Hate to be a downer... but...

[Robert Holloway]

Looking at CIPA data reveals some shocking truths about our hobby / industry. When we are next screaming for more new products, look at this.

Camera sales skyrocketed from 1999 to 2007 until Apple introduced the iPhone.

Digital camera sales 6 years ago were at 122 million units. Last year they were at 35 million. This is a 71% decline in 5 years!

OVF SLR sales were at almost 17 million in 2012 when mirrorless was introduced. They had dropped to 9.8 million in 2015. A decline of 48% in 3 years!

Here's the problem. Mirrorless is doing well, but its still small, at less than 10% of total.

Not a happy outlook. Our hobby is in a very rapid decline.

Rob

CIPA - Camera and Imaging Products Association

 

[Nebrie]

If your hobby is photography, then things have never been better. If your hobby is G.A.S., then I see your point.

 

[Abrak]

Looking at CIPA data reveals some shocking truths about our hobby / industry. When we are next screaming for more new products, look at this.

Camera sales skyrocketed from 1999 to 2007 until Apple introduced the iPhone.

Digital camera sales 6 years ago were at 122 million units. Last year they were at 35 million. This is a 71% decline in 5 years!

OVF SLR sales were at almost 17 million in 2012 when mirrorless was introduced. They had dropped to 9.8 million in 2015. A decline of 48% in 3 years!

Here's the problem. Mirrorless is doing well, but its still small, at less than 10% of total.

Not a happy outlook. Our hobby is in a very rapid decline.

Rob

CIPA - Camera and Imaging Products Association

Still the numbers are pretty misleading....

Compact camera sales have been declining since the introduction of the iphone 'because' compact cameras have largely been replaced by iphone and other smartphone cameras (usually 2 cameras on a smartphone). In 2015 1.4billion smartphones were sold worldwide - 10x peak compact camera sales.

Since the introduction of the iphone, the number of interchangeable lens cameras sold has actually increased from 7.5m in 2007 to 13m in 2015 (including mirrorless). Although ILCs sales have fallen from their peak in 2012, there has been plenty of growth.

And the fact that ILC sales are off their peak doesnt mean that 'our hobby' is declining but more probably reflects the fact that our cameras are already pretty good and dont need changing every/every other year. A bit like smartphones - their sales are expected to decline this year but I dont think people are using smartphones less- I can only wish...

 

[JonBH]

Looking at CIPA data reveals some shocking truths about our hobby / industry. When we are next screaming for more new products, look at this.

Camera sales skyrocketed from 1999 to 2007 until Apple introduced the iPhone.

Digital camera sales 6 years ago were at 122 million units. Last year they were at 35 million. This is a 71% decline in 5 years!

OVF SLR sales were at almost 17 million in 2012 when mirrorless was introduced. They had dropped to 9.8 million in 2015. A decline of 48% in 3 years!

Here's the problem. Mirrorless is doing well, but its still small, at less than 10% of total.

Not a happy outlook. Our hobby is in a very rapid decline.

Rob

CIPA - Camera and Imaging Products Association

I don't like reading these numbers either.

Guess the old adage that the best camera is the one you have with you is a good enough for the masses.

I wonder though in addition to the iPhone, if the incumbent camera manufacturer's penchant for protecting the dozens of models they offer by crippling and leaving features off of a particular model solely for the purpose of creating a new model and/or protecting an existing model. Seems like they have been dragging their feet.

 

[tommiejeep]

Yup Robert, that's the way things are going....

It really does not matter how people want to interpret the stats...

My son has been shooting digital cameras since he was 4. He is now 15 and only shoots his Smartphone . The only time he picks up his EM1,40-150 2.8 or his D7100, 80-400 VR afs is to shoot wildlife/birds. He has had two photo exhibitions (sold well) and won a couple of awards.

but... what I am seeing is that a large number of young people are wanting prints these days , not just images on Social Media. It looks as if there are Apps which will allow for this but at the moment he, and some of his friends send their images to his mom to print . Interesting that, here in Goa, almost all of the shops that would print images from an memory card have gone out of business.

The other group I see wanting proper cameras are couples with young children. They are always asking about cameras for capturing action and good vids that do not cost too much. Could be entry level DSLRs or Mirrorless.

The cameras on the phones just keep getting better and the, ever increasing, Apps mean that people can process their images in so many ways with the touch of a couple of buttons.

There will always be people that just really enjoy/love photography and using the gear but it is a question of how many .

--
Anticipate the Light and wing it when you get it wrong
Tom
http://taja.smugmug.com/
http://images.nikonians.org/galleries/showgallery.php/cat/500/ppuser/165169

 

[Philnw2]

For the most current 2016 Jan-Mar:

DSLRs in Yen sales (shipments) were down 18% over the same period 2015

Mirrorless in Yen sales (shipments) were up 44% over the same period

In 2015, DSLR sales were 3:1 over mirrorless ILC

In 2016 (3 months only), DSLR ILC sales have dropped to almost 2:1 to mirrorless ILC

At some point i would expect the DSLR to Mirrorless ILC ratio to be stable, but it hasn't reach that point. Since DSLR ILC sales are much bigger than Mirrorless, that it appears and is a downward trend. By themselves, mirrorless ILC are growing rapidly.

I don't see this as a bad news story.

 

[Lightshow]

Looking at CIPA data reveals some shocking truths about our hobby / industry. When we are next screaming for more new products, look at this.

CIPA data isn't the whole truth, it's not for cameras sold, but cameras shipped.

Camera sales skyrocketed from 1999 to 2007

This boom in sales was mostly people discovering that digital photography was much more convenient than film....

until Apple introduced the iPhone.

...Which people discovered is even more convenient than carrying a phone plus camera

Digital camera sales 6 years ago were at 122 million units. Last year they were at 35 million. This is a 71% decline in 5 years!

OVF SLR sales were at almost 17 million in 2012 when mirrorless was introduced. They had dropped to 9.8 million in 2015. A decline of 48% in 3 years!

Not a direct correlation, though it is one of the things that have contributed to DSLR sales dropping, economy, a decline in perceivable improvements with each generation, if your DSLR is far better than you need it to be, what motive is there to upgrade? Size could be a reason to buy a mirrorless, if you are 3-4x more likely to bring a mirrorless with you, that could be seen as better value.

Here's the problem. Mirrorless is doing well, but its still small, at less than 10% of total.

Not a happy outlook. Our hobby is in a very rapid decline.

This decline is just a correction to normal sustainable levels.

Rob

CIPA - Camera and Imaging Products Association

 

[dkeller]

I believe you summed it up very well. When cameras get to the 16-24 mp range there just aren't a lot of people who feel they need anything better so don't buy new cameras. Before that the jumps from 4 to 8 to 12 to 16/20 mp were all important jumps which did warrant moving up.

Total camera sales are down because the old Point and shoot camera buyers are largely satisfied with their phone camera quality.

 

[Abrak]

Apparently the last person without a camera was spotted last year - it probably is down hill from here....



And at only 1.8bn photos posted on the internet a 'day' (2014), it is not clear that anyone does anything much apart from take photos...





--

Domain Suspended

rob collins

Explore rob collins’s 956 photos on Flickr!

www.flickr.com

 

[Knoxis]

The data shows a decline in "real" camera sales, but that does not show a correlation with decline in photographers. Many people are into photography, and for the time being, until someone performs a survey on how many people have taken up photography, we won't know if the hobby is in decline or just camera sales. As the title says, more and more people are happy with the camera at the back of their smartphone. These photographers don't feel the need for a "real" camera because theirs are "good enough". Don't feel too down about declining camera sales, our hobby is still very much worth pursuing — the only people that should feel down about this are the manufacturers.

 

[Astrophotographer 10]

Expected really. My new S7 edge phone takes great photos and now great photos in low light as well. Plus easy to send off to share.

Mirrorless was always going to take share off DSLRs because of the size factor. Not everyone embraces EVFs so DSLRs still have their strong support from that sector plus the Pro sector who appear to still largely use DSLRs (but may add a mirrorless for video etc).

Mobile phone cameras continue to improve at a rapid rate as its a key competing point between phone manufacturers. I imagine that is where the real money for R and D is these days.

These figures are another reason I have chosen Sony. They are moving rapidly to make the best mirrorless camera they can and pack it full of the latest technology whilst DSLR makers are still making incrementally improved excellent cameras but perhaps less exciting.

Greg.

 

[Alpha Photo]

Many people are into photography, and for the time being, until someone performs a survey on how many people have taken up photography, we won't know if the hobby is in decline or just camera sales.

Not just many people - almost all people take photos. There have never been this many photographers as today. Billions of photos are being taken every day. Makes me almost take up some othe hobby, like painting for example

 

[LesPickstock]

Are you not conflating equipment sales figures with the active 'hobby' of photography.... which I'd guess is stronger now than at any time in history... ?

The number of apple trees in the UK is at an all time low... the amount of cider enjoyed by drinkers is at an all time high...

 

[JT26]

Looking at CIPA data reveals some shocking truths about our hobby / industry. When we are next screaming for more new products, look at this.

Camera sales skyrocketed from 1999 to 2007 until Apple introduced the iPhone.

Digital camera sales 6 years ago were at 122 million units. Last year they were at 35 million. This is a 71% decline in 5 years!

OVF SLR sales were at almost 17 million in 2012 when mirrorless was introduced. They had dropped to 9.8 million in 2015. A decline of 48% in 3 years!

Here's the problem. Mirrorless is doing well, but its still small, at less than 10% of total.

Not a happy outlook. Our hobby is in a very rapid decline.

Rob

CIPA - Camera and Imaging Products Association

That doesnt convey that our hobby is in decline at all. Just says that people who used to purchase small compact cameras are happy with their phones and lots of enthusiasts who previously purchases DSLR cameras now likely purchase Mirrorless as the alternative.

 

[olstrup]

Are you not conflating equipment sales figures with the active 'hobby' of photography.... which I'd guess is stronger now than at any time in history... ?

The number of apple trees in the UK is at an all time low... the amount of cider enjoyed by drinkers is at an all time high...

--
LesP

Agree.

Another thing may be that with all the new cameras, the benefits of buying the newest get smaller - diminishing returns - until something revolutionary is eventually introduced (like when film was replaced with digital). Thus more people will stick with the camera they have and like and not buy a new one. Of course, this doesn't apply to the members of this forum, because we are hopelessly addicted gear heads. But we are not representative for all amateur (and pro) photographers. And yet, maybe we too can have our GAS saturated, at least for some time. I bought an A7S last year and have no plans of "upgrading". I also still use my Nikon D700 with pleasure. There's nothing as comforting as using gear one knows well from thousands and thousands of shots. Like I use to say, it's like the comfort of a pair of well worn slippers. I'd venture to say that I shoot better pictures with that gear than I would with the newest and fanciest which I had not had the time to get really familiar with. Something I know the virtues and quirks of throughout. Yes, the high MP count of the latest sensors is impressive and we read that some here are impatiently awaiting the 100MP sensors and feel they need it. But then, my photos are about other things than identifying the subspecies of an ant sitting on a grass straw 50 feet away.

--
"Good photos is not about fancy gear. It's about how you see as a photographer and about being ressourceful with whatever gear you have." (Alfred Eisenstadt, Life photographer)

 

[olstrup]

Many people are into photography, and for the time being, until someone performs a survey on how many people have taken up photography, we won't know if the hobby is in decline or just camera sales.

Billions of photos are being taken every day. Makes me almost take up some othe hobby, like painting for example

Even HCB did in his last years.

 

[FF Pro]

Just wait until the iPhone gets a better native camera app (ISO, aperture, & shutter speed control) and Yongnuo comes out with a lightening wireless manual flash adapter.

 

[tcg550]

My hobby is not in decline, I still shoot whenever I want, whatever I want.

When I want a new camera for my hobby I'll choose on of the many cameras available. I'm not worried that I won't be able to find a camera.

Not sure why I should be depressed about whatever data was posted.

 

[jeffsvisions]

What I think no one here is looking at is the used camera market.

My first Digital camera was purchased in 2009 new , second new was 2010 . since then I have purchased 10 other used and sold 9. these are not counted by anyone. I won't buy new anymore . To many people with GAS. So I buy their slightly used ones.

 

[loitokitok]

Many people are into photography, and for the time being, until someone performs a survey on how many people have taken up photography, we won't know if the hobby is in decline or just camera sales.

Not just many people - almost all people take photos. There have never been this many photographers as today. Billions of photos are being taken every day. Makes me almost take up some othe hobby, like painting for example

I think we have to separate 'memory capturers' from 'photographers'. Almost everyone is one of the former and the convenience of camera phones helps in this immensely. But they are not and most will never aspire to be photographers as enthusiasts.