Most people do not understand that chasing market share, especially in a shrinking market, is not a solid path to profitability. Margins are more critical now than ever, and developing cameras is an expensive undertaking -- even if the camera doesn't have a lot of new features.
I completely disagree. When the market will bottom out, only those manufacturers will survive, who will have enough market share to fund the development costs. Going for margins now is a grave error, in my opinion. Sony and Fuji saw the light a few years back, I think, and started to fight for market share. Canon and Nikon now strike back, trying to protect their large pieces of the pie.
Nikon actually has the same strategy as Olympus. They see that the reality is that the camera market is largely stagnant (meaning the units being shipped are not growing significantly). The way to profit is higher margin cameras. So you see that for their entry level they largely do minor refreshes. Most of their resources are focused on the more profitable FX cameras and protecting the market share there. They cut the size of their company to run more lean.
Great arguments, I'll try to counter. As for Nikon, it really seems like they invested little into the their APS-C line in the last couple of years. But they did introduce the D7500 just 1,5 years ago, which was more than just a cosmetic upgrade. More importantly, I think it is reasonably to assume that the Z-system gobbled most of their R&D budget in that timeframe.
If we are to believe Tom Hogan's insider sources, there was some fierce discussion inside Nikon whether to introduce mirrorless at high- or low-end first. They decided on FF and it will be extremely interesting to see what will they do next. Maybe you are right and they will gradually abandon the APS-C market. But given their enormous user base I find it pretty hard to believe. There are several other options - they might introduce APS-C MILC either on F-mount, or on Z-mount or move FF to entry level as well.
I am very curious to see what will happen, but I think it is a bit too early to declare they stopped serious development of their APS-C lineup.
I don't think they will abandon the APS-C line, just that it gets even less priority than it did before. They can keep offering the refreshed budget DSLRs indefinitely, and I do hope they will make a APS-C mirrorless. But for entry level APS-C body they probably won't put much effort into it. APS-C flagships (like the D500) they probably will still be interested in making, but it may only get tech trickled down from the FF cameras.
By abandoning I meant exactly what you say - offering mildly refreshed DSLRs indefinitely, or more precisely, until they still sell. That would not stop the bleeding, especially when it becomes apparent to everybody that the F-mount is legacy stuff with no real future.
if Nikon wants to keep its customer base, I see no other way than to pour some real money into it and develop a low end to midrange MILC products.
Meanwhile, Olympus and Panasonic only seem to develop high margin products without any effort to grab market share or at least protect the position of M43. Is their management idiotic? Or have they already given up.
While you can argue they aren't making a strong effort to grow market share, I don't think you can argue they aren't protecting the market share of M43. Both brands are employing the strategy of offering older cameras at good prices to hold on to market share: E-M10 II and E-M5 II still available at discounted prices, GX85 2 lens kit is a great deal and selling really well (#11 in Amazon).
Yes you are right, they defend the market share by lowering the prices of their existing cameras, especially in the case of Panasonic. My point was more about investing R&D and filtering down the technology from high-end to low-end. The very low end seems ok to me, actually. Where I see a hole is a step higher - the E-M10 III was a very mild refresh and the E-M5 III is missing in action. The GX9 was a mild refresh and the G90 is MIA. The technology package introduced by both manufacturers at the high end in 2016 was not reused in more mainstream products to this day.
I think E-M5 III is really the only one that is really overdue given the E-M5 II came out in early 2015. The GX9 was a reasonable refresh, especially for the price (a lot of people would be happy if G80/G85 had a similar refresh). The G80/G85 only came out late 2016 (plus G90/G95 is rumored).
The GX9 just reused the tilting EVF from the GX7 and the sensor from the GX8. Some really old stuff. It even led to a comeback of the inconvenient 1,25x crop in 4K. They barely used anything from the G9 (jpeg engine and menus?), first of all not the sensor+processor combo, which would allow for a fast e-shutter, no crop 4K (or even 4K/60p) and better video AF. No improved IBIS either, And most importantly, they did not address the most prevalent user complaints about the GX80/85 - the EVF and the grip (though not such a big deal for me). And they did not add the mic-jack either, which the competition has. Truly, the GX9 has only one strength now and that's the IBIS. But if you really care about that more than the rest, then you can just buy the GX80/85 for a much lower price.
I don't think the G90 is seriously rumored. I am pretty sure the G9 is the would be G90, just with an unsuccessful effort to push it higher. The problem is that it is conceptually wrong for a midrange M43 camera (too big), so price cuts, which are already ongoing, will not save it.
G90 like GX9? I hope not, what would be the point? What should Panasonic really do, in my opinion, is to introduce PDAF across the range as fast as possible, as everyone now knows that their AF in video sucks. And that hurts them big time, given their emphasis on video. The next best choice is to at least reuse the improvements in their flagships. And they should Implement 4K/60p throughout the lineup as well, like they did with 4K/30p, to have some significant advantage. It would be pretty funny if Fujifilm beat them with 4K/60p in a X-T30.
Also, my argument was not only about bodies. Both manufacturers poured a lot of R&D into developing premium priced lenses (Leica and PRO), while stopping any activity at the mainstream or low-end. These lenses were not positioned to capture market share at all.
I think this is more a reflection that there really aren't a lot of gaps in the lineup in the lower/mid end, the 12-60mm in 2016 pretty much filled in one. Olympus perhaps needs a successor to the 12-50mm. The premium lenses are the profit generators.
But those profit generators can only work if you are inside the M43 bubble.