Are FX DSLR's going away?

We are going to see FX sensors with 12 MP and maybe 48 MP at the same time in a FX size......... 12MP at 3200 iso and 48 MP at 200 iso.....
We wont have 2 lines of cameras S and X but just one.
I wont bet on that but thats a very likely scenario for the future.
We will have Medium format and Fx size just like in the old days.... ; )
Peter

Just as Nikon and Sony introduce 135 framed cameras and other companies are supposed to get them next year, You ask this question. Canon also introduces a new model (5D MKII) and everyone is waiting for the 1DsMKIV too.
By what method do you try to make the jump that the format is dyiing?

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Don't take yourself so seriously. No one else does.
Chris, Broussard, LA

Read the rest of the thread before you jump to conclusions.

Danlo said:

Eh.. ? Sorry, but its probably the opposite, at least in a 5 year time frame. Apc-s sensor will the standard in compacts and FX will be standard in Dslr:s in five years.

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Do you really think so? isnt there still a size limit with compacts? bigger sensor = bigger lens, consumers are going to want things just to get smaller and with more utility (think samsung and Sony's offerings for camera phones)

Don't you hate these types of new DSLR users. They upgrade from their p&s and get their D40 and start posting in the pro body forum. They ought to educate themselves with the history before posting. Waste of bits on the internet. I doubt the original poster ever owned a film DSLR with such a nonsense post.

Eric HianCheong said:

Danlo said:

Eh.. ? Sorry, but its probably the opposite, at least in a 5 year time frame. Apc-s sensor will the standard in compacts and FX will be standard in Dslr:s in five years.

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Do you really think so? isnt there still a size limit with compacts? bigger sensor = bigger lens, consumers are going to want things just to get smaller and with more utility (think samsung and Sony's offerings for camera phones)

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consumer's love compacts (and tiny chips) cos they are light and everything is in focus. imagine all the out-of-focus shots if all compacts had 4/3 or 1.5 cop chips?

How does that change what I said. The arguement that Dx lenses have been upgraded more recently is also not looking at the facts. FX lenses work just fine on DX cameras. DX cameras have not been around long enough to have older lenses. What else do you think I missed?

The fact is that the most recent camera introduced by Nikon is an FX model. Does that have any bearing on this debate? People have been crying for an FX model for years and Nikon works like crazy to get to them and they are supposed to be abandoning it? I don't buy it.

That's the conclusion I jumped to.

pagenine said:

Read the rest of the thread before you jump to conclusions.

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--
Don't take yourself so seriously. No one else does.
Chris, Broussard, LA

pagenine said:

kevin focht said:

Do a search for the D3S and then get back to me.

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The issue here is that most of you are looking 2 months into the future and I'm looking 2 or more years ahead.

After this next wave of 24mp FX cameras w/video, then what?

I'm simply opining that there will be an eventual separation between DX and MX and that the next generations of sensors will not focus as much on sensor size as much as HDR, file size, 3d or a combination of all 3.

I think manufacturers will choose 1.3x as a trade off to incorporate the new advances and keep files at a reasonable size.

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Crop size has nothing to do with file size. Computers are faster than they have ever been. A 1TB hard drive is less than I paid for my 8mb hard drive not thaty long ago (it seems).

pagenine said:

High end still cameras will go with much larger sensors leaving the typical 35mm sized sensor behind. See Red, Hass, and other cameras.

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Hasselblad has been around for a long time. Red is going to be swallowed up by Sony as soon as they decide to introduce a better camera for less.

In 20 years, the digital camera market will look a lot like it did at the end of film:

DX size framed cameras will be the budget cameras. Think APS cameras with film. Real cute litttle cameras that do more than cameras do today. All the way up to serious shooting models with interchangeabke lenses shared with the FX format. Sounds like today doesn't it?

FX cameras will be split in price and features for enthusiasts and professional sports shooters. Teh old 35mm group. Which is the most versatile and portable camera.

MF cameras like the Hasselblad (if they survive) will be used for wedding shooters and light advertising and landscape shooters. Sensors will be up to 6x6cm.

Larger than Medium format like 6x9 sensors will be used for landscape uses and advertising

Large format bigger than 6x9 will be used by serious landscape shooters advertizing and serious artists who print wall sized. File sizes for 4x5 cameras will be 2TB files or more. Although, I don't see any 16x20 models in my vision.

In other words, uses will settle down into mostly like what they were before digital. Except most of them will also do video.

pagenine said:

I'm not saying this is going to happen tomorrow, but I think things are on the verge of blowing up.

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--
Don't take yourself so seriously. No one else does.
Chris, Broussard, LA

pagenine said:

I live in Fairfax.

You can play with 3D photography fairly easily. I found an article online that explains how to do it. It does require the old school red/blue 3D glasses (which thankfully I kept from some old movie). It is time consuming and until I get a little better at it, can only get good effects by shooting objects in my studio, but this winter I plan on trying some stuff outside around the city.

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That's already being done with polarizing lenses. You can see a 3D movie at the Smithsonian theaters today. Nothing new here. 1970's technology. In fact, it works really well. Just go to one and watch all the kids reaching out for the item on the screen. The reason it's not more popular is that you need special equipment to take it and to see it (glasses with the polarizing lenses 90 degrees apart in orientation). You absolutley have to have two lenses, just like you have to have two eyes to see depth. But if you can make the viewing system easier to use, you wil be filthy rich. because we aren't going to wear glasses to look at your computer, or your TV screen any time soon. You just won't be able to get a print to work as well except in special lighting conditions.

--
Don't take yourself so seriously. No one else does.
Chris, Broussard, LA

That's true. I agree that the way I'm doing it now is very old school, but it's all I have. The next generation of TV's are going to have fast enough refresh rates and high enough resolutions to incorporate a new technology 3D method. I think they've been playing with it at Sony and Panasonic.

You don't need the 3D glasses with the new camera that just came out. You do however need the special 9" viewer (sold separately).

Your looking 2 months into the future, I'm looking two or more years into it.

The issue is not just lenses, which btw have been very slow to catch up with the higher resolutions of bigger sensors, but the type of images we'll all be shooting in 2-5 years.

Read down through most of the threads in the Nikon, Canon and Sony forums and ask yourself what so many people want from their cameras.

You'll find HDR at the top of the list followed closely by higher ISO's (which have finally been sorted out for most people). Then you have the people that want hi-def video and then you have the megapixel people.

In order to achieve all this in one camera, I believe the sensor technology will have to change.

I also believe that 3D is going to happen sooner than many think and that too, will require a sensor re-think.

I never claimed I don't like FX cameras (i have 2). I just think FX, as we know it now will have to change from the standard 35mm size we use today.

I took a real ong time for the US to switch to the DTV system. I don't forsee any new TV technology being ontroduced. Maybe a computer monitor, but not a TV.

pagenine said:

That's true. I agree that the way I'm doing it now is very old school, but it's all I have. The next generation of TV's are going to have fast enough refresh rates and high enough resolutions to incorporate a new technology 3D method. I think they've been playing with it at Sony and Panasonic.

You don't need the 3D glasses with the new camera that just came out. You do however need the special 9" viewer (sold separately).

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--
Don't take yourself so seriously. No one else does.
Chris, Broussard, LA

I'll go out on a limb and guess that I've been shooting probably twice as long as you (going deep into the film era) and that I currently own far nicer gear than you. Lets see what I have in my smaller ThinkTank bag.

D700 w/battery pack
Nikon 24-70mm f/2.8
Nikon 80-200mm f/2.8
Sigma 120-400mm
3- SB-900
2- SBR-200
1- SU-900
snoot
small soft box
my own designed Fong clone diffusor
batteries (for flash)
Macbook Pro w/ Aperture, CS3, RD

I have D80, but it won't fit in that bag, so I have a huge LowePro bag that can fit all my stuff, plus a tripod and one more light stand.

I have a studio with (2) Photogenic 750 and lots of misc hot lights and smaller strobes, bg paper on rollers and a rail system.

I used to have a B&W darkroom, but had to tear it down because it wasn't practical anymore.

I take photography very seriously and I shoot many styles of photography.

Well, you did go on a limb, but you are not correct. What is this? A gear fight? Well, let's just say the gear you listed is an economy kit. Good for you. Everyone's gotta start out somewhere. Welcome to digital.

As for your original post, anyone who've followed digital for a long time would shake their heads at your post. As someone who plays in both camps, I can tell you FF is just picking up speed. In 2-3 years, the fight will be mainly in FF. We may find DX on the decline. It's Nikon who hasn't fully woken up to FF yet, but they will. I guarantee this will not be a 3 way FF fight. In fact, the fight is expanding next year.

I wasn't trying to start an equipment contest with you or anyone else, but when you assumed I was new to digital when in fact, I've been in it since it's inception and way back into the film era as well, I was simply defending myself (for reasons I haven't figured out just yet).

Actually, I had one of the first Nikon digital cameras (the Coolpix 900 or something like that) and of course it was horrible. Then when the first Canon Rebel came out, I bought one and really started heavily into the digital transition. Then I had a 20D, a 40D, a 5D, a D3 (until recently) and now I have the D700 and a D80.

My original observation was relevant to this forum (and other forums) and I still believe that FX, and possibly DX, as we know it today is on the way out in favor of a whole new technology which is already being used in Hollywood.

FX lenses will need a whole new makeover because of the higher resolutions and newer formats.

FX sensors will start to top off after the next few generations and I think the manufacturers are trying to prepare for it. If they don't, I'm sure someone else will and Nikon and Canon will have to play catch up, like they did with Kodak.

pagenine said:

My original observation was relevant to this forum (and other forums) and I still believe that FX, and possibly DX, as we know it today is on the way out in favor of a whole new technology which is already being used in Hollywood.

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what technology would that be? for film?
no lens perhaps?

As much as I disagree with the OP view of the FF sensor
I find it even more rediculous that you think his gear is an economy Kit

if this is an economy kit I would love to have some of this economy

his gear is high end stuff not economy kit get real

now if he had listed his gear as being a D40/60 D3000 with 18-55 and 55-200 than you would have a case for it being an economy kit
--
Mac OS X: Because making UNIX user friendly was easier than fixing Windows.
http://www.pimshots.com

There has never been a film DSLR camera
What exactly do you think the "D" stands for

It is amazing that you come on here and bash the OP about not knowing anything about cameras and how he probably never used a film DSLR

let me clue you in. There is not single person in the world that has shot a film DSLR now there have been a lot the have shot with a film SLR camera

maybe you are the one that has never used a film SLR camera if you don't know the diffence between a DSLR and a SLR camera ya think

calxn said:

Don't you hate these types of new DSLR users. They upgrade from their p&s and get their D40 and start posting in the pro body forum. They ought to educate themselves with the history before posting. Waste of bits on the internet. I doubt the original poster ever owned a film DSLR with such a nonsense post.

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--
Mac OS X: Because making UNIX user friendly was easier than fixing Windows.
http://www.pimshots.com

pagenine said:

Given the latest offerings from both Nikon and Canon, it would seem that FX cameras are on the way out. Rarely do either manufacturers release FX lens upgrades or new lenses. I'm not sure, but I don't think any FX cameras do video yet and I haven't heard of any in the pipeline.

For a while, I thought it would be DX cameras that would eventually fade away, but I think the opposite is happening now.

What do you guys think?

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...take your pick folks...or perhaps a 'clueless troll'.

--

'He who works with his hands is a laborer. He who works with his hands and his head is a craftsman. He who works with his hands and his head and his heart is an artist.'
--Francis of Assisi--

Marianne Oelund said:

pagenine said:

Given the latest offerings from both Nikon and Canon, it would seem that FX cameras are on the way out. Rarely do either manufacturers release FX lens upgrades or new lenses.

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Since the time of introduction of the D3, there have been a good number:

400/2.8 VR, 500/4 VR, 600/4 VR, 24-70, 14-24, 24mm PC-E, 45mm PC-E, 85mm PC-E, AF-S micro 60/2.8, 50/1.4G, 70-200/2.8G VR2 - how many do you want?

Marianne Oelund said:

I'm not sure, but I don't think any FX cameras do video yet and I haven't heard of any in the pipeline.

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In production: 5D Mk II, D3s. In the pipeline: 1Ds Mk IV, D700x/D800 and likely some Sony models.

Marianne Oelund said:

For a while, I thought it would be DX cameras that would eventually fade away, but I think the opposite is happening now.

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FF is trickling down (e.g., Sony A-850), it's not fading away.

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Thanks for the laugh! I totally agree...'page nine ' is stuck on page one ...permanently, I fear.

--

'He who works with his hands is a laborer. He who works with his hands and his head is a craftsman. He who works with his hands and his head and his heart is an artist.'
--Francis of Assisi--