What is keeping Nikon from satisfying Z9 Demand?

vbuhay said:

BasilG said:

vbuhay said:

OK, I ordered mine Nov. 5th through B&H have check ny order with them 7 times, every time there is a new excuse, latest that Nikon have not given them a date for any shipment. My local Samy's shop has only 2 units shipped as of yesterday.... Tell me where one can be had (except EBay) with cash on hand....

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They've been shipping for like a week. Even in the absence of supply chain issues, Nikon would never, ever upscale production to the extent needed to immediately satisfy (the very high) demand. They would end up with vastly oversized production capacity once the initial peak is over, which means $$$$ spent needlessly.

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Just thinking out loud - I think there are many smart people working for Nikon - i.e. state of the the technology Photolitography systems etc... could they have possibly employ those people to solve these production issues ahead of time.... this is why some of those people are paid the "Big Bucks".

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You misunderstand. They have no intention to satisfy demand in the first month. The people who decided that are those who are paid the big bucks. Probably.

briantilley said:

vbuhay said:

BasilG said:

vbuhay said:

OK, I ordered mine Nov. 5th through B&H have check ny order with them 7 times, every time there is a new excuse, latest that Nikon have not given them a date for any shipment. My local Samy's shop has only 2 units shipped as of yesterday.... Tell me where one can be had (except EBay) with cash on hand....

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They've been shipping for like a week. Even in the absence of supply chain issues, Nikon would never, ever upscale production to the extent needed to immediately satisfy (the very high) demand. They would end up with vastly oversized production capacity once the initial peak is over, which means $$$$ spent needlessly.

Click to expand...

Just thinking out loud - I think there are many smart people working for Nikon - i.e. state of the the technology Photolitography systems etc... could they have possibly employ those people to solve these production issues ahead of time.... this is why some of those people are paid the "Big Bucks".

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What “production issues”?
As BasilG explained, Nikon planned and put in place a certain level of production capacity for the Z9. We have to assume they are achieving the planned output, but initial demand has simply been higher than that capacity.

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I agree and I guess nobody would want to receive Z9 assembled by a worker that was trained in a week and knows that he/she will be gone in three months after initial demand drops of.

Same with automated production lines, you don't build you manufacturing capacity to be able to to cope with initial peak and then use only fraction of it's capacity during the rest of product lifetime.

I think the only solution is to stockpile the product before releasing it to cover the initial demand but that prolongs time to market.

MCLV said:

I think the only solution is to stockpile the product before releasing it to cover the initial demand but that prolongs time to market.

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Indeed, that is a poor solution for everybody: for the buyers because some could have obtained their cameras right away, with no benefits for the others waiting; for the dealer because he has to wait longer before satisfying some customers, and for the manufacturer who is holding stock (= money) for no good reason.

I ordered mine through Nikon on November 3rd and I'm NPS. I did not, however, choose priority shipping until mid-December. I haven't heard a peep from Nikon yet. I was surprised by their email saying anyone who ordered by December 19th should have it by the middle of January. I really wasn't expecting it until late Spring.

Jeff Self said:

I ordered mine through Nikon on November 3rd and I'm NPS. I did not, however, choose priority shipping until mid-December. I haven't heard a peep from Nikon yet. I was surprised by their email saying anyone who ordered by December 19th should have it by the middle of January. I really wasn't expecting it until late Spring.

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I thought that I was NPS about a year ago but apparently the membership number they gave me then has not been approved, so I had to re-apply about a month ago but I have not heard from Nikon USA since. I waited to order until I had a chance to actually hold a Z9 during a show and tell here in LA....Nov 4th. I pre-ordered through B&H to take advantage of their tax incentive rebate....

The reason for this thread is to see if the community has any factual reason for the delay. What I have seen here so far are opinions and supositions which might be logically right but no actual facts....

My frustration level is going up by the day, all I want from Nikon or B&H is an Honest ETA... I hate to keep checking and being given a different answer every time as if I am being lied to.

I am not yet considering a Sony A1 due to the fact that I have a large number of Nikon Bodies and Lenses, but if this persist there is a limit to my patience.

Thanks you all to those who have offered their opinions.

vbuhay said:

As we are now seeing the massive Production Shortfall of the Z9 does anybody know what is keeping Nikon from producing enough Z9 Bodies?

Is it the Mechanical bodies?

The Electronic Components (other material) sourcing - including the Stacked BSI CMOS Sensor or the Expeed7 Processor?

Production techniques?

Production Infrastructures?

Company Culture (Management)?

I just want Nikon to take my money and give me my Z9....any insight on the issue might help sooth my frustration!

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They don't like you.

vbuhay said:

Jeff Self said:

I ordered mine through Nikon on November 3rd and I'm NPS. I did not, however, choose priority shipping until mid-December. I haven't heard a peep from Nikon yet. I was surprised by their email saying anyone who ordered by December 19th should have it by the middle of January. I really wasn't expecting it until late Spring.

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I thought that I was NPS about a year ago but apparently the membership number they gave me then has not been approved, so I had to re-apply about a month ago but I have not heard from Nikon USA since. I waited to order until I had a chance to actually hold a Z9 during a show and tell here in LA....Nov 4th. I pre-ordered through B&H to take advantage of their tax incentive rebate....

The reason for this thread is to see if the community has any factual reason for the delay. What I have seen here so far are opinions and supositions which might be logically right but no actual facts....

My frustration level is going up by the day, all I want from Nikon or B&H is an Honest ETA... I hate to keep checking and being given a different answer every time as if I am being lied to.

I am not yet considering a Sony A1 due to the fact that I have a large number of Nikon Bodies and Lenses, but if this persist there is a limit to my patience.

Thanks you all to those who have offered their opinions.

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You are in a very long line of folks that have become part of the massive misinformation and disinformation movement regarding the Z9's delivery ability and timeframe. Both NPS and Non NPS members have suffered from being told many stories about the delivery time schedule from Nikon. The retailers like B&H in particular have been very responsible for some of this being way off of reality about the delivery times.

About the ONLY thing you will be able to find regarding actual information directly from Nikon and not absurd other sources, is they said they are determined to satisfy ALL the NPS orders by the end of January. As for delivery to OTHER and non NPS memberships around the globe, they have made NO commitments whatsoever. You will notice if you are paying close attention, that the smaller dealers get a trickle of a couple bodies here and there. The large dealers are not getting a number larger then that either so it's all in the same boat. I'm really sorry to say but I'm not really thinking, that even though I pre ordered with 3 dealers around the 4th of November, that I will have a chance to see a Z9 prior to the summer. I wouldn't plan on it much prior to that time frame. It's the world we're living in, and unless Nikon delivers more detailed info (which I don't think they will) just put it out of your mind until the day comes it may actually happen.

The reason they aren't meeting demand is because there is demand. They've already put out one statement that demand is far above expectations.

Doesn't matter if it's cameras or cabbage patch dolls. If demand exceeds supply you end up with shortages.

Just remember all those people claiming nobody would buy a 5.5K camera or that all the rumours of massive preorders couldn't be true.

Deman is!

john isaacs said:

vbuhay said:

As we are now seeing the massive Production Shortfall of the Z9 does anybody know what is keeping Nikon from producing enough Z9 Bodies?

Is it the Mechanical bodies?

The Electronic Components (other material) sourcing - including the Stacked BSI CMOS Sensor or the Expeed7 Processor?

Production techniques?

Production Infrastructures?

Company Culture (Management)?

I just want Nikon to take my money and give me my Z9....any insight on the issue might help sooth my frustration!

Click to expand...

They don't like you.

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LOL! That cannot be true. but after buying 9 bodies (6 of which I still have) I can honestly say I like their products and if anyone asks me why I choose Nikon, I just tell them it is because NASA choose Nikon...

ProDude said:

vbuhay said:

Jeff Self said:

I ordered mine through Nikon on November 3rd and I'm NPS. I did not, however, choose priority shipping until mid-December. I haven't heard a peep from Nikon yet. I was surprised by their email saying anyone who ordered by December 19th should have it by the middle of January. I really wasn't expecting it until late Spring.

Click to expand...

I thought that I was NPS about a year ago but apparently the membership number they gave me then has not been approved, so I had to re-apply about a month ago but I have not heard from Nikon USA since. I waited to order until I had a chance to actually hold a Z9 during a show and tell here in LA....Nov 4th. I pre-ordered through B&H to take advantage of their tax incentive rebate....

The reason for this thread is to see if the community has any factual reason for the delay. What I have seen here so far are opinions and supositions which might be logically right but no actual facts....

My frustration level is going up by the day, all I want from Nikon or B&H is an Honest ETA... I hate to keep checking and being given a different answer every time as if I am being lied to.

I am not yet considering a Sony A1 due to the fact that I have a large number of Nikon Bodies and Lenses, but if this persist there is a limit to my patience.

Thanks you all to those who have offered their opinions.

Click to expand...

You are in a very long line of folks that have become part of the massive misinformation and disinformation movement regarding the Z9's delivery ability and timeframe. Both NPS and Non NPS members have suffered from being told many stories about the delivery time schedule from Nikon. The retailers like B&H in particular have been very responsible for some of this being way off of reality about the delivery times.

About the ONLY thing you will be able to find regarding actual information directly from Nikon and not absurd other sources, is they said they are determined to satisfy ALL the NPS orders by the end of January. As for delivery to OTHER and non NPS memberships around the globe, they have made NO commitments whatsoever. You will notice if you are paying close attention, that the smaller dealers get a trickle of a couple bodies here and there. The large dealers are not getting a number larger then that either so it's all in the same boat. I'm really sorry to say but I'm not really thinking, that even though I pre ordered with 3 dealers around the 4th of November, that I will have a chance to see a Z9 prior to the summer. I wouldn't plan on it much prior to that time frame. It's the world we're living in, and unless Nikon delivers more detailed info (which I don't think they will) just put it out of your mind until the day comes it may actually happen.

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Good advice, I think I will do that...Thank you!

In the mean time I will just have to shoot Oscar who is geting very impatient with what I have....

Two fold issues in supply chain: chips shortage due to disruption in Taiwan (which is getting sorted) and historic rise in shipping rates in the last 1.5 years (which, on per chip price basis is economically unviable). Shipping rates have eased up in the last couple of months by around 40% but are still a few times the rates pre covid. For production to beat demand would take another 9-12 months it’s estimated.

At least that’s that I can figure out.

The chip problem is a lot more than the Taiwan drought. The Japanese plant fire hurt. The Texas cold snap hurt. But that's supply. The other half is surging demand. Look around your house my guess is you'll see various new devices that are really little computers. My washing machine has BT and downloadable programs. My fridge has BT. My heating system has WiFi. My car is smarter than the average bear.

That's before you factor in what Covid did. Covid has caused people to rush out and get computers and tablets . Work from home or home schooling.

Then you have the factor few talk about. The real shortage seems to be in the low tech chips that nobody has bothered to build new plants for. Chips in power supplies for example.

All it takes is one tiny part that can't be substituted for to be out of stock. A chip. A capacitor. Even bare PCB boards are supposedly hard to find.

Yes, true. Very well summarised, thanks

The reply that "demand is " hits the nail on the head Part of the blame surely is the feeding frenzy which the silly system of preordering engenders. If Nikon could not supply the Z9 for the various genuine reasons already stated they should not have instigated a preordering system which by design artificially hikes up demand. To my knowlelge they havent actually release shipments to the UK yet. They must have known they were unable to fulfill any initial demand at the outset
Regards

Peter

vbuhay said:

As we are now seeing the massive Production Shortfall of the Z9 does anybody know what is keeping Nikon from producing enough Z9 Bodies?

I just want Nikon to take my money and give me my Z9....any insight on the issue might help sooth my frustration!

Click to expand...

You forget NPS lease.

Nikon knows how many pro-cameras there are in NPS lease and how many D4, D5 and D6 they sold without NPS lease . The "old" lease system was 4 years and every 2 year a new body. In the new system the cheapest way is a 3 year contract. If you have last year a contract for 2 or more D6s they know over 2 year they need 2 or more new cameras and not now. So Nikon know when the most pro's need a new body and can fulfill that.

I know this is from Nikon Europe and in the US it is possible a other lease system. NPS in Europe is also different from the US. In the US it is easier to become a NPS member.

vbuhay said:

The reason for this thread is to see if the community has any factual reason for the delay.

Click to expand...

You got the true answer. Like all manufacturers, Nikon invests (millions of dollars) in a production process based on its estimate of sustained demand over the life of the product, and that inevitably means that there will be shortages when the product is first introduced, if there is a high initial demand.

It's true that Nikon is especially conservative in this regard compared to some (not all) of its competitors. Historically, if you were a Canon user, you didn't have to wait as long for newly introduced products in high demand (although that does not appear to be true right now.) It's always been this way: when I managed a camera store in the late 1980s, it took Nikon USA a full year to clear all backorders for the F4 camera after its introduction.

I've seen the same dynamic dozens of times since then, to varying degrees.

vbuhay said:

What I have seen here so far are opinions and supositions which might be logically right but no actual facts....

My frustration level is going up by the day, all I want from Nikon or B&H is an Honest ETA...

Click to expand...

Nobody can give you that right now. The answer can't be derived by either party. Nikon knows how many cameras it's producing, but it has no idea how many real customer orders there are, or where those orders are placed. B&H knows how many customer orders it has, but has no idea how many will be canceled or refused, and no reliable idea how many cameras Nikon will provide to B&H or on what schedule.

In 2-3 months, Nikon may have some vague idea of the real global sell-through rate of the Z9, and from that, they will be able to make a very rough estimate of when they may be able to clear backorders by region -- i.e. make the camera generally available on dealer shelves. But depending on that sell-through rate, they may not be able to make a reliable estimate. And in any case, it won't tell you anything about your individual order at a particular dealer because the two events (Nikon clearing dealer backorders and you getting your camera) are not necessarily correlated.

Peter M J said:

The reply that "demand is " hits the nail on the head Part of the blame surely is the feeding frenzy which the silly system of preordering engenders. If Nikon could not supply the Z9 for the various genuine reasons already stated they should not have instigated a preordering system which by design artificially hikes up demand. To my knowlelge they havent actually release shipments to the UK yet.

Click to expand...

According to my dealer (Grays), the UK received no more than 100 units in the first shipment, just before Christmas.

Peter M J said:

They must have known they were unable to fulfill any initial demand at the outset
Regards

Peter

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ProDude said:

vbuhay said:

Jeff Self said:

I ordered mine through Nikon on November 3rd and I'm NPS. I did not, however, choose priority shipping until mid-December. I haven't heard a peep from Nikon yet. I was surprised by their email saying anyone who ordered by December 19th should have it by the middle of January. I really wasn't expecting it until late Spring.

Click to expand...

I thought that I was NPS about a year ago but apparently the membership number they gave me then has not been approved, so I had to re-apply about a month ago but I have not heard from Nikon USA since. I waited to order until I had a chance to actually hold a Z9 during a show and tell here in LA....Nov 4th. I pre-ordered through B&H to take advantage of their tax incentive rebate....

The reason for this thread is to see if the community has any factual reason for the delay. What I have seen here so far are opinions and supositions which might be logically right but no actual facts....

My frustration level is going up by the day, all I want from Nikon or B&H is an Honest ETA... I hate to keep checking and being given a different answer every time as if I am being lied to.

I am not yet considering a Sony A1 due to the fact that I have a large number of Nikon Bodies and Lenses, but if this persist there is a limit to my patience.

Thanks you all to those who have offered their opinions.

Click to expand...

You are in a very long line of folks that have become part of the massive misinformation and disinformation movement regarding the Z9's delivery ability and timeframe. Both NPS and Non NPS members have suffered from being told many stories about the delivery time schedule from Nikon. The retailers like B&H in particular have been very responsible for some of this being way off of reality about the delivery times.

About the ONLY thing you will be able to find regarding actual information directly from Nikon and not absurd other sources, is they said they are determined to satisfy ALL the NPS orders by the end of January. As for delivery to OTHER and non NPS memberships around the globe, they have made NO commitments whatsoever. You will notice if you are paying close attention, that the smaller dealers get a trickle of a couple bodies here and there. The large dealers are not getting a number larger then that either so it's all in the same boat. I'm really sorry to say but I'm not really thinking, that even though I pre ordered with 3 dealers around the 4th of November, that I will have a chance to see a Z9 prior to the summer. I wouldn't plan on it much prior to that time frame. It's the world we're living in, and unless Nikon delivers more detailed info (which I don't think they will) just put it out of your mind until the day comes it may actually happen.

Click to expand...

Just a minor correction - I believe the statement was that all NPS orders made through December 19th would be cleared by the end of January.

Peter M J said:

The reply that "demand is " hits the nail on the head Part of the blame surely is the feeding frenzy which the silly system of preordering engenders. If Nikon could not supply the Z9 for the various genuine reasons already stated they should not have instigated a preordering system which by design artificially hikes up demand. To my knowlelge they havent actually release shipments to the UK yet. They must have known they were unable to fulfill any initial demand at the outset
Regards

Peter

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So true,....they knew what they were onto! ...and the bean counters literally couldn't sleep at night,....once they understood the affects the Z9 would have in the digital camera arena!

I'm thinking,...they are overfilled with anxiety,...."how in the heck are we going to fill all of these orders?"