How long to wait for Z9 availability?

[old_but_still_good]

Ok, I know this is a pretty stupid question for a lot of obvious reasons. Nonetheless, I’m curious what opinions are on how long it will take to actually get delivery of a new Z9 assuming one (pre)orders immediately after the announcement who isn't an NPS member.

I just took a look on B&H and even the D6 is not currently in stock and it was announced a while ago. My last experience was trying to buy a 500mm PF lens and after waiting for well over a year I finally had to just ask for my money back.

I would ideally like to have it by next summer but something tells me that is unlikely. Maybe I’m just too skeptical. Nikon makes great products if you can get them, which seemed to be big problem even pre-covid.

Keith

 

[goldaccess]

12 month if you are non-NPS and not first in line.

 

[Cryhavoc38]

My first choice when looking for hardware is not a large online retailer where everyone goes to. The odds of snagging a piece of hot kit is significantly low due to the number of people who also go to that same online shop.

Try local camera shops in your state and neighboring states that are authorized dealers. Many times they get a few allocated each month and will certainly love to have your business.

 

[TomS53]

+1 on your local camera shop. Stay Safe!

 

[archerscreek]

I think you’ll easily be able to have it by the summer of 2022 if you’re one of the first in line, probably a lot sooner than that. Nikon has said they’re focusing their efforts on mirrorless, so it’s not surprising a low quantity DSLR is out of stock. I think you’ll have it within 3-4 months if you order next week and it’s an actual release rather than the ridiculous announcement/quasi-release but not an official release debacle Canon did with the R3. Although, I have more faith in Nikon making enough products versus the ships sitting offshore full of stocked containers waiting to be unloaded, so who knows. Haha

 

[PLShutterbug]

Ok, I know this is a pretty stupid question for a lot of obvious reasons. Nonetheless, I’m curious what opinions are on how long it will take to actually get delivery of a new Z9 assuming one (pre)orders immediately after the announcement who isn't an NPS member.

You're right.

No one, maybe not even Nikon, knows what the delays will be. I work for a hardware manufacturer and we are being told 60 weeks - 6 quarters - for some components right now. But that can go up or down based on conditions. If we don't get enough people convinced to vaccinate that we can get the economy at full capacity again without fear of further spikes, those peoples' resistance to sense could cause an Epsilon variant to screw things up even more.

I just took a look on B&H and even the D6 is not currently in stock and it was announced a while ago. My last experience was trying to buy a 500mm PF lens and after waiting for well over a year I finally had to just ask for my money back.

I imagine the D6 was in stock for a while, and then demand exceeded supply at the same time the chip shortage kicked in. So it's not like the D6 was released but never got into stores' stock, it likely did but is now backordered.

You didn't have to ask for your money back; you chose to.

I would ideally like to have it by next summer but something tells me that is unlikely. Maybe I’m just too skeptical. Nikon makes great products if you can get them, which seemed to be big problem even pre-covid.

Before COVID there were some problems with new things. But I was able to walk into my local store in March 2019 and buy a full Z7 kit. I got the 14-30 shortly after it started shipping.

A problem with being a relatively smaller player is you have to balance production against forecasts. My hope is Nikon has realized its Z-mount system items are all wild successes and has ordered much higher production. Now it's a matter of them getting stock of components to make them, and then getting them across the Pacific to their destination.

Again, this all comes down to people finally stopping their resistance to science, and getting vaccinated. Then this pandemic will finally be done.

 

[DLBlack]

The camera store in Louisville KY has 8 people on their pre-order list for the Z9. I thought it was amazing since the camera has not even been officially announced. So it should be a hot seller and their will be a long wait to get one.

 

[[email protected]]

the sooner you will get one.

 

[Leonard Shepherd]

If you are lucky and at the front of a short queue - my guess is 6 to 8 weeks from now.

If you are not already in a short queue - if you are very lucky middle of next year.

 

[Droster]

One thing to note is this thing is not cheap or mass market. The initial rush may be quick as heads think clearly before they spend. And after that is over, the wait won’t be long as it’ll be a come and go thing,

 

[Nevijeff]

If this camera exceeds expectations regarding specs & price point I'm guessing as a non NPS member 6-12 months unless you know someone :-D, unfortunately I do not.

 

[photography-lover]

We cannot completely overrule the possibility that Nikon may learn from their past mistakes.

On the other hand the global chip shortage and remaining direct covid impacts may make the whole exercise even more challenging for Nikon than it normally would have been for such a hotly anticipated release.

My guess is that the camera will start shipping around 15-Dec in some quantities.

 

[Joe1713]

Somebody posted that it will take 12 months for anyone not NPS who did not order on the first day of release, 28 October 2021.
I believe that is entirely realistic since I ordered the Z9 on 28 October around 7pm.
I'm still waiting for shipment. It's been almost 22 weeks now. Twenty-two weeks waiting and I ordered on the first day. So yeah since B&H and Adorama are still working off their 28 October backlog, late comers may well have to wait an entire year.

 

[Leonard Shepherd]

Somebody posted that it will take 12 months for anyone not NPS who did not order on the first day of release, 28 October 2021.
I believe that is entirely realistic

"We" do not know total demand - as an example in USA.

As far as is known serial numbers for USA did not exceed 6,500 at the 28th Feb - though there was a significant jump with a 1st March report.

Current reports are USA around serial number 7,550 a few days ago.

This implies over 1,000 units a month being received in USA.

If USA firm back orders are currently 6,000 the implied average wait is around 6 months, 12,000 around 12 months and so on.

Different retailers have different numbers of back orders relative to supply from Nikon.

 

[WhateverNickname]

I was told end of january mine is on the next shipment .... well, that next shipment has not arrived yet. It is like supply has dried out

 

[Lime Green]

I was told end of january mine is on the next shipment .... well, that next shipment has not arrived yet. It is like supply has dried out

Nikon cycles deliveries between their markets, or so it seems. When USA deliveries slow we see increased reports of deliveries in the UK, EU or elsewhere.

Use stock tracker tools and sites to identify availability and patterns. Your best chance is probably picking one up from your small local shop or online via Amazon or Best Buy. The order queues at B&H, Adorama and the like are so long and many people have orders at multiple sites like this, which muddles the situation even more. And when I say Amazon or Best Buy, I'm talking paying actual retail price, not some marked up something or other from a third party seller.

Best Buy has had the Z9 in stock off and on throughout the day, most days over the past two weeks. It's already popped up at least once today. Keep checking, but remember lots of people are checking and they go quick.

 

[PaulDunlopPhotography]

I had a mid day order on Oct 28 at B&H

then I went into my local store on Dec 17 and got on their list for a $100 deposit - I was number 42 on the list

I checked last week and I'm now number 12 on the list - so I came home and canceled my BH order (hopefully this will help you!)

the note about 12 month from ordering is that Japanese online seller - I wouldn't worry about that one

try a local store or two - get your name on your list - I think you will get is sooner than putting in a BH order at this point

Good luck to you

 

[Cryhavoc38]

IF anyone within the bestbuy delivery zone wants a Z9 then do this

go to bestbuy.com

search Nikon Z9

bookmark the page and leave it up on your phone or computer

refresh it throughout the day several times, as many times as you personally have the time for.

When they come back into stock add it to your cart and be prepared to act fast, ie already have an account created there, have your CC info handy and ready to go

notify your CC issuer that you will be making a large purchase (if required)

STAY LOGGED IN to the bb site.

within a few days of doing all the above, you will catch the Z9 in stock and be able to buy one.

Trust me, myself and many others have received our Z9's very quickly by doing all the above.

You just have to be vigilant in checking their site every day many times a day until you see that lovely "add to cart" message..but again, you have to be ready to complete the checkout process as fast as humanly possible, because you are competing with many others who are trying to do the same thing.

 

[Joe1713]

I know how you feel. I bought mine from B&H on 28 October 2021, the day it was released. Not an NPS member. Not received the camera as of today, 1 April 2022.
People write all sorts of stuff about the demand for the Z9, how many are produced and how many are shipped to the US. All without any facts.
My best guess is I will know when I get mine when B&H sends me a "it's on the way" notice. From my experience having to wait a year for the camera if ordered today is probably not far off. I have already waited 5 months for mine. Since B&H and all the big camera stores push NPS members to the head of the line I'm dropping all the big camera stores from stores to do business with. Trouble is, little retailers like Best Buy and even Amazon have a huge demand list but get few cameras.
I have my name in for a Z9 with Best Buy for months now and have not heard a thing.
I see a refurbished Z9 on sale at Amazon today for $7500.

 

[Leonard Shepherd]

how many are produced and how many are shipped to the US. All without any facts.

There seems to be some reasonable facts.

Ricci quoted Nikon's ability to produce 3500 units a month just before the end of last year.

We know from USA and UK serial numbers posted on this forum that serial numbers in each location are approaching 8,000, and a little more historical the photosynthesis site reported serial numbers.

What "we" do not know is what the real demand is, other than most retailers seem to indicate demand is still huge.

If Ricci's figure is accurate the annual production is around 40,000. If Nikon can increase production by 20% the number is around 50,000.

The chances of Nikon opening a second production line "instantly" and sourcing the extra parts with serious new Covid lock-downs current in China I speculate are low.

If demand is 100,000 compared to probably 40-50,000 annual production some will have a long wait :-(

Those who have used Nikon as long as I have may recall the original 18-200 DX lens was on back-order for over 2 years.

--
Leonard Shepherd
In lots of ways good photography is much more about how equipment is used rather than anything else.