whoa whoa
what Im saying is gains far beyond where we are now
i dont see any reason why 3200 isnt achievable, and thats for all of them, FF and APS.
I don't understand what you mean by "achievable". Do you mean ISO 3200 as clean as today's ISO 100? Or do you mean noise levels at ISO 3200 that are "good enough"? If the former, then that's simply not possible, since even if the sensor were noiseless and recorded all the light falling on it, there would still be enough noise
from the light itself to stop this from happening.
However, if you meant the latter, then we need to
carefully define "good enough", since it depends greatly on display dimensions and a person's "quality threshold". However, it's a reasonable goal if we are talking about an image on an HDTV (1920 x 1080), which some argue will due to printing what digital sensors have done to film.
But this is far more likely to be introduced by someone who:
- 1/ doesnt fab their own sensors,
- 2/, doesnt hold a slot in FF (which we agree has better noise performance)
The way I look at things, FF doesn't have "better noise performance". It has lenses with larger apparent apertures that gather more light at the expense of a more shallow DOF. If FF had "better noise performance", then it could take the same shot as what Olympus does with less noise. Well, it can, but only at the lower ISOs, since no 4/3 camera has ISO 25. So, at the low ISO end, FF does have less noise. But at the high end, the lower noise from FF carries a price tag of more shallow DOF.
but if your publishable ISO is now ISO6400, then there is a lot less pressure on the differences between FF and the rest. At some point, the needs and pressures for higher ISO by the market, begin to slide off.
The question, then, is at what point those needs are sufficiently met. As ISO performance improves, it opens opportunities for new forms of photography that were infeasible or relegated to tripod. Pretend there were a clean ISO 12800 -- I bet a lot of people would find good use for it.
I dont disagree that FF will still have better noise performance, but just ask yourself what do you really need.
Well, see, that's the whole point. What I need is not what another needs. Some people spend their whole lives at ISO 100, whereas others are rarely below ISO 1600. In my opinion, we are already well past the point of what most "need".
and note, removing the bayer only gets you 2/3 of a stop,
It's more than that, but I haven't worked out exactly how much. The color filters will absorb some of it (I don't know exactly how much, however) and then the Bayer CFA, by design, loses a lot more, depending on the color of the light. For while light, a RGGB CFA will capture 1/3 of the light that makes it though the color filters, which is a 1.6 stop loss. So, a safe guess is that the Bayer CFA results in a 2-3 stop light loss for white light.
likewise other 'improvements' for noise are going to be very incremental from here.
Yes. That's how things have been going, and will continue to go. But today's sensors are about 3 stops away from (near) zero read noise, so improvements will continue asymptotically, much in the same way more pixels increases resolution, but not by as much as the pixel increase would lead one to believe.
Processing holds the greater gains for the least cost. Its an obvious direction that these pretty smart people in R&D labs are just not going to miss...
There's only so much that can be done. But clever NR algorithms may be able to give the
illusion of less noise without destroying detail by reconstructing what the image "should" look like. For example, just as compacts have smile recognition, an NR engine might have "hair recognition" or "sky recongition" and process accordingly.
i reckon i could get a copy of PS and a PC for less than the cost of a FF sensor. And we are talking about processing requirements that are a whole lot less than that.
Quite honestly, PP skills make a
far greater difference in many instances than does the equipment. But it's always good to start with as good an image as possible, and then apply those skills to that image.