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What lenses in production today will go up in value in the future?
- Thread starter joclaire
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stevef1961
Senior Member
Not the premise of the conversation.
Windancer
Veteran Member
dog house riley
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Just thought this is interesting to discuss if only just a time waster
What Nikon lenses in production today do you think will go up in value in the future, if any? And with the gaining popularity of mirrorless and the declining market share of SLRs, this might be harder and harder if not impossible to realize...
I would imagine it has to sell/be made in low quantities and have either no replacement/successor or a replacement that doesn't turn out to be a 100% substitute.
I think the following are good candidates.
200mm f4d micro - Low volume and optically perfect. Can sort of already tell by relatively high used prices and low supply.
200mm f2g - Optically perfect, great rendering. low numbers.
58mm 1.4g - I think this one isn't selling in large quantities. Great rendering. Wide open sharpness is okay but there is and likely always will be a premium associated with native, OEM lenses over 3rd party.
135mm f2d dc - great rendering and okay sharpness wide open. Really good skin tones. relatively low numbers. unique DC feature. no replacement yet and i think unlikely oem or 3rd party replacement (with the abundance of 70-200 2.8s, i could imagine a scenario where 135mm fast primes do not sell in large numbers to make it worthwhile to invest high r&d and ultimately produce).
With that said, I don't think any of the current holy trinity zooms will ever sell for more than msrp. Despite being great all around performers (esp for zooms), they sell a ton of these.
Your thoughts and opinions more than welcome.
Rick_Hunter
Senior Member
Ding ding ding!!! We have a winner here! Nearly all of the lenses being made today are full of electronic circuits, hypersonic motors, many also have VR units... Truth is modern AF lenses have a very high chance of being a throwaway after 10 years or a little more... Ever heard of ROHS solder and tin whiskers? If not, then have a read here and you'll understand:
http://nepp.nasa.gov/Whisker/background/index.htm
The fact nikon puts a "10" recycling info printed on the lens barrels is due to tin whiskers. Nikon itself does not expect their lenses to last more than 10 years.
The only lenses being made today that I can see going up in value in the future are electronic-free masterpieces like the Zeiss Otus lenses or Leica Summicron 50mm APO, stuff like that, imho.
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I don't think lenses like the Otus are electronic free. They are AF free and definitely less complicated from a circuitry perspective than AFing Nikon G lenses but they still have circuitry which allows the camera body to control aperture and communicate metering.
Just because there's a 10yr Recycle logo on the back of the latest Nikon G lenses doesn't mean they will just fall apart and disintegrate after 10yrs. AF and VR could stop working (which can be fixed and might be more expensive as time goes on) but as long as these lenses continue to be designed with mechanical focus (like all past and current Nikon lenses) and not focus-by-wire, these lenses could be useful and hold some value for quite some time.
--
http://www.flickr.com/photos/111304887@N06/
Just because there's a 10yr Recycle logo on the back of the latest Nikon G lenses doesn't mean they will just fall apart and disintegrate after 10yrs. AF and VR could stop working (which can be fixed and might be more expensive as time goes on) but as long as these lenses continue to be designed with mechanical focus (like all past and current Nikon lenses) and not focus-by-wire, these lenses could be useful and hold some value for quite some time.
--
http://www.flickr.com/photos/111304887@N06/
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Just thought this is interesting to discuss if only just a time waster
What Nikon lenses in production today do you think will go up in value in the future, if any? And with the gaining popularity of mirrorless and the declining market share of SLRs, this might be harder and harder if not impossible to realize...
I would imagine it has to sell/be made in low quantities and have either no replacement/successor or a replacement that doesn't turn out to be a 100% substitute.
I think the following are good candidates.
200mm f4d micro - Low volume and optically perfect. Can sort of already tell by relatively high used prices and low supply.
200mm f2g - Optically perfect, great rendering. low numbers.
58mm 1.4g - I think this one isn't selling in large quantities. Great rendering. Wide open sharpness is okay but there is and likely always will be a premium associated with native, OEM lenses over 3rd party.
135mm f2d dc - great rendering and okay sharpness wide open. Really good skin tones. relatively low numbers. unique DC feature. no replacement yet and i think unlikely oem or 3rd party replacement (with the abundance of 70-200 2.8s, i could imagine a scenario where 135mm fast primes do not sell in large numbers to make it worthwhile to invest high r&d and ultimately produce).
With that said, I don't think any of the current holy trinity zooms will ever sell for more than msrp. Despite being great all around performers (esp for zooms), they sell a ton of these.
Your thoughts and opinions more than welcome.
I don't know about all of you but lenses to me are just freaking cool. Metal/plastic cylinders housing highly treated glass shaped to within 1/1000th of an inch in tolerance. Said pieces of glass are then geared to move within the housing to bend light in specific ways.
Camera bodies are overrated. Give me any FF body and some nice, fast glass and I'll create something awesome and unique.
If lenses in their current form ever become obsolete, I can't imagine some future hipster (who will be wearing a 1000x optical zoom F0.1 lens on a 500mpix camera the size of a thumbtack around their neck) coming across say a 135mm DC and not being super impressed.
Or maybe I'm crazy and need to lay off the scotch at 10am on a Saturday...
Camera bodies are overrated. Give me any FF body and some nice, fast glass and I'll create something awesome and unique.
If lenses in their current form ever become obsolete, I can't imagine some future hipster (who will be wearing a 1000x optical zoom F0.1 lens on a 500mpix camera the size of a thumbtack around their neck) coming across say a 135mm DC and not being super impressed.
Or maybe I'm crazy and need to lay off the scotch at 10am on a Saturday...
Rick_Hunter
Senior Member
My oh my, let's put some perspective into this:
1) The only electronic thing in a Zeiss ZF.2 lens is the chip for communicating exif. (that makes the lens work like an AI-P lens) Everything else is purely mechanical. (Leica lenses don't even have the chip)
2) Even if that chip broke, you could still enter the focal lenght and maximum aperture data in the camera's menu and use the lens as an AI-S lens - you wouldn't lose any of its functions.
3) Also, I'd like to point out that changing a broken exif chip is an easy job that can be done without dismantling the lens (you just need to remove remove the mount, the chip is located within the mount.)
4) Replacing an AF motor and/or VR unit on the other hand is a complex, expensive job that requires complete dismantling of the lens, and by the way since we're talking about a far future scenario, do you think it would be easy to have a new AF motor installed in a lens which production stopped 20 years before?
5) The nice thing about manual focus lenses is that they're indeed optimized and engineered for manual focus. Buttery smooth brass helicoids, long focus throw, no play in the mechanism, perfect feel. Yes you can manually focus an AF lens with a broken motor but it's not going to be a pleasant experience: the focus rings on most modern AF lenses are nothing to write home about: rough, short throw, some play/sloppiness in the gearing... Etc.
6) Zeiss and Leica lenses are made from metal. Not mostly metal with plastic this or that: They're ALL metal. Metal doesn't change its structural properties over time, while many plastics, rubbers and composite materials can become brittle, or worn out, or discoloured after many years.
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Hi,
As regards Nicon lenses produced nowadays, I cannot say much, since I use Canon
Also photo-thechnics develop so quickly today, that normally, with with every update the new lenses are more and more performant, and the old ones loose in value - this is the general trend I believe
But what is interesting to see - which old lenses are quite in value today. For instance, what is very researched for between the photographers cercle I participate in is the folloing lens - I will not name it, but you could guess the model by its bokeh
at the sea
Without beeing too much descriptif - this is a manual lens with its focal distance of approx. 50 mm, it was produced in 1950-60-70; another it's version (also manual, also from more or less same years of production) also exists in a focal distance of 85 - and gives even a better bokeh swirled effect if you are an experienced user :
both lenses are very valued.
Voilà
<a href='http://www.pbase.com/irika'>my photo blog</a>
As regards Nicon lenses produced nowadays, I cannot say much, since I use Canon
Also photo-thechnics develop so quickly today, that normally, with with every update the new lenses are more and more performant, and the old ones loose in value - this is the general trend I believe
But what is interesting to see - which old lenses are quite in value today. For instance, what is very researched for between the photographers cercle I participate in is the folloing lens - I will not name it, but you could guess the model by its bokeh
at the sea
Without beeing too much descriptif - this is a manual lens with its focal distance of approx. 50 mm, it was produced in 1950-60-70; another it's version (also manual, also from more or less same years of production) also exists in a focal distance of 85 - and gives even a better bokeh swirled effect if you are an experienced user :
both lenses are very valued.
Voilà
<a href='http://www.pbase.com/irika'>my photo blog</a>
jcvjcvjcvjcv
Senior Member
Ding ding ding!!! We have a winner here! Nearly all of the lenses being made today are full of electronic circuits, hypersonic motors, many also have VR units... Truth is modern AF lenses have a very high chance of being a throwaway after 10 years or a little more... Ever heard of ROHS solder and tin whiskers? If not, then have a read here and you'll understand:
http://nepp.nasa.gov/Whisker/background/index.htm
The fact nikon puts a "10" recycling info printed on the lens barrels is due to tin whiskers. Nikon itself does not expect their lenses to last more than 10 years.
The only lenses being made today that I can see going up in value in the future are electronic-free masterpieces like the Zeiss Otus lenses or Leica Summicron 50mm APO, stuff like that, imho.
Very few people know about tin whiskers. Even my university level materials science teacher didn't seem to know.
The problem with the ban on lead in solder is not just the whiskers, but also the much higher melting point. Meaning you get more heat and related expansion / contraction stress / strain.
I
inasir1971
Guest
You are perpetuating one of KR's myths. The 10 has nothing to do with years they expect it to last or tin whiskers - it is an indication required by China.Ding ding ding!!! We have a winner here! Nearly all of the lenses being made today are full of electronic circuits, hypersonic motors, many also have VR units... Truth is modern AF lenses have a very high chance of being a throwaway after 10 years or a little more... Ever heard of ROHS solder and tin whiskers? If not, then have a read here and you'll understand:
http://nepp.nasa.gov/Whisker/background/index.htm
The fact nikon puts a "10" recycling info printed on the lens barrels is due to tin whiskers. Nikon itself does not expect their lenses to last more than 10 years.
The only lenses being made today that I can see going up in value in the future are electronic-free masterpieces like the Zeiss Otus lenses or Leica Summicron 50mm APO, stuff like that, imho.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_RoHS
Rick_Hunter
Senior Member
Rohs caused the end of lead-based solder. (less prone to tin whiskers formation)
Lead free solder was introduced (much more prone to tin whiskers)
Read the nasa article I posted earlier.
Have you ever seen the insides of, say, a 24-70/2.8?
Just look at how much electronic stuff there's inside:
Loading…
www.lensrentals.com
I honestly don't think a lens like this can survive 20 years without anything breaking.
H
Hookum_Horns
Guest
Wasn't it well into 6 figures? It sold new for USD$666.66...
Hookum ;-)
Hookum ;-)
Michael Benveniste
Veteran Member
Um, no. It's a Chinese EFUP (Environment Friendly Use Period) symbol, indicating it does contain environmentally hazardous substances. The current manual for the 85mm f/1.8D carries the exact same symbol.
https://nikoneurope-en.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/21761.
Tin Whiskers are real phenomena, but the 10 symbol has nothing to do with them.
Robin Casady
Forum Pro
Just thought this is interesting to discuss if only just a time waster
What Nikon lenses in production today do you think will go up in value in the future, if any? And with the gaining popularity of mirrorless and the declining market share of SLRs, this might be harder and harder if not impossible to realize...
I would imagine it has to sell/be made in low quantities and have either no replacement/successor or a replacement that doesn't turn out to be a 100% substitute.
I think the following are good candidates.
200mm f4d micro - Low volume and optically perfect. Can sort of already tell by relatively high used prices and low supply.
200mm f2g - Optically perfect, great rendering. low numbers.
58mm 1.4g - I think this one isn't selling in large quantities. Great rendering. Wide open sharpness is okay but there is and likely always will be a premium associated with native, OEM lenses over 3rd party.
135mm f2d dc - great rendering and okay sharpness wide open. Really good skin tones. relatively low numbers. unique DC feature. no replacement yet and i think unlikely oem or 3rd party replacement (with the abundance of 70-200 2.8s, i could imagine a scenario where 135mm fast primes do not sell in large numbers to make it worthwhile to invest high r&d and ultimately produce).
With that said, I don't think any of the current holy trinity zooms will ever sell for more than msrp. Despite being great all around performers (esp for zooms), they sell a ton of these.
Your thoughts and opinions more than welcome.
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