It would be an interesting marketing challenge to have 2 x 12MP
cameras side by side in their line-up. Presumably the DX version
would be cheaper, so Canon would have to heavily play up the
advantages of FF to sell the 5D at a higher price. But to do this,
they would run the risk of infering that their DX camera was
inferior in some way, and that wouldn't look good. Interesting.
The wildcard would be canon's perception of the market impact by the d200. It might be safe to assume that they learned of the d200 specs long ago, perhaps long enough to have it included in their calculations for their next DX body. Unless they view the d200 as a significant competitor for the middle market, my guess is that they'll come out with no more than 10mp, perhaps even remain at 8mp, but dress up the body with a few more goodies and hang their hat on better high ISO performance.
Before the 5D arrived on the scene I would have agreed. But I think
Nikon now has some serious incentive to deliver a FF model. It was
easy to dismiss the 1DsII since it's price was up there in the
financial stratosphere. By comparison, the 5D is very affordable.
Dunno. The expense of the FF sensors guarantee a niche market. It depends on how important nikon views that market segment and how it fits into their future plans. Then, you have to believe that their FF entry would be at/below the 5d price point. I can't see a consumer body, as a first FF model. Will the pros be content with a 12 to 16mp FF, at a higher cost than the d2x? So, they'd probably be looking at 20+ MPs, which runs the cost of the sensor even higher. Then you have the FF issues to contend with. Would nikon be content to offer a FF without having some kind of solution to those problems?
On top of all that, you have to consider the fact that the low end market, where tons of money can be made, is going to tighten up. It doesn't seem wise for them to sit back and let the d50/d70 stagnate for 3 years, while the competition is offering new technology, higher MPs. The d70 will be 2 years old in March.
But as I said, I'm prepared to wait until PMA 2007. That gives me 2
x PMAs and a Photokina.
Well, I hope you get what you want, but I'm not nearly convinced that it will be a reality as some folks here seem to be. But, my crystal ball is in the shop, so I could easily be wrong.
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my gallery of so-so photos
http://www.pbase.com/kerrypierce/root