Nikon is dying

eliehbk · Nov 23, 2019

Many people I know that don’t know much about photography buy Canon. It’s brand recognition and nothing else. I have to admit that they have beautiful colors.

eliehbk · Nov 23, 2019

Snap bridge is light years ahead of the other two systems I use (Fuji and Leica)

VBLondon · Nov 23, 2019

ArtAlt said:
One of their points on the downside is a particular sore point for me: while Nikon was pouring R&D into the NOCT lens, Canon produced a brilliant 85mm f/1.2. Sigh.

Fair enough but I am glad whilst Canon was pouring R&D into crazy expensive f1.2 primes, Nikon produced a brilliant 85mm f1.8. Phew.

thelenspainter · Nov 23, 2019

whimsicalmike said:
Anonymous Pi said:

whimsicalmike said:

thelenspainter said:

They were making high quality education content and only pivoted to 'clickbait' in the last 2 years or so, when they apparently realized that they would get flamed whether they tried to be factual or not. Might as well make clickbait then since it gets more views!

Click to expand...

They used to get flamed because their facts were very often wrong.

Click to expand...

So they decided to drop the pretense?

Click to expand...

I don't think either of them are smart enough to realise they are not knowledgeable about photography

Thank you for making my point for me

No matter how carefully researched or well tested, there is always an armchair quarterback ready to tell people they're wrong without explaining why.

justmeMN · Nov 23, 2019

Member said:
AllFlawed wrote: The Nikon Z seems a lot slicker and more polished than anything Canon puts out at the moment.

On the other hand, the Canon M50 outsells any Nikon Z, and Nikon doesn't have any mirrorless camera in that price range.

In Japan, (BCN) Canon R outsells Nikon Z. I don't know about other countries.

Canon is starting out by making excellent (expensive) RF-L lenses, and will eventually get around to

making excellent R bodies.

Tomx72 · Nov 23, 2019

eliehbk said:
Snap bridge is light years ahead of the other two systems I use (Fuji and Leica)

Panasonic is hopeless too and it starts with the connection process...

justmeMN · Nov 23, 2019

AllFlawed said:
Sony are not doomed as they will just move on but Canon seem the best candidates for doom as they are geared to large turnover in a large camera market. The next Kodak if ever there was.

Imaging division forecast for the current fiscal year:

Canon: 50.8 billion yen Operating Profit

Nikon: 10.0 billion yen Operating Loss

Percentage of company revenue that comes from Imaging division:

Nikon: 41.8%

Canon: 23%

thelenspainter · Nov 23, 2019

Droster said:
thelenspainter said:

This thread is certainly very entertaining. On the same forum we have another thread where people are lamenting that we might not see the Z mount 70-200 this year because of cuts Nikon will have to make. Yet on this thread we have other people saying nothing is wrong and stop saying Nikon is dying.

BTW, I have followed Northrup's channel for many years. They were making high quality education content and only pivoted to 'clickbait' in the last 2 years or so, when they apparently realized that they would get flamed whether they tried to be factual or not. Might as well make clickbait then since it gets more views!

Sad to say, Youtube videos are a perfect reflection of the kind of thing the audience will click on. If you want less clickbait, don't click on it.

Click to expand...

In recent years, Nikon typically releases/announces around five-six lenses a year. The seven we have current is par on course even for bumper years further into the past.

2014 (7): 18-55, 35, 70-300 (N1), 10-30 (N1), 18-300, 400E, 20

2015 (8): 24-70VR, 200-500, 24/1.8G, 500, 600, 300. 55-200, 16-80

2016 (5): 70-200FL, 19 PCE, AF-P 70-300 DX, AF-P 18-55 DX, 105mm f1.4

2017 (4): AF-P 70-300 FX, AF-P 10-20, 8-15mm fish eye, 28 f1.4,

2018 (5-6): 180-400, 24-70/4, 35, 50, 500PF, (noct)

2019 (6-7): 14-30, 24-70/2.8, 85, 24, 16-50, 50-250, (120-300)

If anything the 70-200 got bumped into 2020 because of the DX Z lenses. If the Z roadmap doesn't shift much, we have 13 Z lenses for 2020 and 2021. Which fits in just nice with room for one, maybe two F-mount lens.

I haven't seen this type of analysis before - thank you!

Anonymous Pi · Nov 23, 2019

Geomaticsman said:
sassan_n said:

ArtAlt said:

If you visit the Northrup's "Is Nikon Dying" video, skip the first ten minutes. At almost precisely the ten minute mark they start to make constructive suggestions. I found their suggestions very clever, and I hope that people at Nikon will manage to get past the first ten minutes to hear the suggestions.

Click to expand...

They say Nikon is bad at software and yet a lot of suggestion they make involves heavy software development ("computational photography, option of image averaging, better touchscreen capabilities, android, wifi, cellular etc.) If they are bad at software, this means they don't have the capacity for further software developments.

Click to expand...

I agree -- although Nikon's software engineers seem to do a good job with standard camera functionality, when it comes to value-added processing (e.g. focus stacking), communications (snapbridge), and all of their post processing software after NX2, Nikon appears to be very amateurish. Mirrorless and computational tech -- which clearly is the future of photography -- is going to require much more software know-how, and Nikon is going to have to make some investments in software engineering if they want to survive in the camera business, let alone grow and prosper.

Let's not pretend that Canon and Sony are exactly maestros of software. They all need to make investments in software engineering. At least Nikon appears to understand UI design and care about the UX. They also don't need to add Android and cellular to cameras -- how many people leave their home without their cell phone very often these days -- they just need to fully leverage the smartphone to do what it does best. And yes, one of the main things they need to do is improve the SOOC experience so that it can do at least some of what smartphones can do (as mentioned above, HDR, focus stacking, etc), so they can fully leverage the better sensors and optics that cameras provide.

It's still going to be more inconvenient for most people -- too inconvenient for some -- to carry a camera, but, people shouldn't be asking, why can't my camera do that?

Geomaticsman · Nov 23, 2019

eliehbk said:
Snap bridge is light years ahead of the other two systems I use (Fuji and Leica)

Yeah, it only took them three(?) tries and several years, but they finally got it, well sort of. They should have been where the are today with their first release....they weren't inventing anything new.

--
Garfield

24Peter · Nov 23, 2019

Anonymous Pi said:
but, people shouldn't be asking, why can't my camera do that?

This is the best point in this entire thread. All the camera manufacturers have to compete with computational photography devices. They should beat them at their own game. With superior hardware, it should be easy.

And I love my DSLR's and I love (and earn my living from) "real" photography. And that doesn't change the fact the camera makers must step up their game in this area if they want to stay relevant.

--
Check out my new book: "Be Bigger Than You Think You Are!"
www.bebiggertoday.com
www.peteralessandriaphotography.com
Instagram
My DPReview Feature Article

Droster · Nov 24, 2019

https://phototrend.fr/2019/11/interview-philippe-farreng-pentax-100-ans/

Insights from the perspective of Pentax/Ricoh. Google translate did a pretty good job I reckon.

eliehbk said:
The photo market reached its peak in 2010: it was sold at that time more than 250 million units. Today, you can take these same volumes and divide them by 8. The emergence of the smartphone has completely rolled out all entry-level models, all compact models - with the exception of expert compacts (aimed at populations warned and who will look for an image quality superior to that proposed by a smartphone) and interchangeable boxes.

At the time of film photography - which was extremely stable - it sold 2.5 million units a year. There were 300,000 interchangeable lens cases and 2.2 million compacts or bridges. Today, if we take the French market for interchangeable lens devices, we get roughly the same figures if we add those of SLRs and hybrids. On the other hand, the entire compact market has completely disappeared. But we must recognize that the quality of smartphones is increasing steadily, especially in low light.

Yep. Every company is talking about hobbyists and professionals and after your casual photographers are done with their smartphones we will eventually fall back to the numbers pre-peak.

eliehbk said:
In the case of SLRs, the market decreases more in volume than in value - since it is mainly the entry-level models that disappear. Models full frame and premium models are more resistant compared to the decrease of the market. The mirrorless is the only sector currently growing, but only on its high end.

We have already reached a peak with the hybrid: all hybrid boxes are pulling the market up (especially in value) but if we take the entire market in value we are already in decline. What is suffering today in the mirrorless is mainly micro-4/3 and APS-C sensors. Under the leadership of Sony, the full-format hybrid market is doing well.

Yep.

eliehbk said:
On the other hand, the difficulty lies in the development of a wide range of optics in a very short time. The market is refocusing more on the premium: this represents a significant investment for people who will associate with a brand. They do not stop in the short term but look on the medium-long term and will therefore analyze the entire ecosystem offered by the different brands.

From Nikon's perspective we can see why they did the moves they did. They are rebuilding their ecosystem and with urgency.

eliehbk said:
In terms of development - new sensor, new design, electronic circuits - a SLR takes about 14 to 18 months to be mature on the market. With a mirrorless, this can be done in a much shorter time: in 8 or 10 months it is possible to design a hybrid device.

Shorter update cycles.

eliehbk said:
As far as mirrorless is concerned, it is likely that the parent company in Japan is very serious about the issue because of the very clear evolution of the market. Even if we are currently 50-50 between hybrids and SLRs, it is clear that hybrid market share is gradually increasing.

There are also more and more people buying photo material for video - not just for photography. Tomorrow, will it be necessary that we propose a camera dedicated to the video, will it be necessary that it is a hybrid? Several options are emerging but we have not made a decision yet.

And on video.

JMD-70 · Nov 24, 2019

z2122 said:
... Sony Tony talks again ...

this is so ridiculous...

Hate 'em or Love 'em,...the "math",...of which, was released by Nikon,...doesn't lie!

Nikon will need to make adjustments in their lineups,...just like Ford, GM, Volvo, Porsche, VW, Hyundai, Tesla, Mercedes, IBM,...and one of the most famous name brands of all,...Blackberry has had to make in order to keep the lights on!

Case in point,...IBM sold their PC business many years ago and now they are a "solutions" company!,...and guess what,.."Solutions" don't require as high "overhead" as the PC business,....Blackberry adopted this model too! The lights for both companies are still on.

Now, what Camera manufactures need to do is integrate a freak'n SIM card in their digital cameras,...complete with the ability for a User to use iOS or Android as their back-end interface to all things internet or Social Media! Why this hasn't happened yet is beyond me!

JMD
...D850 / D500/ WT-7 x2!
......Nikon forever,...again!!
"...Don't be great at doing something first, Be first at doing something Great!

Crypt Keeper · Nov 24, 2019

"IBIS would have made the Z50 bigger and quite a bit expensive"

Check out that link. Who is being naive now?

Loading…

j.mp

eliehbk · Nov 24, 2019

Didn’t Samsung release an android camera back in the days?

Crypt Keeper · Nov 24, 2019

sassan_n said:
If they are bad at software, this means they don't have the capacity for further software developments.

No, they may not have the capacity now, but surely they got some money to invest in good software developers, right? Unless they prefer to make another fancy f0.95 lens to show off.

MrALLCAPS · Nov 24, 2019

Simply another ploy to lure people to click on their videos and post comments and making a profit off of them.

I unsubscribed and ignore their videos long ago. I suggest y'all do the same.

Leonard Shepherd · Nov 24, 2019

Tomx72 said:
Andrewcn said:

Isn’t the only fact to consider is whether a camera company is losing money?

is Nikon losing money?

Click to expand...

They are not losing money at the moment but forecasted to lose money next year on the imaging business.

They have increasing profits and revenues in other divisions in the current financial year - with a forecast profit overall.

The detail is FF sales are increasing in Europe and USA, and DSLRs sales are falling quicker than planned in China and Asia.

In the short term Nikon may run off DSLR - especially lower end - quicker than planned - but more FF overall is ML is selling better than FF DSLR last year.

I speculate most Z buyers buy at least one extra Z lens quickly. So far I have two - and I am waiting for the 50mm f1.2 and 200-600.

--
Leonard Shepherd
In lots of ways good photography is much more about how equipment is used rather than anything else.

Satyaa · Nov 24, 2019

I saw this in someone's signature on one of the forums..

"Don't take life too seriously.. nobody got out of it alive anyway"

stevef1961 · Nov 24, 2019

eliehbk said:
Tony and Chelsea Northrup strike again. According to them Nikon is in deep trouble unless they listen to them and put their efforts back into DSLRs and not mirrorless because the company is hopeless at writing good software. These two get better and better with time, their videos are priceless. I also loved how they were almost ashamed at admitting being in Costco (this is for the American readers). So guys start selling tour gear before the company goes under )

Signed,

Tony & Chelsea Northrup

Nikon is dying

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