Japanese DSLR sales

[mpixel]

It's not so much a matter of how many units can they produce per
month rather it's more a matter of how many units do they think
they can sell a month.

Actually, it is. The production facility for Pentax simply cannot
compare with that for Canon or Nikon. The initial production of
K10D is probably 10 to 15% that of D80. Considering the sales of
K100D and the reception of K10D so far, Pentax could have sold 3 or
4x that number easily. Therefore, I would expect K10D's sales
chart not to be that much different from K100D because of
production limitations.

It cannot compare to Canon or Nikons but do you really think that Pentax could sell 180,000 K100Ds per month even if they could make them? I don't and I don’t think that anyone else does either.

Pentax chose to only make 15,000 K100Ds per month, yet when they made the *ist DS they produced 20,000 black units per month and later they also produced 6,000 silver units per month. With the *ist DL they produced 20,000 units per month while also producing 4,000 *ist DS2s per month. The *ist DL was later replaced by the *ist DL2 with a production run of only 3,000 units per month.

Over the life of the cameras the production figures went something like this:

20,000 *ist DS Black
26,000 *ist DS Black & *ist DS Silver
20,000 *ist DL
24,000 *ist DL & *ist DS2
7,000 *ist DS2 & *ist DL2
15,000 K100D

These production runs were not based on their maximum capacity but on the number of cameras they thought they could sell.

Which is why I said:

"It's not so much a matter of how many units can they produce per month rather it's more a matter of how many units do they think they can sell a month."

Note that the numbers for the K110D are not included but due to its limited distribution and appeal these are believed to be very small.

--
GMT+1 (summertime)

 

[mpixel]

If you notice, EVERY DSLR actually has a peak in the 1st month, and
then a dropoff. The only reason you don't see it for the EOS 400
is that the graph does not extend far enough. It would be expected
that the EOS 400 peak would be double the size of the Sony Alpha
and Nikon D80 peaks, because Canon has much more of the DSLR retail
channel than the other vendors.

There certainly is not any falloff of the D80 sales. What that
graph reflects is sales from the manufacturer into the channel -
NOT from the channel into the end consumers. The patterns are too
early to tell anything, other than the fact that the EOS 400 is
significantly the highest volume (no surprise), while the EOS 30D,
Nikon D80, and Sony Alpha are pretty close to one another in the
2-4 slots, and their relative order remains to be hashed out. It
IS interesting that the Olympus E-330 didn't even make the list,
and the new Pentax is as low as it is.

The 30D isn't on that chart and neither is the 5D the D50 the D70s or the D200 and there are no Olympus cameras on that chart either.

I'm sure that all the cameras mentioned above either are or were selling in higher numbers than the Panasonic camera during at least part of the period of that chart especially considering how few cameras Panasonic plan to sell this year.

The second Canon camera is the 350D and the K100D is the camera released a few months ago rather than the new K10D.

I'm not sure exactly what these figures are supposed to represent but I don’t think that they provide a true representation of the Japanese DSLR market.

--
GMT+1 (summertime)

 

[linuxworks]

What is DMC

DMC-L1, Panasonic's pride and joy.
Looks like it will have Delorean's fait.

you mean if you get it scratched, you just whip out some sandpaper to make it all new again?



--
Bryan (pics only: http://www.flickr.com/photos/linux-works )
(pics and more: http://www.netstuff.org ) ~

 

[DougJGreen]

how when the Japan sales figures for the month of July were first
shown, people were exclaiming how successful the A100 was and how
the market shares of Canon (and very slightly for Nikon) were
dramatically reduced.

And now, when the sales figure for Aug to mid-Sep are shown, people
are ascribing the initial peak sales of the 400D to Canon's big
retail channel.

I guess this is why it's so tough to be at the top.

No, it's just that EVERY camera spikes during it's first month. The Sony's sales were surprisingly strong on intro, but they have come back to reality.

It would be a very severe setback if Canon did NOT have double the sales of any other DSLR in the first month of the EOS 400D's sales, given Canon't presence in the channel, and the sales of the predecessor, and that the 400D is the least expensive 10 Megapixel DSLR out there. Apparently, there was no surprise, the model performed as expected on it's intro. Not better, not worse, but exactly as expected.

 

[Thom Hogan]

Over the life of the cameras the production figures went something
like this:

20,000 *ist DS Black
26,000 *ist DS Black & *ist DS Silver
20,000 *ist DL
24,000 *ist DL & *ist DS2
7,000 *ist DS2 & *ist DL2
15,000 K100D

Just so people don't get confused, those were NOT month-after-month figures. Pentax sold what, 250,000 DSLRs last year, so those numbers you cite have to be maximum monthly production figures, not average.

There have been very few DSLRs that had consistently constant or increasing production numbers over any significant period of time. The D70 was one of them, the Digital Rebel, another.

--
Thom Hogan
author, Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide
editor, Nikon DSLR Report
author, Complete Guides: D50, D70, D100, D200, D1 series, D2h, D2x, S2 Pro
http://www.bythom.com

 

[zygh]

what that spells to me, above all else, is utter defeat for the 4/3 "revolution". somehow, i'm glad beacuse those 4/3 are less bang for more bucks and i hate that. that dmc-l1 had a snotty start price, now it will end up in the dirt where it deserves to be alongside olympus. good riddance, 4/3!

good to see pentax isn't doing that bad. really wish good things to pentax, especially now with the introduction of the magnificent k10. and sony has had that initial peak because of the brand name above all else. now that things have somewhat cooled down, sony sales got to a more realistic level.

p.s. i would have liked for 4/3 to be more of a consciencious approach to dslrs from a budget orientated market, but instead it is pricey while not delivering the goods for that price.

Here's the Japanese DSLR market share chart broken down by
manufacturers:



Blue - Canon
Yellow - Nikon
Red - Sony
Green - Pentax
Pink - Olympus
Gold - Panasonic

 

[austinphotog]

lol.

the chart is meaning less. It shows a partial snapshot of orders in one country.

Pentax is especially strong in its home market, but this chart doesn't really mean that it is that strong. There are blips from product introductions. Without more information I would believe FF, pro, and the 30D are dead too. Go back a month and Sony is way out in #1 position.

good to see pentax isn't doing that bad. really wish good things to
pentax, especially now with the introduction of the magnificent
k10. and sony has had that initial peak because of the brand name
above all else. now that things have somewhat cooled down, sony
sales got to a more realistic level.

p.s. i would have liked for 4/3 to be more of a consciencious
approach to dslrs from a budget orientated market, but instead it
is pricey while not delivering the goods for that price.

Here's the Japanese DSLR market share chart broken down by
manufacturers:



Blue - Canon
Yellow - Nikon
Red - Sony
Green - Pentax
Pink - Olympus
Gold - Panasonic

 

[mpixel]

Over the life of the cameras the production figures went something
like this:

20,000 *ist DS Black
26,000 *ist DS Black & *ist DS Silver
20,000 *ist DL
24,000 *ist DL & *ist DS2
7,000 *ist DS2 & *ist DL2
15,000 K100D

Just so people don't get confused, those were NOT month-after-month
figures.

Yes, good point, I should have made that clear. I should also have added that the initial production run for the K10D has been set at 13,000 units per month.

These are not consistent month-to-month figures but they are the initial monthly production run figures that Pentax chose.

These figures are for the various models that Pentax released from November 2004 - July 2006 (excluding the K110D - but I think that only hit the market in August 2006) and not the models released in a single year. Note that some models had very short lifespans.

Each line shows the number of cameras [based on the initial figure] that should have been in monthly production at a particular point in time (with the exception of the K110D) and I have not seen anything that indicates that the production numbers for these cameras were later raised.

The *ist DS fell short of it’s intended target, which probably explains the very low figure for the *ist DS2. It is also possible that production of the *ist DS Black was reduced or halted when production of the *ist DS Silver began early in 2005 but I have no reports about this.

Pentax sold what, 250,000 DSLRs last year,

Err, not quite. Pentax sold 120,000 DSLRs last year. Their target THIS year is 250,000 DSLRs.

The *ist DS which was released in November 2004 was supposed to sell 100,000 by the end of March 2005 but fell short of it's target leading to the 120,000 target for 2005-2006 which was met.

so those
numbers you cite have to be maximum monthly production figures, not
average.

There have been very few DSLRs that had consistently constant or
increasing production numbers over any significant period of time.
The D70 was one of them, the Digital Rebel, another.

--
Thom Hogan
author, Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide
editor, Nikon DSLR Report
author, Complete Guides: D50, D70, D100, D200, D1 series, D2h, D2x,
S2 Pro
http://www.bythom.com

--
GMT+1 (summertime)

 

[lak]

the chart is meaning less.

Why? It gives you a very clear picture of how DSLRs are selling in Japan. The manufacturer's sales market share chart includes all models, including the FF, pro and 30D. Of course you get blips from model launch - the chart clearly illustrated how a new model performed from launch.

It would be fascinating if we can find similar charts for US or world market. Unfortunately, this won't happen as IDC charges $$$$$$ for such data. And the fact that they succeed in charging so much proves how valuable these type of data is for those in the business.

It shows a partial snapshot of orders
in one country.....There are blips from
product introductions. Without more information I would believe
FF, pro, and the 30D are dead too. Go back a month and Sony is way
out in #1 position.

 

[T3]

The Oly 4/3 system is the modern equivalent of the Oly Pen F system:

http://www.cameraquest.com/olypenf.htm

Heck, Pen F cameras even used porro-prism viewfinders just like the E-300 and E-330! The difference is that this time around, Oly attempted to increase their potential market penetration by selling it as an "open" system, with the hope that more widespread support amongst manufacturers would mean more widespread support amongst consumers. Unfortunately, it looks like 4/3 is going to remain in niche territory, much like the Pen F system. Consumers are clearly not flocking to the 4/3 party. And with other systems adapting the dust-shaker system that was one of the hallmarks of the 4/3 system, that eliminates one potential attraction of the 4/3 system. Plus, the increasing availability of "digital specific" lenses also takes away another potential selling point of the 4/3 system. In the end, the 4/3 system really doesn't have much to stand on.

I think if they had started with the E-400 body, they would have been able to establish a better foothold in the consumer market, with a body that is compact, traditional, economical, and user-friendly- a small, conservative camera for the masses. Instead, they tried to enter the pro market with a "flagship" E-1 that has garnered very little support amongst pros.

good to see pentax isn't doing that bad. really wish good things to
pentax, especially now with the introduction of the magnificent
k10. and sony has had that initial peak because of the brand name
above all else. now that things have somewhat cooled down, sony
sales got to a more realistic level.

p.s. i would have liked for 4/3 to be more of a consciencious
approach to dslrs from a budget orientated market, but instead it
is pricey while not delivering the goods for that price.

Here's the Japanese DSLR market share chart broken down by
manufacturers:



Blue - Canon
Yellow - Nikon
Red - Sony
Green - Pentax
Pink - Olympus
Gold - Panasonic

 

[digital_ray_of_light]

Over the life of the cameras the production figures went something
like this:

20,000 *ist DS Black
26,000 *ist DS Black & *ist DS Silver
20,000 *ist DL
24,000 *ist DL & *ist DS2
7,000 *ist DS2 & *ist DL2
15,000 K100D

Just so people don't get confused, those were NOT month-after-month
figures. Pentax sold what, 250,000 DSLRs last year, so those
numbers you cite have to be maximum monthly production figures, not
average.

There have been very few DSLRs that had consistently constant or
increasing production numbers over any significant period of time.
The D70 was one of them, the Digital Rebel, another.

Yes, they don't tell us exactly when production starts/stops, and they probably won't advertise reduction in product numbers since it doesn't make for good advertising....

--
Thom Hogan
author, Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide
editor, Nikon DSLR Report
author, Complete Guides: D50, D70, D100, D200, D1 series, D2h, D2x,
S2 Pro
http://www.bythom.com

--
Comprehensive Photokina 2006 speculation: http://photographyetc.livejournal.com

 

[digital_ray_of_light]

It's not so much a matter of how many units can they produce per
month rather it's more a matter of how many units do they think
they can sell a month.

Actually, it is. The production facility for Pentax simply cannot
compare with that for Canon or Nikon. The initial production of
K10D is probably 10 to 15% that of D80. Considering the sales of
K100D and the reception of K10D so far, Pentax could have sold 3 or
4x that number easily. Therefore, I would expect K10D's sales
chart not to be that much different from K100D because of
production limitations.

It cannot compare to Canon or Nikons but do you really think that
Pentax could sell 180,000 K100Ds per month even if they could make
them? I don't and I don’t think that anyone else does either.

Pentax chose to only make 15,000 K100Ds per month, yet when they
made the *ist DS they produced 20,000 black units per month and

I think what people are trying to point out is the order of magnitute in current production capacity. Whether Pentax chooses not to produce more, or simply does not have the production capacity I do not know. But you seem to imply that you know that it is simply a matter of choice, not limitiations in production capacity. Do you know that for a fact or just speculating based on numbers?

If you look at their historic monthly numbers they seem to average well below the monthly average of a D-Rebel or the entry-level Nikons...

Pentax is also making an undisclosed number of K110Ds, and (according to posts in the Pentax forum) they may also be using the same facility to roll out the Samsung equivalents (GX10). So that seems to be sort of in the same ballpark as the DS/DL...

I don't think they were running the DS2/DL2 productions in parallel with the DS/DL...

later they also produced 6,000 silver units per month. With the
*ist DL they produced 20,000 units per month while also producing
4,000 *ist DS2s per month. The *ist DL was later replaced by the
*ist DL2 with a production run of only 3,000 units per month.

Over the life of the cameras the production figures went something
like this:

20,000 *ist DS Black
26,000 *ist DS Black & *ist DS Silver
20,000 *ist DL
24,000 *ist DL & *ist DS2
7,000 *ist DS2 & *ist DL2
15,000 K100D

These production runs were not based on their maximum capacity but
on the number of cameras they thought they could sell.

Which is why I said:

"It's not so much a matter of how many units can they produce per
month rather it's more a matter of how many units do they think
they can sell a month."

Note that the numbers for the K110D are not included but due to its
limited distribution and appeal these are believed to be very small.

--
GMT+1 (summertime)

--
Comprehensive Photokina 2006 speculation: http://photographyetc.livejournal.com

 

[Tim in upstate NY]

....on the A100 after the initial introduction because there was a pent up demand by KM owners who had KM lenses and had been wanting to upgrade and who were waiting for SONY to satisfy their needs with a DSLR successor to the KM line. This pent up demand wasn't enough to sustain those early introductory sales numbers for very long as that graph clearly shows.

 

[Joesiv]

Interesting Chart, I've never seen one done for Percentages before.

The origional poster said there was no peak, but indeed there is a peak, it's just masked by the fact that this chart is measing percentages against all these cameras. The L1 didn't sell nearly as much even at it's "peak" so it's not registering as high on the percentage of sales.

However, this chart exagerates the "relative" low sales by having the release of the L1 coinsiding two other major releases which had guarenteed sales.

If the L1 was launched a month earlier or later the chart might have shown it's sales spike up higher since the initial sales of the other new releases wouldn't hinder it's percent (much like late releases looking amazing yet, it's just because all the early adopters already had the other cameras long before, so it's the only new camera on the market making it the highest percent of sales at that time.

oh well, interesting graph, I'd like to see total sales though, percentages are a bit hard to read.
--
Cloverdale, B.C., Canada
Panasonic Lumix FZ50
http://joesiv.smugmug.com

 

[digital_ray_of_light]

how when the Japan sales figures for the month of July were first
shown, people were exclaiming how successful the A100 was and how
the market shares of Canon (and very slightly for Nikon) were
dramatically reduced.

And now, when the sales figure for Aug to mid-Sep are shown, people
are ascribing the initial peak sales of the 400D to Canon's big
retail channel.

Well not everyone said that. Quite a few people (including me) pointed out the fact that that was simply a short snapshot of the market during the relatively show summer months. Fun numbers, interesting to look at and speculate on/from, but we need more long-term data to get a better grip on the market

I guess this is why it's so tough to be at the top.

There certainly is not any falloff of the D80 sales. What that
graph reflects is sales from the manufacturer into the channel -
NOT from the channel into the end consumers. The patterns are too
early to tell anything

Interesting that this was not immediately pointed out when the A100
was first released.

while the EOS 30D,
Nikon D80, and Sony Alpha are pretty close to one another in the
2-4 slots

... not forgetting that the 30D has been around for a few months
now while the D80 is a very recent product.

IS interesting that the Olympus E-330 didn't even make the list,

Perhaps because the Oly E330 is a little more expensive?

Do not forget another thing: this is just the Japanese market.

But as I understand, Japanese companies are typically more
concerned about achieving success in their own country than
overseas sales.

-------------------------------------------
See the colors of my world in:
thw.smugmug.com
-------------------------------------------

--
Comprehensive Photokina 2006 speculation: http://photographyetc.livejournal.com

 

[digital_ray_of_light]

I sound like a broken record, but the Panasonic L1 is not intended to sell in big numbers. Panasonic is only making a few thousand of them per month, and combined with their high price, it is clear that Panasonic is not expecting them to make a dent in the market share charts. Just like the LC-1, the primary purposes appears to be a flagship camera for technical/marketing/advertising purposes, to establish themselves in the eyes of the market, etc, etc, etc...

We have to wait for Panasonic to produce a mass-market DSLR before we can make any statements such as the ones below...

good to see pentax isn't doing that bad. really wish good things to
pentax, especially now with the introduction of the magnificent
k10. and sony has had that initial peak because of the brand name
above all else. now that things have somewhat cooled down, sony
sales got to a more realistic level.

p.s. i would have liked for 4/3 to be more of a consciencious
approach to dslrs from a budget orientated market, but instead it
is pricey while not delivering the goods for that price.

Here's the Japanese DSLR market share chart broken down by
manufacturers:



Blue - Canon
Yellow - Nikon
Red - Sony
Green - Pentax
Pink - Olympus
Gold - Panasonic

--
Comprehensive Photokina 2006 speculation: http://photographyetc.livejournal.com

 

[thw]

-------------------------------------------
See the colors of my world in:
thw.smugmug.com

 

[T3]

We have to wait for Panasonic to produce a mass-market DSLR before
we can make any statements such as the ones below...

But would a Panasonic mass-market DSLR really do any better than Oly's mass-market DSLRs? What it'll probably do is canabalize much of Oly's 4/3 market just as much as it expands the 4/3 market. So it's two steps forward, once step back. Or it may not expand the market much at all. So in the end, you might just end up with two dogs fighting over the same small bone.

I don't think Panasonic is going to accomplish much more than Oly has been able to accomplish. Oly is a more familiar name in photography anyways. Consumers associate Olympus with photography more readily than they associate Panasonic. So I think that a Panasonic mass-market DSLR would not do any better than Oly's mass market DSLRs.

 

[T3]

Well not everyone said that. Quite a few people (including me)
pointed out the fact that that was simply a short snapshot of the
market during the relatively show summer months. Fun numbers,
interesting to look at and speculate on/from, but we need more
long-term data to get a better grip on the market

The long-term data is simply going to show that Canon still maintains a strong grip on the market, regardless of what attempts the competition has been able to muster. The short-term data shows that, whatever temporary gains the competition was able to make, Canon was quickly able to reverse and neutralize it. And they did it with a fairly modest, low-investment update to their existing XT/350D. In other words, they barely lifted a finger, and were still able to achieve sales percentages that were as much as all the other brands combined.

 

[DougJGreen]

The issue for Canon was never how easily they could make a new Rebel with a 10 MP sensor. The problem they faced was in the market positioning and pricing. I am willing to bet that they ended up largely killing the sales of the 30D, quite early in it's life cycle in order to do this.

They may well have had to sacrifice some profitability in order to keep their market share here.

Right now, until they bring out a new 10 MP (or even 12 MP) 40D, they have a major hole in their product line. And if they bring out the 40D this year, they will clearly have admitted that they took a hit on the 30D.