At least 2020 and probably 2021 will be the most exciting times for Canon in quite a while. What will Canon develop in the coming ten years? Will they maintain their sales dominance or will Sony and Nikon or others be able to gain sales equality? What does Canon have to do to keep their strong position?
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Will the coming decade be the decade of Canon?
- Thread starter Battersea
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ProDude
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The reality of advancements in technology are such that if a company has the financial and intelligence resources at their disposal (which I assure you Canon DOES) it would be very possible to leapfrog the levels of performance of their current lineup. You are not able to be a part of their engineering department with it's plethora of very capable engineers, who could very well behind our scenes, be developing technological breakthroughs that eclipse even the amazing focus capabilities available from Sony at this time.
Sony's mindset during these last few years has been completely different from most others. Sony set upon themselves the goal to move beyond current offerings in the photographic world into a new realm of technological advancement particularly with Mirrorless. They'd committed to this as you all know several years ago not yesterday.
That said if you look closely for the most part Canon had been VERY conservative in their approach to their offerings in the photographic world. I mean VERY. Much more so remaining married to the DSLR concepts (which even Nikon was a bit involved with as well) but if you notice Sony jumped in the Mirrorless pond years ago while others didn't even so much as sample the water.
Now if you've been following the rumor sites which have rather faithfully followed the tons of patents flowing out of the Canon engineering departments, it is near staggering. They've no doubt managed to keep their mirrorless advancement in their body developments fairly well covered. With all that said and known I have to say my predictions would be that you will finally see Canon come out of it's shell by 2022 (not 2020) and begin unleashing a bevy of new RF lenses from wide to long tele's that will set the market on it's ears. The performance will be setting standards even the G Masters would be jealous of. I do indeed believe we will by then have available, a FULL ProR type body emulating a integrated grip design even more ergonomically tailored than the 1DX type, with a very high resolution (even beyond the current 5.7mp) EVF. I also am quite sure the accuracy, tracking speeds and exposure benefits of the EVF by then will also completely eliminate desire for a OVF....NO question about it.
I'm also confident they will no doubt be offering a higher resolution version beyond the 60mp that will not have the higher rez issues of today's standards. They will NO question re do the battery design to offer more than competitive life to the Z Sony battery. I see to have a very high confidence Canon desires to recapture their crown that they last had in the original 1D days, of the finest professional and enthusiast cameras available. I do NOT believe for one minute Canon is living in the previous la la land of not realizing Sony's intentions of the #1 slot. I don't see them (as they have been) simply sitting back and taking the hits on their reputation into the future. Guess we'll just have to wait and see. I DO believe we will just be on the beginning stages of this revolution however in this coming 2020 year. I won't be surprised if we have to wait till at least September to see evidence of their intentions to recapture their glory days. We shall see won't we ;-)
Sony's mindset during these last few years has been completely different from most others. Sony set upon themselves the goal to move beyond current offerings in the photographic world into a new realm of technological advancement particularly with Mirrorless. They'd committed to this as you all know several years ago not yesterday.
That said if you look closely for the most part Canon had been VERY conservative in their approach to their offerings in the photographic world. I mean VERY. Much more so remaining married to the DSLR concepts (which even Nikon was a bit involved with as well) but if you notice Sony jumped in the Mirrorless pond years ago while others didn't even so much as sample the water.
Now if you've been following the rumor sites which have rather faithfully followed the tons of patents flowing out of the Canon engineering departments, it is near staggering. They've no doubt managed to keep their mirrorless advancement in their body developments fairly well covered. With all that said and known I have to say my predictions would be that you will finally see Canon come out of it's shell by 2022 (not 2020) and begin unleashing a bevy of new RF lenses from wide to long tele's that will set the market on it's ears. The performance will be setting standards even the G Masters would be jealous of. I do indeed believe we will by then have available, a FULL ProR type body emulating a integrated grip design even more ergonomically tailored than the 1DX type, with a very high resolution (even beyond the current 5.7mp) EVF. I also am quite sure the accuracy, tracking speeds and exposure benefits of the EVF by then will also completely eliminate desire for a OVF....NO question about it.
I'm also confident they will no doubt be offering a higher resolution version beyond the 60mp that will not have the higher rez issues of today's standards. They will NO question re do the battery design to offer more than competitive life to the Z Sony battery. I see to have a very high confidence Canon desires to recapture their crown that they last had in the original 1D days, of the finest professional and enthusiast cameras available. I do NOT believe for one minute Canon is living in the previous la la land of not realizing Sony's intentions of the #1 slot. I don't see them (as they have been) simply sitting back and taking the hits on their reputation into the future. Guess we'll just have to wait and see. I DO believe we will just be on the beginning stages of this revolution however in this coming 2020 year. I won't be surprised if we have to wait till at least September to see evidence of their intentions to recapture their glory days. We shall see won't we ;-)
ZX11
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The tech industry is so flash in the pan. I am sure Canon will do okay but keep their strong position with tech being the way it is,...impossible to say.
By the time my EOS R wears out and my collection of glass isn't a thing, my truck will likely have advanced to fulfill all my photography needs (and my smart watch).
Currently the truck uses seven cameras to produce a top down view of the truck and everything around it. The 2029 version of my truck will likely take beautiful shallow DOF shots of my dog as we walk up to it. Taken by combining it's 16+ onboard Canon branded cameras that came with the car stereo upgrade package.
thunder storm
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All I know is i love the low light AF of my R.
007peter
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Unlike Nikon poor Z-roll-out. Canon has been hitting STRIDE
In just 1 year, Canon has nearly fulfilled all the critical lens, going forward there will be cheaper consumers lens as well as 3rd party Sigma / Tamron / Viltrox to look forward to
Future looks BRIGHT for Canon (R) system.
I do like Nikon Z6, but I am disappointed by its poor lens lineup and SLOW-AS-SNAIL releases. If Nikon don't hurry up, a big chuck of buyers is already Solidifying between Canon (R) vs Sony A7. Nikon might become a distant memory or a distant third like a Pentax is to Canon/Nikon DSLR dominance. Time is running out for Nikon, hurry up with the Z lens release.
- Instead of giving us an USELESS MANUAL (cannot be use for wedding or video)
- at a ridiculous $8000 Nikkor 58mm f/0.95
- Canon give us an actually useful AUTOFOCUS
- $3000 Canon RF 28-70mm f/2L USM Lens. great for weddings, and silently focus for making wedding video
- $2600 Canon RF 85mm f/1.2L USM Lens
- $2100 Canon RF 50mm f/1.2L USM Lens
- $2700 Canon RF 70-200mm f/2.8L IS USM Lens
- $2300 Canon RF 24-70mm f/2.8L IS USM Lens
- $2300 Canon RF 15-35mm f/2.8L IS USM Lens
In just 1 year, Canon has nearly fulfilled all the critical lens, going forward there will be cheaper consumers lens as well as 3rd party Sigma / Tamron / Viltrox to look forward to
Future looks BRIGHT for Canon (R) system.
I do like Nikon Z6, but I am disappointed by its poor lens lineup and SLOW-AS-SNAIL releases. If Nikon don't hurry up, a big chuck of buyers is already Solidifying between Canon (R) vs Sony A7. Nikon might become a distant memory or a distant third like a Pentax is to Canon/Nikon DSLR dominance. Time is running out for Nikon, hurry up with the Z lens release.
I too hope Nikon succeeds.
No one can tell the future but from R lenses perspective, it is looking good so far. From consumer perspective, I hope that there will be a lot of competitions from various manufacturers. It would drive down the cost and have a lot of innovation.
maiaibing
Veteran Member
Canon not only lost serious ground during the last 10 years - they lost all pretence of being the market and innovation leader. If they do not start to catch up they will lose their lead entirely when we hit 2030.
Apple, Google etc. are today's undisputed camera leaders and innovators. And the lead is in every single area: optics, usability, interconnectedness, autofocus, color science, exposure control etc. etc. the list just goes on and on. No way Canon is coming back from behind.
On top Canon the last ten years also showed lots of complacency to the rapidly changing SLR market conditions. The result has been ever lower Canon sales most of the decade. Some due to people not wanting large and difficult to operate cameras that are unconnected to the internet, some due to missing out on the mirrorless revolution.
Change is needed if Canon wants to remain in the lead of the now fully marginalised and still shrinking SLR camera segment. We will see if change is coming.
walter g1
Senior Member
That's a tough one. The way I look at it Canon has to have all their Full Frame cameras models out by the end of 2021. To be on an even footing camera wise with Sony. If they go beyond that Sony could roll out new models.
The good thing for Canon is Sony has already updated most of there models.
The only Sony Full Frame that's likely to be released this year is the A7siii, and that's a big if. Sony said it wouldn't be released until everything was right. I have a feeling it will be this year with a new sensor and tech.
Now Sony could pull a suprise with an early release of the a7iv.
Depending on how well RP sales go I wouldn't be suprised if Sony had an A5 prototype already finished. The A5 has been a ruomor for years but Sony never had a reason to release it. The RP might be that reason.
That being said I think 2020 and 2021 will be very exciting times for Canon.
As for dominance and what the next ten years bring that's the tough part. It depends alot on the market, but it also depends heavily on how fast the DSLR market dies. If Canon or Nikon misjudges how quick they need to make the changeover, Sony could easily take over as number one.
Let's just say we live in interesting times.
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Canon make cameras. Lumps of plastic and glass and a bit of magnesium. Inanimate. Disposable.
Cant say I am that bothered if Canon are still making cameras 20 years from now.
EF and R lenses will still work on someone's camera. Adaptors make mirrorless pretty flexible from brand to brand. I am shooting EF glass on an S1R these days !
Canon isn't a tribe or a culture.
I am committed to mirrorless. Right now they make some very nice R lenses but the bodies are kind of dumb with bad design choices and lacking key features. I hope future R bodies are better but if they aren't I can't say I'm going to be that bothered.
Cant say I am that bothered if Canon are still making cameras 20 years from now.
EF and R lenses will still work on someone's camera. Adaptors make mirrorless pretty flexible from brand to brand. I am shooting EF glass on an S1R these days !
Canon isn't a tribe or a culture.
I am committed to mirrorless. Right now they make some very nice R lenses but the bodies are kind of dumb with bad design choices and lacking key features. I hope future R bodies are better but if they aren't I can't say I'm going to be that bothered.
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ZX11
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Yep, if Canon isn't there, some other company will be so why be bothered. GoPro FF ILC cameras that are small, durable, and waterproof?
Adapting an EF mount lens to another brand's mirrorless seems simple, minus the lens data translating to another body. But adapting an RF mirrorless mount to another mirrorless, seems much more difficult or impossible due to the lens to sensor distance.
Add a lens system to the adapter so the RF can be mounted further from the A7III's body, thereby making room for the adapter between the sensor and lens?
Of the three, Nikon probably has the least R&D money to spend. They called their Z-series development costs "a burden" and say they want to reduce R&D expenses. They also forecast that their imaging division will have a 10 billion yen operating loss this fiscal year.
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Funny Valentine
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I don't think so. Canon is willingly crippling it's own prosumers cameras to protect their pro lineup, so those who are serious about photography will eventually move to Fuji (medium format) for better image quality or Olympus (m43) for better portability. Full frame has no reason to exist these days, since it's a an in between format with a lot of compromises. People who want quality will go medium format. People who want portability will go m43. Full frame is bound to disappear.
aftab
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The camera industry didn't know the cellphone will suffocate them. A disruptive technology may emerge and cellphone may cause more damage. If we assume that the next decade will be the decade of mirrorless then Canon most likely will dominate the market. There are several reasons.
1. It is not difficult to understand why Canon continued with DSLR that long and didn't put all their effort into mirrorless. Canon is now serious about mirrorless. They have the money and talent to be competitive/superior in mirrorless technology. They lacked serious intention. Now they don't.
2. But it is not all about technology. Canon knows how to make great cameras and lenses which more people love to use compared to any other brand. This has to do with ergonomics, the menu system, usable LCD and ease of use. Just think about it, the best technology company can't make as good an LCD as Canon does. Most of these aspects are subjective but these have more effect on buying decisions than we tend to believe in these forums.
3. Photojournalists and other pros used to be the influencers at the beginning of the digital era (they still are). Canon dominated this segment. Now, we also have internet influencers, especially vloggers. With flip-out LCD and DPAF Canon dominated this segment too despite the fact that the most vocal bloggers were against Canon. Canon has targeted this vocal segment (as well as pros) with the initial RF lens line up. Vloggers are raving about these lenses (and other things). As a result, the number of 'Í am switching back to Canon' Youtubers are increasing every day. Here is a random one.
Read the comments too.
4. Canon colors, subjective but very important reason. All YouTubers coming back or new to Canon mention this to be one of the most important reasons for buying EOS R.
5. Outside the bubble of the forums, the overwhelming majority of people still shoot DSLR and 90% or more of them use Canon or Nikon. A very small number of them started to taste mirrorless with the release of R and Z cameras and the rest will eventually make the move. The rest don't care about mirrorless because their DSLRs just work. When they make the move over the next few years Canon (and Nikon) will be ready to take them. If Canon (and Nikon) can create the reverse 'switching back' movement with just two cameras and a handful of lenses, imagine what will happen when the system matures in 2-3 years.
6. The usual stuff like the most extensive support, reputation, name recognition, etc.
7. In these forums, we underestimate the emotional and subjective aspects of buying decisions. For these reasons Canon won't have to be #1 in technology to be the most dominant force in mirrorless in the coming decade, they just need to be close enough.
Again, read the comments too.
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https://www.flickr.com/photos/catch45/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/aftab/
1. It is not difficult to understand why Canon continued with DSLR that long and didn't put all their effort into mirrorless. Canon is now serious about mirrorless. They have the money and talent to be competitive/superior in mirrorless technology. They lacked serious intention. Now they don't.
2. But it is not all about technology. Canon knows how to make great cameras and lenses which more people love to use compared to any other brand. This has to do with ergonomics, the menu system, usable LCD and ease of use. Just think about it, the best technology company can't make as good an LCD as Canon does. Most of these aspects are subjective but these have more effect on buying decisions than we tend to believe in these forums.
3. Photojournalists and other pros used to be the influencers at the beginning of the digital era (they still are). Canon dominated this segment. Now, we also have internet influencers, especially vloggers. With flip-out LCD and DPAF Canon dominated this segment too despite the fact that the most vocal bloggers were against Canon. Canon has targeted this vocal segment (as well as pros) with the initial RF lens line up. Vloggers are raving about these lenses (and other things). As a result, the number of 'Í am switching back to Canon' Youtubers are increasing every day. Here is a random one.
Read the comments too.
4. Canon colors, subjective but very important reason. All YouTubers coming back or new to Canon mention this to be one of the most important reasons for buying EOS R.
5. Outside the bubble of the forums, the overwhelming majority of people still shoot DSLR and 90% or more of them use Canon or Nikon. A very small number of them started to taste mirrorless with the release of R and Z cameras and the rest will eventually make the move. The rest don't care about mirrorless because their DSLRs just work. When they make the move over the next few years Canon (and Nikon) will be ready to take them. If Canon (and Nikon) can create the reverse 'switching back' movement with just two cameras and a handful of lenses, imagine what will happen when the system matures in 2-3 years.
6. The usual stuff like the most extensive support, reputation, name recognition, etc.
7. In these forums, we underestimate the emotional and subjective aspects of buying decisions. For these reasons Canon won't have to be #1 in technology to be the most dominant force in mirrorless in the coming decade, they just need to be close enough.
Again, read the comments too.
--
https://www.flickr.com/photos/catch45/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/aftab/
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I agree. That capability surprised me the most when I tried it out head to head with my high end Sonys. Actually make it the best body for low light flash work.
gipper51
Veteran Member
My prediction is that over the next decade it's going to become a two-horse race between Canon and Sony, with Nikon slipping to a distant third in the FF mirrorless segment. Canon just needs a killer RF body (which we can assume is coming) for the platform to really take off. Many RF lenses are proving to be best-in-class, and with EF glass as a backbone that works brilliantly with adapters, I think they're poised to regain a lot of Sony defectors (many who still shoot Canon lenses). RF + EF glass will be the most complete modern lens catalog (with full functionality) in photography by a country mile.
I think once Canon has a legit body to compete at the A7R4 level, this segment is going to get very interesting. Hopefully the sleeping giant is getting ready to wake up hungry!
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I think once Canon has a legit body to compete at the A7R4 level, this segment is going to get very interesting. Hopefully the sleeping giant is getting ready to wake up hungry!
--
My site:
http://www.gipperich-photography.com
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Well it will be interesting to see if Canon can pull it off. Had left Canon after 25 years this past July when I sold my 5D Mark IV. This was the one remaining EOS body I had. I had been using Canon and Sony side by side over the last five years. Canon had been my main system with the A7R, A7RII being my high resolution landscape camera instead of buying a 5DSR. Then the a9 and then the A7RIII came along and that changed. The GM 100-400, 200-600, and the Batis primes contributed to that. Then came the other GM lenses.
I'm now giving it a look see with the great price they had during the holidays for the EOS R. Was going to wait until Canon had a mirrorless body that was as capable as the 5D Mark IV but I only payed $1299 for the EOS R so why not give it a try. Now we will see what the next year brings to see if it was worth it to step back in to it.
gipper51
Veteran Member
Yes, it's going to be fun to watch. Sony is on a hot streak right now, but I think Canon can catch up (or at least get very close) with the bodies in a couple of years. Assuming they do, I think Sony is going to have a real issue on their hands, as most people who went for Sony did so because of the sensor and body AF tech, not the lens catalog. But that's changing too, as Sony doesn't have too many holes except for some specialty lenses.
Sony got a nice head start as the first adopter, but I think that gap is closing fast. I bet many pros switched to Sony will look at Canon again, largely because of the local rental ecosystem and CPS. Sony needs to ramp this area up.
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