Should I hope for a Z body "D500" replacement?

The Z5II does have IBIS.
If we are talking 400mm+ focal lengths in what the D500 is typically used for, IBIS doesn't even matter much anyways. The big lenses are all VR which is the more dominant method in those ranges.
Not only that, but I generally disable IBIS when shooting over 1/2000th, and to get nicer bokeh. I do use it for panning or if I'm shooting on a bridge, boat, or in the wind.

I think the Z6III is a great replacement, other than battery life (lower on every Z but the Z9.) I had the Z50II for a few months, and it is a surprisingly good camera. Almost enough for everyone's needs. The Z50II could have done a little better with a 26-33mp sensor (or IBIS or partially stacked sensor,) for $1,200, and offer the Z30II/ZfcII (with Expeed7) with a basic EVF at a lower price point. I've used the R7 and A7C, and I'd lean towards the A7C/A7CII over a DX body. I prefer Nikon's noise and less red color noise at higher ISO's.

@OP If you're into Nikon, the Z5II is probably the way to go on a budget. It is still cheaper than the D500 upon release, and even more so adjusted for inflation/covid/tariffs. I'm waiting for a sale or refurb to pair one with my Z6III. Unless a Z30II comes along with an EVF, as I'd like something smaller like a range finder. I'm sticking with Nikon though.

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“Stop down and smell the roses.”
 
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I posted a similar thread above today but I think this thread allows me to add some clarity.
Any rumor about having a D500 replacement?

I'm still waiting for it especially with IBIS. The Z50II does not get me excited...
I wonder about the reasoning behind all the commentators suggesting the Z8 as a mirrorless D500 successor. It certainly could be, if you're not restricted by budget and are into wildlife photography,
I am mainly a wildlife photographer but also need a general stills camera. Perhaps if you have small hands or favour lighter bodies and don’t use long or heavy lenses it might be too much to handle but if you have been happy with the D500, its a very natural shift to the Z8 and it is good at so much. (Interestingly, i have recently discovered that its low vibration features and high res sensor makes it a natural choice for focus stacking in photo microcroscopy.)
as the corresponding telephoto lenses are available in abundance.
Yes, i do still use the F mount 500 pf on Z2F. I have not bought a 600 (possibly ‘yet’) but haven’t really felt the need to do so (either for reach or quality) what with the DX crop/cropability of the bigger sensor or just having got better at getting closer to my subjects.
However, for other genres, it might be the wrong choice. The camera is simply too big — a mirrorless D500 would be smaller and lighter — and the full-frame lenses are bigger and heavier than the corresponding APS-C variants would be.
Yes, if you really value small, then the Z8 probably won’t be on your shopping list. But coming from the D500, I reiterate that it just is not a consideration you would worry about.
Instead, you might want to ask yourself what you are hoping to achieve with a camera like a mirrorless D500. There is very little chance of getting one from Nikon any time soon, as the company didn't even bother making an easy-to-make mirrorless D7xxx variant (they could basically churn those out tomorrow by sticking the Z50 sensor in the Z5II body),
I’ve already specifically stated what I upgraded to the Z8 for. None of those features come in any other body and it was why I ‘needed’ to upgrade. In retrospect, I should have done it earlier but waiting until last year meant it was far less painful in cost terms.
and has mostly neglected developing its APS-C lens lineup (only five low-end models in six years). A middle- to high-end APS-C camera needs corresponding lenses. Without them, it's like a fast car with toy wheels.
High end DF cameras have always needed FF lenses. Fortunately Nikon sticks with the same mount so at least you know that. And Z lenses have got lighter. I’m really happy that my 500 pf works great on Z and I didn’t HAVE to also spend more than the body price to upgrade my kit. At the end or the day, I’m not convinced that a 500 pf DX really would be materially smaller or lighter or cheaper than the FF version. Sure the tube and lenses behind the front element might be narrower but I bet the body will need to be thicker for strength and the design costs and manufacturing cost will duplicate. So…
Would a full-frame Nikon be a viable substitute? Or would a different camera system be a better choice?
As a Nikon user, I couldn’t find a different system that was a better choice and I looked hard, really hard, for several years. Nevetheless, others needs may and will vary (but that silent camera leaves me with a big smile everytime I press the shutter).
 
Oh c'mon Bob, this kind of goal post moving, pedantic point is exactly why I wrote, originally: You can’t be overly literal in your expectations or hopes.
So expecting the same or similar pixel density is being overly literal?
jlafferty, post: 68397330, member: 1763049"]
Agreed with others who say the Z6III is the best Z approximate to the D500. You can’t be overly literal in your expectations or hopes. The D500 was a relatively inexpensive, great AF, lower res, fast body. The Z6III is each of those things, and has a lot to offer that the D500 couldn’t keep up with.
How could this be? The D500 is a crop sensor camera with a 21mp DX sensor. The Z6iii is a 24mp FF sensor which in crop mode is +/- 10mp. The big part of D500 popularity has always been for situations that require high focal lengths to fill the frame with smaller and less expensive lenses. When the Z6iii is in crop mode it is not in the same league a the D500. One of the Z7, or Z8 bodies can do this duty in crop mode, but not the Z5/6 models.
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Any rumor about having a D500 replacement?
No. The D500 didn't sell that well
Yet to read the actual sales data demonstrating poor sales, yet the myth gets exhumed yet again
So I remember reading that on Hogan's site, and it's the type of thing he's generally accurate on.

"well" is a subjective term, and I can't quantify how Nikon would measure that.

Having said all of that, your chart is persuasive.
 
Oh c'mon Bob, this kind of goal post moving, pedantic point is exactly why I wrote, originally: You can’t be overly literal in your expectations or hopes.
So expecting the same or similar pixel density is being overly literal?
No, I absolutely agree if that's your main need, the Z8 is the choice. I wasn't clear in what I typed, which is essentially: there's already a camera that addresses everything you could want in a D500 upgrade. But if you expect it to be a single camera that offers a 1:1 across every core metric (price, performance, weight, pixel density at DX FOV), you're being overly literal. Pierre's phrasing is even better: there will be no strict equivalency to it.

Because I wasn't thorough or clear in what I wrote, I mischaracterized what Bob wrote and I'm sorry for that Bob.

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http://jimlafferty.com
Evocative beats academic.
 
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Any rumor about having a D500 replacement?
No. The D500 didn't sell that well
Yet to read the actual sales data demonstrating poor sales, yet the myth gets exhumed yet again
So I remember reading that on Hogan's site, and it's the type of thing he's generally accurate on.
"well" is a subjective term, and I can't quantify how Nikon would measure that.
Having said all of that, your chart is persuasive.
If you visit the photosynthesis site (http://www.photosynthesis.co.nz/nikon/camera.html), and review the crowdsourced data on D500 serial numbers out in the world, you'll see that roughly 200,000 units have sold. It's not a small number, especially considering it was priced at $2K at introduction.
 
The big part of D500 popularity has always been for situations that require high focal lengths to fill the frame with smaller and less expensive lenses.
I have never owned a D500, but I do not share your impression that people bought a D500 so they could fill the frame with smaller or less expensive lenses. By which I presume you mean DX lenses.

On the contrary, numerous current and prior D500 owners on this forum apparently used FX lenses like the 200-500mm. Which by the way is five pounds, and at time of release was $1400.

It seems to me that you are speculating about why people bought their D500s. But if you have some statistics or other data backing up your claim, I would be interested in seeing it.
That sounds like what I meant. The D500 allowed them to use the DX and FF lenses like the 200-500 and get out to 750 with full sensor resolution on a high end DX body. This would be less expensive and much less bulk than a 750mm lens for their FF body. And they can do this today with mirrorless Z7, 8, and 9 models used in crop mode. But the 24mp FF bodies do not have enough mp left at crop mode to be really useful.
 
It just seems that there is still a huge following and fan base for the D500 and therefore a constant call for a mirrorless version. I can understand how the owners of D500 feel, but have never used one myself, but don't really understand why most don't seem to want to look to the 45mp mirrorless Nikon FF's as a replacement. It just looks to me like the likes of a Z7(something) in crop mode would be a satisfactory D500 replacement, except for the optical viewfinder, and if that is the problem a new DX mirrorless isn't going to work either. But like so many things in life, we don't have to understand why others have different opinions than ours.
 
The big part of D500 popularity has always been for situations that require high focal lengths to fill the frame with smaller and less expensive lenses.
I have never owned a D500, but I do not share your impression that people bought a D500 so they could fill the frame with smaller or less expensive lenses. By which I presume you mean DX lenses.

On the contrary, numerous current and prior D500 owners on this forum apparently used FX lenses like the 200-500mm. Which by the way is five pounds, and at time of release was $1400.

It seems to me that you are speculating about why people bought their D500s. But if you have some statistics or other data backing up your claim, I would be interested in seeing it.
That sounds like what I meant. The D500 allowed them to use the DX and FF lenses like the 200-500 and get out to 750 with full sensor resolution on a high end DX body. This would be less expensive and much less bulk than a 750mm lens for their FF body. And they can do this today with mirrorless Z7, 8, and 9 models used in crop mode. But the 24mp FF bodies do not have enough mp left at crop mode to be really useful.
But it is an assumption that, absent a D500, an FX user is going to be forced to buy a 750mm lens. That they will spend as much money as is required to fill the frame the same way as they could with a 500mm lens on a DX camera.

What if they already own a 500mm lens and an FX camera? That would make a D500 an additional, discretionary expense, and not a cost savings, to get to 750mm.

Filling the frame is good, and DX cameras do help "fill the frame." We can agree on that. But it is IMO pure speculation to suggest that people bought D500s to save money on lenses. There is no way of knowing that.

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Jonathan
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jtr27/
 
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You're way "late to this party", friend! We've been asking that question since the Z9 release in 2021.

Short answer ... I highly doubt it ...

Long reason ... most D500 shooters have, by now, "made peace" with that fact, and have either moved on to a Z Body of some sort, or have shifted brands to achieve a pro-bodied APSC mirrorless solution, which satisfies their need for a "state of the art", upgraded camera, with controls and features equal to or better than the great D500.

Not to criticize the Z50II, which is certainly a good camera ... when some folks say it is the D500 replacement, I say it is not. It's not a "Pro Body", like we're used to, has the same 21MP sensor as the D500 did10 1/2 years ago (while other makers have as much as 40MP on APSC sensors), and falls short on the state of the art upgrades associated with higher end Z Cameras.

The Z8, though full frame, is the closest thing Nikon has, and many of us have moved to it. No one is complaining. We lost some "reach", but the Z8 sensor is so good, that cropping is well tolerated. The features of the Z8 are equal to the Z9, which equals or beats most anything else.

I read years ago that Nikon couldn't make one for less than $2500, but I still believe they should have, even though the other makers had cameras for less. Nikon missed a huge opportunity to make and sell a high end Z DX ... something with 26 - 36MP in the $2500 to $3000 range. It would have sold as well or better than the D500 ... I'm proof of that. Last Dec. I spent $5k on the Z8 + FTZII (+ Z 24-120 F4 to replace the 16-80mm, the one DX lens I was still using with the D500). So, I definitely would have dropped $3K on a 33MP Nikon "Z900" + FTZII.

As I mentioned, many D500 shooters have jumped brands, ... you see it in the forums on DPR ... XH2s, XT5, R7, Alpha 6700. Nikon lost a lot of lifers, they likely won't get back. These are serious photographers ... people buy more than cameras. They buy lenses and accessories that match their brand.

So, I think the ship has sailed, and the market is no longer there, and "the party is over".

Sure, there are still a few using the D500, but not enough for a late entry to capture enough market share to make it profitable. I had two D500's. I gifted one to a relative, and I still own one, though it is on loan to a friend. If Nikon does a ZDX Pro Body, now, some of you younger shooters might buy one, but older shooters like me, probably won't. The Z8 is satisfying our needs and wants, and it may be my last camera, anyway.

Just my 2¢ :-),

Arnie

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What we spend on this stuff is equal to the depth of our pockets squared ($²) times what we (j)ustify in our minds as to what we expect to do with our pictures plus (+) the (e)njoyment we experience from using our stuff and sharing the result ... $xxxx=$²(j+e :-) )
 
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It just seems that there is still a huge following and fan base for the D500 and therefore a constant call for a mirrorless version. I can understand how the owners of D500 feel, but have never used one myself, but don't really understand why most don't seem to want to look to the 45mp mirrorless Nikon FF's as a replacement.
Price is probably the biggest hurdle. A new Z8 typically runs about $3,500. If one waits for the occasional refurb offerings, the price drops to $3,200-3,300. That's about a kilobuck more than a new Z6III.

Personally, one of my top-3 requirements of a D500 replacement was a camera with Nikon's professional user interface. After six years with the D500, I'd come to prefer the banks system over the user settings of the enthusiast and entry-level bodies. I also liked all the assignable function buttons, mode turret, and build quality.

As has been mentioned, the Z8 is the natural D500 upgrade. If one uses their D500 with a vertical grip, the Z9 is the better choice. Nikon's aftermarket battery grip is...not good.
It just looks to me like the likes of a Z7(something) in crop mode would be a satisfactory D500 replacement, except for the optical viewfinder, and if that is the problem a new DX mirrorless isn't going to work either. But like so many things in life, we don't have to understand why others have different opinions than ours.
The Z7's lackluster autofocus is a hard no for most D500 owners. The D500 offered professional features, controls, and build quality in an APS-C body at a more affordable price. At the time, its autofocus system had one big advantage over both the D5 and D850...coverage. AF point coverage in the D500 is one of its great selling points. While other DSLRs had AF points clustered near the center of the frame, the D500 had nearly total horizontal coverage and very good vertical coverage. Focus & recompose became a thing of the past.

Anyway, there's no reason to think Nikon is developing a Z900. It's unfortunate because that camera at $2,395 would be an appealing option to a lot of bird & wildlife photography enthusiasts on a budget. But that's today's digital ILC market. Clear segmentation and avoidance of products within a lineup that compete too aggressively with each other is just the reality.
 
Agreed with others who say the Z6III is the best Z approximate to the D500. You can’t be overly literal in your expectations or hopes. The D500 was a relatively inexpensive, great AF, lower res, fast body. The Z6III is each of those things, and has a lot to offer that the D500 couldn’t keep up with.
I respectfully do not agree ... except that, of course the 10 year old D500 can't keep up with the Z6III ... But, that's why its called an "upgrade".

The Z6III is not a Pro Body in the sense of the D5 and D500, or the Z8 and Z9. And, 24MP on a Full frame sensor is good, but not as dense as 21MP on a DX sensor.

The 21MP D500 was built to be THE DX version of the Flagship 21MP D5, and as the top APSC camera for Sports and Wildlife, more than lived up to it. At the time, ONLY the D5 could "keep up with it". The Nikon Flagship is now the Z9. The Z8 is a Z9 without the built in vertical grip. So ... D5 > D500 ... Z9 (or Z8) > !?

If you were around when the12MP D300 (the DX version of the full frame (FX) 12MP D3) was ready for an upgrade replacement, you will know the FX D4 was released without a DX version D400. Some D300 shooters left the Nikon brand, while others opted for the more consumer level Dxxxx line. Nikon, then, was sure to announce the D5 and D500 in tandem in Jan of 2016. Nikon dropped the Pro DX line after the D500. So shooters have been looking for a Z DX version of the Flagship Z9 since 2021 ... which never came, and likely never will, and the result is many D500 shooters have skipped to brands that have exactly what they want, or are taking the lower level Z Bodies, with only a few Enthusiast and Professional shooters opting for the Flagship(s). (many professionals used and still use the D500)

The Pro Body speed and features are important to D500 shooters, as many have been using similar bodies since the D100, D200, and D300. An upgrade in resolution (regarding the 21MP sensor) for Nikon DX is long overdue, as well. Only the Z8 and Z9 approximate those criteria, and yet, are still not quite the pixel density of the 21MP D500.

To put it as simply as I can ... as an upgrade replacement for the D500, shooters would like a Z8-like Body, Speed, and features, with a 30-37MP stacked DX sensor (like Fuji XH2s, Canon R7). Why shouldn't we expect a 1.75x progression in resolution? 12 is to 21 as 21 is to 37

Hypothetical: Can the Z6III "keep up with" the 34MP DX Z8?

As to Price. My D300 was $1600 in 2007. The D500, 9 years later, in 2016, was $2000. Why wouldn't Nikon expect us to pay $2500 or progressively more, in 2022.

But, water under the bridge. The market is mostly gone, and I would be very surprised if such a camera is offered by Nikon.

Just my 2¢

Arnie
 
.... these arguments are based on the fact that the Z8 is the equal to the D500 on pixel density .... therefore we don't need a Z500

... but what D500 users have really been asking for is a higher density (30Mp) sensor ....

....... no current Nikon camera can equal that density .... for that you would need a 60 Mp + sensor ..... then you run into rolling shutter/ buffer depth/price and all the other limitations associated with high speed data streams that the APSc sensor is better suited for ...

Canon has shown the market is certainly there .... and when Nikon has fulfilled it's goals in the FF MLC, the hole in the APSc market (2 years or so) will still remain .......

I don't see Nikon leaving the door open to Canon in the significant birding world ....
 
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Any rumor about having a D500 replacement?
No. The D500 didn't sell that well
Yet to read the actual sales data demonstrating poor sales, yet the myth gets exhumed yet again
So I remember reading that on Hogan's site, and it's the type of thing he's generally accurate on.
"well" is a subjective term, and I can't quantify how Nikon would measure that.
Having said all of that, your chart is persuasive.
If you visit the photosynthesis site (http://www.photosynthesis.co.nz/nikon/camera.html), and review the crowdsourced data on D500 serial numbers out in the world, you'll see that roughly 200,000 units have sold. It's not a small number, especially considering it was priced at $2K at introduction.
And Roland's database is not only a subsample but it's biased towards Anglophone countries, with Asia clearly undersampled for Nikon products.

As importantly, through the years when doomsayers were forecasting Nikon's economic demise, the sales of Pro Hobbyist products were steady. D500 sales with long lenses have held their own in earning profits for the Imaging Division.

Arguably, the r&d for the D500 rode heavily on what Nikon engineering had already invested in the D5 Autofocus engine and other aspects, EXPEED5 processor included. Reselling this D5 technology was a shrewd tactic in Nikon's part.

As for the 20mp D500 sensor, Nikon must have sold untold copies in the Z50, Zfc and continuing in the Z50 II

It was the Budget DSLRs that tanked and especially the compact point&shoot camera market. Nikon worked fast to shut down and write off these production lines. This article goes deeper into the corporate details

 
.... these arguments are based on the fact that the Z8 is the equal to the D500 on pixel density .... therefore we don't need a Z500

... but what D500 users have really been asking for is a higher density (30Mp) sensor ....

....... no current Nikon camera can equal that density .... for that you would need a 60 Mp + sensor ..... then you run into rolling shutter/ buffer depth/price and all the other limitations associated with high speed data streams that the APSc sensor is better suited for ...

Canon has shown the market is certainly there .... and when Nikon has fulfilled it's goals in the FF MLC, the hole in the APSc market (2 years or so) will still remain .......

I don't see Nikon leaving the door open to Canon in the significant birding world ....
It's too clumsy with this forum software, (unlike BCG's) to try quoting multiple posts.

However, I agree with the points by @arniebook and @Bill Ferris and others above.... that the strengths of the D500 include:
  • The Z50II is not the D500 "replacement", the Z6III even less so, despite both being excellent cameras with strong values at their respective prices;
  • Yet another selling point of the D500 includes its use of the ENEL18 batteries, where a gripped Z8 fails;
  • The Z8 is too expensive for many, as good a camera that it is;
  • DX form factor leverages optimum Pixels/Duck, particularly with longer focal length FX glass;
  • All the better if Nikon releases a faster readout DX sensor at 24mp or ideally higher resolution;
  • The possibility /feasibility of Nikon designing a D500 "Strict Replacement" in the Z System is unlikely;
  • Nevertheless, a Baby Z9 is entirely feasible with a smaller/ shrunken form factor, or a smaller Baby Z8 with optional grip for housing the ENEL18d;
  • Using the ENEL18d battery would be a shrewd tactic, especially in Mirrorless tech. This is provided Nikon tamps down the total weight of the camera;
  • There must be a significant population in the birder guild, also other genre's, looking for a lighter, Pro Mirrorless on the lighter FX Telephotos.... 400 f4.5S, 600 PF, 28-400, 70-180 f2.8, also 300 PF, 500 PF, as well as the excellent Z-mount 180-600 that updates on the popular and successful 200-500 f5.6E;
  • As Thom Hogan has argued, Nikon's lack of a D500 update in the Z System has likely bled Nikon owners to other systems
The D5 Triumvirate is a tough act to repeat for Nikon. Nevertheless, the gap in the lineup of the Z9 and Z8 is obvious... The D5/D6 flagships, with D850, are approximated as "updates" respectively by the Z9 and Z8. But the DX D500 Zed update is MIA
 
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Agreed with others who say the Z6III is the best Z approximate to the D500. You can’t be overly literal in your expectations or hopes. The D500 was a relatively inexpensive, great AF, lower res, fast body. The Z6III is each of those things, and has a lot to offer that the D500 couldn’t keep up with.
I respectfully do not agree ... except that, of course the 10 year old D500 can't keep up with the Z6III ... But, that's why it’s called an "upgrade".
No sh!t.
The Z6III is not a Pro Body in the sense of the D5 and D500, or the Z8 and Z9. And, 24MP on a Full frame sensor is good, but not as dense as 21MP on a DX sensor.
The mental gymnastics you have to do to put a D500 in the same, even roughly defined class as both a D5 and Z8 & Z9, while also maintaining the Z6III has no place in the line up… truly incredible.
The 21MP D500 was built to be THE DX version of the Flagship 21MP D5, and as the top APSC camera for Sports and Wildlife, more than lived up to it. At the time, ONLY the D5 could "keep up with it". The Nikon Flagship is now the Z9. The Z8 is a Z9 without the built in vertical grip. So ... D5 > D500 ... Z9 (or Z8) > !?

If you were around when the12MP D300 (the DX version of the full frame (FX) 12MP D3) was ready for an upgrade replacement, you will know the FX D4 was released without a DX version D400. Some D300 shooters left the Nikon brand, while others opted for the more consumer level Dxxxx line. Nikon, then, was sure to announce the D5 and D500 in tandem in Jan of 2016. Nikon dropped the Pro DX line after the D500. So shooters have been looking for a Z DX version of the Flagship Z9 since 2021 ... which never came, and likely never will, and the result is many D500 shooters have skipped to brands that have exactly what they want, or are taking the lower level Z Bodies, with only a few Enthusiast and Professional shooters opting for the Flagship(s). (many professionals used and still use the D500)
Your post reads to me like such a narrow use case and such selective expectations. I would bet the pool of professionals still using the D500 is tiny. I’d caution against confusing demanding amateurs, active on forums, with actual pros. Of the dwindling number of pros I actually know still discussing SLRs, it’s all talk about the D850.

To invert your assumptions and offer a different read of Nikon’s recent history… in contrast to birders, for anyone filling the frame with something human sized and relatively short distances (typical human distances, as opposed to bird), the D100, D200 and D300 were at best mediocre bodies that kept “the Nikon brand” just barely alive in the context of pro-am digital SLRs.

I was around and owned the D200 and D300. They were the “and also Nikon” bodies, as in “everyone is shooting on the Canon 5D. And also Nikon still makes cameras.” It was rough.

The D700 was eventually *the* camera for anyone like me, looking for a FF sensor in what was essentially, broadly speaking the F100 body type. No amount of weather sealing or button placement puts an APS-C camera on the table - it doesn’t even make it into the room. In fact, I won’t get the exact spec off the top of my head but IIRC the D200s viewfinder coverage was pretty bad, cutting out a considerable portion of the frame. For people like me, designing a pro workflow, combined with tepid AF and already frustrating DX FOV, that made the D200 regrettable at best.

I have zero interest or need to chase pixel density past a certain threshold because I’m almost never shooting longer than 135mm, my subjects are human sized, and I’m cropping little. A much bigger priority, and core for considering something a “Pro Body” is to have my lens FOV behave “as it should”, inheriting the proper characteristics of what you expect attaching a 28, 50, 85 or 105 on your camera and not restricted to the narrower FOV of a DX crop. If I can get that and a viewfinder approaching 100% coverage, that’s a good baseline for pro work. To put an even finer point on it: 35mm aspect and FOV was a resented stepchild of “real photography” at one time, with working professionals scoffing at the format in comparison to large format. Expecting to do pro work with even greater compromises required by APS-C is for some a non starter.
The Pro Body speed and features are important to D500 shooters, as many have been using similar bodies since the D100, D200, and D300. An upgrade in resolution (regarding the 21MP sensor) for Nikon DX is long overdue, as well. Only the Z8 and Z9 approximate those criteria, and yet, are still not quite the pixel density of the 21MP D500.
You claim a pro DX body is long overdue - for you, sure. For Nikon? Doubtful. But you write it with such entitlement, like Nikon made you an unfulfilled promise. I’ll never understand where this attitude comes from.
To put it as simply as I can ... as an upgrade replacement for the D500, shooters would like a Z8-like Body, Speed, and features, with a 30-37MP stacked DX sensor (like Fuji XH2s, Canon R7). Why shouldn't we expect a 1.75x progression in resolution? 12 is to 21 as 21 is to 37
And to put it as simply as I can:

If pixel density and an APS-C crop are your core needs, without being overly literal, the Z8 gets you there. But if you’re instead looking at general price/performance ROI, approaching the $2k release price of the D500, with pro controls, the Z6III is the camera.

Otherwise, the single most compelling feature is that these cameras exist.

The whole approach of “a Z body D500 replacement should be an APS-C FOV, same exact or greater pixel density than the D500 (while magically, I assume, sidestepping the sensor read problems associated with doing so), pro build & controls, cost less than the Z8’s $3k and only then will I be happy” pipe dream is just… outside what I feel is sensible. It’s a collection of restrictive, choose your own specs that play well to some on a discussion forum, but don’t seem to be tethered to any reality I know.
Hypothetical: Can the Z6III "keep up with" the 34MP DX Z8?
Hypothetical: what kind of pictures can you take with a pretend camera? Otherwise… depends on the context, workflow and goals. For my uses, absolutely. In some ways the Z6III pulls ahead.
As to Price. My D300 was $1600 in 2007. The D500, 9 years later, in 2016, was $2000. Why wouldn't Nikon expect us to pay $2500 or progressively more, in 2022.
I have no idea. I’m not even clear on who this question is for.
But, water under the bridge. The market is mostly gone, and I would be very surprised if such a camera is offered by Nikon.
Then why waste time writing about it…
Just my 2¢

Arnie
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http://jimlafferty.com
Evocative beats academic.
 
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Do you really think Nikon can build and sell a z8 with a smaller sensor for $1,000 less? The processor, the ibis unit, batteries, view finder, etc are all the same but it’s magically $1,000 cheaper to make?
something tells me it’s $200-$300 less than a z8 and not worth making. A buyer might as well get a z8 and have ff and crop mode options. Why would a DX version be so much cheaper other than historically they did sell DX for less?
 
Do you really think Nikon can build and sell a z8 with a smaller sensor for $1,000 less? The processor, the ibis unit, batteries, view finder, etc are all the same but it’s magically $1,000 cheaper to make?
In January 2016, Nikon introduced the D500 @ $2000, along with the D5. A year and half later, they introduced the 45MP, FX D850 @ $3300. I would say the main difference between the D850 and D500 is FX vs DX. Otherwise the features are very similar with essentially the same AF system, same battery, same memory card slots ….

The thing is that the D500 existed in 2016 because there was no FX body with similar pixel density. Once the D850 was available, plenty of my friends dumped their D500 and replaced it with the D850.
something tells me it’s $200-$300 less than a z8 and not worth making. A buyer might as well get a z8 and have ff and crop mode options. Why would a DX version be so much cheaper other than historically they did sell DX for less?
The problem now is that the Z8 and Z9 have already existed for a while, close to 4 years for the Z9. And the Z8 was introduced @ $4000. Can Nikon cut $1500 or so from that and introduce a DX version @ $2500? And would that be too expensive? How many can they sell and compete against the many used Z8, Z9 already available? Another issue is that Nikon would need a stacked DX sensor; developing one won’t be cheap.
 
Any rumor about having a D500 replacement?
No. The D500 didn't sell that well
Yet to read the actual sales data demonstrating poor sales, yet the myth gets exhumed yet again
So I remember reading that on Hogan's site, and it's the type of thing he's generally accurate on.
"well" is a subjective term, and I can't quantify how Nikon would measure that.
Having said all of that, your chart is persuasive.
If you visit the photosynthesis site (http://www.photosynthesis.co.nz/nikon/camera.html), and review the crowdsourced data on D500 serial numbers out in the world, you'll see that roughly 200,000 units have sold. It's not a small number, especially considering it was priced at $2K at introduction.
Thanks Bill, as always your post is insightful.
My read from the information is that the D850 sold almost 1.8 times the bodies. So D500 ~228K, D850 ~404K, if I counted correctly.
That doesn't mean the the D500 was inconsequential, and perhaps my "didn't sell that well" is in absolute, vs proportional, terms not correct, but it does mean that Nikon could look at the ratio and decide to not do a modern version of the D500 (which I would think of as a baby Z8, a Z800).

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"THINK" - Watson
 
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That sounds like what I meant. The D500 allowed them to use the DX and FF lenses like the 200-500 and get out to 750 with full sensor resolution on a high end DX body.
One could get the same thing on a D850 in DX mode, having the best of body worlds. The D850 was a bit bigger and heaver than a D500, but in my hands the difference was not noticeable, especially when paired with something like a 200-500mm.

Which is why I eventually switched up from a D500 to a D850.
 

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