egk4260 wrote:….
The Catch 22, what level of ongoing interest based on purchases of Pentax 17 cameras do they need to see by people who don’t really want it, in order to develop the camera those same people actually want… and will purchase?
So, if I understand correctly, you're saying that higher tier camera sales are drven by people who bought some cheaper version of the good and were disappointed.
No, I am referring to a statement by Ricoh in an interview at a French photo event in October. It was more of a rhetorical question on my part.
”After a very
positive start,
momentum slowed over the summer holidays and back-to-school period,
then fell off at the end of the summer.”
“We’re
currently waiting to see if demand picks up again, but it’s too early to tell if this product will be a long-term success or if there will be a successor product.”
The original French version has the word as successeur, which is as ambiguous as the original - it is left unclear whether they are talking about a direct successor to the 17 (another "17") or an entirely new camera under the film project.
It is my impression that most people are hoping for a 35mm SLR, with a minority going for a 35mm compact. The latter might be more likely seeing that Ricoh is already a little skittish. On the other hand, the USP of a 35mm film compact is already slightly eroded by the existence of the 17. I think if Ricoh want to be serious about this mission, they should get people into the idea of changing lenses, maybe with a relatively inexpensive system à la mode of the Pentax Q (re-imagined with film, obviously).
https://www.canonrumors.com/ricoh-interview-sales-of-slrs-are-on-a-downward-trend/
Who are these customers that represent that required increased demand?
If I really want the new 35mm film camera which
might be developed if demand returns for the half frame am I assuming others will resume purchasing the half frame in sufficient numbers to placate Ricoh concerns or will reaching those sufficient numbers realistically mean that I must join the half frame club if I ever wish to see that next membership tier?
Since we like to play crystal ball, let me say this - the Pentax 17 is now going for $499 USD. So this is a price point they can do without making a loss. If they could make a 17 "lite" and bring it down to $299 without sacrificing too much on quality, they could sell editions: soft focus, HDF, ND, starburst. Give them exteriors that match what is happening inside the camera so you can have them sitting next to your door and just grab the one you want as you leave. This would get people into collecting the set. I think at $299, it could reach a lot of people. Then top it off with a higher-priced edition with "swirly" lens.
There's a much more detailed discussion to be had here about user expectations, light leaks, film lifespan, focal lengths, production costs, margins, and development costs. But Ricoh have repeatedly emphasised their body of market research. I hope they asked the right questions.
I'm also just about expecting Sigma to enter this market with an optically stabilised film compact. That might be a world first, unless someone can correct me.
