While the ignorant point to a decade of ILC camera sales decline and insist the sky is falling, "Oh! The humanity!" they overlook telling you that over the same time the industry shipped nearly as many interchangeable lenses as they had going all the way back to when CIPA was keeping numbers in the 50s. The industry virtually matched six decades of lens shipments in one decade. You know, the "chicken little" decade.
Obviously enthusiast interest in photography is as strong as ever. Body sales are dormant, but interest in photography, based on lens sales, has never been better.
Look at the numbers yourself, and see the story.
Prior to the digital revolution at the turn of the century, the industry shipped somewhere around 1 lens for every 1 to 4 ILCs sold. And during the rapid expansion of digital camera sales that number dipped down to one lens for every 10 cameras sold. The real growth in lens sales happened right after digital ILC camera sales crested. In 2019 the industry sales of lenses to cameras sold was nearly one to one, and ILC lens sales were nearly triple what they were prior to the digital revolution.
ILC use is not dying, and looking at the explosive grown in lens sales, smart phones certainly aren't killing the market.
We'll see the ILC market contract to something like it was prior to the digital revolution, but larger, with new users who were attracted to the convenience of digital.
So who will stay in the game?
The big three, and any others with a customer base with good glass.
Rick
