For the past few weeks I've been digging very deeply into a problem I've had with sharpness on my D500 and Nikkor 200-500 f/5.6. I've always been somewhat disappointed with the results I get from this pair but have had little success improving it with fine tuning. I know the lens isn't going to give the same kinds of results as high end prime, but it also ought to do better than something like this - representative of much of what I've gotten from it (some of the photos below are edited for general color, exposure, etc., while others are not):

After dozens of hours of testing and hundreds of test shots over the past two weeks or so I feel like I've actually gotten it to the point of getting good results, for instance here:

It's like night and day, and they're even similar in terms of crop size. Or this:

It's not great, but it's pretty good. Photos of humans can be particularly sharp to my eye:

Yet I am finding myself often still getting photos that are really lacking in sharpness or even downright blurry, even by all indications they ought to be much better. For instance:

The bird is downright blurry here. Yet, it's 1/2000 of a second, it's f/8 so the depth of field is larger, and the lighting was decent, with a relatively low ISO as a consequence. Now one might say that this is just one photo and maybe the focus point was a bit off or something, but bear in mind that it's just one example I'm sharing to illustrate a large trend.
Similarly, this duckling:

It's not horrible horrible, but it's also definitely below the level of sharpness I'd expect for this combo and far below some of the better examples above. The duck is pretty small in the frame so I'm not expecting perfect detail, but you don't even have to zoom in to 50% to start to see that it's not really sharp.
Some others which turn out okay after a lot of noise removal suffer a lack of detail and much heavier noise than I'd expect given the conditions. However, that's not the primary concern of this post. Remember the slightly blurry gull a couple of photos up? Here's the very next photo I took, just a few seconds later:

This one's still noisier than I think I'd expect for the conditions - maybe I'm wrong? - but it's clearly much sharper than the other one, and in all the same conditions with the same settings. I have another version of this I've done some denoising on and it's a reasonably decent photo, at least as far as IQ is concerned. What's the difference?
About 3 meters - according to the EXIF data, anyways. The first one reports a focus distance of 17.8 meters while the second of 15 meters. Noticing this, I started to go through a bunch of photos and found that as a general rule, anything over ~15 meters or so seems to be fairly lacking in sharpness, whereas photos under that distance generally displays an appropriate sharpness for their conditions. It's also important to note that the size of the subject in the frame doesn't seem to matter - the trend is about the same whether a subject is large in the frame or small, the only difference being how much room there is to see additional detail by zooming with larger subjects.
I can think of at least three causes for this - maybe you can think of something I'm missing.
1) The lens is simply not sharp at those focusing distances.
2) The AF fine tuning is accurate within a certain range and needs to be different for subjects at greater distances.
3) There is something wrong or some limitation with the camera's AF system.
As a first step to trying to figure this out, I have looked at a few photos taken with this lens on my Z7ii mirrorless camera. I have tended to avoid it for wildlife but have used it some, especially as I've been trying to sort my D500 out and because I am also considering selling them both to buy a Z8 and wanted to use the Z7ii to get at least a very rough ballpark idea of the AF and IQ that I might expect on the Z8 (my idea being that while the Z7ii has a hard time getting focus on some quickly moving subjects, when it does that AF seems very accurate and so the Z8 would only be better). I found this one to start. It reports 17.8 meters - the same as the worse of the gull photos I shared from the D500 but clearly much sharper. This has been denoised, but the sharpness was there in the original.

Here's one in which the subject was pretty small in the frame, so it's been cropped quite a bit. I wouldn't say it's perfect and it may be ever so slightly front focused (maybe on the water splashes, actually), but it's hard for me to say whether that's the same issue being discussed or it's just a miss from the Z7ii's AF system in trying to do something that it doesn't really excel at:

Either way, for 30 meters it seems better than any of the >15m D500 shots. I feel like this one at least looks relatively sharp when you aren't zooming (and remember it's already cropped a lot to begin with) whereas so many of the D500 ones are looking fuzzy even before you start getting closer.
Here's one that's cropped quite a lot. There isn't room to zoom in really at all and see more details and for me at least that makes it slightly harder to judge sharpness but I think it's actually pretty good, and this at about 24 meters.

Another, this one at 20 meters and pretty significantly cropped (focus is on the mother; I don't expect the duckling to be in good focus given the DoF):

Finally, at 17.8 meters but what I'd call a pretty extreme, 100% crop:

Unfortunately, I don't think I have quite enough quantity or quality of examples to really say for sure that the mirrorless is getting sharper, more in focus shots at these greater distances, and truth be told I don't feel like I have enough poor ones at greater distances to say with absolute confidence that this is a problem on the D500, though as you can see there is thus far a notable trend here. In particular, I'd like to get some shots of some larger and more contrasty (vs. a white bird, which a lot of these are) subjects at greater distances with both of these cameras. Nevertheless, what do you think about the general issue and the trend I've tried to illustrate with a few selections here? What would you recommend I do by way of testing to try to nail down what's going on with some measure of confidence?
I do feel like I need more examples to say for sure, but I feel at least mostly confident in ruling out possibility #1 here, that the lens isn't sharp at greater focus distances. Again, I'm sure it isn't the sharpest lens on the planet, but some of the Z shots do seem to give reason to think that it is possible to get at least decent looking photos out of this lens from these greater distances. That leaves AF fine tuning or a camera problem. Any thoughts on trying to figure out which it is?
Right now I'm looking to upgrade my setup, most likely selling the Z7ii to hep fund it. One possibility with pretty clear advantages would be to keep the D500 and add some more useful glass. For example, I would like a 70-200 f/2.8. And, I love my D500 and the photos I get out of it when they're sharp. The other option is to sell both and get a Z8, putting off more glass for now. This is the "less bang for the buck" option as it doesn't add any options for lenses, though it does pave the way for focusing on the Z mount in the future. If the problem here is the D500 itself, then unfortunately I think the Z8 is the way I'd have to go. I also think that an AF fine tune issue might mean the same thing. After all, if I need to tune the lens significantly differently depending on whether the subject is within a certain distance or not it's a fairly significant problem. On the other hand, if there's some middle ground that gives me sharp photos at all distances, then I can more seriously consider keeping the D500 - which is what I ideally would prefer.

After dozens of hours of testing and hundreds of test shots over the past two weeks or so I feel like I've actually gotten it to the point of getting good results, for instance here:

It's like night and day, and they're even similar in terms of crop size. Or this:

It's not great, but it's pretty good. Photos of humans can be particularly sharp to my eye:

Yet I am finding myself often still getting photos that are really lacking in sharpness or even downright blurry, even by all indications they ought to be much better. For instance:

The bird is downright blurry here. Yet, it's 1/2000 of a second, it's f/8 so the depth of field is larger, and the lighting was decent, with a relatively low ISO as a consequence. Now one might say that this is just one photo and maybe the focus point was a bit off or something, but bear in mind that it's just one example I'm sharing to illustrate a large trend.
Similarly, this duckling:

It's not horrible horrible, but it's also definitely below the level of sharpness I'd expect for this combo and far below some of the better examples above. The duck is pretty small in the frame so I'm not expecting perfect detail, but you don't even have to zoom in to 50% to start to see that it's not really sharp.
Some others which turn out okay after a lot of noise removal suffer a lack of detail and much heavier noise than I'd expect given the conditions. However, that's not the primary concern of this post. Remember the slightly blurry gull a couple of photos up? Here's the very next photo I took, just a few seconds later:

This one's still noisier than I think I'd expect for the conditions - maybe I'm wrong? - but it's clearly much sharper than the other one, and in all the same conditions with the same settings. I have another version of this I've done some denoising on and it's a reasonably decent photo, at least as far as IQ is concerned. What's the difference?
About 3 meters - according to the EXIF data, anyways. The first one reports a focus distance of 17.8 meters while the second of 15 meters. Noticing this, I started to go through a bunch of photos and found that as a general rule, anything over ~15 meters or so seems to be fairly lacking in sharpness, whereas photos under that distance generally displays an appropriate sharpness for their conditions. It's also important to note that the size of the subject in the frame doesn't seem to matter - the trend is about the same whether a subject is large in the frame or small, the only difference being how much room there is to see additional detail by zooming with larger subjects.
I can think of at least three causes for this - maybe you can think of something I'm missing.
1) The lens is simply not sharp at those focusing distances.
2) The AF fine tuning is accurate within a certain range and needs to be different for subjects at greater distances.
3) There is something wrong or some limitation with the camera's AF system.
As a first step to trying to figure this out, I have looked at a few photos taken with this lens on my Z7ii mirrorless camera. I have tended to avoid it for wildlife but have used it some, especially as I've been trying to sort my D500 out and because I am also considering selling them both to buy a Z8 and wanted to use the Z7ii to get at least a very rough ballpark idea of the AF and IQ that I might expect on the Z8 (my idea being that while the Z7ii has a hard time getting focus on some quickly moving subjects, when it does that AF seems very accurate and so the Z8 would only be better). I found this one to start. It reports 17.8 meters - the same as the worse of the gull photos I shared from the D500 but clearly much sharper. This has been denoised, but the sharpness was there in the original.

Here's one in which the subject was pretty small in the frame, so it's been cropped quite a bit. I wouldn't say it's perfect and it may be ever so slightly front focused (maybe on the water splashes, actually), but it's hard for me to say whether that's the same issue being discussed or it's just a miss from the Z7ii's AF system in trying to do something that it doesn't really excel at:

Either way, for 30 meters it seems better than any of the >15m D500 shots. I feel like this one at least looks relatively sharp when you aren't zooming (and remember it's already cropped a lot to begin with) whereas so many of the D500 ones are looking fuzzy even before you start getting closer.
Here's one that's cropped quite a lot. There isn't room to zoom in really at all and see more details and for me at least that makes it slightly harder to judge sharpness but I think it's actually pretty good, and this at about 24 meters.

Another, this one at 20 meters and pretty significantly cropped (focus is on the mother; I don't expect the duckling to be in good focus given the DoF):

Finally, at 17.8 meters but what I'd call a pretty extreme, 100% crop:

Unfortunately, I don't think I have quite enough quantity or quality of examples to really say for sure that the mirrorless is getting sharper, more in focus shots at these greater distances, and truth be told I don't feel like I have enough poor ones at greater distances to say with absolute confidence that this is a problem on the D500, though as you can see there is thus far a notable trend here. In particular, I'd like to get some shots of some larger and more contrasty (vs. a white bird, which a lot of these are) subjects at greater distances with both of these cameras. Nevertheless, what do you think about the general issue and the trend I've tried to illustrate with a few selections here? What would you recommend I do by way of testing to try to nail down what's going on with some measure of confidence?
I do feel like I need more examples to say for sure, but I feel at least mostly confident in ruling out possibility #1 here, that the lens isn't sharp at greater focus distances. Again, I'm sure it isn't the sharpest lens on the planet, but some of the Z shots do seem to give reason to think that it is possible to get at least decent looking photos out of this lens from these greater distances. That leaves AF fine tuning or a camera problem. Any thoughts on trying to figure out which it is?
Right now I'm looking to upgrade my setup, most likely selling the Z7ii to hep fund it. One possibility with pretty clear advantages would be to keep the D500 and add some more useful glass. For example, I would like a 70-200 f/2.8. And, I love my D500 and the photos I get out of it when they're sharp. The other option is to sell both and get a Z8, putting off more glass for now. This is the "less bang for the buck" option as it doesn't add any options for lenses, though it does pave the way for focusing on the Z mount in the future. If the problem here is the D500 itself, then unfortunately I think the Z8 is the way I'd have to go. I also think that an AF fine tune issue might mean the same thing. After all, if I need to tune the lens significantly differently depending on whether the subject is within a certain distance or not it's a fairly significant problem. On the other hand, if there's some middle ground that gives me sharp photos at all distances, then I can more seriously consider keeping the D500 - which is what I ideally would prefer.
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