Maybe Canon isn't doomed

The recent release of the A9iii with a global shutter has caught everyones imagination, especially in regards to sports & fast action and the question of if & when Canon can respond & the usual Canon is doomed rhetoric has abounded.

I think Canon will be just fine. At the recently completed Rugby World Cup Canon was pretty well represented:


And despite the release of this new camera it would not surprise me to see them just as well represented at the on-going cricket world cup & next years Olympics.

Unfortunatly that will not turn back time and let Richie or Jordie kick the goals that would have won us the world cup or stop my SA mates being ever so smug for the next 4 years.

Myles Baker said:

The recent release of the A9iii with a global shutter has caught everyones imagination, especially in regards to sports & fast action and the question of if & when Canon can respond & the usual Canon is doomed rhetoric has abounded.

I think Canon will be just fine. At the recently completed Rugby World Cup Canon was pretty well represented:

https://sg.canon/en/consumer/compri...-used-during-rugby-world-cup-france-2023/news

And despite the release of this new camera it would not surprise me to see them just as well represented at the on-going cricket world cup & next years Olympics.

Unfortunatly that will not turn back time and let Richie or Jordie kick the goals that would have won us the world cup or stop my SA mates being ever so smug for the next 4 years.

Click to expand...

Wasn't that Nikon that just a few years ago had it's entire body already in the coffin, it only needed to get it's head in and start driving in the nails!? In the nick of time it was saved by, I think it was the Z7? Even the Nikon boys were already buying flowers!

Canon has been doing pretty well and it's flagship is a DSLR released 4 years ago! LoL

I'm sure every companies next Flagships will all have GS's. As per the recent thread on GS's, except for a very scant few, nobody even cares!

John

Sony, Canon, Nikon can all do well in this space. To many people look at it as a zero sum game. They think someone has to fail for the others to succeed, instead of looking at it as it is, which is they all make great products, they will all release their next flagship on their schedule, which will be praised by the faithful and scorned by those invested in other systems & the people who actually use them will keep on using them to take great photos.

This year, Canon forecasts that they will sell 2.9 million interchangeable-lens cameras, for a market share of (2.9/5.85) almost 50%. They forecast that their camera-only revenue this year will be +8.2% compared to last year.

JohnSil said:

Wasn't that Nikon that just a few years ago had it's entire body already in the coffin, it only needed to get it's head in and start driving in the nails!? In the nick of time it was saved by, I think it was the Z7? Even the Nikon boys were already buying flowers!

Click to expand...

Nikon Imaging managed to "gracefully shrink". Their market share is only 13%, but that division is profitable.

Myles Baker said:

Sony, Canon, Nikon can all do well in this space. To many people look at it as a zero sum game. They think someone has to fail for the others to succeed, instead of looking at it as it is, which is they all make great products, they will all release their next flagship on their schedule, which will be praised by the faithful and scorned by those invested in other systems & the people who actually use them will keep on using them to take great photos.

Click to expand...

Sony is taking a share from someone. 10 years ago, it would have been just Canon or Nikon, now we are starting to see Sony show up alongside. Still a smaller share, probably because all that long glass becomes a huge replacement cause for switchers

Myles Baker said:

Maybe Canon isn't doomed

Click to expand...

Canon can't be doomed as long as it's protected by a nice big cr1pple hammer!

Myles Baker said:

The recent release of the A9iii with a global shutter has caught everyones imagination, especially in regards to sports & fast action and the question of if & when Canon can respond & the usual Canon is doomed rhetoric has abounded.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure why anyone would be saying this. Canon will outlive us all, and our last photos will probably be taken by someone holding their cameras (those classy people that aren't holding phones, that is). Heh.

My impression of Canon is they are very conservative & not as hungry as Sony (nobody is), but they always react to their competition, eventually. Often with many 'cr!pple hammer' iterations before getting serious. Doing just enough to retain (if not, gain) customers and maintain market share. While I have been burned by their Cr!pple Hammer ways, I have to admire that. Nikon has been the big casualty of Sony's rise to number 2, but even Nikon is back on the horse now, so it's going to be interesting.

Sure, the Northrops replace entire $30,000 camera systems every two weeks and make YouTube videos proclaiming, “Why we dropped Canon forever!”… but normal people don’t do this.



Maybe the tier one credentialed pros will go to Sony’s station and borrow $30,000 of Sony gear at the next Olympics, but normal photographers don’t switch brands every time Manufacturer A has leapfrogged Manufacturer B.



I have had my set of f/2.8 Canon L zooms since 2018 and that’s it. For me, there is nothing a manufacturer can put in a camera body to convince me to sell them and buy all new. I have the adapter and I’m happy as a clam. It’s hard to make a living as a photographer these days and outside of YouTube people trying to be flashy and show off, it’s just silly and unnecessary to spend $10,000’s every year on equipment.

According to some DPR members, Canon's photography business is usually in dire straits and will collapse in the short-term unless they immediately respond to [enter a recent competitive announcement]. This has been rather routine over the last 10-15 years as I recall.


Cheers,
Doug

Myles Baker said:

Sony, Canon, Nikon can all do well in this space. To many people look at it as a zero sum game.

Click to expand...

It's a fixed sum game (with an exception I'll get to). The number of pros and agencies buying the top pro line is fairly fixed in size, and has been for quite some time. It used to be that Canon and Nikon fully owned that group, now Sony has shouldered their way in. From anyone in that group—I am, for instance—having three companies competing is actually a benefit. Competition is always good, and more frequent iteration by one company means that the company I've chosen has to eventually respond in some useful way to stay competitive.

So, the exception: amateurs. They're much more prone to hyped marketing messages and have greater anxiety over having "the best." The pros look more closely at whether there's a real, tangible benefit for their usage.

For instance, raw files at 120 fps on the A9 Mark III. The amateurs are all picking up on that versus the max 20 fps of the Z9. Only this: when I'm photographing things that need high frame rates on my Z9 I'm actually using JPEG, and I'm getting 60 fps at ~20mp. Is 120 fps at 24mp really going to make me non-competitive? Probably not. But to an amateur 120 versus 20 is a 6x improvement ;~). Oh, did I mention that my clients don't want raw files? ;~)

The issue for Canon, Nikon, and Sony is when one of them can introduce a marketing message that resonates outside the pro market. That's because the bulk of the R3, A1, A9, Z8, Z9 unit sales are not to pros, but to amateurs. So getting the amateurs to gush over the marketing message and run to their stores with their credit cards out can be disruptive to profitability of the other companies. Which means they have to respond. Ain't competition great?

Doug J said:

According to some DPR members, Canon's photography business is usually in dire straits and will collapse in the short-term unless they immediately respond to [enter a recent competitive announcement]. This has been rather routine over the last 10-15 years as I recall.

Cheers,
Doug

Click to expand...

I was about to post something very much like that myself.

Canon has been N1 for over 20 years having about half of the total market during that period but consistently someone here has to predict its imminent demise because of having lost the plot or something like that.

So many experts, so little knowledge.

BTW, I don't use Canon.

FrancoD said:

Doug J said:

According to some DPR members, Canon's photography business is usually in dire straits and will collapse in the short-term unless they immediately respond to [enter a recent competitive announcement]. This has been rather routine over the last 10-15 years as I recall.

Cheers,
Doug

Click to expand...

I was about to post something very much like that myself.

Canon has been N1 for over 20 years having about half of the total market during that period but consistently someone here has to predict its imminent demise because of having lost the plot or something like that.

So many experts, so little knowledge.

BTW, I don't use Canon.

Click to expand...

I guess 20 years hasn't taught Canon anything! Well actually it has. IF the a larger EOS mount can get you to #1, then an even BIGGER mount can help you STAY there!!! LoL

You think the "So many experts, so little knowledge"' are something, the ones with less knowledge than that, like to swing the "crippple hammer" around like it was REAL!!!

John

FrancoD said:

Doug J said:

According to some DPR members, Canon's photography business is usually in dire straits and will collapse in the short-term unless they immediately respond to [enter a recent competitive announcement]. This has been rather routine over the last 10-15 years as I recall.

Cheers,
Doug

Click to expand...

I was about to post something very much like that myself.

Canon has been N1 for over 20 years having about half of the total market during that period but consistently someone here has to predict its imminent demise because of having lost the plot or something like that.

So many experts, so little knowledge.

BTW, I don't use Canon.

Click to expand...

Only future can tell there have been many companies deemed to big to fail which have failed in the past.

But as it looks at the moment I do not think that any camera company is deemed to fail within the close future.

For everything else I need my crystal ball back from it's repair.

Very unlikely Canon, Nikon or Sony will ever go out of business. All of them have product lines outside of the camera space.

Canon and Nikon, for example, both make equipment for semiconductor manufacturing.

That they may decide to quit the camera business if and when it no longer aligns with their corporate goals is another story.

binmaa said:

FrancoD said:

Doug J said:

According to some DPR members, Canon's photography business is usually in dire straits and will collapse in the short-term unless they immediately respond to [enter a recent competitive announcement]. This has been rather routine over the last 10-15 years as I recall.

Cheers,
Doug

Click to expand...

I was about to post something very much like that myself.

Canon has been N1 for over 20 years having about half of the total market during that period but consistently someone here has to predict its imminent demise because of having lost the plot or something like that.

So many experts, so little knowledge.

BTW, I don't use Canon.

Click to expand...

Only future can tell there have been many companies deemed to big to fail which have failed in the past.

But as it looks at the moment I do not think that any camera company is deemed to fail within the close future.

For everything else I need my crystal ball back from it's repair.

Click to expand...

I've heard that "no company is too big to fall" argument since the start of DPReview.

My point has always been that there is a tiny chance that the people at Canon have a bit more of a clue than some of those detractors here.

But of course is like listening to a Man United fan alking about Liverpool.

Having made a living selling cameras , most brands, I'm not like that. The brand that I am using is simply the one I opted for at the time it doesn't make it the best because I have it.

FrancoD said:

binmaa said:

FrancoD said:

Doug J said:

According to some DPR members, Canon's photography business is usually in dire straits and will collapse in the short-term unless they immediately respond to [enter a recent competitive announcement]. This has been rather routine over the last 10-15 years as I recall.

Cheers,
Doug

Click to expand...

I was about to post something very much like that myself.

Canon has been N1 for over 20 years having about half of the total market during that period but consistently someone here has to predict its imminent demise because of having lost the plot or something like that.

So many experts, so little knowledge.

BTW, I don't use Canon.

Click to expand...

Only future can tell there have been many companies deemed to big to fail which have failed in the past.

But as it looks at the moment I do not think that any camera company is deemed to fail within the close future.

For everything else I need my crystal ball back from it's repair.

Click to expand...

I've heard that "no company is too big to fall" argument since the start of DPReview.

My point has always been that there is a tiny chance that the people at Canon have a bit more of a clue than some of those detractors here.

But of course is like listening to a Man United fan alking about Liverpool.

Having made a living selling cameras , most brands, I'm not like that. The brand that I am using is simply the one I opted for at the time it doesn't make it the best because I have it.

Click to expand...

For me it is not arguing against Canon or any company. But there are things like Nokia phones which just prove what I am saying. No matter how big you are a series of bad decissions can still be your doom.

Having more knowledge about the market does not protect anyone from bad decissions. But the bigger you are the more bad decissions are needed to bring you down.

So it would probably take a lot for Canon to get pushed out of the camera business. But none of us can foresee that. So I personally would not care about such discussions. There is a possibility for every company to fail and for every company to survive no matter how big they are.

binmaa said:

FrancoD said:

binmaa said:

FrancoD said:

Doug J said:

According to some DPR members, Canon's photography business is usually in dire straits and will collapse in the short-term unless they immediately respond to [enter a recent competitive announcement]. This has been rather routine over the last 10-15 years as I recall.

Cheers,
Doug

Click to expand...

I was about to post something very much like that myself.

Canon has been N1 for over 20 years having about half of the total market during that period but consistently someone here has to predict its imminent demise because of having lost the plot or something like that.

So many experts, so little knowledge.

BTW, I don't use Canon.

Click to expand...

Only future can tell there have been many companies deemed to big to fail which have failed in the past.

But as it looks at the moment I do not think that any camera company is deemed to fail within the close future.

For everything else I need my crystal ball back from it's repair.

Click to expand...

I've heard that "no company is too big to fall" argument since the start of DPReview.

My point has always been that there is a tiny chance that the people at Canon have a bit more of a clue than some of those detractors here.

But of course is like listening to a Man United fan alking about Liverpool.

Having made a living selling cameras , most brands, I'm not like that. The brand that I am using is simply the one I opted for at the time it doesn't make it the best because I have it.

Click to expand...

For me it is not arguing against Canon or any company. But there are things like Nokia phones which just prove what I am saying. No matter how big you are a series of bad decissions can still be your doom.

Having more knowledge about the market does not protect anyone from bad decissions. But the bigger you are the more bad decissions are needed to bring you down.

So it would probably take a lot for Canon to get pushed out of the camera business. But none of us can foresee that. So I personally would not care about such discussions. There is a possibility for every company to fail and for every company to survive no matter how big they are.

Click to expand...

Nokia had revenue of about $25 billion last year. They aren’t hurting.

Thom Hogan said:

Myles Baker said:

Sony, Canon, Nikon can all do well in this space. To many people look at it as a zero sum game.

Click to expand...

It's a fixed sum game (with an exception I'll get to). The number of pros and agencies buying the top pro line is fairly fixed in size, and has been for quite some time. It used to be that Canon and Nikon fully owned that group, now Sony has shouldered their way in. From anyone in that group—I am, for instance—having three companies competing is actually a benefit. Competition is always good, and more frequent iteration by one company means that the company I've chosen has to eventually respond in some useful way to stay competitive.

So, the exception: amateurs. They're much more prone to hyped marketing messages and have greater anxiety over having "the best." The pros look more closely at whether there's a real, tangible benefit for their usage.

For instance, raw files at 120 fps on the A9 Mark III. The amateurs are all picking up on that versus the max 20 fps of the Z9. Only this: when I'm photographing things that need high frame rates on my Z9 I'm actually using JPEG, and I'm getting 60 fps at ~20mp. Is 120 fps at 24mp really going to make me non-competitive? Probably not. But to an amateur 120 versus 20 is a 6x improvement ;~). Oh, did I mention that my clients don't want raw files? ;~)

Click to expand...

Who is Sony targeting with raw files at 120 fps? Seems like that is a by-product of the global shutter which is the real treat.

Thom Hogan said:

The issue for Canon, Nikon, and Sony is when one of them can introduce a marketing message that resonates outside the pro market. That's because the bulk of the R3, A1, A9, Z8, Z9 unit sales are not to pros, but to amateurs. So getting the amateurs to gush over the marketing message and run to their stores with their credit cards out can be disruptive to profitability of the other companies. Which means they have to respond. Ain't competition great?

Click to expand...

All Bushs Fault said:

Who is Sony targeting with raw files at 120 fps?

Click to expand...

Good question, as I noted. It isn't really me, though as I've written elsewhere I do like the ability to on-button-press override the set fps to the highest one. I can imagine times when I'd like to look at just a critical moment more closely.

All Bushs Fault said:

Seems like that is a by-product of the global shutter which is the real treat.

Click to expand...

120 Hz is a common theme within the current digital camera designs. So 120 fps aligns with what the BIONZ processor is already doing and the EVF updates, as well.

Having used a "rolling" shutter for 50 years (mechanical shutters "roll"), I'm still not seeing the clear benefit for still photography a global shutter gives me. On the other hand, it's really clear how that improves the video side.