sportyaccordy wrote:g news : The only reliable buyers left are looking at the high end.
In Jan-May (CIPA), FF lens shipments were down 46.3%, and smaller-than-FF lens shipments were down 48.1%. So much for reliable FF buyers.
63% of lenses shipped were smaller-than-FF lenses.
Yea I'm sure the global pandemic that ground the economy to a halt had nothing to do with that.
In 2012 (the best year for ILC sales) FF lenses accounted for 20% of units and 43% of sales. In 2019 FF lenses accounted for
34% of units and
63% of sales.
Er, that would be because Canon and Nikon entered FF mirrorless just before the start of 2019, so nearly everyone buying the new FF mounts were also buying lenses for them.
2018 figures would be less distorted; you got that for us?
Sorry to burst your predetermined conclusion bubble but the 2018 figures are pretty much the same....
32% of units and
60% of sales. Even with the significantly reduced COVID volumes the trend continues....
39%/67% as of May of this year. If anything COVID will accelerate the trend as the recession has less impact on people with more money.
So like I said.... "The only reliable buyers left are looking at the high end."
They are still outnumbered 2:1 by crop lens buyers.......
They were outnumbered
5:1 in 2012.
4:1 -- unless you gave us the wrong numbers.
Where do you see this trend headed?
Do you want to know how many trends don't go on indefinitely? Do you want to know how many speculators have lost fortunes and businesses by drawing the conclusion about trends you just did above? It's meaningless!
any connection to reliability is your "predetermined conclusion bubble", to borrow a nasty put-down from its true owner.
My conclusions are not predetermined; they are drawn from the data.
OK. The Covid data in May, extrapolated to the future, said we will all be dead in about 2 years. That is 'drawn from the data'. And the latest estimates are also drawn from the data. See where your line of logic can head? What your conclusion is, is a WILD GUESS. Drawn from data. Most wild guesses are. Don't be too cocky about 'drawn from data'.
After all, a phone camera fan could look at camera sales trends and
tell you, 'drawn from the data', that all cameras are doomed and will be a historical side note not in 20 years, not 10, not 5, but about 2 years. Now, I would tell him the same thing I am telling you, but he would cockily tell me to 'go look at the data myself'. And you know what? He would be more justified than you.
That phrase was not a nasty put down; it was merely an observation.
Oh yes it was. Too late to try reframing it now.
It's clear you have your mind made up that crop systems are still a source of growth.
Oh, I so love it when someone thinks THEY can CLEARLY read my mind.
I don't see anything to support that.
Good, because I never said it, so you are doing the straw man thing. Enjoy your fantasy.
FF and crop are both falling, but crop is falling way faster than FF and larger. You don't think that has factored into where camera makers have focused their efforts?
Stop fantasizing what I am saying. It makes you look bad.
Here is what I am saying, and I will be basing it on what Canon have said in interviews. Full frame is their best hope of producing profitable photography gear, so they will be developing and releasing FF products for us.
Now, have you noticed something in what I am saying?
It is very similar to what you are saying. So, looks like you couldn't be more wrong about reading my mind, so I suggest you lose that bad habit forthwith. All I did, engaging with you, was suggest 2018 is a better year to use as evidence of trend rates, because 2019 was straight after FF mirrorless went mainstream, so better double check. I'm OK with the 2018 data supporting the 2019 figures.
My personal view, though, is that there will be a new equilibrium point on crop vs FF sales, and we don't know where it will be. At the moment, there is still a way to go for it to be any better than 50/50. It's got nothing to do with 'reliable buyers', it's just demand equilibrium.
And to conclude with something I am very confident in saying. These entry level FF mirrorless cameras and kit zooms will be less profitable than premium crop gear -- far less profitable. So, in tempting premium crop buyers to same-priced FF, they are losing money. What Canon was saying about profitability lying in FF, is premium FF. R5 and R6 and L lenses. For Sony it's A7R and A9 and G/GM lenses. They would rather have us buying premium crop than entry level FF. So that is what they are going to emphasize, and aim for: equilibrium, not all-FF.
cheers
