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Buy D30 now? Or Should I Wait?

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Darren Joy

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Been wanting to get back into photography lately. I don't currently have a camera at all, and have decided I want digital.

Looked at the Sony F505v, but a couple of things put me off. I formerly used an EOS 650, so am kind of used to them, and rate these units highly, so when I saw the D30....I knew it's the one I wanted.

It's a lot more than I had intended to spend however, much more, but to buy anything less now would leave me wishing I had got the D30.

I have read that a newer "Pro" model is due soon, so my question is, would I be wiser to wait, in the hope that it's release will bring down the price of the D30? Is this likely to happen, or have we seen near rock bottom for the D30 body?

I am buying from the UK, so it's around £1800 here, plus I have to buy a lens and a microdrive, so I am looking at about £2500 all in, not an insignificant investment, so I would be looking to bring the price down if at all possible.

Thoughts?
 
Darren:

I seriously doubt that the advent of the pro version oif the D30 will affect the price much, and, of course, the pro model will cost much more.

The D30 is a solidly built, well functioning machine that I enjoy very much. The UK prices are lower than the states. I would urge you to "go for it".

BTW, I recently got the 28-135 IS lens, and am planning to take that to Italy in the fall. Recommended highly.

ENJOY!

Jack Winberg
Darren Joy said:
Been wanting to get back into photography lately. I don't currently
have a camera at all, and have decided I want digital.

Looked at the Sony F505v, but a couple of things put me off. I
formerly used an EOS 650, so am kind of used to them, and rate
these units highly, so when I saw the D30....I knew it's the one I
wanted.

It's a lot more than I had intended to spend however, much more,
but to buy anything less now would leave me wishing I had got the
D30.

I have read that a newer "Pro" model is due soon, so my question
is, would I be wiser to wait, in the hope that it's release will
bring down the price of the D30? Is this likely to happen, or have
we seen near rock bottom for the D30 body?

I am buying from the UK, so it's around £1800 here, plus I have to
buy a lens and a microdrive, so I am looking at about £2500 all in,
not an insignificant investment, so I would be looking to bring the
price down if at all possible.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
 
Darren Joy said:
Been wanting to get back into photography lately. I don't currently
have a camera at all, and have decided I want digital.

Looked at the Sony F505v, but a couple of things put me off. I
formerly used an EOS 650, so am kind of used to them, and rate
these units highly, so when I saw the D30....I knew it's the one I
wanted.

It's a lot more than I had intended to spend however, much more,
but to buy anything less now would leave me wishing I had got the
D30.

I have read that a newer "Pro" model is due soon, so my question
is, would I be wiser to wait, in the hope that it's release will
bring down the price of the D30? Is this likely to happen, or have
we seen near rock bottom for the D30 body?

I am buying from the UK, so it's around £1800 here, plus I have to
buy a lens and a microdrive, so I am looking at about £2500 all in,
not an insignificant investment, so I would be looking to bring the
price down if at all possible.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Since the D30 is already the lowest priced of the current crop of SLR's with removable lens systems, and there is little on the horizon to pressure Canon to drop their price, I would go for it as suggested by the other posts. The only possible think which could cause Canon to drop their price would be the introduction of a competitive product at a lower price by Nikon. Nikon will introduce a competitive product, but in their history of digital product introductions they have never been influenced by other manufacturer's prices to any great degree and I sincerely doubt that they can produce a competitive product at even the same price since Canon appears to have the patent on the CMOS device which makes the D30 so competitive.

Lin
 
Darren Joy said:
Been wanting to get back into photography lately. I don't currently
I have read that a newer "Pro" model is due soon, so my question
is, would I be wiser to wait, in the hope that it's release will
bring down the price of the D30? Is this likely to happen, or have
we seen near rock bottom for the D30 body?
Click to expand...
The price of the D30 will most certainly come down -- wait five or six years and I suspect you can pick one up quite cheap. Wait ten or twenty and (assuming you can still find one and they aren't museum quality priced) you might get someone to give you their old one. Just like computers, if you wait long enough you'll be able to afford even the most terrific of them today. The problem is, by the time it's really cheap, you probably won't want it (because the newer model will be so much better).

If your question is merely -- will I save a few hundred dollars by waiting a year or so, I suspect the answer to that is also yes. But it's also short sighted -- you will have missed many wonderful images and opportunities that those few hundred could never replace.

So your question ultimately becomes, is something going to happen in the very near future (within a few months) to dramatically lower the D30 price? The answer to that is probably not. The release of the pro model is still many many months away (I have seen nothing yet to convince me my original estimation of it being available late this year or early next year is wrong). The Nikon D1 is still selling for exactly the same price it sold at over 15 months ago, despite newer and higher megapixel models being available. The longer you wait, the more you miss.
 
Darren Joy said:
I have read that a newer "Pro" model is due soon, so my question
is, would I be wiser to wait, in the hope that it's release will
bring down the price of the D30? Is this likely to happen, or have
we seen near rock bottom for the D30 body?

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I've seen at least one post suggesting that Canon will announce a new digital SLR (not necessarily the long-awaited "pro" model) at PMA. The poster did not claim any special knowledge, so I wouldn't depend on his prediction. On the other hand, PMA is only a couple of weeks away; it couldn't hurt to wait that long.

Best regards,
Steve Farmer
 
Mike Kelley said:
The price of the D30 will most certainly come down -- wait five or
six years and I suspect you can pick one up quite cheap{...}

If your question is merely -- will I save a few hundred dollars by
waiting a year or so {...}
Click to expand...
On October 20th D30 cost US$2,999 (not counting Photoalley's $2,500 screwed-up special)
Today D30 can be picked up on E-Bay for US$2,600

I believe that D30 will break $2000 by the end of May. I'm so confident (well, hopeful) about it that I restrain myself from purchasing it now. Since I am an amatuer (like Darren Joy) I don't believe that I can justify not waiting six months to save $1,000. Especially because I have ElanIIe and S100/IXUS to calm me down for now :)
Mike Kelley said:
So your question ultimately becomes, is something going to happen
in the very near future (within a few months) to dramatically lower
the D30 price? The answer to that is probably not.
Click to expand...
I come from computer field into photography, so I will bet against you and will say that I think first (from Canon, or Nikon, or Fuji) 6MP cameras will hit store shelves by August.
 
PatMunits said:
I believe that D30 will break $2000 by the end of May. I'm so
confident (well, hopeful) about it that I restrain myself from
purchasing it now.
Click to expand...
I hope you are right but I am afraid that you are wrong.

I am ready to trade up from my Nikon Coolpix 950 to a D30. The only reason that I will not buy today is that I am unwilling to go into debt for one. I should be able to purchase one for today's prices in May or June.

If you are right I will save some money.

However, I doubt if it will go that low. I bought my 950 in May 1999 for $899. It didn't drop in price until the 990 was introduced in 2000.

Because I have to wait, I may come out ahead.
 
I have the same configuration as you now - Elan IIE and S100. I ordered s100 at the same time as D30 - to have something with me on every trip or when skiing/biking. I managed ot get D30 for about $2200 from my best European friends trading with this comodity so I am protected against the depreciation a little bit, but I was ready to go for 2900 as well. I know that D30 certainly won't breake $2300 anytime soon for most of the consumers. Wait 3 years and you could have one for 1500 - or perhaps you won't because at that time there will be D60 with 6MP for the same price.

Otherwise PCs would be sold with 486 for $100 - are they? Everything is the game and we are part of it. That game is called 'the technology evolution' and it has its cycles and costs and profits. It is not worth for Canon to build a production for large quantity when they don't know what will follow up in the next 4 years... Would you invest millions/billions not knowing if somebody won't come up with the better/faster at half of the cost within a few months? So you do small quantities and test the market on people like us - enthusiatists willing to pay a premium for the latest and greatest.

This technology is so young to go out to the mass. Who knows if that CMOS won't go nuts in 2 years? Other circuits?

my 2cents
PatMunits said:
Mike Kelley said:
The price of the D30 will most certainly come down -- wait five or
six years and I suspect you can pick one up quite cheap{...}

If your question is merely -- will I save a few hundred dollars by
waiting a year or so {...}
Click to expand...
On October 20th D30 cost US$2,999 (not counting Photoalley's $2,500
screwed-up special)
Today D30 can be picked up on E-Bay for US$2,600

I believe that D30 will break $2000 by the end of May. I'm so
confident (well, hopeful) about it that I restrain myself from
purchasing it now. Since I am an amatuer (like Darren Joy) I don't
believe that I can justify not waiting six months to save $1,000.
Especially because I have ElanIIe and S100/IXUS to calm me down for
now :)
Member said:
So your question ultimately becomes, is something going to happen
in the very near future (within a few months) to dramatically lower
the D30 price? The answer to that is probably not.
Click to expand...
I come from computer field into photography, so I will bet against
you and will say that I think first (from Canon, or Nikon, or Fuji)
6MP cameras will hit store shelves by August.
Click to expand...
 
Roman35866 said:
{...} Wait 3 years and you
could have one for 1500 - or perhaps you won't because at that time
there will be D60 with 6MP for the same price.
Click to expand...
three years from now D30 bodies will go for $50 at a garage sale.
Roman35866 said:
Otherwise PCs would be sold with 486 for $100 - are they?
Click to expand...
yes they are. 486 PCs can be bought for $30 (you pay extra for monitors="lenses")
Roman35866 said:
Everything is the game and we are part of it. That game is called
'the technology evolution' and it has its cycles and costs and
profits. It is not worth for Canon to build a production for large
quantity when they don't know what will follow up in the next 4
years...
Click to expand...
4 years is the next Millennium as far as digital evolution is concerned. And besides, that's why digital components are usually outsorced to manufacturing companies (IBM-manufacturing used to make processors for Intel).
Roman35866 said:
Would you invest millions/billions not knowing if somebody
won't come up with the better/faster at half of the cost within a
few months?
Click to expand...
Absolutely, Intel Corp. does just that and still turns huge profits.
Roman35866 said:
So you do small quantities and test the market on
people like us - enthusiatists willing to pay a premium for the
latest and greatest.
Click to expand...
Digital market is just like that. Once in awhile a new technology is developed (such as a really usable/effective CMOS) and that's when it really cost money (thus justifiably high initial prices). But afterwards the manufacturer/patent holder can milk the cash-cow for a few years by merely improving the technology every so often (3 megapixels, 6MP, 9MP, ... 15MP).
Roman35866 said:
This technology is so young to go out to the mass. Who knows if
that CMOS won't go nuts in 2 years? Other circuits?

my 2cents
Click to expand...
the way I see it - last Christmas was the DVD season, the one before that was Internet-enabled PCs. I think this Christmas will be the Digicam one.

The camera manufacturers and consumer digital printing services seem to be ready to explode the market and make folks switch to Digicoms starting perhaps with next month's photoshow. (?!)

my 2 santims :)
 
Mike Kelley said:
The Nikon D1 is still
selling for exactly the same price it sold at over 15 months ago,
despite newer and higher megapixel models being available.
Click to expand...
This is effectively untrue. The reason the D1 is still selling for the same price is because there is not a competing ruggedized, high frame rate camera available. The resolution differences are relatively minor and the professional features of the D1 are more important in its target market. Some serious competition should arise over the next six months to a year.

To answer the original question, its probably worth waiting two weeks until the PMA is over.

-Z-
 
Jack Winberg said:
I seriously doubt that the advent of the pro version oif the D30
will affect the price much, and, of course, the pro model will cost
much more.
Click to expand...
Wrong on both counts.

The D30 is a bit overpriced at the moment and Canon can't justify a $2000 or lower pricetag for a couple of reasons:

1) It may diminish sales of the EOS-1V film camera

2) It is not a pro-oriented camera (and never was) - a lower price would make certain critics more happy to write it off as another gimmick by Canon to capitalize on the digital SLR market w/interchangeable lenses controlled by Kodak, Nikon and now Fujifilm

3) Unless the Japanese Yen appreciates against the US dollar around 2nd half of 2001 or around Christmas season, the pro digital version can be purchased for less than $4000 - retail. With this price, the D30 will be yesterday's news and the interest will then concentrate on the pro version.

4) In North America and Europe, a four figure sum for a digital camera - between $4-7K in their respective currencies will be considered a bit pricey but still within affodable range. In exchange rate term especially with those in Far East countries, the figure can ballooned into five or six-figure amounts in the local currencies, certainly not affordable for the enthusiasts living there - Canon want to sell as many pro digital 1V as much as the analog version and D30, to do that, the price MUST be affordable to many, not enclusive to a few.

5) Back in 1998, a Canon representative told me that a pro digital camera developed with Canon's own patents can be sold for as little as 1/3 of what the Kodak DCS 520/EOS D2000 cost (was US$11,500 then). :-)

Kai Pin
 
How long are you willing to wait, and for how much of a discount? Look at the Nikon D-1 -- it's been out for over a year, and still sells for near it's original price.

I doubt Canon has any plans to lower the MSRP of the D-30 within the next 12 - 18 months. How much they'll lower the actual costs to the dealer is another story, though.

I think that the competition (what type of digital SLR's they introduce, and the pricing) will have far more impact on D-30 prices than the new Canon pro model.
Darren Joy said:
Been wanting to get back into photography lately. I don't currently
have a camera at all, and have decided I want digital.

I have read that a newer "Pro" model is due soon, so my question
is, would I be wiser to wait, in the hope that it's release will
bring down the price of the D30? Is this likely to happen, or have
we seen near rock bottom for the D30 body?
Click to expand...
 
Kai Pin said:
Jack Winberg said:
I seriously doubt that the advent of the pro version oif the D30
will affect the price much, and, of course, the pro model will cost
much more.
Click to expand...
Wrong on both counts.
Click to expand...
Says who? Jack wrote the he "seriously doubts". His was not a statement of fact. It was an opinion as is yours. None of us knows (and I bet Canon doesn't even have a good feel) what's going to happen in the digital camera pricing models. Will they follow computer pricing models? Will their own model evolve? Who knows? The market will have to speak on the "affrodable" digital SLR products.

You write the D30 is a bit overpriced. Based on what? A product has no absolute scale to which one can assign "value". The value of a product is based on how many people are willing to pay however much money, and whether that amount makes it worth a company's efforts to produce products in that market segment. If Canon is meeting their revenue goals with the D30, then it doesn't matter what you think, what I think, or what anybody else thinks. It is priced right for Canon and Canon's customers.

"Justification" happens at the individual purchaser level. Whether Canon can justify something or not really doesn't matter. I as a potential customer make that determination. If Canon has priced at "right", then they'll get a lot of customers. If not, they won't. Why they set its price point where they set it is of no concern to me. They don't have to justify anything to me. I look at the product, weigh its value to me, then decide whether I can justify it to myself.
Kai Pin said:
The D30 is a bit overpriced at the moment and Canon can't justify a
$2000 or lower pricetag for a couple of reasons:

1) It may diminish sales of the EOS-1V film camera

2) It is not a pro-oriented camera (and never was) - a lower price
would make certain critics more happy to write it off as another
gimmick by Canon to capitalize on the digital SLR market
w/interchangeable lenses controlled by Kodak, Nikon and now Fujifilm

3) Unless the Japanese Yen appreciates against the US dollar around
2nd half of 2001 or around Christmas season, the pro digital
version can be purchased for less than $4000 - retail. With this
price, the D30 will be yesterday's news and the interest will then
concentrate on the pro version.

4) In North America and Europe, a four figure sum for a digital
camera - between $4-7K in their respective currencies will be
considered a bit pricey but still within affodable range. In
exchange rate term especially with those in Far East countries, the
figure can ballooned into five or six-figure amounts in the local
currencies, certainly not affordable for the enthusiasts living
there - Canon want to sell as many pro digital 1V as much as the
analog version and D30, to do that, the price MUST be affordable to
many, not enclusive to a few.

5) Back in 1998, a Canon representative told me that a pro digital
camera developed with Canon's own patents can be sold for as little
as 1/3 of what the Kodak DCS 520/EOS D2000 cost (was US$11,500
then). :-)

Kai Pin
Click to expand...
 
DavidP #28649 said:
How long are you willing to wait, and for how much of a discount?
Look at the Nikon D-1 -- it's been out for over a year, and still
sells for near it's original price.
Click to expand...
I was thinking in the short term, i.e. the next couple of months. Really, I was just trying to get a feel for the likelihood of the D30 coming down in price when the Pro model hits the market. I don't know when that is though, and from the ( very helpful ) replies here, it doesn't look like it's anytime soon.

All this suggests to me that the price of the D30 isn't going to change much in the next few months, which is as long as I am likely to wait =)

I will most likely just "go for it" as was suggested. In fact, my local Jessops has one in stock, and as of today, they're keeping it aside for me. They also have a price-matching policy which they don't openly advertise much, which I shall be holding them to =)

I shall take a trip there tomorrow lunchtime, and flex the plastic again... sigh ah well. =)
 
The D30 is not perfect, but it is one wail of a lot of fun to use. I expect you can save about $300 (or $2700) for one today over most of the first buyers, but I think the price will be flat for a while (till say at least this fall). Canon may fix some of the bugs with a "D35" like product, but then they may not. The upcoming shows will probably tell what will be out this fall.

Also, don't forget that one of the "best" features of the D30 is that you will want lenses. I have taken about 1200 shots with mine on an accellerated corse in SLR photography. After the Sigma 17--35 and Canon 28-135 (all my old EOS lenses were not good enough and/or the 1.6x multiplier fouled up their usability), I'm now planning on some F2.8 glass (I wish there was a 50 to 200F2.8L with IS, but that would be too easy).

Karl
Darren Joy said:
Darren Joy said:
How long are you willing to wait, and for how much of a discount?
Look at the Nikon D-1 -- it's been out for over a year, and still
sells for near it's original price.
Click to expand...
I was thinking in the short term, i.e. the next couple of months.
Really, I was just trying to get a feel for the likelihood of the
D30 coming down in price when the Pro model hits the market. I
don't know when that is though, and from the ( very helpful )
replies here, it doesn't look like it's anytime soon.

All this suggests to me that the price of the D30 isn't going to
change much in the next few months, which is as long as I am likely
to wait =)

I will most likely just "go for it" as was suggested. In fact, my
local Jessops has one in stock, and as of today, they're keeping
it aside for me. They also have a price-matching policy which they
don't openly advertise much, which I shall be holding them to =)

I shall take a trip there tomorrow lunchtime, and flex the plastic
again... sigh ah well. =)
Click to expand...
 
Mike Greer said:
Wrong on both counts.

Says who? Jack wrote the he "seriously doubts". His was not a
statement of fact. It was an opinion as is yours. None of us knows
(and I bet Canon doesn't even have a good feel) what's going to
happen in the digital camera pricing models. Will they follow
computer pricing models? Will their own model evolve? Who knows?
The market will have to speak on the "affrodable" digital SLR
products.
Click to expand...
Okay, I admit I overlook the "seriously doubts" part of Jack's posting. However, mine posting is not an opinion - I just found out the list price recently that Canon intends to market the pro digital 1V version. At that list price, the retail should be less than $4K, bearing any fluctuation in exchange rate.
Mike Greer said:
You write the D30 is a bit overpriced. Based on what? A product has
no absolute scale to which one can assign "value". The value of a
product is based on how many people are willing to pay however much
money, and whether that amount makes it worth a company's efforts
to produce products in that market segment. If Canon is meeting
their revenue goals with the D30, then it doesn't matter what you
think, what I think, or what anybody else thinks. It is priced
right for Canon and Canon's customers.
Click to expand...
In a way, yes. But when the price start dropping in the near future, there are bound to be people who start lamenting over the new pricing level.
Mike Greer said:
"Justification" happens at the individual purchaser level. Whether
Canon can justify something or not really doesn't matter. I as a
potential customer make that determination. If Canon has priced at
"right", then they'll get a lot of customers. If not, they won't.
Why they set its price point where they set it is of no concern to
me. They don't have to justify anything to me. I look at the
product, weigh its value to me, then decide whether I can justify
it to myself.
Click to expand...
Right . It doesn't matter to me either. Let's not forget that the original posting is about whether to buy the D30 now or wait a while till the price drops. I answered that accordingly to the original posting as well as responding to Jack's.

Here you are debating that my posting has no basis just because it doesn't agree with your point-of-view about Canon's pricing or justification. A lot of people like to get the best price for their purchase and it makes a difference to them if an item that cost $3K now may cost less than $2K by end of the year especially so for those that are not in a hurry to get one right now. Also, price drops may not be decided by the manufacturers alone as their dealers are bound to lower them to clear excess stocks. :-)

Kai Pin
 
My personal theory :
Ther are two kind of buyers : the one who really want "it" right now:
they will pay any (high) price : Canon is happy ...

... my retailer was not very willing to help me get a lower price that anounced ...
And others, who REALLY want the thing (D30 here ...) but can't afford it ...
no, they can't ...
so they buy a E10, a G1, a beer, ... and wait and think.

and the price slowly goes down, and "poor" guys like me finally make the move ... like any other CONSUMMER high tech thing, the prices go down !!
It is different with PRO stuff.- prices are much more stable ...
D30 is NOT a pro camera.
price will (slowly) go down - not as fats as one would expect ...

and I am sure I will pay a few hundreds less than I would have paid end 2000.
the shop I go now is OK to lower the price !...
My camera store now sells more S1 ( "free" 1 GIG microdrive helps ) than D30 ...

The price will just slowly decrease as the exitation around the D30 disappears ...
I wouldn't compare Nikon D1 PRO model with D30 consummer model ...

Nikon's (consummer) coolpix 880 ( yes yes yes it is a small (amazing)plastic thingy ...) went from 800 to 499 $ quite fast ... while the Nikon pro just didn't move one cent ...

time is money
it's free to be optimistic
 
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