What lenses in production today will go up in value in the future?

[joclaire]

Just thought this is interesting to discuss if only just a time waster

What Nikon lenses in production today do you think will go up in value in the future, if any? And with the gaining popularity of mirrorless and the declining market share of SLRs, this might be harder and harder if not impossible to realize...

I would imagine it has to sell/be made in low quantities and have either no replacement/successor or a replacement that doesn't turn out to be a 100% substitute.

I think the following are good candidates.

200mm f4d micro - Low volume and optically perfect. Can sort of already tell by relatively high used prices and low supply.

200mm f2g - Optically perfect, great rendering. low numbers.

58mm 1.4g - I think this one isn't selling in large quantities. Great rendering. Wide open sharpness is okay but there is and likely always will be a premium associated with native, OEM lenses over 3rd party.

135mm f2d dc - great rendering and okay sharpness wide open. Really good skin tones. relatively low numbers. unique DC feature. no replacement yet and i think unlikely oem or 3rd party replacement (with the abundance of 70-200 2.8s, i could imagine a scenario where 135mm fast primes do not sell in large numbers to make it worthwhile to invest high r&d and ultimately produce).

With that said, I don't think any of the current holy trinity zooms will ever sell for more than msrp. Despite being great all around performers (esp for zooms), they sell a ton of these.

Your thoughts and opinions more than welcome.

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/111304887@N06/

 

[Snapshott]

I would imagine it has to sell/be made in low quantities and have either no replacement/successor or a replacement that doesn't turn out to be a 100% substitute.

This is the key, as you said low quantities and no suitable replacement. You candidates are good but there is know way of knowing if a suitable replacement will be produced until it happens to long enough time after production has taken place.

Of your list I'd pick the 135mm DC because I believe the 200mm lenses will have suitable replacements and the 58mm G is still fairly new so I believe it will be around for a while. BTW my 70-180mm macro zoom is holding it's increase value pretty well.

 

[joclaire]

I would imagine it has to sell/be made in low quantities and have either no replacement/successor or a replacement that doesn't turn out to be a 100% substitute.

This is the key, as you said low quantities and no suitable replacement. You candidates are good but there is know way of knowing if a suitable replacement will be produced until it happens to long enough time after production has taken place.

Of your list I'd pick the 135mm DC because I believe the 200mm lenses will have suitable replacements and the 58mm G is still fairly new so I believe it will be around for a while. BTW my 70-180mm macro zoom is holding it's increase value pretty well.

--
Snapshott
http://jeffscottshots.smugmug.com/Nature/Wildlife

The 70-180mm micro is an excellent example. If I remember correctly, it was a one of a kind macro lens in that it was a zoom. And while in production, hardly any one bought one so they ceased to make them any more. Once Nikon stopped making them, people started wanting them.

The 28mm 1.4 is another example.

--
http://www.flickr.com/photos/111304887@N06/

 

[Robin Casady]

I would imagine it has to sell/be made in low quantities and have either no replacement/successor or a replacement that doesn't turn out to be a 100% substitute.

This is the key, as you said low quantities and no suitable replacement. You candidates are good but there is know way of knowing if a suitable replacement will be produced until it happens to long enough time after production has taken place.

Of your list I'd pick the 135mm DC because I believe the 200mm lenses will have suitable replacements and the 58mm G is still fairly new so I believe it will be around for a while. BTW my 70-180mm macro zoom is holding it's increase value pretty well.

--
Snapshott
http://jeffscottshots.smugmug.com/Nature/Wildlife

The 70-180mm micro is an excellent example. If I remember correctly, it was a one of a kind macro lens in that it was a zoom. And while in production, hardly any one bought one so they ceased to make them any more. Once Nikon stopped making them, people started wanting them.

Can't think of any current lenses that will become classics.

Bought the 70-180mm Micro new from B&H, in 2005, shortly before they were discontinued. Paid $1,100. They are going for about that on ebay used. I also have the 105mm Micro VR and the AF-D 60mm Micro, but the 70-180 has become my favorite.

--
Robin Casady
http://www.robincasady.com/Photo/index.html
When you look through the viewfinder do you see an object or do you see a picture?
__________________
"I believe that the electronic image will be the next major advance. Such systems will have their own inherent and inescapable structural characteristics, and the artist and functional practitioner will again strive to comprehend and control them." — Ansel Adams, 1981

 

[joclaire]

The 200mm f4d micro is also a great macro lens. In my opinion it will go down as a Nikon classic (increase in price I'm not so sure about). I can't overstate how optically perfect the lens is even wide open. I don't know how they further improve on the design besides adding VR (which is not that useful for macros close to 1:1).


200mm micro offers great working distance. Shot wide open (f4.8 due to close focus)


even after substantial cropping, sharpness is intact.


excellent sharpness towards infinity as well

--
http://www.flickr.com/photos/111304887@N06/

 

[Stacey_K]

I would bet on the DC lenses. The 58 could, I doubt they sell many of those. One of the largest pro shops in Atlanta had sold one before the one I ordered.

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Stacey

 

[joclaire]

Hmm, totally forgot about the 24mm 1.4g. This should be a candidate as well.

 

[Windancer]

What Nikon lenses in production today do you think will go up in value in the future, if any?

If I knew I would probably I would probably invest in them, seriously one really never knows what lens would meet this criteria. There have been numerous suggestions, all good, you never know what the public feel is a classic. Just my thoughts others may differ.

Terry

 

[paulski66]

Even the old MF telephotos sell for a princely sum used; great and relatively rare (i.e., expensive enough to be produced in low numbers) glass like that just doesn't seem to decrease in value.

I'm not sure they'll go up in value a huge amount, but I don't imagine you'll be paying much less for a used 200mm f/2 used in 10 years than you would be paying for a new copy now.

 

[Art Jacks]

I am definitely not a money no object person but when I bought my three lens ( not at the same time ! ) the residual value did not enter my mind, I bought mine to use to take photographs with.

 

[jcvjcvjcvjcv]

Keeping the same or increasing value in $US doesn't mean they go up in value, since the US$ continually goes down in value.

I paid GBP 470 for a Nikon 105 VR Micro, six years ago. Now GBP 629. That's +5% per years

I paid something like EUR 350 for my 70-300 VR almost seven years ago. Now EUR 550. That's +7% per year.

+7% per year means prices double every ten years

 

[scrane]

I think the Zeiss Otus 85. Because of its high price and niche focal length not a lot will be sold, but it will never lose its astonishing image quality and precision construction.

 

[Michael Benveniste]

I would bet on the DC lenses. The 58 could, I doubt they sell many of those. One of the largest pro shops in Atlanta had sold one before the one I ordered.

According to Roland's serial number list, Nikon's already sold more 58mm f/1.4's (11865) than the did either of the 28mm f/1.4 or the 58mm f/1.2 NOCT. To put that number in perspective, the same site reports that Nikon's sold about 11452 105mm DC's since the last serial number switch in 2006.

 

[Stacey_K]

I would bet on the DC lenses. The 58 could, I doubt they sell many of those. One of the largest pro shops in Atlanta had sold one before the one I ordered.

According to Roland's serial number list, Nikon's already sold more 58mm f/1.4's (11865) than the did either of the 28mm f/1.4 or the 58mm f/1.2 NOCT. To put that number in perspective, the same site reports that Nikon's sold about 11452 105mm DC's since the last serial number switch in 2006.

Thanks for the info!! I didn't figure the 58 was that popular but it seems it is.

 

[Ian64893]

Look back over the last 30 years, what lens sticks in your mind as a real winner,then look outside the box and look at the designs that have come about in the last 5 years.

From stts that I have lenses have changed, to say what will be valuable in 20 years time and worth putting away. Nothing..

In the last 20 even 30 years lenses have changed, 30 years ago very few zoom lenses were sold, for many reasons, but there were very few on the market and photographers did not like them. Now its all zoom lenses and few prime lenses.

What we need to ask is, will there be a DSLR market in 30 years time. DSLR sales are dropping world wide, so do not hold your breath...

 

[xtm]

None. Everything electronic is pretty much a throwaway.

 

[JeffryZ]

I am definitely not a money no object person but when I bought my three lens ( not at the same time ! ) the residual value did not enter my mind, I bought mine to use to take photographs with.

Like you, I am more interested in what I can use it for today- not what I might be able to sell it for in the future. But the discussion seems to be asking the unanswerable "what is the best lens available today?" That will always depend on the photographer and his needs and budget.

 

[Jones R]

I think you're better off buying Leica lenses.

 

[paulski66]

I am definitely not a money no object person but when I bought my three lens ( not at the same time ! ) the residual value did not enter my mind, I bought mine to use to take photographs with.

Like you, I am more interested in what I can use it for today- not what I might be able to sell it for in the future. But the discussion seems to be asking the unanswerable "what is the best lens available today?" That will always depend on the photographer and his needs and budget.

 

[paulski66]

I am definitely not a money no object person but when I bought my three lens ( not at the same time ! ) the residual value did not enter my mind, I bought mine to use to take photographs with.