2009 speculation

[mike_2008]

While remaining somewhat disillusioned with high iso performance from sony's dslr range the fact remains that for me the a350 and sal18250 does a fine job for most of what I'm doing. I've therefore held off going headlong into canon 5d land, because (a) prices are still quite high (b) aps-c has a lot of advantages (c) it's prehistoric tech.

An A350 with better high iso and perhaps a more refined interface would be good; sounds like an A700, I know. They're selling for just over 500 quid in the UK. But march is just around the corner and who knows what sony will reveal at pma...

So I wait and continue to enjoy the A350+sal18250. Will potentially upgrade to an updated A700 with better sensor performance if one comes out at PMA.

Any other thoughts out there?

--
http://mike2008.smugmug.com

 

[Alexramos]

What do you thing about a "a700" with a350 sensor??

 

[Danel]

A200 gets discontinued and A300 becomes the bottom of the line with yet another price drop. A350 drops another few bucks.

In the spring:

New A500 come out just under a $1000 based on an improved version of the A700 12MP sensor. New A500 has live view based on A300/A350 model, but Sony manages to give the A500 a better optical view finder than A300/350. A500 also has a movie mode with auto focus enabled. High ISO is slightly better than A700 and camera shoots 4.5 frames per second.

A700 gets replaced with A710. The A710 has a new APS-C sensor with 16MP, live view LCD based on A300/350 model, movie mode with auto focus enabled, yet maintains the same size optical view finder of the current A700. A710 shoots 6 frames per second and has high ISO performance slightly better than A700 with V4 software due to improved sensor micro lenses, improved in camera processing, etc. Body build quality is the same as A700 with minor interface changes.

In the fall:

Sony announces A800, a full frame, $1999 body based on the A710 body with modifications and the A900 sensor.

I know all of this because my sister's husband's niece has a friend of a friend who knows the daughter of the cleaning lady who works for the uncle of the brother of the team leader on Sony's DSLR development team. So its practically from the horse's mouth, right?

 

[mike_2008]

I'd really be looking for something which improves the high iso, not juts a better interface/ovf... On the whole I find the ovf of the a350 perfectly usable.

What do you thing about a "a700" with a350 sensor??

--
http://mike2008.smugmug.com

 

[Ken_5D]

New A710 Model 95%
16MP for the new A700 50%

(I think Sony just saw Canon fall from grace on IQ with the 50D, So they had better not trade MP for IQ.. or I will be sticking with the A700. 14 MP with back lit sensor for 8MP ISO performance would be good.

A710 with live view 65%

A710 with Micro adjust and live preview 80%

A800 16MP FF for $2000 40%

A360 with video 60%

A310 with video 40%

5 new lenses...haven't taken time to define what they will be..one will be a $999 70-200 F2.8 based on Tamron design.

---------
Ken - A700 Owner..
Some of my work at:
http://gallery.cascadephotoworks.com

 

[cgarrard]

interesting observations/guesses Danel. Very ... interesting.
--
AlphaMountWorld
CarlGarrardPhotography

 

[Kiril Karaatanasov]

New camera line without mirror - 70% (like panasonic G1)

some form of backwards compatibility to Alpha lenses of the new line - 50% ( I would like to say 100% but)

the new line will use phase detect AF - 40%

the new line will support Full HD movies with AF support - 95%

the new line will be released with 24-120mm equivalent CZ lens - 60%

the new line will use APS-C CMOS sensor - 60%

Do I care for noise above ISO 800 - NO

As for DSLR I would suppose A700 replacement mid to late next year - 80%

A700 mkII - full frame - 10%

A700 mkII more than 12 MP - 80%

A700 mkII more than 14 MP - 40%

A700 mkII more than 18 MP - 10%

A700 mkII with AF micro adjust - 70%

New lower end models - 50% depends how bad the sales in Q1 & Q2 are.

Overall I think there will be slow down in DSLR sales, hence less new cameras will be released.

I would also expect new business models to be developed by digital camera makers.

New A710 Model 95%
16MP for the new A700 50%
(I think Sony just saw Canon fall from grace on IQ with the 50D, So
they had better not trade MP for IQ.. or I will be sticking with the
A700. 14 MP with back lit sensor for 8MP ISO performance would be
good.

A710 with live view 65%

A710 with Micro adjust and live preview 80%

A800 16MP FF for $2000 40%

A360 with video 60%

A310 with video 40%

5 new lenses...haven't taken time to define what they will be..one
will be a $999 70-200 F2.8 based on Tamron design.

---------
Ken - A700 Owner..
Some of my work at:
http://gallery.cascadephotoworks.com

 

[Kiril Karaatanasov]

I forgot one - Sony R2 - 40%

 

[Phixel]

A200 gets discontinued and A300 becomes the bottom of the line with
yet another price drop. A350 drops another few bucks.

I agree, very likely.

New A500 come out just under a $1000 based on an improved version of
the A700 12MP sensor. New A500 has live view based on A300/A350
model, but Sony manages to give the A500 a better optical view finder
than A300/350. A500 also has a movie mode with auto focus enabled.
High ISO is slightly better than A700 and camera shoots 4.5 frames
per second.

This sounds very plausible, except it will be named the A600.

A700 gets replaced with A710. The A710 has a new APS-C sensor with
16MP, live view LCD based on A300/350 model,

I Hope not! 16MP and no penta-prism is a deal killer for me! Might have to go to Nikon then.

movie mode

I hope not!

In the fall:
Sony announces A800, a full frame, $1999 body based on the A710 body
with modifications and the A900 sensor.

Again very plausible, but without a penta-prism it won't be received well.

I know all of this because my sister's husband's niece has a friend
of a friend who knows the daughter of the cleaning lady who works for
the uncle of the brother of the team leader on Sony's DSLR
development team. So its practically from the horse's mouth, right?

Your source seems far-fetched, but possible. LOL!

My prediction:

No matter what Sony introduces in 2009, it will be very telling as to their direction in DSLRs and may push me, and other more capable amateurs into another brand. I don't like the way Canon is going with the 50D and Sony may follow them down this wrong path also, unfortunately.

--Phil

 

[tweedle]

What do you thing about a "a700" with a350 sensor??

Personally I can't see Sony releasing a A700-successor with a CCD.

My guess is a 14-15MP CMOS sensor.

 

[elty12345]

Guess:

The A300/350 successor will get a bunch of consumer-oriented features such as face detection, movie mode, more scene mode, touch screen and so on. The goal is to make the camera as consumer friendly as possible while retain the full feature set of a DSLR. There will be some other enhancement, but most current users will have no compulsion to upgrade.

There will be a Sony version of the 50/1.7.

Some company will announce a flash that looks like the SB400.

 

[ck3]

I guess 2009 will see the model updates that can be expected if one assumes a 18 month life cycle (A700 successor (no idea what they will change apart from a higher MP sensor, of which I'm sure) due for PMA and later in the year the successors for the entry-level models).

Though I doubt these upgrades will interest me much since I'm perfectly happy with my A700 (I doubt the next release circle will introduce major sensor technology revisions, which might be tempting...)

What I'm HOPING for is the introduction of a smaller, pocketable EVIL model with a new lens mount (otherwise it won't really be smaller ;-) and the option to use A-Mount lenses with an adapter. That would be a welcome addition to the line-up.

Oh yeah, and at least a small 35mm prime lens for that new camera (assuming they use an APS-C sensor) - then I'll be perfectly happy.

 

[cgarrard]

This:

The A300/350 successor will get a bunch of consumer-oriented features such as face detection, movie mode, more scene mode, touch screen and so on. The goal is to make the camera as consumer friendly as possible while retain the full feature set of a DSLR. There will be some other enhancement, but most current users will have no compulsion to upgrade.

Sounds like Sony.
--
AlphaMountWorld
CarlGarrardPhotography

 

[Alexramos]

My prediction...

a700 sustitute "a750" (80%)
-CMOS 14MPx APS-C
-ISO 100-12,800
-Body sealed and AF system like a900
-Flash pup-up
-OVF 100% and 0.9X
-6fps
-LV (with second sensor) and video
-micro AF adjustmen
-LCD 3" HD tilting
PRICE: $1,200.00

a200 and a300 sustitute "a400" (90%)
-CMOS 12MPx APS-C (the same a700 sensor)
-ISO 100-6400
-Body similar to a200/a300 (with a little redesign)
-Flash pop-up like a100
-OVF with pentamirror 95% and 0.9X
-3.5fps
-LV (with second sensor) and video
-LCD 2.7" tilting
PRICE: $600.00

a350 sustitute "a500" (50%)
-a700 body with a350 CCD 14MPx sensor
-ISO 50-3200
-LV (with second sensor) and video
-4.5fps
-micro AF adjustment
-LCD 3" HD tilting
PRICE: $900.00

 

[foot]

My prediction:
No matter what Sony introduces in 2009, it will be very telling as to
their direction in DSLRs and may push me, and other more capable
amateurs into another brand. I don't like the way Canon is going with
the 50D and Sony may follow them down this wrong path also,
unfortunately.

i feel the same way. I'm still chugging along with my minolta 5D/7D and haven't seen an upgrade from sony i'm interested in...possibly the v4 A700, if there were more data on it such as in DxOMark. Also the price needs to be cheaper

i think the D90 has set a new competitive bar in it's class. Nikon seems to know what it's doing. Canon is screwing up big-time losing it's famous high-iso advantage. The 50D seems like a big step backward.

 

[Barry Fitzgerald]

A200 gets discontinued and A300 becomes the bottom of the line with
yet another price drop. A350 drops another few bucks.

I agree, very likely.

Unlikely IMO..super budget OVF is the way to go ;-) Don't see a place for 2 LV models with different megapixel no.s

New A500 come out just under a $1000 based on an improved version of
the A700 12MP sensor. New A500 has live view based on A300/A350
model, but Sony manages to give the A500 a better optical view finder
than A300/350. A500 also has a movie mode with auto focus enabled.
High ISO is slightly better than A700 and camera shoots 4.5 frames
per second.

This sounds very plausible, except it will be named the A600.

Agree...reasonable..

A700 gets replaced with A710. The A710 has a new APS-C sensor with
16MP, live view LCD based on A300/350 model,

I Hope not! 16MP and no penta-prism is a deal killer for me! Might
have to go to Nikon then.

I think the new A700 must have a penta prism..no question..

movie mode

I hope not!

Don't care much myself..so long as they dont stuff up the handling!

In the fall:
Sony announces A800, a full frame, $1999 body based on the A710 body
with modifications and the A900 sensor.

Again very plausible, but without a penta-prism it won't be received
well.

Yup for that price, penta mirror is not acceptable..now, if they did a so called budget FF... at a sweet price..yes it is, we can dream though ;-)

My prediction:
No matter what Sony introduces in 2009, it will be very telling as to
their direction in DSLRs and may push me, and other more capable
amateurs into another brand. I don't like the way Canon is going with
the 50D and Sony may follow them down this wrong path also,
unfortunately.

It's a dead cert you will get more mp..Canon made sure of that one

The only thing that would tempt me to abandon Sony, is wholescale dumping of OVF's in favour of EVF's

Bye bye! But it won't likely happen