The data to answer your question are in the DxO database. DxO's formula shows that reducing 15MP to 10MP (eg) gains a maximum of 1.76 dB in SNR. This maximum gain applies when (and only when) the sensor is photon noise limited - when light is plentiful, in other words. As light becomes less plentiful downsampling will help progressively less because the sensor stops being photon-noise limited.Averaging pixels 4:1 obviously increases the number of photons
collected per-pixel by a factor of 4, so the shot noise, sqrt,
goes down by a factor of 2, so the SNR goes up by about 3dB or 1
f-stop.
But that's per-pixel noise. It's even more obvious that, since
sensor sizes aren't changing, the average number of photons collected
per-image is constant from generation to generation. So more
megapixels just give the photographer the option of extended
resolution when plenty of light is available.
What happens when light is not plentiful can be observed by anyone who cares to by looking at the DxO SNR graphs. Note, however, that you have to look at the graphs under the "Full SNR" tab and use the logarithmic scale graphs, not the linear ones. For example, at 1% reflectance and ISO 200 the LX-3 has an 8-9 dB advantage in SNR over the G10.
--
2 November 1975.
'... Ma come io possiedo la storia,
essa mi possiede; ne sono illuminato:
ma a che serve la luce?'