Does KM have a future?

[toughluck]

Do you actually think that the hot 20 here on dpreview is actually representative of quantity sold/profit made on these cameras??? If that were true, then it would mean that even Nikon could very well decide on backing away from the market, Sony was a distant third, Panasonic an even further fourth, and everyone else have folded business.

Also that Canon are so far in front that economies of scale (the, already mentioned here, statement that is relevant to some parts of the electronics market*, and completely irrelevant to photography) would dictate that no other brand could even think of trying to compete for any profit and should fold business in one year, or try dumping until either throwing everyone else away, or bankruptcy.

) Economies of scale: in relevance to electronics, this means that you can lower profits on one of the two conditions:
-- improvement of the process of manufacturing;
-- reduction of the amount of materials.

Except in very few cases, the increase of production does not yield any savings. The very few cases are when you are comparing the costs of producing one element of one, two, five, ten, up to a hundred. Then the cost falls down very slowly.

And you cannot use lower amount of materials -- if you set the standard of the amount of silicon you use, you cannot go below it (sensor size!!!). You can lower the costs of manufacturing, by going from CCD to CMOS, upsizing circuitry to improve yield, but that's it. Sensors are not CPUs. You can't reduce their size. You can't increase the number of transistors per area unit to improve performance. You can't do anything in what is called the 'economies of scale' of CPUs (economies of scale is a gross misnomer in this regard!).

Very interesting and sensitive question, Mark

Maybe you are right, But I don't see things in that way

I collect information and using statistatic to tell the
problem/future of KM
some figures in this website shows most likely trend or way what KM
will be
1. Most popular 20 cameras in recent 5 days
There is no KM camera in hot 20 camera for a long time.
2. Click counts of the each Brand
KM now is number 7 or 8 and falling

Also I don't think profit will simply come from a series cameras or
lens
so It is just not fair to judge KM that way.
Profit will come from their reputation and customer service
capability.
as you can read mostly from this website KM create quality issues and
problems but could not solve it entirely or totally.

Personally, I thought that reputation is most vital part and KM
just could not
make it better than yesterday's KM.

Cheers

--
I like Minolta but I hate Konica 7D collections
http://imgfun.com/phpwind/thread.php?fid=7

 

[dgar47]

Although I am not a market analyst it also quite clear that you are
not as well. You are right Sigma did not produce film & were late
into digital SLRs & yes they are no-where!

Sigma produced several AF film SLRs, the SA series. The Kodak 14n
(etc) was based on them. Having Kodak get Sigma to produce their
cameras is no minor feat. The end results may not have been
wonderful but Sigma are still a big threat, especially if 4/3rds
takes off and Sigma dives in. I'm waiting for a Foveon 4/3rds chip
to really make things interesting.

Just think what would have happened if sigma had made thier bodies Film and Digital with C,N,&M lens mounts instead of creating thier on proprietary mount. With the sales they could have generated early on with the other mounts there's no telling how far they could have advanced fovian by now. How many would have waited 2 more years for the 7d had sigma produced bodies with minolta lens mounts in '02.
Thank you sigma.

--
David (if the boats rockin-then the wind 's blowin'!)

 

[suensiu]

I don't think it is realistic to expect KM to release the so-called 5D "in time" to match the 350D/XT. Consider camera makers of similar statures, Olympus and Pentax. The gap between Olympus' E1 and E300 is two years, while between Pentax's istD and istDS is 1.5 years. So getting the 5D out of the door by this fall would be quite an accomplishment already- that would make one year between the 7D and the 5D.

Besides, the 7D proves to be rather more difficult for KM to build, judging from KM's struggles in focus and flash issues. Does KM have the production capacity now to take on another model while fixing all the 7D issues? To hit the 5D price point, KM probably would have to make it in China. Can they ramp up the technical capability of the China factory quick enough?

As for "dumbing" down the interface, etc, for 5D it is almost inevitable. Take the film SLR as an analogy. The film 7 is pretty much a paradigm in camera interface design. In comparison the 5 is nothing- only one dial wheel, one small LCD screen, and you cannot change most controls without putting down your 5. Does this make the 5 a bad camera? No, it is actually the best in class! I don't expect 5D to come close to the 7D's interface. If you insist on the classic Minolta experience, staying with the 7D or moving up to (finger crossed) the future upscale 8/9 series would be better bet, IMHO.

I am also wary that SSM roll-out has been extremely slow, and KM continues to drop G lenses from their roster. On the other hand, I believe that KM would kill/sell off their camera business if the 7D failed. With an uncertain future, I would have held off new lens product development if I were running KM. This might also explain partially why KM goes to Tamron for the current crop of new lenses. But things may be getting better. For example, the 7D sells well, much better than KM's expectation. I have also seen interest in the expensive 70-200 SSM pick up significantly. These factors seem to point to a healthier market for higher end KM lenses- which carry higher added values, something KM is after.

So, please enjoy your 7D. I probably will pull the tirgger myself in a couple of months. Buy a new lens or two if you can to give KM the signal that there is a market to exploit. Hack, I have even bought a 28-75 D and 5600HS for my lowly Maxxum 5!

suensiu

I do not want to irritate anyone but after having my 7D for four
months, I started to worry about KM based on the following reasons

1. KM fails to release an entry level DSLR in time and the
apperance of 350D makes this even more remote

2. KM fails to project a future upgrade for current Minolta AF
lenses. There is no new lenses with SSM inplementation and there is
no plan for current G lenses.

--
Mark K
7d and 7

 

[Ron Cione]

Well said Jose,

I was one of the reluctant ones in November to take the plunge. Folks like you gave me the encouragement to bite the bullet and I did and haven't looked back. I have used my 7D exclusively and sad to say my 2 9Xi's sit on the shelf. Some of us worry too much and can't "see the forest through the trees". Proud and happy to shoot minolta as I have for the last 30 plus years.
Regards,
Ron

I strongly believe that KM is here to stay. I've always said that
they will parlay their much-vaunted film SLR lineup to the digital
space and will start wth a digital 7. You have to give them some
time to launch other products like an entry-level DSLR and of
course the 9D.

As for me, again in tennis terms, 'I am seeing the ball well with
the 7D', or in hoops-land, that 'rim is looking big as an ocean'.
In this month's Shutterbug issue, one article talked about 'being
in the zone' in your photography and I am there right now with my
7D!

Cheers,

José

I do not want to irritate anyone but after having my 7D for four
months, I started to worry about KM based on the following reasons

1. KM fails to release an entry level DSLR in time and the
apperance of 350D makes this even more remote

2. KM fails to project a future upgrade for current Minolta AF
lenses. There is no new lenses with SSM inplementation and there is
no plan for current G lenses.

--
Mark K
7d and 7

--
http://www.pbase.com/jmb_56/maxxum_7d
A very exuberant Konica Minolta Maxxum 7D trailblazer. Who's
zooming who: Sigma 12-24/4.5-5.6 EX, Maxxum 28-75/2.8 and Sigma
70-200/2.8 EX

 

[imgfun]

Do you actually think that the hot 20 here on dpreview is actually
representative of quantity sold/profit made on these cameras??? If
that were true, then it would mean that even Nikon could very well
decide on backing away from the market, Sony was a distant third,

Hi, Toughluck
You just got me wrong again !

The figures show public interest in some products and in Dpreview it means digital camera related. Maybe it is not so accurate but also a kind of important reference at the moment for you and me to understand what people want. It quite easy to reliaze. does it ?

Cheers

--
I like Minolta but I hate Konica 7D collections
http://imgfun.com/phpwind/thread.php?fid=7

 

[chiggers]

correction the 12-24 is a pentax original desing, just like all their other digital lenses.

see http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1036&message=12704651

I do not want to irritate anyone but after having my 7D for four
months, I started to worry about KM based on the following reasons

1. KM fails to release an entry level DSLR in time and the
apperance of 350D makes this even more remote

2. KM fails to project a future upgrade for current Minolta AF
lenses. There is no new lenses with SSM inplementation and there is
no plan for current G lenses.

--
Mark K
7d and 7

 

[Mark K]

Suensiu
you sounded even more depressive

Besides, the 7D proves to be rather more difficult for KM to build,
judging from KM's struggles in focus and flash issues. Does KM have
the production capacity now to take on another model while fixing
all the 7D issues? To hit the 5D price point, KM probably would
have to make it in China. Can they ramp up the technical capability
of the China factory quick enough?

As for "dumbing" down the interface, etc, for 5D it is almost
inevitable. Take the film SLR as an analogy. The film 7 is pretty
much a paradigm in camera interface design. In comparison the 5 is
nothing- only one dial wheel, one small LCD screen, and you cannot
change most controls without putting down your 5. Does this make
the 5 a bad camera? No, it is actually the best in class! I don't
expect 5D to come close to the 7D's interface. If you insist on the
classic Minolta experience, staying with the 7D or moving up to
(finger crossed) the future upscale 8/9 series would be better bet,
IMHO.

I am also wary that SSM roll-out has been extremely slow, and KM
continues to drop G lenses from their roster. On the other hand, I
believe that KM would kill/sell off their camera business if the 7D
failed. With an uncertain future, I would have held off new lens
product development if I were running KM. This might also explain
partially why KM goes to Tamron for the current crop of new lenses.
But things may be getting better. For example, the 7D sells well,
much better than KM's expectation. I have also seen interest in the
expensive 70-200 SSM pick up significantly. These factors seem to
point to a healthier market for higher end KM lenses- which carry
higher added values, something KM is after.

So, please enjoy your 7D. I probably will pull the tirgger myself
in a couple of months. Buy a new lens or two if you can to give KM
the signal that there is a market to exploit. Hack, I have even
bought a 28-75 D and 5600HS for my lowly Maxxum 5!

suensiu

I do not want to irritate anyone but after having my 7D for four
months, I started to worry about KM based on the following reasons

1. KM fails to release an entry level DSLR in time and the
apperance of 350D makes this even more remote

2. KM fails to project a future upgrade for current Minolta AF
lenses. There is no new lenses with SSM inplementation and there is
no plan for current G lenses.

--
Mark K
7d and 7

--
Mark K
7d and 7

 

[River Side]

about the success of a line of DSLR's till they have at least two cycles of a product..

Minolta 7D is the ONLY DSLR for those sitting on Minolta glass.. sure it had to sell .. pretty much like the D70 did for those sitting on Nikkors wanting a $1000 DSLR..

It'd be interesting to see how another Minolta DSLR fares now that the initial Minolta glass owners have made their purchase.. things don't look great as i haven't seen another camera go so early into mail in rebates in it's lifecycle..

I do not want to irritate anyone but after having my 7D for four
months, I started to worry about KM based on the following reasons

1. KM fails to release an entry level DSLR in time and the
apperance of 350D makes this even more remote

2. KM fails to project a future upgrade for current Minolta AF
lenses. There is no new lenses with SSM inplementation and there is
no plan for current G lenses.

--
Mark K
7d and 7

--
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
3 0 0 D + 1 8 - 5 5 m m
5 0 m m f / 1 . 4 U S M
7 5 - 3 0 0 m m U S M I S

* * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

[larsbc]

Some of you guys worry a lot about things you cannot control. Does
Roger Federer think about Wilson's financial statements before he
rips that backhand or does Andy Roddick concern himself with the
ROE of Babolat before he launches a 135mph serve?

José, I don't think your analogy works. For starters, buying a DSLR generally means buying into a camera system. That is certainly not the same as buying a tennis racquet. Also, most of us here in this forum are amateur photographers. We don't make money with our camera gear so we can't offset our costs by the earnings made with our equipment.

In any case, this is about worrying about something that we CAN control.

I haven't yet bought a DSLR and so the camera I choose IS within my control. And worrying about KM's future is going to influence my decision. This latest information is just another item in a litany of concerns I have with KM's DSLRs such as: backfocusing problems (seems to be even more prevalent than other cameras such as the D70); misaligned sensors; flash unit re-calibration requirements; and repeated warranty repairs to get the same problem fixed. Basically, KM's QA sounds really bad. The recent financial information makes their future sound even worse. Add to that the fact that they still don't have an entry-level camera. If nothing else, they should at least announce specs and a firm release date.

Anyone looking to get into a DSLR system really needs to consider whether KM will still be in the DSLR game three years from now. I want any further investment I make in new glass (even with my existing lenses, I'd still need new ones since I shoot mostly at the wide end, anyway) to be long-term. I don't want to end up with an orphaned system.

I strongly believe that KM is here to stay. I've always said that
they will parlay their much-vaunted film SLR lineup to the digital
space and will start wth a digital 7. You have to give them some
time to launch other products like an entry-level DSLR and of
course the 9D.

They've had plenty of time to R&D and produce the 7D. And even with all that time, there are rather serious (IMO) QA issues with it. They've also taken a step backwards in their wireless flash abilities, losing the ability to do wireless ratio flash while Canon and Nikon both make entry-level cameras capable of this function.

Larry

 

[JCDoss]

There is no such thing a brand loyalty!

I can't believe you said this! LOL!!!

If KM is guilty of anything it is that they don't tip their hand to
their competitors (and therefore their customers!) because they
realize that to gain a foothold in the DSLR market they have to
CREATE THEIR OWN NICHE and not necessarily compete head-to-head
with eveyone else.

What was their niche before the 7D? To say they weren't competing head to head is an understatement indeed! They lost a lot of customers by doing this.

--
JCDoss

 

[suensiu]

Hm.... probably, I am a pretty pessimistic person anyway...

On the other hand, I try to be pragmatic, realistic. Looking at the bright side, KM does appear to be preapring a 5D- if you looking at the DT lens line-up, the 18-70 definitely says kit lens range to me (and many others). If the DT lens is to be available this fall, so should the 5D. Using Olympus and Pentax as benchmarks, that's very good indeed.

As for G/SSM lens, I can further develop my thought. One big reason why Canon does so well is that Canon sells the L lens like hot cakes. And the L lens carries a high profit margin. As I can see, the current KM regime understands the product side of marketing very well- they certainly would want to sell as many fat-margined G lenses as they could. We all understand that KM SLR's business would die pretty soon without a dSLR. Without a market, how can KM sell any more fat-margined G lenses? So the first order of business is to reestablish KM in the SLR/dSLR market. And they have done that with the 7D, stopping user defection as well as creating interest in the brand. The next complain the hear? Where is the wide-angle coverage for the APS-C format? So they make DT a higher priority. How about G/SSM? Perhaps toolings for lenses like the 300 F4G and 400 F4.5G are worn out, but replaceing toolings at this point would not make economic sense because you had to sell a certain number of lens just to recover the tooling cost, and KM was not certain they could do that. Same thing for the SSM update. So KM would be wise to establish a market position first before committing to the G/SSM updates. How about the 28-70G? It was probably not a big seller, it has always been complained about being slow in AF and long in min focus distance, and the 28-75 D is pretty close in optical quality already. So it makes sense for KM to drop it and then see if the market would accept another incarnation of the lens, with SSM, etc.

Successful marketing is crucial to a company. Just look at Canon- they even make a L super zoom just to keep customers' happy, even though most photographers don't care about such a lens. So KM is right to pay more attention to marketing. If they can execute other aspects better (quality, distribution, branding, etc.), KM will be a viable player in the dSLR world.

Remember the long ago annoucement that KM wanted to capture up to 30% of the dSLR market? Perhaps this is still in their agenda...

suensiu

Besides, the 7D proves to be rather more difficult for KM to build,
judging from KM's struggles in focus and flash issues. Does KM have
the production capacity now to take on another model while fixing
all the 7D issues? To hit the 5D price point, KM probably would
have to make it in China. Can they ramp up the technical capability
of the China factory quick enough?

As for "dumbing" down the interface, etc, for 5D it is almost
inevitable. Take the film SLR as an analogy. The film 7 is pretty
much a paradigm in camera interface design. In comparison the 5 is
nothing- only one dial wheel, one small LCD screen, and you cannot
change most controls without putting down your 5. Does this make
the 5 a bad camera? No, it is actually the best in class! I don't
expect 5D to come close to the 7D's interface. If you insist on the
classic Minolta experience, staying with the 7D or moving up to
(finger crossed) the future upscale 8/9 series would be better bet,
IMHO.

I am also wary that SSM roll-out has been extremely slow, and KM
continues to drop G lenses from their roster. On the other hand, I
believe that KM would kill/sell off their camera business if the 7D
failed. With an uncertain future, I would have held off new lens
product development if I were running KM. This might also explain
partially why KM goes to Tamron for the current crop of new lenses.
But things may be getting better. For example, the 7D sells well,
much better than KM's expectation. I have also seen interest in the
expensive 70-200 SSM pick up significantly. These factors seem to
point to a healthier market for higher end KM lenses- which carry
higher added values, something KM is after.

So, please enjoy your 7D. I probably will pull the tirgger myself
in a couple of months. Buy a new lens or two if you can to give KM
the signal that there is a market to exploit. Hack, I have even
bought a 28-75 D and 5600HS for my lowly Maxxum 5!

suensiu

I do not want to irritate anyone but after having my 7D for four
months, I started to worry about KM based on the following reasons

1. KM fails to release an entry level DSLR in time and the
apperance of 350D makes this even more remote

2. KM fails to project a future upgrade for current Minolta AF
lenses. There is no new lenses with SSM inplementation and there is
no plan for current G lenses.

--
Mark K
7d and 7

--
Mark K
7d and 7

 

[alex904]

Pentax has 2 DSLR's out and a medium format camera was just
announced. They have some very nice new lenses. Minolta is great
with their film stuff but a bit behind with digital. Their
financial probems are well known. I hope they can make it and
remain a viable company.

Dude, all companies in this market have "some financial problems" except for Canon and Sony and only because they managed to occupy low and middle end market where they're making profit. Besides, slashing proft forecasts does not mean that the company is struggling seriously.

Middle format DSLR is a good thing to announce, but what unique features you were referring to comparing it with Minolta? I can reaplce Minolta with Pentax in your last quotes sentense and it will make as much sense as your original one. Like "Pentax is great with their film stuff but a bit behind with digital".

Somebody needs to take more pics and pay much attention to technical buzz and rumors. Besides, if you want to speculate abour tech side and financial state of the market, please, get prepared and take down some numbers.

 

[David Goolsby]

There is no such thing a brand loyalty!

I can't believe you said this! LOL!!!

Hey dude, I just waited to see what KM was going to offer! When they announced that their first APS DSLR was going to be based on the 7D that was all I needed to hear. Next, I just waited to see what the image quality would be like and I liked what I saw. It came down to familiarity with the interface (knobs and dials vs. menus and image quaility. Many behind the scenes were well aware that if the 7D didn't deliver the goods for me that I was E-1 bound!

If KM is guilty of anything it is that they don't tip their hand to
their competitors (and therefore their customers!) because they
realize that to gain a foothold in the DSLR market they have to
CREATE THEIR OWN NICHE and not necessarily compete head-to-head
with eveyone else.

What was their niche before the 7D? To say they weren't competing
head to head is an understatement indeed! They lost a lot of
customers by doing this.

In film cameras their niche was offering 95% of the functionality of the 'big boys' for better than half the price with lenses as good as the big boys for considerably less in most cases.

In prosumer digitals you can't deny that they helped to lower prices by offering competitive products (do you remember how much the CP900 originally sold for?) AS in the A1/A2 also helped to carve their niche. Are you saying that they didn't make a pile of money off the D5/D7x/Ax? Those cameras helped establish the market! They also were among the first series of cameras to bring 'the camera look' to the prosumer line as opposed the the look of brick/slab with a lens attached to it.

As for losing customers, look how many are flocking to it now. I have said before that there is no such thing as brand loyalty. People keep saying that once someone buys into a lens system they will NEVER switch back. BULLSH*T!!! eBay does a brisk business in camera system turnover. People routinely jumped from the D100 to the 10D to the SD9 to the E1 to the 1DMkII. Go back over the history of DP Review and look how many people jump from system to system on a regular basis just to have the flavor of the month. Look how many people have 2 or more different systems.

--
JCDoss

--
David

'Totally Satisfied Maxxum 7D Owner and Proud Owner of the Maxxum 'PrimeTime'
Lineup (Maxxum 50/2.8 Macro, 85/1.4, 200/2.8, 300/4.0)

 

[alex904]

Nikon and Canon advertise well in advance all future products -
Minolta doesn't unless forced to, as was the case with the 7D. No,
I'm certainly not a market analyst, neither is Minolta, if you look
at APS. Sigma is the world's largest independent manufacturer of
SLR lenses. Unlike Kodak they make their own cameras, the even made
some for 35 mm film.

You definitely are not a market analyst. Minolta never use a hype buzzying marketing in her recent history. All their innovations were falking on heads of their competetitors (and customers) all of sudden. Like their autofocus (7000?) camera for instance. Did you calculate how many customers Nikon or Fuji for instance lost because of premature announcements and promises?

Minolta actually made original announcement of 7D more than 8 months before actual release. It's untypical for Minolta and probably they will change their marketing strategy in DSLR market where tech specs buzz is more important than creative part.

 

[alex904]

It'd be interesting to see how another Minolta DSLR fares now that
the initial Minolta glass owners have made their purchase.. things
don't look great as i haven't seen another camera go so early into
mail in rebates in it's lifecycle..

It did for many other cameras including Christmas promotions on D10 and D300 I saw in US last year. Besides, not all M glass owners did not make their minds up yet. Like me for instance. I've not bought D7 yet.

 

[Mark K]

Depite the fact I enjoyed 7D and love it, I will not show my disappointment on the AF speed and accuracy. some 70% of my over 5K photos are malfocused and so far there has not been a plan for upgrading their centry old quality lens serious. I have a fairly completely collection of Minolta glass from 16mm to 200mm/2.8, leaving alone the long telephoto lenses. The focusing problem is serious and it looks like the repetition of the same problem from my Scan Elite 5400. Even after repair and replacement of the main circuit board, 5400 cannot focus corretly.
--
Mark K
7d and 7

 

[José B]

Hey Ron,

Nice to see you again here. Great to know you're having a great time with the 7D. Forest for the trees indeed!

Best regards,

José

I strongly believe that KM is here to stay. I've always said that
they will parlay their much-vaunted film SLR lineup to the digital
space and will start wth a digital 7. You have to give them some
time to launch other products like an entry-level DSLR and of
course the 9D.

As for me, again in tennis terms, 'I am seeing the ball well with
the 7D', or in hoops-land, that 'rim is looking big as an ocean'.
In this month's Shutterbug issue, one article talked about 'being
in the zone' in your photography and I am there right now with my
7D!

Cheers,

José

I do not want to irritate anyone but after having my 7D for four
months, I started to worry about KM based on the following reasons

1. KM fails to release an entry level DSLR in time and the
apperance of 350D makes this even more remote

2. KM fails to project a future upgrade for current Minolta AF
lenses. There is no new lenses with SSM inplementation and there is
no plan for current G lenses.

--
Mark K
7d and 7

--
http://www.pbase.com/jmb_56/maxxum_7d
A very exuberant Konica Minolta Maxxum 7D trailblazer. Who's
zooming who: Sigma 12-24/4.5-5.6 EX, Maxxum 28-75/2.8 and Sigma
70-200/2.8 EX

--
http://www.pbase.com/jmb_56/maxxum_7d

A very exuberant Konica Minolta Maxxum 7D trailblazer. Who's zooming who: Sigma 12-24/4.5-5.6 EX, Maxxum 28-75/2.8 and Sigma 70-200/2.8 EX

 

[Klipsen]

I believe we're saying the same thing.

Nikon and Canon advertise well in advance all future products -

You definitely are not a market analyst. Minolta never use a hype
buzzying marketing in her recent history. All their innovations
were falking on heads of their competetitors (and customers) all of
sudden. Like their autofocus (7000?) camera for instance. Did you
calculate how many customers Nikon or Fuji for instance lost
because of premature announcements and promises?

But Minolta's most recent history actually holds the one example of an announcement in advance of product release: the 7D.

Minolta doesn't unless forced to, as was the case with the 7D.

Minolta actually made original announcement of 7D more than 8
months before actual release. It's untypical for Minolta and
probably they will change their marketing strategy in DSLR market
where tech specs buzz is more important than creative part.

No disagreement there.
--
I have no humble opinion.

 

[Rendrat]

I work for a supplier for KM. One day, I talked to one of their executive.

He told me that digital photography is too competitive. They are focusing more on office equipment, than photography, because of more profit from office equipment. He himself said one day they are questioning the future of photography/camera division.

--
Rendrat

 

[Mark K]

Rendrat

Thanks for pointing out but that is also one of my worries, too. As a Minolta fan, I tend to use everything with a KM label and I started this color laser printer hunt one year back. Unfortunately local KM sales rep do not even know much about what products they are selling.

--
Mark K
7d and 7