Z9 serial numbers (continuation thread)

The previous thread has reached the 150 posts limit.

At 28th February serial numbers for the EU and USA series numbers seemed each to end around 6,400.

At 31st March in USA they ended around 7,750.

We have just been told of around 8,400 in USA at 14th April.

A prediction of around 9,200 for USA by 30th April seems reasonable.

The implication, based of an adequate time scale, seems to be about 1,300 a month being delivered to USA.

These numbers might give some consolation to those in the queue.

The following post is part of the previous thread I started back in January 2021. As of mid January, the serial numbers in the US were in the 3004000 range: https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/65882241

By the final post (as it hit the 150-post limit) on April 15, 2021, it hit the 3008400 range: https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/66089555

In other words, the US serial numbers advanced by about 4400 in 3 months. Very roughly speaking, world-wide Z9 shipment is approximately 5000 a month. Compared to about 8K to 9K D3 manufactured per month during the early part of its production cycle back in 2007/2008, IMO 5000 is a very low figure. It puzzles me why Nikon prices the Z9 so low; IMO they could have easily match the Sony A1's $6500 price tag. Most likely Nikon is still constrained by the chip shortage. The end result is that 3+ month since Nikon started shipping the Z9 on December 23, 2021, there is still pretty serious shortage. The recent firmware 2.0 improvements will likely stimulate more demand.

Back in 2018, I didn't bother to pre-order the Z6. As soon as Nikon started shipping them in November that year, B&H immediately had it in stock and I bought one. The serial number is 30069**. Apparently Nikon had produced a large batch of Z6 before shipping, not so for the Z9.

shuncheung said:

The following post is part of the previous thread I started back in January 2021. As of mid January, the serial numbers in the US were in the 3004000 range: https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/65882241

By the final post (as it hit the 150-post limit) on April 15, 2021, it hit the 3008400 range: https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/66089555

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In your above dates, did you mean 2022?

Ken Seals said:

shuncheung said:

The following post is part of the previous thread I started back in January 2021. As of mid January, the serial numbers in the US were in the 3004000 range: https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/65882241

By the final post (as it hit the 150-post limit) on April 15, 2021, it hit the 3008400 range: https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/66089555

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In your above dates, did you mean 2022.

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Of course. Why did I type 2021?

Received my Z9 today, ordered the morning of 11/3, Serial #30082XX.

Tom Stites said:

Received my Z9 today, ordered the morning of 11/3, Serial #30082XX.

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Congratulations. Did you order from Adorama? I am afraid B&H is still working on day 1, October 28, 2021 orders.

Thanks and yes, was ordered from Adorama along with 24-120 and FTZ II which were received in early March and just before Christmas, respectively. Was hoping that it might already have 2.0 FW, but no such luck...will have to wait another day or so.

Tom Stites said:

Thanks and yes, was ordered from Adorama along with 24-120 and FTZ II which were received in early March and just before Christmas, respectively. Was hoping that it might already have 2.0 FW, but no such luck...will have to wait another day or so.

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Yeah, I understand Adorama is working on early November orders while B&H is still on October 28 afternoon EST orders.

I just downloaded Z9 firmware 1.11 again, ahead of the 2.0 release, so that in case I need to roll back, I still have the old version around. The 1.11 binary file has a January 21 time stamp. I received my Z9 from Amazon in early March, but it still had 1.10 and I needed to update it myself.

Ricci mentioned that he has done the 2.0 upgrade several times, and it take around 6 minutes. I would make sure that the battery is fully charged before that upgrade. In case the battery is exhausted, which is unlikely given the high-power EN-EL18D, the Z9 could be left in a useless state in the middle of the upgrade.

I ordered my Z9 on January 16th from a local camera store. I picked it up today (April 22nd) 30081XX

When I ordered in Jan they had 9 people ahead of me. Today they told me there was 5 people still waiting. They didn’t get any cameras from March to April and today they said they got 3 Z9s.

ordered Dec 17 - Mikes Camera in Colorado

30187xx

PaulDunlopPhotography said:

ordered Dec 17 - Mikes Camera in Colorado

30187xx

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Mine is in the same serial number range and shipped on the same day that you reported in a different reply.

This table includes the data from an earlier reply in this thread (the reported numbers were already in rounded figures): https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/66092359



It's pretty hard to believe that during this last week the rate of shipments would have been 8X higher than during the first three weeks when Nikon was shipping out of built-up inventory. I think there's another explanation.

--
Wag more; bark less.

just Tony said:

PaulDunlopPhotography said:

ordered Dec 17 - Mikes Camera in Colorado

30187xx

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Mine is in the same serial number range and shipped on the same day that you reported in a different reply.

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Yours has also made a big jump from 30084xx to 30187xx??

just Tony said:

This table includes the data from an earlier reply in this thread (the reported numbers were already in rounded figures): https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/66092359

It's pretty hard to believe that during this last week the rate of shipments was 8X higher than during the first three weeks when Nikon was shipping out of built-up inventory. I think there's another explanation.

Conclusion: There may very well be a substantial gap in the US serial number range, so we can't draw very strong conclusions on shipment rates that are based on the reported numbers.

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I would treat the serial numbers from the first month separately. Nikon must have had a Z9 manufacturing build up for maybe 2, 3 months before they started shipping on December 23, 2021. How it sustains from February to March, March to April ... is more interesting.

But the sudden jump by 10,000 is puzzling.

shuncheung said:

just Tony said:

PaulDunlopPhotography said:

ordered Dec 17 - Mikes Camera in Colorado

30187xx

Click to expand...

Mine is in the same serial number range and shipped on the same day that you reported in a different reply.

Click to expand...

Yours has also made a big jump from 30084xx to 30187xx??

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Yes, same 30187xx block, same shipment day.

shuncheung said:

shuncheung said:

This table includes the data from an earlier reply in this thread (the reported numbers were already in rounded figures): https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/66092359

It's pretty hard to believe that during this last week the rate of shipments was 8X higher than during the first three weeks when Nikon was shipping out of built-up inventory. I think there's another explanation.

Conclusion: There may very well be a substantial gap in the US serial number range, so we can't draw very strong conclusions on shipment rates that are based on the reported numbers.

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I would treat the serial numbers from the first month separately.

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That's why I broke it out away from the 1/15 - 4/15 range.

shuncheung said:

Nikon must have had a Z9 manufacturing build up for maybe 2, 3 months before they started shipping on December 23, 2021.

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And they probably got every last one of those out the door pretty quickly. Air cargo flights outnumber Nikon assembly techs by a wide margin.

shuncheung said:

How it sustains from February to March, March to April ... is more interesting.

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A big unknown there though is the time-variant proportioning of shipments to different regions. A US-only data set can only establish a lower limit on the total production rate.

shuncheung said:

But the sudden jump by 10,000 is puzzling.

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It gets more interesting: if the 10000 jump wasn't there,and the late April SN was instead 3008700, then the daily rate for the last week by itself calculates at 43, right in the ballpark of the 1/15 - 4/15 rate.

One reason for such gaps is a mid-stream change in a process or a subassembly. Those have been reported for other Nikon camera bodies. I've done it myself at the companies where I've worked. None of us can say for sure without taking some step like teardowns of cameras made before and after a gap, if such a gap does indeed exist.

--
Wag more; bark less.

just Tony said:

It's pretty hard to believe that during this last week the rate of shipments would have been 8X higher than during the first three weeks when Nikon was shipping out of built-up inventory. I think there's another explanation.

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The figures might be distorted by Nikon USA getting a large batch once every 2 weeks.

In the UK Nikon Pros switching from D6 or switching to Nikon are reported as getting the Z9 in 2-3 weeks - pushing none NPS orders back in the queue.



--
Leonard Shepherd
In lots of ways good photography is much more about how equipment is used rather than anything else.

Leonard Shepherd said:

just Tony said:

It's pretty hard to believe that during this last week the rate of shipments would have been 8X higher than during the first three weeks when Nikon was shipping out of built-up inventory. I think there's another explanation.

Click to expand...

The figures might be distorted by Nikon USA getting a large batch once every 2 weeks.

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We need to inspect over a longer period to even out the short-term fluctuations. But I am sure Nikon USA did not flood the US market with 10,000 Z9 all of a sudden, or every store is going to have them in stock. ;-)

Leonard Shepherd said:

In the UK Nikon Pros switching from D6 or switching to Nikon are reported as getting the Z9 in 2-3 weeks - pushing none NPS orders back in the queue.

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shuncheung said:

But the sudden jump by 10,000 is puzzling.

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Nikon (and every other company) assigns serial numbers based on their own internal needs and whims, which they don't communicate to outsiders.

They feel no obligation whatsoever to assign them in strict numerical order starting with 0. There are many indications of this. They absolutely don't care if we can figure out production quantities from serial numbers; in fact, they probably prefer that we can't.

This is just one of many reasons why all these speculations about production numbers based on user-reported serial numbers are not reliable. I wish people would give it up.

peripheralfocus said:

shuncheung said:

But the sudden jump by 10,000 is puzzling.

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Nikon (and every other company) assigns serial numbers based on their own internal needs and whims, which they don't communicate to outsiders.

They feel no obligation whatsoever to assign them in strict numerical order starting with 0. There are many indications of this. They absolutely don't care if we can figure out production quantities from serial numbers; in fact, they probably prefer that we can't.

Click to expand...

I assume the reasons Nikon changing the serial number sequence is proprietary. For example, the EN-EL18a, EN-EL18b, and EN-EL18c batteries have the same specs: 10.8V, 2500mAh, 27Wh, and they are all rechargeable with the MH-26a charger. On the D5 and D6, there is no difference among them. I once asked a Nikon technical manager about the difference, and he gave me an ambiguous answer. However, now we know that only the B and C versions (plus the D) can be charged inside the Z9 and are compatible with the new MH-33 charger.

peripheralfocus said:

This is just one of many reasons why all these speculations about production numbers based on user-reported serial numbers are not reliable. I wish people would give it up.

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Actually most of the Z9 serial numbers have been steadily increasing, as we have been tracking them since Nikon started shipping it last December. This 10K jump is an exception that we immediately notice. Nobody says these numbers are absolutely correct to the last digit, but they do give us a very rough idea how many cameras Nikon is shipping to the US.

One more data point but there are lots of special circumstances.

I ordered from B&H on day 1 around 11:30 eastern. But my order was about to be fulfilled right as I was leaving the country for three weeks. I put my order on hold, and then B&H was on break for Passover.

I finally got it today and my number is 30082xx. Did B&H reserve my unit in March and just set it aside? Or did I get placed at the top? I have no idea, but just giving this additional data point for those who care.

I had a number of packages tampered with by FedEx over the past six months. I got some packages that were opened, had the lens removed, and resealed as "label damaged." So I was on pins and needles until I picked the package up.








So glad this was NOT my Z9 where the lens was removed from the box then sent to me as an empty package, even with the package redirected to Walgreens!



--
Instagram: @vcxz_photos

vcxz said:

One more data point but there are lots of special circumstances.

I ordered from B&H on day 1 around 11:30 eastern. But my order was about to be fulfilled right as I was leaving the country for three weeks. I put my order on hold, and then B&H was on break for Passover.

I finally got it today and my number is 30082xx. Did B&H reserve my unit in March and just set it aside? Or did I get placed at the top? I have no idea, but just giving this additional data point for those who care.

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Congratulations.

I believe your serial number is more consistent with those delivered in the US around mid-April, probably before B&H went on the Passover break. Of course, the latest ones in the US have 3018### serial numbers. Those delivered in early to mid March have 306 or 307 serial numbers. In other words, it sounds like B&H had shipped one originally allocated for you to someone else and then shipped you a more recent one when you were ready to receive it.

Yeah. Who knows why. It could be as stupid as a batch/lot of the serial number plates were lost or damaged. Maybe they were cosmetically defective. Maybe someone opened the wrong box of plates and they were applied. And when those run out they'll go back to the box containing the lower numbered S/N.

Who knows. It's useless speculation.