when to expect Z7 III?

Between tomorrow and never. There's been no public rumors or info about one.

I jjust mean what is the interval between models based on the Z series?

systemguy said:

I jjust mean what is the interval between models based on the Z series?

Click to expand...

Insufficient data.

The only Z body updates we've had are:

• Z6 -> Z6II: 2 years
• Z6II -> Z6III: 4 years
• Z7->Z7II: 2 years
• Z50->Z50II: 5 years

The Z5 and Z7II have gone 4 years without an update, while the Z9 and Zfc have gone 3 years.

I don't think there's enough information there to say anything other than that the intervals tend to be longer than they were for DSLRs at the peak of their sales.

systemguy said:

I jjust mean what is the interval between models based on the Z series?

Click to expand...

We cannot make assumptions based on the time between each model in each line, as it is widely inconsistent.

The Z6-Z6II gap is around 2 years (2018-2020) but the Z6II-Z6III gap is around 4 years (2020-2024)

The Z7-Z7II gap is identical to the Z6 as it's essentially the same camera with a different sensor, and both were relesed that the same time for both releases.

The Z50-Z50II gap is 5 years (2019-2024)

Every other camera in the Z range is the only one of its line for now (Zfc, Z30, Zf, Z8, Z9)

I think looking more precisely at "does a Z7III make sense for Nikon to release now" makes more sense, and the answer is : not really.

Pricing wise, the Z8 would be a little too close (especially with regular sales and refurbs), not mentionning the fact that a lot of people expect the Z7III to have the same kind of upgrades the Z6III got vs Z6II : improved speed, AF and video. That's essentially a Z8.

On top of that, no rumor confirmed nor denied that a Z7III was in the works at all.

My guess is that we're not seeing one for a little while.

I'm seeing on-line ads from Nikon with $1k off the Z7II. That's a significant sale. Can that be considered an indication they're clearing stock to make room for the Z7III?

aufinger said:

I'm seeing on-line ads from Nikon with $1k off the Z7II. That's a significant sale. Can that be considered an indication they're clearing stock to make room for the Z7III?

Click to expand...

This is also very speculative, not impossible, but unlikely.

More likely is the price pressure that a Z7II is now subject to.

Even if the Z7II officially runs as Gen2, it is ultimately a revised Gen1 with regard to the strongest points of criticism at the launch of the Z6/Z7.

So if we are honest, it is the status of 2018, with a few adjustments.

The MRSP of €3199 in the EU and $3000 in the United States is therefore no longer enforceable.

Accordingly, the price has to be adjusted significantly downwards, otherwise a Z7II @ MRSP will gather /collect lots of dust in the shelves, when you can already get a Z8 for a small surcharge, or a Z6III for significantly less money.

So I would interpret the price reduction more in the direction of supply and demand, and the Z7II has a hard time if it is not offered at a massive discount.

The camera should now primarily be of interest to very price-conscious buyers with an appetite for 45MP, who can live with the technical limitations of the Gen1/Gen2 in terms of read out speed, rolling shutter, AF tracking/subject detection and FPS.

But I can't reach them with the MRSP prices of the Z7II, which are no longer appropriate for technology that is effectively 6 years old, in a market environment where the street price of a fully stacked Z8 powerhouse is already very close to the MRSP of a Z7II.

This is how I would classify the large discounts on the Z7II and not as an indication of an imminent Z7III.

systemguy said:

No announcement or hint from Nikon but when would one expect Nikon to replace the Z7 II? with the Z7 III?

Click to expand...

No one outside of Nikon management knows the answer to that question. I'm sure there are people at Nikon working on a potential Z7III. Maybe several different variations. But how far along they are, whether it is just R&D work, whether it will see the light of day, etc. is anyone's guess.

Many people on this forum and elsewhere will voice an opinion that there is no room for a Z7 with the Z8 also existing. I don't necessarily share that view. I don't think Nikon would waste a number between Z5 and Z9 and abandon it after just a few years. That's obviously just an opinion of mine with nothing to back it up. But it does need to be differentiated somehow.

The one thing I would agree with is that a Z7III that is basically the same as a Z6III but with a 45MP sensor doesn't make much sense with the current Z8 sitting there. Once you get over the $3000 price point, does a couple hundred dollars make a difference? Would I buy a Z7III simply to save a couple hundred dollars and a little bit in size and weight? I'd rather have the Z8.

So does a Z8II go upscale to make room for a Z7 upgrade? Or does the Z7 take a fork in the road and abandon the higher MP twin relationship with the Z6?

systemguy said:

No announcement or hint from Nikon but when would one expect Nikon to replace the Z7 II? with the Z7 III?

Thanks

Click to expand...

It is tough to find where the z7iii would fit in the Nikon lineup with the Z8.

If Nikon develops a higher resolution sensor (~60MP), I would presume they would slide that into their flagship Z9ii which might be released end of next year. They would then likely port that to the Z8ii. Perhaps Nikon is working on a sensor with nosebleed type resolution (80MP+) and if so, that would present value in having the Z7iii in the lineup.

One alternative where the Z7iii makes sense: Nikon introduces the Z7iii with a 60MP sensor in early 2025. They capture a lot of sales early in the year and then release the Z9 with the same sensor and Expeed 8 late 2025. Nikon might be able to maximize their sales with this strategy.

The dearth of rumors is not looking like anything is in the pipeline...but, you never know.

jmccas said:

systemguy said:

No announcement or hint from Nikon but when would one expect Nikon to replace the Z7 II? with the Z7 III?

Thanks

Click to expand...

It is tough to find where the z7iii would fit in the Nikon lineup with the Z8.

If Nikon develops a higher resolution sensor (~60MP), I would presume they would slide that into their flagship Z9ii which might be released end of next year. They would then likely port that to the Z8ii. Perhaps Nikon is working on a sensor with nosebleed type resolution (80MP+) and if so, that would present value in having the Z7iii in the lineup.

One alternative where the Z7iii makes sense: Nikon introduces the Z7iii with a 60MP sensor in early 2025. They capture a lot of sales early in the year and then release the Z9 with the same sensor and Expeed 8 late 2025. Nikon might be able to maximize their sales with this strategy.

Click to expand...

The fate of the Z7iii does appear to revolve around what will be the next increment in sensor resolution. The Sony 60MP sensor will probably not be that sensor.

Any sensor that will eventually find its way into a Z8/9 will have to have the fastest sensor available. We're talking an order of magnitude faster than the z6iii's sensor and with at least dual output channels (the Z8/9 use separate channels for AF/EVF and image files for zero blackout). Perhaps such a sensor with only one of the output channels active could serve this purpose, but the build cost and profitability of a Z7iii built in this sensor-throttling way would be completely unworkable.

Unfortunately, a Z8/Z9ii will require their own sensor. A sensible direction for a Z7iii that will be a landscape-optimized product would be a semi-stacked one with careful attention paid to limit readout speed to avoid the DR screams that accompanied the Z6iii introduction. So that's 2 new sensors, 2 new fab slots from a paucity of available ones, 2 new R&D projects. All in service of a market segment that isn't where the market is going. Survival in this market requires as much reuse of a sensor as possible. Volumes are simply too small to make a sensor for each new camera.

It's much more likely that if a Z7iii appears, it won't be what we expect it to be. The market can no longer tolerate nichey cameras unless they're built from spare parts like the Zf was.

michaeladawson said:

systemguy said:

No announcement or hint from Nikon but when would one expect Nikon to replace the Z7 II? with the Z7 III?

Click to expand...

No one outside of Nikon management knows the answer to that question. I'm sure there are people at Nikon working on a potential Z7III. Maybe several different variations. But how far along they are, whether it is just R&D work, whether it will see the light of day, etc. is anyone's guess.

Many people on this forum and elsewhere will voice an opinion that there is no room for a Z7 with the Z8 also existing. I don't necessarily share that view. I don't think Nikon would waste a number between Z5 and Z9 and abandon it after just a few years. That's obviously just an opinion of mine with nothing to back it up. But it does need to be differentiated somehow.

The one thing I would agree with is that a Z7III that is basically the same as a Z6III but with a 45MP sensor doesn't make much sense with the current Z8 sitting there. Once you get over the $3000 price point, does a couple hundred dollars make a difference? Would I buy a Z7III simply to save a couple hundred dollars and a little bit in size and weight? I'd rather have the Z8.

So does a Z8II go upscale to make room for a Z7 upgrade? Or does the Z7 take a fork in the road and abandon the higher MP twin relationship with the Z6?

Click to expand...

I honestly was a little bit surprised that they sacrificed dynamic range for even better autofocus with the Z6III. It kind of moved it more in the direction of the rest of the lineup, and to me it seemed quite different from the other Z6 models. As a Z6 user I was hoping for the same high dynamic range over better AF, but with improvements in other areas. The Z6II felt like too small of a difference, while the Z6III is very different. They already have several cameras in the lineup that prioritize excellent AF, but I suppose a 24 megapixel camera with an excellent AF was missing.

Ofcourse this is just wishful thinking from my side, and most probably don't care as much about the difference in dynamic range. I understand that there are several Z6III users out there who feels that it gave them something they really needed. 6K video, for instance. Honestly the Nikon Zf seems like the camera I wish for here, but I absolutely love the Z6 ergonomics. In a dream world I can have a Zf in a Z6 form factor.

Thomerik said:

michaeladawson said:

systemguy said:

No announcement or hint from Nikon but when would one expect Nikon to replace the Z7 II? with the Z7 III?

Click to expand...

No one outside of Nikon management knows the answer to that question. I'm sure there are people at Nikon working on a potential Z7III. Maybe several different variations. But how far along they are, whether it is just R&D work, whether it will see the light of day, etc. is anyone's guess.

Many people on this forum and elsewhere will voice an opinion that there is no room for a Z7 with the Z8 also existing. I don't necessarily share that view. I don't think Nikon would waste a number between Z5 and Z9 and abandon it after just a few years. That's obviously just an opinion of mine with nothing to back it up. But it does need to be differentiated somehow.

The one thing I would agree with is that a Z7III that is basically the same as a Z6III but with a 45MP sensor doesn't make much sense with the current Z8 sitting there. Once you get over the $3000 price point, does a couple hundred dollars make a difference? Would I buy a Z7III simply to save a couple hundred dollars and a little bit in size and weight? I'd rather have the Z8.

So does a Z8II go upscale to make room for a Z7 upgrade? Or does the Z7 take a fork in the road and abandon the higher MP twin relationship with the Z6?

Click to expand...

I honestly was a little bit surprised that they sacrificed dynamic range for even better autofocus with the Z6III. It kind of moved it more in the direction of the rest of the lineup, and to me it seemed quite different from the other Z6 models. As a Z6 user I was hoping for the same high dynamic range over better AF, but with improvements in other areas. The Z6II felt like too small of a difference, while the Z6III is very different. They already have several cameras in the lineup that prioritize excellent AF over certain other things, but I suppose a 24 megapixel camera with an excellent AF was missing.

Ofcourse this is just wishful thinking from my side, and most probably don't care as much about the difference in dynamic range. I understand that there are several Z6III users out there who feels that it gave them something they really needed. 6K video, for instance. Honestly the Nikon Zf seems like the camera I wish for here, but I absolutely love the Z6 ergonomics. In a dream world I can have a Zf in a Z6 form factor.

Click to expand...

the Z6iii IS a different kind of camera than the Z6ii. It's a highly competent HYBRID camera that is more video capable than previous Nikons - because that's the way the market has been heading for some time. Video content is in as much demand as stills these days, if not more so.

What would be interesting, if it is true that the loss in low-ISO DR is a consequence of the speed of readout, is if Nikon were to offer a "gearshift" button: the current speed for hybrid and action photography, a slower speed that trades off DR for AF speed.

jmccas said:

systemguy said:

No announcement or hint from Nikon but when would one expect Nikon to replace the Z7 II? with the Z7 III?

Thanks

Click to expand...

It is tough to find where the z7iii would fit in the Nikon lineup with the Z8.

If Nikon develops a higher resolution sensor (~60MP), I would presume they would slide that into their flagship Z9ii which might be released end of next year. They would then likely port that to the Z8ii. Perhaps Nikon is working on a sensor with nosebleed type resolution (80MP+) and if so, that would present value in having the Z7iii in the lineup.

One alternative where the Z7iii makes sense: Nikon introduces the Z7iii with a 60MP sensor in early 2025. They capture a lot of sales early in the year and then release the Z9 with the same sensor and Expeed 8 late 2025. Nikon might be able to maximize their sales with this strategy.

The dearth of rumors is not looking like anything is in the pipeline...but, you never know.

Click to expand...

I would doubt that both models would be sensor compatible as easily as described here.

A Z9 successor will basically have the same orientation, which is only possible with a fully stacked sensor.

There's definitely no going back and I'm not sure whether we'll see a fully stacked 60+ MP sensor with sufficiently fast read out speed for a Z9II by the end of 2025.

Even if we do, it will be very expensive and will hardly serve as a simultaneous solution for a Z7III, let alone be used in one as the first camera body.

So I don't see any compatibility between the possible sensors for a Z7III and a Z9II at the moment.

A Z9II will not exist without the power of a fully stacked sensor, which is not to be assumed for a possible Z7III, it's the field of the Z8 and Z9.

__

I could even imagine an intermediate step that goes in a similar direction to the competition with the Canon R1, or Sony's A9III.

So a Z9 absolute high-speed version with a sensor that has less data volume than the current 45MP stacked sensor and thus releases the very last handbrake.

Even if the efforts lead to a body with global shutter in the future, we will probably see this for the time being with less high-resolution sensors, as with the A9III.

I don't see 60MP and more, fully stacked and fast enough for a potential Z9II on the horizon.

So I would almost expect a high-speed Z9 version or a sensor solution comparable to the current one, but I doubt whether very high-resolution sensors of 60+ MP will be fast enough for a Z9II in the foreseeable future (end of 2025).

jmccas said:

If Nikon develops a higher resolution sensor (~60MP), I would presume they would slide that into their flagship Z9ii which might be released end of next year.

Click to expand...

Traditionally, this has not been the case.

Throughout the legacy of the dSLR, and especially the later half of dSLR iterations, the flagship camera has not been the playing ground of the highest resolution sensors. Rather, it was the camera most specifically tuned for almost every other type of performance: high ISO, best AF system with fastest framerate, most robust, etc.

I see no reason to assume that a new 60 mp sensor will premier in the z9ii.

For the time being, Z9/Z8 will have to rely on maximum read out speed until there are more potent sensor solutions in the future, and in my opinion this rules out extremely high-resolution sensor solutions at the moment.

In the end, this should also be the chance for a Z7III on the market, because for the high speed orientation of the Z9/Z8 series, significantly higher resolution sensors than the currently installed 45MP fully stacked are probably not fast enough in the near future.

systemguy said:

No announcement or hint from Nikon but when would one expect Nikon to replace the Z7 II? with the Z7 III?

Thanks

Click to expand...

We haven’t been moaning enough or making enough noise.

Nebido said:

For the time being, Z9/Z8 will have to rely on maximum read out speed until there are more potent sensor solutions in the future, and in my opinion this rules out extremely high-resolution sensor solutions at the moment.

In the end, this should also be the chance for a Z7III on the market, because for the high speed orientation of the Z9/Z8 series, significantly higher resolution sensors than the currently installed 45MP fully stacked are probably not fast enough in the near future.

Click to expand...

Curiously enough, the next big thing sensor tech appears to be photon counting, which involves even faster frame rates, but uses lowered bit depth pixel wells - or even single bit sensels - and time-space block acquisition with post capture reconstruction of the desired "exposure".

The road ahead's a rocky one.

pjm1966 said:

jmccas said:

If Nikon develops a higher resolution sensor (~60MP), I would presume they would slide that into their flagship Z9ii which might be released end of next year.

Click to expand...

Traditionally, this has not been the case.

Throughout the legacy of the dSLR, and especially the later half of dSLR iterations, the flagship camera has not been the playing ground of the highest resolution sensors. Rather, it was the camera most specifically tuned for almost every other type of performance: high ISO, best AF system with fastest framerate, most robust, etc.

Click to expand...

But the Z9 broke that pattern. It's not only a high resolution, high speed sports/wildlife stills camera but a camera capable of taking long high-resolution videos. The high-speed, low-resolution still photography flagships are a thing of the past now.

pjm1966 said:

I see no reason to assume that a new 60 mp sensor will premier in the z9ii.

Click to expand...

That's a different question. I actually don't see any huge advantage to 60MP myself (not a huge linear resolution improvement, and while I don't pay much attention to video so may miss something my feeling is that given that the 45MP sensors can do 8k it's probably no real advantage for video either). But those same arguments mean I also don't see it as terribly appealing for a Z7III. So maybe they skip that and next "high resolution" body, whichever that is, will use something different? Right now only Nikon know, and maybe they've not made their mind up yet.

aufinger said:

I'm seeing on-line ads from Nikon with $1k off the Z7II. That's a significant sale. Can that be considered an indication they're clearing stock to make room for the Z7III?

Click to expand...

Or sales went to zero once the Z8 hit?

I just bought a Z7II for that $2K deal, think that is the lowest I have seen for Nikon 45MP.

Are there any clairvoyants in this forum? Hello???