The dying of the DSLR

In the natural world we hear the phrase “survival of the fittest”, where in reality it is actually survival of those that reproduce; not necessarily the fittest. In the world of dogs we see many breeds, specifically bred to emphasize certain desired traits. It doesn’t make sense to breed large numbers of Shar-Pei if people want Labrador Retrievers.

In the camera world arguments will persist, based on personal preferences, as to superior technology; the cameras that survive or thrive will be the cameras that sell. Camera manufacturers will continue to emphasize the features sufficient numbers of purchasers seek; be that viewfinder, size, sensor resolution, brand, speed, video, etc.
 
To me it is an unprocessed RAW file with no post processing. In film days or film now, it is an unaltered negative or positive.
you are either one of the few "purist" or you are forgetting that, for example, plenty of work went on in the darkroom in the "film days" and does still go on.
Nowadays you can digitize your film images and do all that dodging and burning in Photoshop. You no longer have to do it again for each print.

Some of the well-known photographers of the film era did not do their own darkroom work. (I always did, but then I'm not well known.)

Don

Don
 
I shouldn't need to tell you that mechanical systems can be designed to operate at very low temperatures. Also high temperatures and anywhere in between, ask Airbus or Boeing.
I didn't mean to suggest that a DSLR would be unreliable in cold weather. My response was simply a response to the claim about someone preferring to use a DSLR in Antarctica and had nothing to do with how well a camera would perform in such an environment. I merely wanted to point out that a mirrorless would be at least as reliable as a mirrorless in cold weather.

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Tom
 
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Interesting K3-III has -10C cold weather rating whereas the mentioned Sony is rated to only 0C. Of course any of them are routinely used at lower temps. The Nikon Z are rated to -10C but the user in this report from the Arctic, rather than Antarctic, was using and storing them outside at -30C without difficulty.
https://www.squiver.com/blog/nikon-z8-field-report/

I personally would not want to be out at -30C with any camera! Sounds like the weak link was frozen fingers rather than camera tech.
Possibly because I have lived my whole life in an area that has cold and snowy winters Antarctica is the last place I would want to visit. Maybe if someone paid me a large sum of money :-) .

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Tom
 
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The only reason mirrorless are taking over is because there is little choice to the consumer! If Canon released a 5D MKV I bet they would sell a ton of them. I have little interest in replacing my DSLR's.
I loved my 5DIV, and I still love my 5Ds, and I'm still a fan of optical viewfinders. But today I'm not sure I would spend the $3500+ on a new 5 series DSLR only to take the step backward in autofocus and burst rates. I'm sure many feel the same. There is a dwindling contingent that still want a new DSLR, but that number is likely not enough to make the cost of producing one a viable business move.

What WOULD interest me greatly though is a DSLR camera that has an interchangeable slide-on viewfinder similar to the Fuji GFX 100, but make one that could swap between an OVF and an EFV in the same camera. Put on the EVF and go 'mirror up' with state of the art mirrorless tech. Or swap to the optical finder and go "DSLR mode". Your choice.

Hasselblad made removable optical finders for decades, and now we have removable EVFs. So the tech is there to make a camera with both features. But I doubt anybody will.
 
I think it will be a long long time before DSLR's are dead. I suspect there will still be people using them long beyond when most of us are pushing up daisies. The are the last segment of largely mechanical cameras in existence. Even though the processing and capture elements are electronic, the physical working parts in many are almost completely mechanical and that alone along with the optical view finders will drive some folks to continue to cause a demand. Look what an old Leica mechanical camera will set you back today. DSLR's are going to be around a long time, at least as long as the best of them continue to function.
 
I think it will be a long long time before DSLR's are dead. I suspect there will still be people using them long beyond when most of us are pushing up daisies. The are the last segment of largely mechanical cameras in existence. Even though the processing and capture elements are electronic, the physical working parts in many are almost completely mechanical and that alone along with the optical view finders will drive some folks to continue to cause a demand. Look what an old Leica mechanical camera will set you back today. DSLR's are going to be around a long time, at least as long as the best of them continue to function.
Many people who are forecasting the demise of the DSLR aren't actually talking about its demise, they are talking about the end of production and development. They aren't the same thing. I have said before and it bears repeating, the DSLR will finally die when batteries cease to be available. Given that some can be powered by AA cells that is probably a long way in the future.
 
In the natural world we hear the phrase “survival of the fittest”, where in reality it is actually survival of those that reproduce; not necessarily the fittest. In the world of dogs we see many breeds, specifically bred to emphasize certain desired traits. It doesn’t make sense to breed large numbers of Shar-Pei if people want Labrador Retrievers.

In the camera world arguments will persist, based on personal preferences, as to superior technology; the cameras that survive or thrive will be the cameras that sell. Camera manufacturers will continue to emphasize the features sufficient numbers of purchasers seek; be that viewfinder, size, sensor resolution, brand, speed, video, etc.
Survival of the fittest means: survival of the best adapted to an actual situation. And depending on the situation, the definition of "fittest" may change. There are also many different niches at the same time, which means that there are many fittest, each of them being best adopted to their particular niche.

This is the situation in nature (I am biologist) and this is the situation for a market situation. There will be a DSLR niche in future for sure and Pentax will be leader within, as no company will be able to keep two line (DSLR and ML) at high end at the same time. However, the question will be: is this niche large enough for a small company to survive within it? Actually, Pentax has also successful smaller rugged cameras and the small but great and well accepted Ricoh camera in their portfolio. The addition of cameras with black and white sensors is unique (if you want to spend a lot of money for Leica) and seems to be successful. I do believe that they will make it! However, main drivers for progress in camera business seems to be the special parts like sensors that are not build by Pentax but larger companies like Sony.
 
To me it is an unprocessed RAW file with no post processing. In film days or film now, it is an unaltered negative or positive.
you are either one of the few "purist" or you are forgetting that, for example, plenty of work went on in the darkroom in the "film days" and does still go on.
Nowadays you can digitize your film images and do all that dodging and burning in Photoshop. You no longer have to do it again for each print.

Some of the well-known photographers of the film era did not do their own darkroom work. (I always did, but then I'm not well known.)

Don

Don
Yes...my point was that film was not as "pure" as some like to think it was.
 
I think it will be a long long time before DSLR's are dead. I suspect there will still be people using them long beyond when most of us are pushing up daisies. The are the last segment of largely mechanical cameras in existence. Even though the processing and capture elements are electronic, the physical working parts in many are almost completely mechanical and that alone along with the optical view finders will drive some folks to continue to cause a demand. Look what an old Leica mechanical camera will set you back today. DSLR's are going to be around a long time, at least as long as the best of them continue to function.
Of course. My long-discontinued Sony SLT A99ii still works great so while it's no longer being sold it's not dead.
 
In the natural world we hear the phrase “survival of the fittest”, where in reality it is actually survival of those that reproduce; not necessarily the fittest. In the world of dogs we see many breeds, specifically bred to emphasize certain desired traits. It doesn’t make sense to breed large numbers of Shar-Pei if people want Labrador Retrievers.

In the camera world arguments will persist, based on personal preferences, as to superior technology; the cameras that survive or thrive will be the cameras that sell. Camera manufacturers will continue to emphasize the features sufficient numbers of purchasers seek; be that viewfinder, size, sensor resolution, brand, speed, video, etc.
Survival of the fittest means: survival of the best adapted to an actual situation. And depending on the situation, the definition of "fittest" may change. There are also many different niches at the same time, which means that there are many fittest, each of them being best adopted to their particular niche.

This is the situation in nature (I am biologist) and this is the situation for a market situation. There will be a DSLR niche in future for sure and Pentax will be leader within, as no company will be able to keep two line (DSLR and ML) at high end at the same time. However, the question will be: is this niche large enough for a small company to survive within it? Actually, Pentax has also successful smaller rugged cameras and the small but great and well accepted Ricoh camera in their portfolio. The addition of cameras with black and white sensors is unique (if you want to spend a lot of money for Leica) and seems to be successful. I do believe that they will make it! However, main drivers for progress in camera business seems to be the special parts like sensors that are not build by Pentax but larger companies like Sony.
I will defer to your expertise as a biologist, my point being that no matter how well adapted to an actual situation, survival is only possible if that adapted species reproduces. Pentax has been banking on this only producer mantra for a number of years yet is seeing a shrinking portion of a shrinking DSLR each year, less than 1% of the 2023 DSLR market even as the “only producer”. Pentax has only mid or late cycle DSLR models, just like their competitors; but unlike their competitors has not yet offered confirmation there will be no next generation DSLR. Ricoh is over four times the size of Nikon, they just put very little investment into the Ricoh imaging division. As someone else pointed out the (Pentax) DSLR is not dying, it is the design of new models that is dying, or more realistically has already died. And as I have suggested, you can still buy brand new excellent DSLR cameras from all three current producers and be all set for many years even though there will be no new releases from any of them.
 
In the natural world we hear the phrase “survival of the fittest”, where in reality it is actually survival of those that reproduce; not necessarily the fittest. In the world of dogs we see many breeds, specifically bred to emphasize certain desired traits. It doesn’t make sense to breed large numbers of Shar-Pei if people want Labrador Retrievers.

In the camera world arguments will persist, based on personal preferences, as to superior technology; the cameras that survive or thrive will be the cameras that sell. Camera manufacturers will continue to emphasize the features sufficient numbers of purchasers seek; be that viewfinder, size, sensor resolution, brand, speed, video, etc.
Survival of the fittest means: survival of the best adapted to an actual situation. And depending on the situation, the definition of "fittest" may change. There are also many different niches at the same time, which means that there are many fittest, each of them being best adopted to their particular niche.

This is the situation in nature (I am biologist) and this is the situation for a market situation. There will be a DSLR niche in future for sure and Pentax will be leader within, as no company will be able to keep two line (DSLR and ML) at high end at the same time. However, the question will be: is this niche large enough for a small company to survive within it? Actually, Pentax has also successful smaller rugged cameras and the small but great and well accepted Ricoh camera in their portfolio. The addition of cameras with black and white sensors is unique (if you want to spend a lot of money for Leica) and seems to be successful. I do believe that they will make it! However, main drivers for progress in camera business seems to be the special parts like sensors that are not build by Pentax but larger companies like Sony.
I will defer to your expertise as a biologist, my point being that no matter how well adapted to an actual situation, survival is only possible if that adapted species reproduces. Pentax has been banking on this only producer mantra for a number of years yet is seeing a shrinking portion of a shrinking DSLR each year, less than 1% of the 2023 DSLR market even as the “only producer”. Pentax has only mid or late cycle DSLR models, just like their competitors; but unlike their competitors has not yet offered confirmation there will be no next generation DSLR. Ricoh is over four times the size of Nikon, they just put very little investment into the Ricoh imaging division. As someone else pointed out the (Pentax) DSLR is not dying, it is the design of new models that is dying, or more realistically has already died. And as I have suggested, you can still buy brand new excellent DSLR cameras from all three current producers and be all set for many years even though there will be no new releases from any of them.
It can be argued that the best swords ever made are being made right now but in small numbers and will most likely never see combat.
 
My DSLR still works fine.





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It was a citation from a photographer who has Pentax and Sony as gear.
Okay, so it's a personal preference for ergonomics. I would agree with him - I don't care for the ergonomics of Sony bodies at all, but again, it's just personal preference.
With the Pentax in your hands, you know you have a reliable working horse that feels solid and well-designed. The Sony maybe even superior in terms of technical options. However, if I should have an expedition through a rainforest or Antarctic, I know which brand to select ...
Well, I shoot Nikon, you know, the brand NASA chose to use for their missions. I'll take them over anyone else when it comes to reliability. But if someone isn't happy with their ergonomics, their lens choices, or the way their designers design their lenses, so bet it - personal preference.
Regarding lens design, there was an area with true gems - and for Pentax some of these lenses are still build - just think of the "three amigos": FA 31, FA 43, FA77.

The new developments are optimized products from computer calculations. They all deliver almost sterile, error free results. However, are they created as true and honest craftsmanship, can we see them as "masterpieces"? Looking at the lenses you can buy:
Yes, Pentax came out with some nice lenses. So did Olympus in the OM series of days, So did Minolta in the SRT-101 days - some of those old Rokkor X from that era were quite nice (the Minolta bodies were horrendously unreliable, so I passed on that system). So did Nikon of course - probably the most famous of the older mounts, and so did even Canon, not to mention the Contax/Zeiss partnership for their film SLR, and probably others I'm forgetting.

As your "computer calculations" comment. Do you honestly think if the designers from the 70's had the software (like Zemax, Code V, or the proprietary systems the big players use), with the ability to iterate design options vastly more than they could in the manual calculation days, that they wouldn't use them? Certainly they would have. Things change. I can't speak for current day Pentax lenses because the brand is totally irrelevant to me. I've not seen a Pentax shooter in the field in TEN years.

But I can speak to Nikon, or Zeiss, and even Sigma to some degree, because I've used a lot of lenses from those makers. Nikon today makes some lenses that are tuned away from "perfection" in some cases to provide better rendering for specific use cases; almost always people. The 50/1.2S, for example, is not quite as sharp at higher resolution frequencies at the 24-70/2.8S, a zoom, is, at, say, F/4, at 8 feet. Why is that? Because the designer, in the inevitable and unavoidable navigation of trade-offs in the process of lens design, even with modern computing power, chose to trade a bit of that off to gain something elsewhere, because he felt the lens would primarily be used for people, whereas the designers of the zoom realized it would likely be an all purpose lens and tuned the design differently - all with the aid of computers. The software is just a tool; no different than a slide rule or the room of "Math Girls" Nikon had who did the ray tracing calculations in the very long ago days. Looking at other brands - the Zeiss 85/1.4 Otus and the 85/1.4 Milvus (both made and probably designed by Cosina) are different - they are pretty similar stopped down, but the Milvus was specifically designed with people and bokeh as the basis for a lot of the design decisions. Both modern day, high performing optics designed with modern era software. I can go on. Sigma with it's art series - the original 35/1.4 Art and 50/1.4 Art rendered differently if one is aware enough to realize it. Both modern era lenses designed with modern era software, yet the designers chose different paths. And so on.

Sure - some designs aren't like that, but to infer that there is no designer-led-input into the design is false. The software is just a tool - it allows for more iterations of the design, as I mentioned earlier, and the big players (probably not Pentax but I don't know - whomever they farm the designs out probably has it though) even have software that models bokeh and OOF transition, which is impressive. So a modern day designer doesn't need the secret notebooks from the master as much as they used to, but they still have input into the design. The computer doesn't make the final decision; it guides the final decision. Nothing wrong with that. (And none of this takes away from the great designers of old like Hirakawa (Pentax) or Wakimoto (Nikon) or the long list of German designers who worked for Leica and Zeiss either)

There was an excellent post by Joseph W. a while back that explained a lot of what's changed, and if I remember it correctly, we have the software that allows for more design flexibility, and we also have better manufacturing capability that allows a design to be manufactured consistently with less variance than was possible in the old days. So we have improvements in the design aspect and in the opto-mechanical aspect. Of course the designers from old days would have utilized these capabilities if they had them. They'd be idiots if they didn't.

As for the look of lenses today: Times change. Resolution is much higher. The demands of digital sensors mean that for those who really want to extract everything the sensor is capable of, *lenses had to be made better*. One thing that also occurs with the higher resolution devices is the *user* has to be up to task - sloppy technique, inferior support system, bad atmosphere, poor post processing, etc, all will matter more now than it did in the days of Kodacolor II and your spotmatic F. Even in the film days, we saw a glimpse of this - I remember when I shot my first roll of Ektar 25 print film, which was much higher resolving than the rest of the color C-41 films of the day. I had to improve *my* technique to really see what the film could do.

So that's really my disagreement with your post. "Honest Photography" isn't a phrase that makes sense, and almost tends to look down upon progress. I really hate absolute statements that aren't true. Modern lenses are not all bad just because they are of this era. No single manufacturer has the exclusive ability to make "the best lenses period" over all other manufacturers in all focal lengths, no matter how much the marketing might lead you to believe. Personal preference is personal preference. If you like the feel of camera B and another guy/girl likes camera C, so what - but let's leave ill defined terms like "honest photography" out of it.

Off my soapbox.
 
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Still on the lookout for a cheap around £150 1Dsmk3.

I give a brief hurraah when I see a dslr is stills only. Only dslr with video I've had is Sony a350 ccd.

Not to mention lenses overall cheaper than for current mirrorless.
 
Still on the lookout for a cheap around £150 1Dsmk3.

I give a brief hurraah when I see a dslr is stills only. Only dslr with video I've had is Sony a350 ccd.

Not to mention lenses overall cheaper than for current mirrorless.
The Video buttons on my D5s are reconfigured as Mode buttons to match the layout of the F5. The Live view buttons are deactivated. No video here.
 
In the natural world we hear the phrase “survival of the fittest”, where in reality it is actually survival of those that reproduce; not necessarily the fittest. In the world of dogs we see many breeds, specifically bred to emphasize certain desired traits. It doesn’t make sense to breed large numbers of Shar-Pei if people want Labrador Retrievers.

In the camera world arguments will persist, based on personal preferences, as to superior technology; the cameras that survive or thrive will be the cameras that sell. Camera manufacturers will continue to emphasize the features sufficient numbers of purchasers seek; be that viewfinder, size, sensor resolution, brand, speed, video, etc.
Survival of the fittest means: survival of the best adapted to an actual situation. And depending on the situation, the definition of "fittest" may change. There are also many different niches at the same time, which means that there are many fittest, each of them being best adopted to their particular niche.

This is the situation in nature (I am biologist) and this is the situation for a market situation. There will be a DSLR niche in future for sure and Pentax will be leader within, as no company will be able to keep two line (DSLR and ML) at high end at the same time. However, the question will be: is this niche large enough for a small company to survive within it? Actually, Pentax has also successful smaller rugged cameras and the small but great and well accepted Ricoh camera in their portfolio. The addition of cameras with black and white sensors is unique (if you want to spend a lot of money for Leica) and seems to be successful. I do believe that they will make it! However, main drivers for progress in camera business seems to be the special parts like sensors that are not build by Pentax but larger companies like Sony.
I will defer to your expertise as a biologist, my point being that no matter how well adapted to an actual situation, survival is only possible if that adapted species reproduces. Pentax has been banking on this only producer mantra for a number of years yet is seeing a shrinking portion of a shrinking DSLR each year, less than 1% of the 2023 DSLR market even as the “only producer”. Pentax has only mid or late cycle DSLR models, just like their competitors; but unlike their competitors has not yet offered confirmation there will be no next generation DSLR.
Reproduction is important. Reproduction means the capability to be present in the next generation. If there is development in their market, competitors have to stay attractive to consumers of that generation. They have to keep their offer state of art. If there is no new development in this market, they may be able to sell decades old technique to new users. If they manage to sell enough gear to their customers, they stay alive.

The VW beetle was almost in the form it stayed same till the last one was produced in 1933. They changed technology when better one was available. But the form roughly stayed the same. The last VW beatle was build 2003 in Mexico.

We have to see how the market will develop. If the DSLR competitors leave the niche, Pentax has this technique on its own. The majority will prefer ML and Pentax will not bring new technique to their models at the speed of ML makers. However, DSLR is special and I think there will be always people who love to have a camera where they see their object though a mirror without monitor in between. There will be people who love mechanical technology and sturdy build cameras without options they will never use.

This is guessing about the future. However, there is a chance and I hope Pentax will try to fill and keep this niche.
Ricoh is over four times the size of Nikon, they just put very little investment into the Ricoh imaging division. As someone else pointed out the (Pentax) DSLR is not dying, it is the design of new models that is dying, or more realistically has already died.
Pentax has a strong position in Japan. People like it. It is a prestige project for Ricoh. When BMW bought Mini, they received a legendary brand in their portfolio. And they manged to develop it offering products outside their core business successfully. And this way, we have cars diving around in Europe that look different but well known from old design templates.

There are always products for people who do not go with the crowd. The companies behind these products must keep the balance between selling enough to keep on living but selling not so much, that their products look like middle-of-the-road.

I think, Pentax is a brand name that shines and there are big options within. I hope Ricoh understands that they have a tiny little brilliant in their crown that is worth to keep on shining.
And as I have suggested, you can still buy brand new excellent DSLR cameras from all three current producers and be all set for many years even though there will be no new releases from any of them.
 

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