No Time To Lose
Leading Member
- Messages
- 559
- Reaction score
- 929
I quite like trying to understand the business dynamics / drivers for companies in areas of interest for me and I’m struggling with this lens based on the current rumours.
It looks like (I’m not qualified to comment on the numbers suggested here) that the 50-200 f2.8 (LWL) is going to be considerably heavier (1350g vs 880g) and considerably more expensive (longer reach, bigger, more complex - e.g IS - and likely some more exotic materials) than the 40-150 f2.8.
I don’t doubt that there is a use case - f2.8 at 150-200 and f4 at 200-280mm but what is the business case for OMS? Who are the target buyers?
A lens of this complexity must have chewed up a considerable amount of OMS’ development resources - I can’t imagine them doing this without a sound business case and, so far, I can’t see what that is. The success of the BWL must have given them some encouragement - but there is a clear use case for that. I can see why another “white” level premium lens would appeal to them but it has to sell in sufficient volume at the right price to meet (hopefully exceed) the business case to justify the investment and I just don’t understand where that volume is coming from.
So, that’s why I’m hoping that OMS is hiding something else under its skirts - they have been quite good at pulling rabbits out of the hat in the past.
It looks like (I’m not qualified to comment on the numbers suggested here) that the 50-200 f2.8 (LWL) is going to be considerably heavier (1350g vs 880g) and considerably more expensive (longer reach, bigger, more complex - e.g IS - and likely some more exotic materials) than the 40-150 f2.8.
I don’t doubt that there is a use case - f2.8 at 150-200 and f4 at 200-280mm but what is the business case for OMS? Who are the target buyers?
- Upgrade from the 40-150 f2.8? Yes, some but who? It’s a lot of money. Sports photographers, especially indoors, is the most obvious segment. But what proportion of the M43 population does that represent who would be willing to pay that sort of money? I can’t imagine it is that many - if you are serious about that segment you are very likely to be in FF. Of course there are some exceptions but they are exactly that.
- Wildlife - yes some - but it has to squeeze in amongst the 40-150, 300 and BWL. A lot of wildlife shooters in the system already have a selection of lenses so the upgrade case needs to be strong enough for them.
- The IS is an additional feature over the 40-150 but, at these focal lengths, how much difference does sync IS make vs IBIS? I’d guess a stop or 2 above 5-6 stops for IBIS only. Many argue that shutter speeds to freeze motion largely render better IS irrelevant.
- Well-heeled existing M43 photographers who just want it - or suffer from terminal GAS.
- Would it pull new photographers into the system? I just don’t know - what use case makes it compelling switch from FF?? I get the BWL case but not this.
A lens of this complexity must have chewed up a considerable amount of OMS’ development resources - I can’t imagine them doing this without a sound business case and, so far, I can’t see what that is. The success of the BWL must have given them some encouragement - but there is a clear use case for that. I can see why another “white” level premium lens would appeal to them but it has to sell in sufficient volume at the right price to meet (hopefully exceed) the business case to justify the investment and I just don’t understand where that volume is coming from.
So, that’s why I’m hoping that OMS is hiding something else under its skirts - they have been quite good at pulling rabbits out of the hat in the past.
- Internal TC would be a welcome surprise since there has been no sense of this coming so far. I can’t imagine why they wouldn’t given they have it on the BWL but who knows? I would have thought that an internal TC would make it more attractive to more people. Whether they really need it and can justify it is another matter but the same argument applies to the BWL but I can attest that it is a really neat feature on the BWL.
- Simultaneously launch of OM1.3 that is a more significant upgrade than the OM1.2 was? Possible as discussed elsewhere but, apart from one hint a while ago, there have been no indications of this.
- An OM1.3 with the patented Astro feature might make a f2.8 lens in this focal range with IS very interesting for some - especially if they also launched (or announced) a WA lens with IS.