You're WAY off...
First, the large sensor camcorder already exists. The Panasonic AF100 is shipping and is under $5,000. The F3 looks like a decent camcorder, but is $16,000.
Second, Sony already makes a $2,000 removable lens, large imager camcorder (NEX-VG10) and it's generally regarded as a consumer toy. It takes a decent image, but it's fairly large and the audio is a joke. It doesn't even have XLR inputs for audio! It's generally considered a failure. It's too big and too single function for amateurs, and woefully inadequate for pros.
Third, there will always be a market for hybrid cameras like the GH2 because it meets the needs for many people (including me) MUCH better than a larger, single purpose camcorder. I do NOT want to carry a big single-purpose camcorder. I want one cam that does it all.
Fourth, Pros want large imager camcorder with XLR audio inputs and and lots of large, usable controls. And they want large batteries. And require the ability to use standard PL mount video lenses. To meet those needs will mean that the camera will be large, heavy, and more expensive. Few amateurs will buy that camera.
Regarding image quality, the GH2 already has video image quality that meets or exceeds that of many video cameras already. The Panasonic AF100 already exists and have video image quality that is somewhat better (but not excessively better) than the GH2. However the AF100 has the other, pro-level features that GH2 lacks. That's why the Pros buy it.
What WILL happen is that "video" cameras will generally fall into these camps:
- Video-only, small imager cameras that are very easy to use for the casual user. Think mom and pop who shoot birthday parties and soccer matches. OTOH, that market will get smaller and smaller as the large and small imager combo cams grab market share.
- Pocket small imager P&S combo-cams that shoot stills and video for the casual user who wants ease of use.
- Large imager combo-cams like the GH2 which shoot stills and video for the advanced amateur who want flexibility and small indie videographers who can't afford anything more expensive. This is a sub $1,000 (not $2,000) market.
- large imager video cameras for Pros with all the bells and whistles that pro's demand. They may drop as low as $2,000, but they'll never impact the combo-cam or other markets.
And if you want do demonstrate the superiority of these large imager, pro-level cameras, I suggest you reference the AF100 which is MUCH closer to your target cost. Here's the AF100 Vimeo channel:
http://vimeo.com/channels/af100 . Check out the quality. For a MUCH better comparison with the 5D2, here's a video that was shot with the 5D2 and the AF100 side by side:
http://vimeo.com/16007277 . That will give you a much better sense of the issues than someone whipping a camera around for a few seconds. Also, check out this GH2 video to get a sense of the video quality:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gof74TSBbK8 . Not bad for a sub $1,000 camera.
In summary...
You're right that the AF100 and similar cams will displace traditional OVF DSLRs like the 5D2 in the Pro market. At the lower level pro market, the GH2 is already displacing some OVF DSLRs. OTOH, the AF100 and it's future competitors will never touch amateur markets.
Regards,
Dan.
Once larger sensor camcorders become cheaper (under $2000), that would be the end of hybrids (for video) since DSLR sensors are optimized for stills. They could never compete with the video quality of large sensor camcorders.
5D Mark II vs F3
http://vimeo.com/18331935
thoughts?