Brent wrote:
"...Will the prices eventually dramatically drop as we saw with computer memory?"
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I'm afraid the value-adjusted price gap between SLR systems (designed to use interchangeable lenses) will not narrow as quickly or as closely as one might think (or perhaps at all?).
Pardon the long post, but here's my 2 cents.
Traditional SLR systems (I own 2) are fancy boxes used for 2 things:
-1- to hang optics on
-2- to hold the recording medium (film)
Everything else from autofocus, to image stabilization, to hotshoes is incidental to 1 & 2.
Not surprisingly 1 & 2 are closely related. It is a source of great frustration to most digital SLR users that all of their glass is subjected to a 1.3-1.5 "multiplier". This is of course due to the fact that the sensors used in these cameras are smaller than a 35mm film frame.
The history of semiconductor manufacturing is summed up in 2 words: "smaller" and "denser" (is that a word?). BTW "faster" and "lower power" are generally by-products of smaller and denser.
Example: Sony produces the 3.3Mp part used in many digicams over the last year. Recently they introduced a 5Mp part which (I think) is the same size as the 3.3Mp part. Denser. No doubt a 7+Mp sensor is in development now.
To comfortably fit a box built for 35mm film (and hence the lenses), we need "bigger" sensors...and unfortunately that term does not appear in the list. It can be done, but only at a cost that exceeds the benefits most of us would stand to reap. The deafening silence from Contax and Pentax regarding their full-frame 6Mp products may be mute testimony to this.
While there are certainly more features to consider than simply the pixel count, most can be applied to higher density, smaller sensors too. They can also be applied more quickly because the development cost can be spread over a larger number of units. What disadvantages smaller, denser sensors might have (higher suseptibility to moise?) are often mitigated by the inclusion of other features...features that add real value to the system, but still cost significantly less that full-frame sensors.
The question is not "if" it would be a good thing to have a full-frame, high-sensitivity, low noise part that covers the full 35mm frame size. The answer to that is "Of course." Rather, the question has to be asked and answered in an economic context.
Will prices come down? The answer is "certainly yes". However the prices that come down the most and the fastest will be those subject to Moore's law:
These include:
- sensors (measured in $ Mpixel, dynamic range, etc.)
- electronic storage (buffer memory, CF cards, Microdrives, etc.)
- A/D converters
- internal processors
By Products of these may include:
- electronic image stabilization
- in-camera correction of
pin-cushioning/barrel distortion
- faster "burst modes"
- larger buffers
- better noise control/reduction
- longer battery life
- faster flush times, etc.
Yes, conventional equipment prices will came down also. But not for the same reason and not at the same rate. Manufacturers have been wringing production efficiencies out of conventinal camera body and lens production for more than a century. And we've already seen that producing larger sensors is "swimming upstream".
Instead, these prices will fall initially because of decreased demand. Or, to put it another way, to maintain production volumes in the face of increasing competition from digital systems. -Not because they are not outstanding products, but because the market for a conventional 35mm Nikon VR or Canon IS lens is
much smaller when you can get an electronically stabilized digicam with 3-5-7 Mpixels for less. 80% of the functionality for 10% of the price? (that may not be the best example, but you get my point.)
Eventually, prices for conventional products will stabilize as minimum manufacturing economies of scale are reached and no further discounting is possible. Finally, product catalogs will be reduced. Focusing the demand that used to be spread across 30 lenses to merely 20, or 10. This is the same product life cycle we've seen repeated endlessly in computers and peripherals. Closer to home, it's similar what the AF boom did to manual focus equipment.
Of course, I could post this tonight and then read tomorrow that (you fill in the blank) has just announced shipping production quantities of a full-frame 10Mpixel sensor at a super agressive price point and OEM deals with several major camaer manufacturers. It could happen...but I'm not holding my breath. ;->
Regards,
Glenn