still seems to be holding. Just look at the cost of the first digital cameras back in 2000. The 6 MP Nikon D100 cost more than the FF Nikon D750 and a lot more when you put them in same year dollars.

The 5 MP D1X cost over 5K when it was released in about 2000. The the D800 came in at 2 to 3 K several years ago. As the sensor cost goes down, the cameras get more and more capable.

We will see the same progression in the cost for medium format sensors as the foundries develop better processes and the yields go up as we have seen in FF. Large sensors have been made for years. They were special purpose and expensive because of the yields but the prices are coming down because the yields are improving. Fairchild imaging produced a 81 MP 4 inch by 4 inch sensor some years back so the technology is catching up. Of course Fuji knows this. Phase One is up to a 150 MP sensor that is 1.5 times the size of the GFX. Expensive sure - but the price will come down for the same capability as technology progresses.

The GFX is a nice camera. I look at it similar to the Mamiya 645 when it came out. Significantly better IQ than 35 mm but much more flexible than the classic 6x6 and 6x7 medium format systems. The 645 is actually quite flexible and can be uses in the studio, on the street or as a landscape camera. I often took y Mamiya 645 on the street. I look at the GFX similarly.

So I really don't see a FF in the Fuji plans. I think Greg is 100% right about a FF not being in the Fuji strategic plans.
Why? Because Fuji has proven repeatedly that they are not idiots.

Greg Johnson, San Antonio, Texas
https://www.flickr.com/photos/139148982@N02/albums
 
No evidence? Why do you think everybody is moving to FF? Because there is a demand and prices have dropped dramatically in the FF world and that is what is becoming the standard, plus the fact that they will be selling like pancakes. Only a few years back ago I could only "dream" of owning FF gear, but man today it is dirt cheap.
Umm, “everyone” isn’t moving to FF. Crop remains a popular format and I don’t see it dying away any time in the near future. Its inherent cost advantages will continue to enable a pricing gap between crop and FF gear, but I agree that the gap will likely be reduced somewhat as mirrorless moves into the FF world.

The question on the table is whether this makes sense for Fuji, not the broader camera market. Fuji has carved out a very nice niche, differentiating itself from the “big guys” with cameras whose performance ends up being quite close to FF (agree or disagree as you will) but at significantly more attractive prices. A decision by Fuji to dive in and compete with the “big guys” in this space just makes no sense IMHO, particularly when its products are already nicely differentiated and offer excellent price/performance. Bracketing FF with crop and MF strikes me as an excellent strategy. Wasting R&D resources to go head-to-head in the FF market rather than maintaining a strategy of product differentiation just makes zero sense to me.

Bottom line: if you see FF as the “holy grail,” your choices abound. Meanwhile, at the expense of sounding a bit “fanboyish”, I think Fuji’s strategy is spot on and hope they stay the course.
 
I mean, would it hurt you or anybody else here in some possible way physically, mentally, emotionally, financially if Fuji made a FF??
At this point in time, most likely it would hurt Fuji financially.
Yup... to be blunt, IMHO, it would be a monumentally stupid move on their part and I just don't see that happening. They've carved out an excellent niche in places where the big guys don't want to play. Going head-to-head with them is NOT a recipe for success.

If FF is where you want to be, then you probably should be looking elsewhere. But you should be asking yourself whether that's simply due to a historical preference or a reasonable and assessment of the other alternatives that are available out there.
It will happen it is just that you don’t want it to happen and neither I nor you have control or proof over What will transpire
We can agree on the last part of your comment... neither you or I have any control. As far as your certainty that it will happen, I see no evidence at all to support your contention... I think it’s more just wishful thinking on your part and nothing more. Fuji has done a terrific job of bracketing their competition with MF on the high end and crop on the low end. They remain extremely competitive in the segments they’ve targeted. At this point, going head to head with Canon and Nikon in FF makes zero sense strategically.
No evidence? Why do you think everybody is moving to FF? Because there is a demand and prices have dropped dramatically in the FF world and that is what is becoming the standard, plus the fact that they will be selling like pancakes. Only a few years back ago I could only "dream" of owning FF gear, but man today it is dirt cheap.
As I said, just because you want it doesn’t make it either a good idea or likely. Beyond that, we can simply agree to disagree.
I agree that these are just your and our own ideas and there is nothing wrong with that:-)
It doesn’t make any logical sense for Fuji, which isn’t a big camera company, to dump millions upon millions of dollars so they can only get a very very tiny percentage of the FF market. Why would Nikon, Canon, and Sony FF owners jump ship for Fuji if they went FF especially now since Nikon and Canon went into the mirrorless FF game?
 
Couple things;

Most folks that I know who aren't photography forum pixel peepers do not care about FF vs APSC. They only care about the photo.

One of my housemates is a pro photographer/lighting guy. He works with big name clients every week doing fashion, product and feature photography. He does this for a living and I am just a hobbyist. But when I have brought up nerdy photography topics such as this, he laughs. Him and his circle of photo production friends are more concerned with getting the lighting to work and dealing with #^%! demanding clients. Pretty much all cameras are good enough.

I'd also point out that the image quality difference between FF and APSC is not as great as it once was.

Really the main advantage of FF for most non-pro users, is that you can get that hip shallow depth of field look. Which is really great if you know what you are doing. If you don't, then you end up with half of someones face blurred. For a lot of folks the APSC, and it's not quite so shallow DOF, is more forgiving.

Is that the only reason to use FF? Of course not. But when I put my Fuji APSC photos next to my Canon FF photos I am not thinking that I am missing anything in terms of image quality, DR or color. I do think that the different cameras somehow have me taking different types of photos due to the divergent approaches of camera operation.
So true - if you can shoot in good light (natural or man-made) it doesn't really matter what you shoot with. A cell phone will give you amazing images if you have the right light in your exposure.

From a marketing perspective: Fujifilm has a big hole in the middle of the price range. Their APS-C range has a hard time transitioning users from their APS-C price range to their MF range.
But I am sure someone at Fuji has heard of Moore's law. The price of MF will come down where as the price APS-C is pretty close to being where it will be. Fuji seems to be in for the long run. If I were in my 30's today and doing what I was doing when I was 30 only with today's technology, I would have a GFX in a nanosecond. APS-C is gnawing away at FF from the bottom and MF prices will come down. Many a technologies have been caught in that squeeze. Take the former large computer company - Digital Equipment Corporation. The stakes out a market in "mini-computers." They were big enough to do a lot of things but inexpensive enough for every company to have them. They made a killing, then all of sudden as Moore's law kicked in - the PC platforms were gnawing away from below and what that once were considered super computers getting cheaper and cheaper.

DEC was going tits up and was bought by a PC company (Compaq Computer who was bought by AP). There are no DEC computers around today except in museums. Electronics is strange like that. FF today is a sweet spot but that sweet spot is going to change and APS-C closes the technical and IQ gap and medium format closes the cost gap.
Why would the technical gap close? All it needs to do is reach a point of sufficiency, which I would argue happened back in 2012. There has been relatively little real world IQ improvement since then, other than with phone sensors.

All the new tech is about faster readout, more AF points, etc. IQ is nearly stagnant.

As for the cost gap, unit sensor cost is a function of batch size as well as yield, not sensor tech. The reason why microprocessors get cheaper with smaller die sizes is because they get smaller. More chips per wafer, higher yield.

The same economy of scale principle does not apply to camera sensors.

BSI is far more expensive than FSI, but a large enough batch makes them economic. If Nikon order 20,000 D850 sensors, they will be a lot cheaper than if they order 1,000.

GFX sensor prices will come down when and if the market picks up and more people buy them. As it stands, the price ratio vs. FF is pretty high.
 
Bracketing FF with crop and MF strikes me as an excellent strategy. Wasting R&D resources to go head-to-head in the FF market rather than maintaining a strategy of product differentiation just makes zero sense to me.
Totally agree.
Bottom line: if you see FF as the “holy grail,” your choices abound. Meanwhile, at the expense of sounding a bit “fanboyish”, I think Fuji’s strategy is spot on and hope they stay the course.
I once thought FF was the "holy grail". My digital progression was Canon G3 --> Canon Rebel XTi--> Canon 5D2. I gave the Rebel to my son, who just gave it to his son to take to Paris while he spends a year doing Studies Abroad. I spent a little time with my grandson setting up the Rebel and it really isn't a bad little camera. I was reminded, though, of looking through its teeny viewfinder and then going FF. That and FF DOF were the big differences.

EVF fixes the viewfinder issue. DOF/Bokeh is no longer the big issue I thought it was (though I still love the 135L).

Fuji is staying the course with the wonderful X-H1 and the truly remarkable X-T3. I can't wait to see if the X-F50 R rumors turn out to be true.

I have tried not to be a fanboy, although I shot with Canon since 1971. I am also pretty devoted to my Leica M3, but just can't get into Leica digital. The Fuji reminds me of my love for my Leica and has made me teeter on becoming a fanboy convert.
 
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No evidence? Why do you think everybody is moving to FF? Because there is a demand and prices have dropped dramatically in the FF world and that is what is becoming the standard, plus the fact that they will be selling like pancakes. Only a few years back ago I could only "dream" of owning FF gear, but man today it is dirt cheap.
Umm, “everyone” isn’t moving to FF. Crop remains a popular format and I don’t see it dying away any time in the near future. Its inherent cost advantages will continue to enable a pricing gap between crop and FF gear, but I agree that the gap will likely be reduced somewhat as mirrorless moves into the FF world.
I never used the word "dying" and I don't see crop going away, that's not the point, plus you can also shoot crop with a FF for more reach if desire to use long lenses. You get both worlds.
The question on the table is whether this makes sense for Fuji, not the broader camera market. Fuji has carved out a very nice niche, differentiating itself from the “big guys” with cameras whose performance ends up being quite close to FF (agree or disagree as you will) but at significantly more attractive prices. A decision by Fuji to dive in and compete with the “big guys” in this space just makes no sense IMHO, particularly when its products are already nicely differentiated and offer excellent price/performance. Bracketing FF with crop and MF strikes me as an excellent strategy. Wasting R&D resources to go head-to-head in the FF market rather than maintaining a strategy of product differentiation just makes zero sense to me.

Bottom line: if you see FF as the “holy grail,” your choices abound. Meanwhile, at the expense of sounding a bit “fanboyish”, I think Fuji’s strategy is spot on and hope they stay the course.
 
I never used the word "dying" and I don't see crop going away, that's not the point, plus you can also shoot crop with a FF for more reach if desire to use long lenses. You get both worlds.
Sure you can crop a FF image, at the expense of resolution and detail. Could be a bad move if you want to print large. The fact remains (IMHO), that to remain successful, Fuji has to differentiate itself, not dive in the mix with Canikon. What’s more, diluting its R&D resources with the development of a camera line in yet another format is... well... just plain dumb, to be direct, IMHO. As the mirrorless market gets more crowded with players — some of which are pretty big and with deep pockets — differentiation remains a real key to success. Right now, Fuji’s product line lives in its own niche with some very unique capabilities. The last thing they need to do is to dilute their focus and resources by jumping into an already crowded FF market with Canon, Nikon, and Sony. Marketing 101.

To be honest, I think you’re simply enamored with FF and are struggling with seeing the bigger picture. JMHO.

--
Jerry-Astro
Fujifilm X Forum Co-Mod
 
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Shoot me now. Please.

;)
Bob, You and I have had our differences, but deep down inside there is a lot of love.

I am shocked that 19 people gave a thumbs up to your plea to be shot.

(Although I admit when I first saw the title of the thread that I too wanted to be thrust against a wall with a blindfold wrapped around my head and a cigarette hanging out of the corner of my mouth while I shouted my last request -- "No Full-Frame for Fuji!")

Do you want me to come to NYC and be your body guard? I have some skills.

Greg Johnson, San Antonio, Texas
 
Couple things;

Most folks that I know who aren't photography forum pixel peepers do not care about FF vs APSC. They only care about the photo.

One of my housemates is a pro photographer/lighting guy. He works with big name clients every week doing fashion, product and feature photography. He does this for a living and I am just a hobbyist. But when I have brought up nerdy photography topics such as this, he laughs. Him and his circle of photo production friends are more concerned with getting the lighting to work and dealing with #^%! demanding clients. Pretty much all cameras are good enough.

I'd also point out that the image quality difference between FF and APSC is not as great as it once was.

Really the main advantage of FF for most non-pro users, is that you can get that hip shallow depth of field look. Which is really great if you know what you are doing. If you don't, then you end up with half of someones face blurred. For a lot of folks the APSC, and it's not quite so shallow DOF, is more forgiving.

Is that the only reason to use FF? Of course not. But when I put my Fuji APSC photos next to my Canon FF photos I am not thinking that I am missing anything in terms of image quality, DR or color. I do think that the different cameras somehow have me taking different types of photos due to the divergent approaches of camera operation.
So true - if you can shoot in good light (natural or man-made) it doesn't really matter what you shoot with. A cell phone will give you amazing images if you have the right light in your exposure.

From a marketing perspective: Fujifilm has a big hole in the middle of the price range. Their APS-C range has a hard time transitioning users from their APS-C price range to their MF range.
But I am sure someone at Fuji has heard of Moore's law. The price of MF will come down where as the price APS-C is pretty close to being where it will be. Fuji seems to be in for the long run. If I were in my 30's today and doing what I was doing when I was 30 only with today's technology, I would have a GFX in a nanosecond. APS-C is gnawing away at FF from the bottom and MF prices will come down. Many a technologies have been caught in that squeeze. Take the former large computer company - Digital Equipment Corporation. The stakes out a market in "mini-computers." They were big enough to do a lot of things but inexpensive enough for every company to have them. They made a killing, then all of sudden as Moore's law kicked in - the PC platforms were gnawing away from below and what that once were considered super computers getting cheaper and cheaper.

DEC was going tits up and was bought by a PC company (Compaq Computer who was bought by AP). There are no DEC computers around today except in museums. Electronics is strange like that. FF today is a sweet spot but that sweet spot is going to change and APS-C closes the technical and IQ gap and medium format closes the cost gap.
Why would the technical gap close? All it needs to do is reach a point of sufficiency, which I would argue happened back in 2012. There has been relatively little real world IQ improvement since then, other than with phone sensors.

All the new tech is about faster readout, more AF points, etc. IQ is nearly stagnant.

As for the cost gap, unit sensor cost is a function of batch size as well as yield, not sensor tech. The reason why microprocessors get cheaper with smaller die sizes is because they get smaller. More chips per wafer, higher yield.

The same economy of scale principle does not apply to camera sensors.

BSI is far more expensive than FSI, but a large enough batch makes them economic. If Nikon order 20,000 D850 sensors, they will be a lot cheaper than if they order 1,000.

GFX sensor prices will come down when and if the market picks up and more people buy them. As it stands, the price ratio vs. FF is pretty high.
There is a lot of activity in the image sensor world just commercial image sensors for cameras. Between security cameras, medical imaging, etc. there is a lot of work going on. processes improve over time as to manufacturing.

The semi-conductor industry has always benefited by primarily military applications pouring lots of money in to develop the base technology. The US space program of the 1960's was a huge shot in the arm that led to rapid development to the semi-conduction industry.

Fairchild Camera and Instrument put the first digital camera in an military strategic airborne reconnaissance aircraft so real time imagery could be forwarded back in the early mid 1970's. Fairchild Camera and Instrument division Fairchild semiconductor delivered the first digital camera sensor for space applications in the mid 1970's. NASA launched digital imagery sensors - actually hyper spectral sensors in the early 1980's. Where those sensors expensive -you bet your bippy. Did those developments quick start a technology that eventually aided the commercial world. They sure did.

Because of the importance of imagery today to multiple agencies, from NASA to the military the US and other countries (European space agency, China, Japan, etc.) are plowing money into the advances of sensor technology. DARPA has developed a 1.8 GP sensor that can spot and identify a person from 20,000 feet. That system came out of BAE out of its Fairchild Imaging division. The sensor comes from stitching 5 MP sensors together into a large aperture.

At some point just as the cameras flown in the mid 1970's made their impact on the commercial market - 10 to 20 years later - so will the current sensor technology that is being developed. There are a lot of drivers out there other than order size of Nikon.

When NSA could not find a fab that could produce the chips it wanted they built their own fab. Part was technology reasons, part because of the small runs of unique custom designed chips and part was security reasons.


It was opened in the early 1980's and was sold to National Semiconductor in the early 2000's because the need had been overcome by events.

Was this an expensive proposition - yep. Was it necessary - yep. Did it push forward the technology that helped propel the commercial market - yep.
 
Shoot me now. Please.

;)
Bob, You and I have had our differences, but deep down inside there is a lot of love.

I am shocked that 19 people gave a thumbs up to your plea to be shot.

(Although I admit when I first saw the title of the thread that I too wanted to be thrust against a wall with a blindfold wrapped around my head and a cigarette hanging out of the corner of my mouth while I shouted my last request -- "No Full-Frame for Fuji!")

Do you want me to come to NYC and be your body guard? I have some skills.

Greg Johnson, San Antonio, Texas
https://www.flickr.com/photos/139148982@N02/albums
So, if that meet ever happens, can one of you please send along an invite? I’d might want to be there to witness it firsthand. Sounds epic.

I might even bring my camera (X-T2? X-H1? X-T2? X-H1?) ... aargh! Decisions decisions decisions. The pics could be weekly thread material for sure.

:-) :-) :-)
 
Couple things;

Most folks that I know who aren't photography forum pixel peepers do not care about FF vs APSC. They only care about the photo.

One of my housemates is a pro photographer/lighting guy. He works with big name clients every week doing fashion, product and feature photography. He does this for a living and I am just a hobbyist. But when I have brought up nerdy photography topics such as this, he laughs. Him and his circle of photo production friends are more concerned with getting the lighting to work and dealing with #^%! demanding clients. Pretty much all cameras are good enough.

I'd also point out that the image quality difference between FF and APSC is not as great as it once was.

Really the main advantage of FF for most non-pro users, is that you can get that hip shallow depth of field look. Which is really great if you know what you are doing. If you don't, then you end up with half of someones face blurred. For a lot of folks the APSC, and it's not quite so shallow DOF, is more forgiving.

Is that the only reason to use FF? Of course not. But when I put my Fuji APSC photos next to my Canon FF photos I am not thinking that I am missing anything in terms of image quality, DR or color. I do think that the different cameras somehow have me taking different types of photos due to the divergent approaches of camera operation.
So true - if you can shoot in good light (natural or man-made) it doesn't really matter what you shoot with. A cell phone will give you amazing images if you have the right light in your exposure.

From a marketing perspective: Fujifilm has a big hole in the middle of the price range. Their APS-C range has a hard time transitioning users from their APS-C price range to their MF range.
But I am sure someone at Fuji has heard of Moore's law. The price of MF will come down where as the price APS-C is pretty close to being where it will be. Fuji seems to be in for the long run. If I were in my 30's today and doing what I was doing when I was 30 only with today's technology, I would have a GFX in a nanosecond. APS-C is gnawing away at FF from the bottom and MF prices will come down. Many a technologies have been caught in that squeeze. Take the former large computer company - Digital Equipment Corporation. The stakes out a market in "mini-computers." They were big enough to do a lot of things but inexpensive enough for every company to have them. They made a killing, then all of sudden as Moore's law kicked in - the PC platforms were gnawing away from below and what that once were considered super computers getting cheaper and cheaper.

DEC was going tits up and was bought by a PC company (Compaq Computer who was bought by AP). There are no DEC computers around today except in museums. Electronics is strange like that. FF today is a sweet spot but that sweet spot is going to change and APS-C closes the technical and IQ gap and medium format closes the cost gap.
Why would the technical gap close? All it needs to do is reach a point of sufficiency, which I would argue happened back in 2012. There has been relatively little real world IQ improvement since then, other than with phone sensors.

All the new tech is about faster readout, more AF points, etc. IQ is nearly stagnant.

As for the cost gap, unit sensor cost is a function of batch size as well as yield, not sensor tech. The reason why microprocessors get cheaper with smaller die sizes is because they get smaller. More chips per wafer, higher yield.

The same economy of scale principle does not apply to camera sensors.

BSI is far more expensive than FSI, but a large enough batch makes them economic. If Nikon order 20,000 D850 sensors, they will be a lot cheaper than if they order 1,000.

GFX sensor prices will come down when and if the market picks up and more people buy them. As it stands, the price ratio vs. FF is pretty high.
There is a lot of activity in the image sensor world just commercial image sensors for cameras. Between security cameras, medical imaging, etc. there is a lot of work going on. processes improve over time as to manufacturing.

The semi-conductor industry has always benefited by primarily military applications pouring lots of money in to develop the base technology. The US space program of the 1960's was a huge shot in the arm that led to rapid development to the semi-conduction industry.

Fairchild Camera and Instrument put the first digital camera in an military strategic airborne reconnaissance aircraft so real time imagery could be forwarded back in the early mid 1970's. Fairchild Camera and Instrument division Fairchild semiconductor delivered the first digital camera sensor for space applications in the mid 1970's. NASA launched digital imagery sensors - actually hyper spectral sensors in the early 1980's. Where those sensors expensive -you bet your bippy. Did those developments quick start a technology that eventually aided the commercial world. They sure did.

Because of the importance of imagery today to multiple agencies, from NASA to the military the US and other countries (European space agency, China, Japan, etc.) are plowing money into the advances of sensor technology. DARPA has developed a 1.8 GP sensor that can spot and identify a person from 20,000 feet. That system came out of BAE out of its Fairchild Imaging division. The sensor comes from stitching 5 MP sensors together into a large aperture.

At some point just as the cameras flown in the mid 1970's made their impact on the commercial market - 10 to 20 years later - so will the current sensor technology that is being developed. There are a lot of drivers out there other than order size of Nikon.

When NSA could not find a fab that could produce the chips it wanted they built their own fab. Part was technology reasons, part because of the small runs of unique custom designed chips and part was security reasons.

https://www.militaryaerospace.com/a...new-business-for-in-house-cmos-wafer-fab.html

It was opened in the early 1980's and was sold to National Semiconductor in the early 2000's because the need had been overcome by events.

Was this an expensive proposition - yep. Was it necessary - yep. Did it push forward the technology that helped propel the commercial market - yep.
Yes, nice history lesson, but not really relevant. The component density on the average APSC or FF sensor is far less than a processor or flash memory so Moore's law never applied. They could easily make a 600MP FF sensor, so why don't they?

QE is about as good as it gets (if you deleted the colour filter it would be about 90%) so there is nowhere to go. Shot noise is what it is, read noise is already down to around 1DU and further improvements in an IQ sense are increasingly pointless.

Just look at SNR curves for FF and APSC sensors over the last 5 years and they have barely nudged, even with BSI.

And I don't see any signs that anything is getting cheaper.
 
I shot 35mm and medium format during my film days. Why is it that in the digital age everyone takes "upgrade path" to mean a larger sensor? It wasn't that way in the film era. I was always more deliberate in my shooting with medium format than I was with 35mm. I can't see many people using the spray and pray method with medium format, even in the digital era. No 20 FPS machine guns in medium format, then or now.

I shoot m43, and since I'm satisfied with the image quality for what I do, my upgrade path would be one of the m43 flagships. If I want better video or faster still performance, it's there for me.

Canon and Nikon had no choice but to make 35mm because they had millions of users who wanted their 35mm lens to have the same angle of view they've always had. Even Nikon resisted for a time until Canon started taking away the pro market. Olympus had no AF legacy to build on with 35mm, Panasonic had no camera legacy of any kind. Fuji, while their only autofocus film MFs were the non interchangeable lens 645 series, but they still had a legacy of MF customers who wanted to see them get into it.

For APS-c, Fuji has a camera for every level, just like in the film era, where one could go from a Rebel to a EOS-1 series. That's an upgrade path. The medium format customer is a different breed. Fuji's not focused on the APS-c customer looking up, but the 5 figure medium format customer looking down.
 
Every Fuji executive keeps saying we have no interest in full-frame. But, what the heck do they know :-P

--
Bill S.
www.flickr.com/photos/wrs1946
instagram.com@billschaffel
“Sharpness is a bourgeois concept”
- Henri Cartier-Bresson -
 
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If Fujifilm did go FF, it would be lights out for Nikon and Canon. Arrogance always loses in the end.
 
If Fujifilm did go FF, it would be lights out for Nikon and Canon. Arrogance always loses in the end.
Look up "arrogance" in the dictionary and the illustration has a red dot on it. Leica seems to keep on hanging on.
 

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