Rod McD wrote:
Hi,
FF mirror-less is a gap in the market (if you discount the RF Leica system). Someone is going to do a reasonably affordable digital FF & AF system sooner or later. When it happens it would immediately threaten Fuji's premium APSC X series. Given that Fuji don't make anything else in APSC, I think we can allow that they would respond and would be planning to do so quickly.
My guess is that the first mirror-less challenge to Fuji is actually likely to be Sony - the much rumored FF NEX9 or whatever they may decide to call it. They've released the RX1 fixed lens camera. They've said publicly that they're considering an FF NEX, but that the constraint is not the technology, but the need for a suite of matched high grade lenses - they haven't got them. Yet.
Other challengers.......??
- Canon? They're often said to be so steeped in their DSLR business that they won't bring out anything that competes with it. They are bringing out version two of their APSC EOS M later this year. That won't be FF, and I doubt it will challenge Fuji's sector of the APSC mirror-less market. It would have to be a major improvement on the first version to advance their cause. If they stick with a touch screen UI it will offer a very different experience from the classic ergonomics of the X series. And Canon would need to offer a decent extension of their native M lens range. My guess is that it will appeal to a different set of mirror-less buyers. (If the camera is good, it might 'steal' some X series owners who are also Canon L glass owners.)
- Nikon? They're concentrating like Canon on their existing systems. No hints toward mirror-less with larger than 1" sensors at this point in time. But who knows? If they did head in that direction, they have the advantage of a huge range of legacy F mount glass.
- Olympus? A full frame OMD? Olympus and Panasonic have sold themselves on small form factor, and neither has the lenses now.
- Pentax Ricoh? Ricoh's history is somewhat quirky, but includes surprise small high grade cameras. They have said they are bringing out a new Ricoh mirror-less in 2013 - the details are unknown. And Pentax's APSC K-mount K01, their first cut at mirror-less, has ceased production. No-one knows if they'll have another go. They haven't got short registration lenses, but they do have experience making them. If they released the right camera with a set of matched lenses (plus the huge range of current FF and legacy FF lenses in K mount) they could do well.
- And finally.........why not Fuji themselves? There's nothing stopping them from being the first to offer a FF mirror-less. I'm reading that the X series sales are doing well for them. Why not offer a premium FF model? Get there first and corner the market with both formats? Take the challenge TO Sony? They're innovative, dedicated to good photography, and experienced at offering niche pro-grade products. They make their own sensors. They already have the technology and a winning formula that they could scale up.
I'll go out on limb........I'm betting we'll see an FF mirror-less system from one of these players within two years.
Food for thought.
Cheers, Rod
