Nikon timing - a hunch

Nikon seems fairly consistent with their timing relative to their pro cameras.

1- It took 11 months for Nikon to go from the D3 to the D700.
2- Will they do the same with the D3x to D700x?

Or will they be totally different this time (not like Nikon)? The above would suggest a D700x at the end of November. Yet we hear rumors of a new 18mp and even a new 16 mp camera. Then there are the D800 with video and D700s rumors.

There are cameras in the field right now that are testing the D700x concept - but this can always be dropped and the name or concept changed. My gut feeling is that we will see a new pro Nikon DSLR sometime near the end of November.

Steve Bingham
http://www.dustylens.com
http://www.ghost-town-photography.com

Nikon has never had a pro-digital sensor in a small body except the D700, so we don't have enough historical evidence to anticipate when (if ever) a D700x should arrive.

The D200 was considered the "baby D2x" by many yet it was a 10MP CCD and not the top of the line studio CMOS of the D2x. I've owned both and the D200 was and is not a D2x in a small package. Better at some things (high ISO) and worse at others (detail, IQ, build, etc.)

Likewise the D100 never shared a sensor with the D1h or D1x.

The D700 was a new concept by Nikon, and it sold amazingly well. The D3x sensor in a D700x body seems obvious to all the photographers on this forum, but it might just be cheaper for Nikon to market a new 16 to 20MP sensor for a high res 700 variant rather than go with the full D3x sensor.

Another thing to consider is that like the D2x, the D3x is a bit slow, utilizing the largest file sizes of current technology. FPS of the D3x is in fact slower than even the D2x. The beauty of the D700 is that it was an all-around performer, although slightly compromized for landscape or high-detail studio work. A D700x may or may not be a wise choice for Nikon as such a body won't be as well rounded as the D700, especially if they have to compromize features in order to make it profitable at a price point that will be profitable.

Is well roundedness important? Yes it is, despite an affordable and awesomely spec-ed 5D mk. II there are many cannon shooters who have migrated towards the D700 for it's well roundedness. Even if you check the Nikon forums, there are two camps: Those Nikonian dreamers who expect a 20MP Cannon with Pro Nikon build and AF at the Cannon price (like that is going to happen, or Cannon would have already done it), or those who are landscape or high-detail studio photographers who are unable or unwilling to pay the $$ for the D3x. Everyone else is quite content with the D700 and/or the D3x.

A 16-20 MP D800 or D700x maintaining as much of the flexibility of the D700 using current technology may be a smarter choice for Nikon than simply dumping a D3x chip into a D700 shell.

Whoa...careful Steve. There you go with a careful, balanced approach to the topic.


--
Dave

Not sure a lower resolution (like 18mp) makes sense... With both Canon and Sony having similarly priced high resolution offerings over 20mp for over a year, Nikon will come off like an 'also-ran'.

Whether or not the difference in prints is significant, it will undoubtedly get played as a numbers game - and Nikon will end up losing a good chunk of that market for people not already invested in Nikon. Given the trickle-down losses associated with that market (higher-end lenses, etc.), my guess is they won't take the risk (especially given the cost of new sensor development.

--

Steve, you could be right (I hope you are).

On the timing... if I were with Nikon Marketing and knew we'd have a new product deliverable within 1-3 months I'd go ahead with the announcement now, before people blow their Xmas budgets. End November wouldn't be too late either but why wait? I think the window is open now.

We'll see what next week brings...

--
John
http://www.JChristopherGalleries.com

Exactly. If Nikon releases a 24mp D700 bodied camera in the next two months, they will have two bodies that are industry leading. If they introduce an 18mp camera, they will be behind a few years with a new release. It would be akin to the D2H release with 4mp years after Canon had the 1D body, if not worse, since the 5D MKII and 1DsMKIII have been out for a while now with 21mp.

The only way an 18mp camera could be seen as a win would be if it is a new lighter, smaller body and the price is super low. Don't bet on that. I predict it will be 3 or 4 years before we see a consumer version of an FX camera. And even then, it will not be an 18mp model. It will use an existing sensor, not a new one.

colinmack said:

Not sure a lower resolution (like 18mp) makes sense... With both Canon and Sony having similarly priced high resolution offerings over 20mp for over a year, Nikon will come off like an 'also-ran'.

Whether or not the difference in prints is significant, it will undoubtedly get played as a numbers game - and Nikon will end up losing a good chunk of that market for people not already invested in Nikon. Given the trickle-down losses associated with that market (higher-end lenses, etc.), my guess is they won't take the risk (especially given the cost of new sensor development.

--

Click to expand...

--
Don't take yourself so seriously. No one else does.
Chris, Broussard, LA

Which November, Steve ?

Leswick

I think this is the main problem.

1) Nikon painted itself in the corner with the D3x so now it is really hard to position any camera that has 24MP (oh they must have 24)
2) D4 would be logical but seems too early and may not address issue #3 below
3) Canon and Sony will likely to come out in January with cameras around 32MP
4) Nov 19 is the last release window for any serious items
5) Nikon resources maybe used for addressing the u4/3s.
6) Maybe they just don't care
7) No clue

zzddrr said:

I think this is the main problem.

1) Nikon painted itself in the corner with the D3x so now it is really hard to position any camera that has 24MP (oh they must have 24)
2) D4 would be logical but seems too early and may not address issue #3 below
3) Canon and Sony will likely to come out in January with cameras around 32MP
4) Nov 19 is the last release window for any serious items

Click to expand...

Curious. Why do you think that November 19th as a last serious release date?

zzddrr said:

5) Nikon resources maybe used for addressing the u4/3s.
6) Maybe they just don't care
7) No clue

Click to expand...

--
Steve Bingham
http://www.dustylens.com
http://www.ghost-town-photography.com

Steve Bingham said:

There are cameras in the field right now that are testing the D700x concept

Click to expand...

Really, how do you know this for sure?

--
Steve Bingham
http://www.dustylens.com
http://www.ghost-town-photography.com

Steve Bingham said:

zzddrr said:

I think this is the main problem.

1) Nikon painted itself in the corner with the D3x so now it is really hard to position any camera that has 24MP (oh they must have 24)
2) D4 would be logical but seems too early and may not address issue #3 below
3) Canon and Sony will likely to come out in January with cameras around 32MP
4) Nov 19 is the last release window for any serious items

Click to expand...

Curious. Why do you think that November 19th as a last serious release date?

Click to expand...

There will be a photo expo in Japan and many serious companies will be present. Now, if you want something on the market before the holiday sales you have to announce it about a month before. This is true even for a January availability because most people will be on holiday. Now, keep in mind next year will be a bit different. 1) Canon will not go to PMA 2) Olympics (during the time of PMA so they have to announce and make it available before that and we are talikng about mid feb) 3) Sony will be some kind official sponsor of the soccer world cup? I bet they'll will come out something that will make us say ooops.

Steve Bingham said:

Steve Bingham said:

5) Nikon resources maybe used for addressing the u4/3s.
6) Maybe they just don't care
7) No clue

Click to expand...

--
Steve Bingham
http://www.dustylens.com
http://www.ghost-town-photography.com

Click to expand...

bikinchris said:

Exactly. If Nikon releases a 24mp D700 bodied camera in the next two months, they will have two bodies that are industry leading. If they introduce an 18mp camera, they will be behind a few years with a new release.

Click to expand...

18 MP would be fine if the overall IQ were superior. Look at the M9 -- Mind numbingly great at low ISOs. The IQ coming out of the 5dm2 and 1dsm3 is not that great (I went over some 5dm2 RAW files a couple of days ago, and it killed off my periodically resurgent urge to buy one--too much chroma noise, and at 100 percent looks like it's going to fall apart and too soft, like a 50D). The IQ challenge for Nikon, IMHO, is to get better at the AA/microlens/sensor toppings where Canon seems to have had an advantage prior to the D3x. High ISO at this point is gee whiz neato, but it's kicking a dead horse when basic IQ is still below the "vintage" 5D at lower ISOs... The D3, for example, is "soft" compared to a 5dm1, leading some crazy people like me to have AA filters removed. So while the D3 trounces the 5dm1 above ISO 1600, it is not entirely superior... RG's D3s comparison shots make it look like Nikon might have made some progress on the AA in the D3s vs the D3, which would be fab in my book. If I could have a sharp 12.1 MP, that would make me happy for the next couple of years. The only reason a person like myself would consider 24 MP now is to get that bit of extra detail that is missing from the D3.

In any case, an 18 MP camera would be plenty credible so long as the IQ kicked some Canon tail. Who cares about a measly 3 MP on that scale?

--
David Hill
http://www.sfbayweddingphotographer.com
San Francisco, CA | Austin, TX
Certified Wedding Photography Junky™

zzddrr said:

3) Canon and Sony will likely to come out in January with cameras around 32MP

Click to expand...

And which rational people care? Canon does not have the glass quality on the wide end to support that. The 16-35m2 won't. The 24/1.4m2 might. It would just be a larger wave of people buying English-made adapters to mount Nikon's 14-24 on their Canon bodies

--
David Hill
http://www.sfbayweddingphotographer.com
San Francisco, CA | Austin, TX
Certified Wedding Photography Junky™

em_dee_aitch said:

zzddrr said:

3) Canon and Sony will likely to come out in January with cameras around 32MP

Click to expand...

And which rational people care? Canon does not have the glass quality on the wide end to support that. The 16-35m2 won't. The 24/1.4m2 might. It would just be a larger wave of people buying English-made adapters to mount Nikon's 14-24 on their Canon bodies

Click to expand...

and using them on a Canon body. To be honest, don't you think that they would not slowly come out with some lenses? In the meantime they could advertise themselves that they have the best resolution. Most will understand even though 6MP would do the trick for them. But it's all about perception.

zzddrr said:

em_dee_aitch said:

zzddrr said:

3) Canon and Sony will likely to come out in January with cameras around 32MP

Click to expand...

And which rational people care? Canon does not have the glass quality on the wide end to support that. The 16-35m2 won't. The 24/1.4m2 might. It would just be a larger wave of people buying English-made adapters to mount Nikon's 14-24 on their Canon bodies

Click to expand...

and using them on a Canon body. To be honest, don't you think that they would not slowly come out with some lenses? In the meantime they could advertise themselves that they have the best resolution. Most will understand even though 6MP would do the trick for them. But it's all about perception.

Click to expand...

All about perception.... That is part of the problem, because for more serious people it's about the IQ. Just not impressed with Canon's current line up, which I think has actually regressed in some important IQ ways against their own classics.

As to the glass, I think Canon put itself in a hard place releasing a troubled 16-35m2 only two years ago. They already need to replace it, and that is way more soon than normal. That lens is quite odd in that its performance at 16-21 is way better than the m1 lens, but it has the very weird "dark cornering" (distinct from vignetting, very dark just at tips of corners) that no lens I've ever owned has, and at 24-35 it underperforms its predecessor.

--
David Hill
http://www.sfbayweddingphotographer.com
San Francisco, CA | Austin, TX
Certified Wedding Photography Junky™

"Nikon has never had a pro-digital sensor in a small body except the D700,"

You forgot about the D300. It is a pro body, pro sensor and considered and launched as such by Nikon. Nikon has been crystal clear about what models it names as pro, semi pro, etc. Until the D3X, the D300 was in many ways the superior resoultion DSLR for Nikon and the small bodied version of the D2X.

The rest of what you say makes very good sense however. Your speculation about a new sensor for example could very well come to be as Nikon for the first time "changed" their "s" pattern and brought out the D3S with an entirely new and improved sensor.
--
Mel
http://www.mellockhartphotography.zenfolio.com
http://www.mellockhartphotography.net

Steve Bingham said:

Nikon seems fairly consistent with their timing relative to their pro cameras.

1- It took 11 months for Nikon to go from the D3 to the D700.
2- Will they do the same with the D3x to D700x?

Or will they be totally different this time (not like Nikon)? The above would suggest a D700x at the end of November. Yet we hear rumors of a new 18mp and even a new 16 mp camera. Then there are the D800 with video and D700s rumors.

There are cameras in the field right now that are testing the D700x concept - but this can always be dropped and the name or concept changed. My gut feeling is that we will see a new pro Nikon DSLR sometime near the end of November.

Steve Bingham
http://www.dustylens.com
http://www.ghost-town-photography.com

Click to expand...

Are you really sure that your own cognitive approach, the whole markets and Nikons will converge in the manifestation of the D700x?

em_dee_aitch said:

bikinchris said:

Exactly. If Nikon releases a 24mp D700 bodied camera in the next two months, they will have two bodies that are industry leading. If they introduce an 18mp camera, they will be behind a few years with a new release.

Click to expand...

18 MP would be fine if the overall IQ were superior. Look at the M9 -- Mind numbingly great at low ISOs. The IQ coming out of the 5dm2 and 1dsm3 is not that great (I went over some 5dm2 RAW files a couple of days ago, and it killed off my periodically resurgent urge to buy one--too much chroma noise, and at 100 percent looks like it's going to fall apart and too soft, like a 50D). The IQ challenge for Nikon, IMHO, is to get better at the AA/microlens/sensor toppings where Canon seems to have had an advantage prior to the D3x. High ISO at this point is gee whiz neato, but it's kicking a dead horse when basic IQ is still below the "vintage" 5D at lower ISOs... The D3, for example, is "soft" compared to a 5dm1, leading some crazy people like me to have AA filters removed. So while the D3 trounces the 5dm1 above ISO 1600, it is not entirely superior... RG's D3s comparison shots make it look like Nikon might have made some progress on the AA in the D3s vs the D3, which would be fab in my book. If I could have a sharp 12.1 MP, that would make me happy for the next couple of years. The only reason a person like myself would consider 24 MP now is to get that bit of extra detail that is missing from the D3.

In any case, an 18 MP camera would be plenty credible so long as the IQ kicked some Canon tail. Who cares about a measly 3 MP on that scale?

--
David Hill
http://www.sfbayweddingphotographer.com
San Francisco, CA | Austin, TX
Certified Wedding Photography Junky™

Click to expand...

Perceived sharpness of a print is determined by 11 factors:

1) The resolution of the camera sensor,

2) The per pixel sharpness of the sensor,

3) The resolution of the lens,

4) The captured object (only high frequent, fine detailed scenes will significantly benefit from more than the 12 MP the D3 can resolve),

5) Raw converter used,

6) Sharpening method,

7) Interpolation method,

8) Printer used,

9) Paper used,

10) Size of the print (and obtained PPI)

11) Viewing distance.

If a D700x/D800 comes along with 18 MP there will be more in the 1) cathegory but how about the lens and the captured subject? Will a blind test with a side by side compared print from the D3s and D700x show obvious differences?

Twink twice:

http://garynylander.blogspot.com/2008/08/print-test-nikon-d3-vs-4-x-5-view.html

em_dee_aitch said:

zzddrr said:

em_dee_aitch said:

zzddrr said:

3) Canon and Sony will likely to come out in January with cameras around 32MP

Click to expand...

And which rational people care? Canon does not have the glass quality on the wide end to support that. The 16-35m2 won't. The 24/1.4m2 might. It would just be a larger wave of people buying English-made adapters to mount Nikon's 14-24 on their Canon bodies

Click to expand...

and using them on a Canon body. To be honest, don't you think that they would not slowly come out with some lenses? In the meantime they could advertise themselves that they have the best resolution. Most will understand even though 6MP would do the trick for them. But it's all about perception.

Click to expand...

All about perception.... That is part of the problem, because for more serious people it's about the IQ. Just not impressed with Canon's current line up, which I think has actually regressed in some important IQ ways against their own classics.

As to the glass, I think Canon put itself in a hard place releasing a troubled 16-35m2 only two years ago. They already need to replace it, and that is way more soon than normal. That lens is quite odd in that its performance at 16-21 is way better than the m1 lens, but it has the very weird "dark cornering" (distinct from vignetting, very dark just at tips of corners) that no lens I've ever owned has, and at 24-35 it underperforms its predecessor.

Click to expand...

Good point David. I have a feeling that pretty soon we may have so many lens announcements that we wouldn't have time turning our heads. I mean if these companies go beyond the 30MP they will have to support that with glass.