This is the terrible fix Nikon is in.

[coudet]

Nikon can and never should ignore video - it is going to be an integral part of any consumer imaging device (being a P&S, DSLR, mirrorless or whatever comes next) and also in most pro and enthusiast still cameras.

No surprises there, they've said so themselves:

"Nikon regards video as a function that is of more use to users of lower-end cameras, but ultimately will be a standard function across Nikons entire DSLR range."

 

[RedFox88]

. . . well the new DX lenses as well as the D800 were setup for manufacturing in Thailand.

How do you know where a product that does not exist yet is manufactured?!

But it does exist and was in the field for some time.

Prototypes are always around somewhere, that is not an official product since there can be different variants of a potential new model.

 

[bobn2]

But making a pro video/film cam ... That area is just way to busy with much more experienced competitors anyway.

I agree, unless they have a game changer on their hands. One of which would be a route to doing away with the focus puller. Don't kid yourself that production companies wouldn't welcome the reduction in the size of camera teams. The problem is that AF and power focus technology as currently specced just doesn't suit the way production teams work.

However, I think the job of focus puller could be easily automated, and if that was done, then the value of such a system would be quite large (it would eliminate a salary).

I really do not belive in AF in a traditional sense ever being much of a factor in the cinema world, maybe to some extent in the broadcast realm. Focus is such an integral part of the creative process it is hard to fully automate as we can do within still imaging.

I rather belive in what you and Peter ("Rayman") say about making focus semi-automatic and programmable - " three seconds with focus at distance A, then quicklly shift to distance B, stay for 1 second and then slowly pull towards distance C ". But AF as we use it today for stills ... Way to unpredictable

Exactly, however it has attributes that can be used but needs to be controllable. First it can rangefind - so the system would need to track the ranges of the various subjects in the frame that needed to be focussed at sometime in the shot. Then it can make planned transitions from subject to subject, on the command of the operator. Set up a system properly, and it could make what is currently done much more simple (and save a person from the camera crew) - in addition it might do things that are quite difficult currently, like maintaining focus on a subject and trasitioning to another while the camera moves. It needs a mindset change from 'this is autofocus' to 'this is a focus management system'.

And back to what Nikon could do ... I think high end broadcasting and cinema is rather areas where Nikon could and should do what they have done for say large format photography - make lenses and possible other parts and products they have expertise in, but leave the heavy investments to those already entrenched in that business.

Probably true - though the other is look for niches, like for instance the 24MP video camera - could be the new IMAX.

Nikon can and never should ignore video - it is going to be an integral part of any consumer imaging device (being a P&S, DSLR, mirrorless or whatever comes next) and also in most pro and enthusiast still cameras. But I doubt they will ever enter the pro video/cinema world for much the same reason I doubt Pentax, Oly, Samsung or Panasonic will ever enter the pro still photo world - pro markets are inherently conservative (much due to the heavy investments in accessories). This is why Canon and Nikon will be so hard to dislodge from the pro still market, and this is why companies like Sony, Arri, Panasonic and others will be hard to dislodge from the pro video/cinema market. Red has managed to squeeze in as a newcomer, but that was because they seem to have realised the potential of digital imaging before some of the major players. And that ship has by now sailed.

I don't disagree at all, although I think the conservatism of the traditional players might open up niche opportunities.
--
Bob

 

[Grevture]

Nikon can and never should ignore video - it is going to be an integral part of any consumer imaging device (being a P&S, DSLR, mirrorless or whatever comes next) and also in most pro and enthusiast still cameras.

No surprises there, they've said so themselves:

"Nikon regards video as a function that is of more use to users of lower-end cameras, but ultimately will be a standard function across Nikons entire DSLR range."

I am not saying you are wrong, but there is a funny sidenote to this. Appearently also Canon and Panasonic had similar trains of thought as Nikon when they first introduced DSLR video (or mirrorless in Panasoics case): "a fun thing and mostly something for consumers to play with".

I have spoken to several Nikon reps (like the sales manager of Nikon Nordic), I have spoken to Panasonic people (mostly sales people), and with several Canon people (like Mike Owen of Canon Europe) and they all basically said the same thing, if I round it up it could be something like

" we thought we introduced a nice little consumer gimmick, but we got a overwhelming response from the pro/enthusiast world which we had not at all anticipated "

I think it was Mike Owen at Canon who said that the moment he fully realised that the market reacted to this differently then they had anticipated was when a large ad agency placed an order of 10 Eos 5D Mk2 - and asked Canon if they could deliver them without mirrors ...

It seem all the manufacturers (including Sony) never realized until after the fact that what they had initially introduced was much more alluring to pro and enthusiast videographers then to consumers (who very often rather prefer AF and large DOF in video).

Hence the firmware upgrade of the Eos 5D, hence the hacked Pana GH1 and the much upgraded GH2 and so on. They quickly had to react, reorganoze and try to meet a demand they had not really seen in advance. The sales manager of Nikon Nordic even admitted that in hindsight, they would probably have been better of putting video in the D700 first rather then in the D90.

Contrary to popular belief, I generally think the sales departments of the camera manufacturers have a rather good picture of what their markets look like and want. DSLR video is one exception to that, here they clearly missed who was the main audience.

Now I think this is slowly changing - the video functionality of the Nikon 1 series is probably a lot more what they originally had in mind when they introduced in the D90 - an easy to use added functionality of a consumer camera.

--
-----------------------------------------------------------
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every moment of it!

By the way, film is not dead.
It just smell funny

 

[Steve Bingham]

A doubling of the current D7000 sensor is VERY possible - as is 1080p at 24 and 30.

This tells me we might well have to wait until next Summer for that new DX lens and D800.

Sorry, I don't believe it, where's the proof, especially the part about 36 MP and 1080 HD in FX, not possible, not even logical. The D800 will never appear in that form, and I highly doubt there ever will be a camera called the D800, or that there ever was one.

Time will tell but it's a funny position, I can say, "see it isn't here, it's never coming" and you can say "see, it's just delayed, it's coming soon." However, after a certain amount of time, and or when another FX comes first, I will be proven right.

But ultimately, it's just like every other post about a coming new FX from Nikon over the last 2 1/2 years, all of those predictions have been wrong... time will tell, won't it? To me, it already has told. What's it going to take for you, 6 more months, a year, two years?

Sure, the floods have an effect, but that's not the only or the main reason why it's not here, but I get tired of repeating myself as to why it's not here now, so I won't do it again.

--
Steve Bingham
http://www.dustylens.com
http://www.ghost-town-photography.com

 

[David Lawson]

Judging from the news coming out of Fukushima, Japan is in a worse mess

ENENEWS dot COM keeps updated reports on what is happening. It's terribly under reported in the UK as were on a euro crises agenda.
david

 

[M Lammerse]

David,

Production is already continue for months at the production locations in Sendai.

What I have understood is that what is the most hit, are all the parts suppliers to Nikon in that region.

Michel

Judging from the news coming out of Fukushima, Japan is in a worse mess

ENENEWS dot COM keeps updated reports on what is happening. It's terribly under reported in the UK as were on a euro crises agenda.
david

--
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Light is Everything
http://www.fotopropaganda.com
http://www.flickr.com/photos/9240992@N05/ (my pixel mess on flikr)
http://www.pbase.com/photopropaganda

 

[M Lammerse]

Hi Bob,

Indeed, and I think that Nikon will come up with the follow up of the D3S, around the time the Canon is ready to be on sale

There seem to be many Nikon promotion events being postponed, to later notice.

And in January large wholesale and retailers are doing there yearly stock inventarisation and planning, might be we will see something new around that time, an announcement with release dates.

Michel

On the other hand, there is no point announcing products when you can't satisfy the demand. Now canon has revealed its hand, there is no hurry so far as the D4 is concerned. The D800 is another matter, but if it has the rumoured spec, I don't think anything that Canon might announce is a problem either.

--
Bob

--
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Light is Everything
http://www.fotopropaganda.com
http://www.flickr.com/photos/9240992@N05/ (my pixel mess on flikr)
http://www.pbase.com/photopropaganda

 

[David Lawson]

I was thinking wider than camera production. I think Fukushima could end up leaving a legacy that is hard, if not impossible, to live with.
I am taking heart in the visit of H.H. The Dalai Lama to talk to the survivers
david

 

[myshkin]

I know its a forum and I don't care if you don't believe me.

The problem is not with making new stuff. Yes they just released 2 DX bodies that are in heavy demand, and rightnow they can't produce to keep up with demand. These 2 DX bodies are their bread and butter so if they can't keep up with the demand of these bodies nothing new is coming anytime soon
--
Photos - http://roadslesstraveled.smugmug.com/Portfolio/On-The-Road/

 

[JimPearce]

Steve Bingham wrote:

"That's true, Jim. I have no doubt about Nikon. I just feel sad for the 500 people that have died and the thousands that are homeless. Nikon will be back, just slower than many of us would like."

Both nature and the world economy have been less than cooperative. As facile as I am, I would like a little of the excitement many of us got from the D3/D300 introduction. On the other hand I can't say that I don't enjoy the suspense.
--
Jim

 

[bob clearlight]

Michel, you give good information, good perspecive and alway with a positive outlook.
I enjoy reading your posts very much.
Thank you for keeping it light in this forum.

--
A Kodak Brownie can produce a great image in the right hands.

 

[rayman 2]

Michel, you give good information, good perspecive and alway with a positive outlook.
I enjoy reading your posts very much.
Thank you for keeping it light in this forum.

--
A Kodak Brownie can produce a great image in the right hands.

I do too !
But michel cant predict things not even Nikon can predict
like earthquakes and floodings and other natural
disaters.....
Nikon has postponed a lot of things without telling when they would be finished
Nikon lost about 6 months.......
Peter

 

[michaeladawson]

I know its a forum and I don't care if you don't believe me.

You ought to. You do realize that ScottMac was specifically referring to the letter calling out the D800 by name. All of your responses have left room for interpretation that the letter actually contained specific mention of a D800 model. No one on this forum believes that.

Why don't you just clarify your posts by making it clear that there was no specific mention of a D800 model?
--
Mike Dawson

 

[M Lammerse]

Hi David,

I was meaning wider than camera production. To restore the economy (and I'm not meaning in the danger zone area of the nuclear power plant) is essential for the area to survive, Nikon is only a tiny part of it.

I will visit the area again, this coming March, 1 year after the tragedy.
Michel

I was thinking wider than camera production. I think Fukushima could end up leaving a legacy that is hard, if not impossible, to live with.
I am taking heart in the visit of H.H. The Dalai Lama to talk to the survivers
david

--
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Light is Everything
http://www.fotopropaganda.com
http://www.flickr.com/photos/9240992@N05/ (my pixel mess on flikr)
http://www.pbase.com/photopropaganda

 

[M Lammerse]

Hi Peter,

I happily can't predict things, but I can expect things and I hear and read a lot of things .

Nikon lost time, but seeing what happened to Japan in general and specifically Nikons' main production facilities in Sendai, I'm not surprised at all.

And knowing what kind of efforts they make now to catch up the loss of the floodings in Thailand, I know for sure they do everything they can to continue their launch plans.

Michel

A Kodak Brownie can produce a great image in the right hands.

I do too !
But michel cant predict things not even Nikon can predict
like earthquakes and floodings and other natural
disaters.....
Nikon has postponed a lot of things without telling when they would be finished
Nikon lost about 6 months.......
Peter

--
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Light is Everything
http://www.fotopropaganda.com
http://www.flickr.com/photos/9240992@N05/ (my pixel mess on flikr)
http://www.pbase.com/photopropaganda

 

[eNo]

This is certainly a huge financial setback for Nikon.

They will be insured.

Against lost/damaged equipment? Sure. Against lost sales? Partially at best. Against lost market share due to lost/postponed sales? Don't bank on it. Insurance is of limited value when time-to-market and competitive forces are at work.

And for the inevitable "you guys should be more concerned about the human tragedy!" comment, all those losses boil down to the economic damage that happens to those whose livelihoods Nikon production directly or indirectly impacts.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Seeking the heart and spirit in each image



Gallery and blog: http://imagesbyeduardo.com
Flickr stream: http://www.flickr.com/photos/22061657@N03

 

[James Van Artsdalen]

There's probably a chapter in every business school textbook in Japan titled "How to prepare for, manage, and recover from major natural disasters". Their entire history makes it a point of importance.

This is certainly a huge financial setback for Nikon. Inexpensive labor is one thing but building your plant in a flood zone is quite another.

The maps they used may have been optimistic. Official flood-plain maps often are since landowners usually try to convince the government to not list their land as flood-prone.

Nikon may even rebuild in the very same spot if the Thai government builds effective flood-control measures.

 

[bobn2]

This is certainly a huge financial setback for Nikon.

They will be insured.

Against lost/damaged equipment? Sure. Against lost sales? Partially at best.

Most likely against wages they'll pay while workers are non-productive

Against lost market share due to lost/postponed sales? Don't bank on it. Insurance is of limited value when time-to-market and competitive forces are at work.

Sure, but the loss of market share is by no means inevitable. In fact, these events can turn out to have silver linings. Exhaust the inventory of old model stock and provide a solid paunch demand for the new model.

And for the inevitable "you guys should be more concerned about the human tragedy!" comment, all those losses boil down to the economic damage that happens to those whose livelihoods Nikon production directly or indirectly impacts.

I agree with that, what people need to recover is economic activity.
--
Bob

 

[rgolub]

If Nikon can ship D800 and perhaps D4 close to March 2012 they will prevent people from jumping ship and buying Canon's new 1D X due out in March. They will miss pro's trying to buy new bodies by the end of the fiscal year for the tax write off.

Do you really think there is a significant number of photographers that wander back and forth between brands when their current camera isn't refreshed often enough? Really?

Now, the manufacturers and dealers would just love customers like this, but I think it pretty much a fantasy. It's a whole lot easier to stamp and pout on an Internet forum than to plunk down the cash to get a new body (and lenses and flashes and whatnot).

The pros I know don't buy bodies for the write off. They buy them when they need them.
--
RG
http://www.lostrange.com