Which MFG are the safest bet to not abandon you? Which aren't?

Zero polycabonate

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The way I see it, we have about 7 major players, with 8 established systems. Fuji with X, Nikon and Canon (im not including Nikon 1), Pentax K mount (not including Q), Sony with 3 systems, and Olympus and Panasonic with MFT. If somebody is brand new to the camera industry, this could be a very confusing decision.

Conventional wisdom says that the best selling items are the safest to return, but this isn't always a black and white deal. Some companies have a lower profit threshold before they decide to call it quits, some are even willing to lose money just to play the game (more likely if the loss isn't huge, or if they have deep pockets). My first thought is Canon, the biggest, probably the most popular, followed closely by Nikon.

These two seem very close on the surface, although Canon seem to be more financially stable from what I read (sensor IQ aside, making your own sensors is a benefit to stability). Canon is just bigger in the wallet, although I still think they are both safe from disaster due to the immense popularity, and both have amazing lens selections.

Next, in no particular order, we have Fuji. I have also heard Fuji, while not as popular in the camera market, have big financial backing. How they would put up with losses I have no idea, and I haven't seen any data. Similar to Pentax, the Fuji following seem to be very loyal, and they are very unique in their design (if a little behind the curve in tech, still using 16mp). If I were going to bet on a last-man-standing of the mirrorless bunch, Fuji would be one of the two I would bet on (the other being Panasonic).

Pentax seems another safe bet similar to Canon and Nikon. Not because it's anywhere near as popular, but it has a very loyal consumer base and a whole lot of money to back it up now that Ricoh is paying the bills. FF on the way is a good sign, the system is growing rather than the other way around, and they hold an important segment of the industry, the "outdoorsman" system. Everywhere I look, Ricoh/Pentax appeal to the "rugged" consumer. Yes there are other tough cameras like the D4 but one can buy a fully sealed Pentax K50 w/sealed kit lens for under $400.

Sony is a bit of an unknown to me. I hear a lot about financial data where they are losing money hand over fist, yet they keep pushing forward with FE mount. A-mount has grown rather stale, seemingly getting put on the back burner (I have heard rumors of new cameras, but only rumors) with some downsizing going on in the past removing the A3x line and A6x line. In Sony ML, there is a thread in Sony apsc E mount about Sony focusing on FE instead (there is lots of talk from users about swapping MFG due to this). FE is full steam ahead but many don't see it as a complete system even today.

MFT rounds out the list. I have also read Olympus is in trouble, with dwindling sales as well as not being a financial giant. Panasonic on the other hand is supposed to be similar to Canon or Pentax, lots of money to throw around for future investment. MFT seems to be a growing system, if only held back by the lack of prestige due to the smaller sensor. Then we seemingly have a wedge being driven by Panasonic, with it's DFD only working with Panasonic lenses, and now the GX8 debuting a hybrid IS system which of course, is only fully functional with Panasonic OIS glass.

Without starting a troll war, I would personally be weary of both Olympus and Sony. Olympus is a smaller player, both financially and status wise. Their partner in crime seems to be separating themselves, almost developing their own system so to speak. Sony on the other hand can't make up their mind where to go. Abandoning one group of people after another isn't the way to develop a loyal user base, but they seem to have their agenda, consumer be damned.

So what do you guys think? Are there clear lines as to a safe bet (as safe as can reasonably be expected) for a lifetime of ownership? Are there any brands that are on shaky ground? Feel free to just speculate or add financial and sales data.
 
Don't overlook that Sony makes more camera sensors than anyone else and they make the most innovative and sophisticated ones. And Sony knows something that no other company knows... which is what the manufacturing cost of their sensors are now and what they will be in the years ahead. Sony can plan decades ahead on camera planning like no other company can... and with that knowledge they are pushing full frame. Sony is actually the company I am the least concerned about.
 
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Don't overlook that Sony makes more camera sensors than anyone else and they make the most innovative and sophisticated ones. And Sony knows something that no other company knows... which is what the manufacturing cost of their sensors are now and what they will be in the years ahead. Sony can plan decades ahead on camera planning like no other company can... and with that knowledge they are pushing full frame. Sony is actually the company I am the least concerned about.
Actually this was one of the reasons I thought Sony would have no issue with dumping cameras. From what I have heard, they actually make more profit off their sensors, that division is very successful. Sony don't have to make camera bodies to keep making sensors, they are separate entities, so the existence of a profitable sensor dept has no impact on their camera stability. This has been discussed many times over the years.
 
Zero polycabonate wrote:Without starting a troll war, I would personally be weary of both Olympus and Sony.
Olympus' camera division has been losing money for years, but they continue to make cameras out of pure stubbornness. I don't expect that to change any time soon.

Within the mirrorless sector, Sony has a dominant market share, so I suspect that they will continue to make cameras.

I don't know how "emotionally committed" Ricoh (Pentax) and Panasonic are to staying in the camera business.

Nikon is the most exposed to a general downturn in the camera sales, because "more than two-thirds of its revenue" comes from cameras. (Source: Reuters) They can't afford to abandon the camera business, but have tough times ahead.
 
OpticsEngineer wrote:And Sony knows something that no other company knows... which is what the manufacturing cost of their sensors are now and what they will be in the years ahead.
They work at a slower pace :-) , but Canon also designs and manufactures their own DSLR sensors.
 
Nikon may have tough times ahead, but they are a subsidiary of Mitsubishi. Considering the Japanese business methods of strong interconnections, I think that makes them at least as safe as Pentax with Ricoh.
 
Like one of those broken dogs on the ASPCA ads?

Actually I have never been concerned.

Once I owned the kit I owned the kit. I could really care less that Pentax discontinued my model camera some years later. What else was there to buy? I own one- or three- always prepared - of everything. Heck, they discontinued the format- yet I am still working. Life goes on. Nothing would change for me if they were still available new.

Should all the folks that bought FJ Cruisers or Honda Elements feel abandoned? Then there is the EL Camino. Those bastards.

Don't even start about Toshiba HD discs and players. The players (I own 2) still work perfectly and all the films in that format still look and sound amazing- on 4K TVs that were not even in production when the format was shelved.

I just force myself to make do.



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That's the guy who has the long run leverage. Look at Samsung and how they have eventually dominated smartphone sales volume. Currently there are four companies left that can build 100% of their cameras in house. Sigma, Samsung, Canon and Sony. Sigma does it on a smaller scale, Samsung doesn't do FF yet, Canon has retro sensors and Sony is fairly new compared to the other players (except Samsung). All the other manufacturers depend on others for parts to make their cameras. You know what happens when you depend on others.
 
I wouldn't want to bet money on the long term viability of any of them, except perhaps Canon. (And, sadly, the Canon dSLRs are not comfortable in my small hands, and I am not overwhelmed by their current mirrorless options -- so, Canon is off my buy list.)

Shoot with what makes you happy, and enjoy it. It's impossible to tell what the landscape will look like in five years.
 
Like one of those broken dogs on the ASPCA ads?

Actually I have never been concerned.

Once I owned the kit I owned the kit. I could really care less that Pentax discontinued my model camera some years later. What else was there to buy? I own one- or three- always prepared - of everything. Heck, they discontinued the format- yet I am still working. Life goes on. Nothing would change for me if they were still available new.

Should all the folks that bought FJ Cruisers or Honda Elements feel abandoned? Then there is the EL Camino. Those bastards.

Don't even start about Toshiba HD discs and players. The players (I own 2) still work perfectly and all the films in that format still look and sound amazing- on 4K TVs that were not even in production when the format was shelved.
I just force myself to make do.
Lets use another area to drive the point home. Smart phones. Do you think the majority of phone users would be ok just buying the same phone, over and over? That's kinda the point, not everybody is ok without having a new upgrade path, not everybody is ok losing support for their hardware.

The camera segment of users may not cycle through their cameras as fast as phone users, but the premise is the same. You might be ok never getting a new offering, but I'm not and judging by the high traffic with threads like this, many others are not either.

An El Camino is a horrible analogy, cars can become classics to the owners, most electronics are viewed as outdated junk after so long.
 
If you are about to invest all of your life savings into a camera system , well , maybe you are wise to think of all of those points but very unwise to ...well invest your life savings on a camera system.

Otherwise you are overthinking.

Just buy the system you like right now , go out and take some photos.
 
"...so the existence of a profitable sensor dept has no impact on their camera stability. This has been discussed many times over the years."

Could you provide a link to some of those discussions? It does not match what little I know about Japanese business culture. It does not even match my first hand knowledge of American business culture. In the large corporation I work in we are able to get confidential cost and schedule information from other business units in order to make long term strategic plans. And in other cases senior leadership sometimes just issues directives that sometimes seem mysterious until six months or a year later when parts of the puzzle fall into place with acquisitions, IP deals, etc. I can't imagine that the Sony camera division does not have projected cost information about Sony sensor chips that Canon/Nikon/Pentax etc have no clue about.

Not to mention that the really interesting chips, like the Sony one inch chips, were available only in Sony cameras for a couple of years before they let other companies get them. And then only after Sony came up with the "stacked" one inch chips, which again, they will keep for themselves for a while. The camera division gives them the means to get the most profit out of new innovative chips as they are introduced, before they let other companies get them.
 
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That's the guy who has the long run leverage. Look at Samsung and how they have eventually dominated smartphone sales volume. Currently there are four companies left that can build 100% of their cameras in house. Sigma, Samsung, Canon and Sony. Sigma does it on a smaller scale, Samsung doesn't do FF yet, Canon has retro sensors and Sony is fairly new compared to the other players (except Samsung). All the other manufacturers depend on others for parts to make their cameras. You know what happens when you depend on others.
 
Don't overlook that Sony makes more camera sensors than anyone else and they make the most innovative and sophisticated ones. And Sony knows something that no other company knows... which is what the manufacturing cost of their sensors are now and what they will be in the years ahead. Sony can plan decades ahead on camera planning like no other company can... and with that knowledge they are pushing full frame. Sony is actually the company I am the least concerned about.
Remember the photographers who preferred the OVF who were disappointed with Sony switching exclusively to SLTs? Remember the entry level SLT owners who thought Sony would rival the Canon Rebel series? Remember the mirrorless owners who bought into NEX because it was a small portable system with inexpensive pancake type lenses?

Well, Sony doesn't remember any of them either.

There is a good chance we many never see another new SLT body or APSC lens from Sony again.

The cameras not in jeopardy these days are Canon and Nikon.
 
"...so the existence of a profitable sensor dept has no impact on their camera stability. This has been discussed many times over the years."

Could you provide a link to some of those discussions? It does not match what little I know about Japanese business culture. It does not even match my first hand knowledge of American business culture. In the large corporation I work in we are able to get confidential cost and schedule information from other business units in order to make long term strategic plans. And in other cases senior leadership sometimes just issues directives that sometimes seem mysterious until six months or a year later when parts of the puzzle fall into place with acquisitions, IP deals, etc. I can't imagine that the Sony camera division does not have projected cost information about Sony sensor chips that Canon/Nikon/Pentax etc have no clue about.

Not to mention that the really interesting chips, like the Sony one inch chips, were available only in Sony cameras for a couple of years before they let other companies get them. And then only after Sony came up the "stacked" one inch chips, which again, they will keep for themselves for a while. The camera division gives them the means to get the most profit out of new innovative chips as they are introduced, before they let other companies get them.
I don't think you understand the Sensor business. There are other players and all share the technology. Some sensors said to be made by Sony are made by Toshiba. Same goes for Panasonic. If Sony withheld a new sensor, Samsung could replace it easily.

Ironically, according to DxO Sony's best APSC sensor in a Sony body ranks around 5th or 6th among APSC sensors. I doubt Sony will be making APSC cameras much longer too.
 
Don't overlook that Sony makes more camera sensors than anyone else and they make the most innovative and sophisticated ones. And Sony knows something that no other company knows... which is what the manufacturing cost of their sensors are now and what they will be in the years ahead. Sony can plan decades ahead on camera planning like no other company can... and with that knowledge they are pushing full frame. Sony is actually the company I am the least concerned about.
Remember the photographers who preferred the OVF who were disappointed with Sony switching exclusively to SLTs? Remember the entry level SLT owners who thought Sony would rival the Canon Rebel series? Remember the mirrorless owners who bought into NEX because it was a small portable system with inexpensive pancake type lenses?

Well, Sony doesn't remember any of them either.

There is a good chance we many never see another new SLT body or APSC lens from Sony again.

The cameras not in jeopardy these days are Canon and Nikon.
I was just discussing this tonight with my neighbor (he was a long time A mount shooter). His gist of A mount goes like this; Sony offered a decent range of DSLR, both FF and apsc. They then dropped their FF, leaving FF lens owners without any real upgrade path. Then they pull the rug from the rest of them who prefer an OVF by going full SLT.

Then they offer a FF that isn't comparable in sensor IQ to other FF and is overpriced. My neighbor had an A900 as of a year ago and said he had no reason to upgrade to anything current in A mount. AF is better, that's it. VF, sensor IQ, battery life, pixel counts, nothing in 2014 was actually better than the A900 from so long ago (he said 2008).

The hotshoe change didn't make him happy either. He said he didn't necessarily need more flashes but the constant changing of their minds was a sign to leave. As you say Siobhan, E mount has it's same issues now. First apsc, once it looks like they are making progress, they mention apsc glass is an afterthought. Now it's apsc cameras taking a back seat to their FF.

I think that thread in E mount forums said it well enough, they want to direct their growth at pros, namely wedding shooters and studio shooters. That's gonna very much alienate the consumer man who is far more common than the pros with deep pockets. Having good, or even the best sensors, has zero impact on whether they will continue making cameras, or even just continue making the same cameras.

--
"The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason" - Ben Franklin
 
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If they stop selling cameras there's really not much left for them to do.

Anyone else can take a hit and loose that part of their business, assuming it is still making a profit. Not Nikon, they pretty much have to keep their customer buying their cameras in order to survive.

Canon sells printers and copier, I hear selling ink remains very profitable.

Olympus is apparently still pretty big in medical imaging?

Panasonic, Sony and Samsung are just big.

For Sony, selling cameras is probably much like Ford making the GT40 or participate in any racing, it helps drive technology, testing and maybe some marketing.
 
The way I see it, we have about 7 major players, with 8 established systems. Fuji with X, Nikon and Canon (im not including Nikon 1), Pentax K mount (not including Q), Sony with 3 systems, and Olympus and Panasonic with MFT. If somebody is brand new to the camera industry, this could be a very confusing decision.
Interesting you count Nikon and Canon as one but don't count Canon M (or Nikon 1) and you don't split Nikon and Canon into APSC and FF yet you do Sony....even though Sony FF cameras can use Sony Apsc lenses more than Canon can use theirs,
Conventional wisdom says that the best selling items are the safest to return, but this isn't always a black and white deal. Some companies have a lower profit threshold before they decide to call it quits, some are even willing to lose money just to play the game (more likely if the loss isn't huge, or if they have deep pockets). My first thought is Canon, the biggest, probably the most popular, followed closely by Nikon.

These two seem very close on the surface, although Canon seem to be more financially stable from what I read (sensor IQ aside, making your own sensors is a benefit to stability). Canon is just bigger in the wallet, although I still think they are both safe from disaster due to the immense popularity, and both have amazing lens selections.

Next, in no particular order, we have Fuji. I have also heard Fuji, while not as popular in the camera market, have big financial backing. How they would put up with losses I have no idea, and I haven't seen any data. Similar to Pentax, the Fuji following seem to be very loyal, and they are very unique in their design (if a little behind the curve in tech, still using 16mp). If I were going to bet on a last-man-standing of the mirrorless bunch, Fuji would be one of the two I would bet on (the other being Panasonic).

Pentax seems another safe bet similar to Canon and Nikon. Not because it's anywhere near as popular, but it has a very loyal consumer base and a whole lot of money to back it up now that Ricoh is paying the bills. FF on the way is a good sign, the system is growing rather than the other way around, and they hold an important segment of the industry, the "outdoorsman" system. Everywhere I look, Ricoh/Pentax appeal to the "rugged" consumer. Yes there are other tough cameras like the D4 but one can buy a fully sealed Pentax K50 w/sealed kit lens for under $400.
Ricoh is not as big a company as some seem to think.
Sony is a bit of an unknown to me. I hear a lot about financial data where they are losing money hand over fist, yet they keep pushing forward with FE mount. A-mount has grown rather stale, seemingly getting put on the back burner (I have heard rumors of new cameras, but only rumors) with some downsizing going on in the past removing the A3x line and A6x line. In Sony ML, there is a thread in Sony apsc E mount about Sony focusing on FE instead (there is lots of talk from users about swapping MFG due to this). FE is full steam ahead but many don't see it as a complete system even today.
Just looks to me like more of your anti Sony bias showing (and I suspect the reason you made the thread maybe...certainly in part)?
MFT rounds out the list. I have also read Olympus is in trouble, with dwindling sales as well as not being a financial giant. Panasonic on the other hand is supposed to be similar to Canon or Pentax, lots of money to throw around for future investment. MFT seems to be a growing system, if only held back by the lack of prestige due to the smaller sensor. Then we seemingly have a wedge being driven by Panasonic, with it's DFD only working with Panasonic lenses, and now the GX8 debuting a hybrid IS system which of course, is only fully functional with Panasonic OIS glass.

Without starting a troll war,
LOL that is exactly what you intended.

I would personally be weary of both Olympus and Sony. Olympus is a smaller player, both financially and status wise. Their partner in crime seems to be separating themselves, almost developing their own system so to speak. Sony on the other hand can't make up their mind where to go. Abandoning one group of people after another isn't the way to develop a loyal user base, but they seem to have their agenda, consumer be damned.
A mount camera users will still be able to use their lenses even if Sony does not go further with A mount so there will still be cameras for them.

I see no sign that Sony is abandoning APSC either....and again it is E mount (one mount)
So what do you guys think? Are there clear lines as to a safe bet (as safe as can reasonably be expected) for a lifetime of ownership? Are there any brands that are on shaky ground? Feel free to just speculate or add financial and sales data.
 
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Zero polycabonate wrote:Without starting a troll war, I would personally be weary of both Olympus and Sony.
Olympus' camera division has been losing money for years, but they continue to make cameras out of pure stubbornness. I don't expect that to change any time soon.
The same applies to Sigma.
Within the mirrorless sector, Sony has a dominant market share, so I suspect that they will continue to make cameras.

I don't know how "emotionally committed" Ricoh (Pentax) and Panasonic are to staying in the camera business.

Nikon is the most exposed to a general downturn in the camera sales, because "more than two-thirds of its revenue" comes from cameras. (Source: Reuters) They can't afford to abandon the camera business, but have tough times ahead.
 
That's the guy who has the long run leverage. Look at Samsung and how they have eventually dominated smartphone sales volume. Currently there are four companies left that can build 100% of their cameras in house. Sigma, Samsung, Canon and Sony. Sigma does it on a smaller scale, Samsung doesn't do FF yet, Canon has retro sensors and Sony is fairly new compared to the other players (except Samsung). All the other manufacturers depend on others for parts to make their cameras. You know what happens when you depend on others.
Sony are fairly new to still cameras but they have a long history in professional video.
 

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