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picklepie said:
What you’re missing: very very few entry level photographers even know when a macro lens is, and they generally aren’t willing to buy an additional lens that costs more than the body.

I’d submit that today’s best phones are better in low light than an aps-c camera with kit lens. (Remember, the newest iPhones use a 1.8 aperture and advanced computational photography to make up for small sensor size) Same goes for bokeh — with computational photography, the phone is better than the kit lens.

Yes, entry level shooters can still enjoy the benefits of telephoto shooting if they go beyond the 18-55 lens... but a huge portion of those entry level shooters would never add a second lens. Some are intimidated by the process of changing lenses, they don’t see the reason to spend extra money on a second lens, or they don’t want the bulk of carrying a separate lens.

For years, I’ve taught an adult class geared to those who want to get more out of their ILCs. Very common for a student to walk in with a 7 year old dslr, and they’ve never changed the lens. I’d say about 50% have never owned/used more than 1 lens. 90% have never owned or use more than a basic 18-55 and 55-250 type of setup. (The other 10% may have a nifty fifty or something)
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I think you are very correct.


Two years ago Canon had 30 years celebration of the EF mount and published that they had sold 130 million lenses and 90 million bodys since the start. That is a 1.4x ratio between body and lenses. So many never get another lens. Many have only one or two extra lenses and then there are the enthusiasts that have a load of lenses.

One can play with an Excel sheet and map out those extra lenses according to some assumption and see how many bodys only have one lens.

By the way, the latest smartphones even has 10x optical zoom equivalent to 16-160 mm. See link above in another of my posts for more info on that.

--
Best regards
/Anders
----------------------------------------------------
42 Megapixels is the answer to life, the universe and everything.
Gone in 20 fps.
You don't have to like my pictures, but it would help: http://www.lattermann.com/gallery
 
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SilvanBromide said:
JRP64 said:
...What concerns me is if a camera manufacturer one day says "I don't think we will be making cameras next year". I don't see this happen to Canon or Nikon, but Sony might ...
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None of the 'big three' is likely to simply withdraw from the market anytime soon - they have far too much invested.

Far more likely is that one or more of them might sell their business to a competitor (somewhat in the fashion that Konica sold the Minolta brand to Sony some years back).
Click to expand...
The company is named Konica-Minolta which is the merger of Konica and Minolta in 2003.

The Konica manual focus camera system was dropped in 1987 already and the Minolta A-mount developed in 1985 by Minolta as the worlds first autofocus system camera system was kept in the merged company and branded with Konica-Minolta on the bodys and lenses.

In 2006 Konica-Minolta sold their camera business to Sony.

Konica-Minolta still exists today and does multifunction copiers and other stuff. They also design lenses.

Several of the staff from the Konica-Minolta camera division went over to Sony.
SilvanBromide said:
O don't expect either to happen very soon. However in the longer run, I suspect Sony is more likely to acquire another camera business than to sell the one they've invested so much in the success of.
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If I would put my money on what mount will soon go out of time, it is the Pentax mount. It does have a bunch of users that are real enthusiasts supporting it. But I wonder if that is enough. Here is a sign of where it is going:

Loading…

photorumors.com
 
All correct. On many casual photography Internet forums (like the photography section of a Disney forum, etc), used to see lots of threads “what camera should I get?”

Those types of questions are gone. Casual users looking to snap a few pics don’t buy a camera anymore. And no reason for them to.

For someone who really doesn’t want to spend much money and doesn’t want to learn photography... they just want to easily snap half-decent images... I would recommend a good phone as their camera.

I’m leading a casual sunset photowalk this evening. I wonder how many people will show up with just phones.
 
picklepie said:
All correct. On many casual photography Internet forums (like the photography section of a Disney forum, etc), used to see lots of threads “what camera should I get?”

Those types of questions are gone. Casual users looking to snap a few pics don’t buy a camera anymore. And no reason for them to.

For someone who really doesn’t want to spend much money and doesn’t want to learn photography... they just want to easily snap half-decent images... I would recommend a good phone as their camera.

I’m leading a casual sunset photowalk this evening. I wonder how many people will show up with just phones.
Click to expand...
I see the same development around me.

Another rising trend I have noted in several Facebook Sony photo groups for a particular body, like the A7III group etc is that the most common question when someone posts a nice image is that several persons post the same question: "Which lens is this shot with?". I still haven't figured out where this comes from, I only have some theories.
 
lattesweden said:
picklepie said:
All correct. On many casual photography Internet forums (like the photography section of a Disney forum, etc), used to see lots of threads “what camera should I get?”

Those types of questions are gone. Casual users looking to snap a few pics don’t buy a camera anymore. And no reason for them to.

For someone who really doesn’t want to spend much money and doesn’t want to learn photography... they just want to easily snap half-decent images... I would recommend a good phone as their camera.

I’m leading a casual sunset photowalk this evening. I wonder how many people will show up with just phones.
Click to expand...
I see the same development around me.

Another rising trend I have noted in several Facebook Sony photo groups for a particular body, like the A7III group etc is that the most common question when someone posts a nice image is that several persons post the same question: "Which lens is this shot with?". I still haven't figured out where this comes from, I only have some theories.
Click to expand...
Similar dumb questions: “can anyone post photos taken with _____ lens?” (As if a few compressed Facebook samples say anything about lens quality)

or simply, “what settings did you use for that photo?”

Or “I own this lens so far, what men’s should I buy next?” (Without any information on shooting needs)

But these types of questions are a positive indicator: these are people who don’t have much experience or knowledge YET, but have been bitten by the photography bug who want to learn more. These types of questions need to be answered with patience and guidance.

What’s changed: 5 years ago, these types of shooters would own a Canon Rebel. They wouldn’t be shooting full frame. Very few “newbies” would be stepping up to full frame. Now, with the A7iii, Z6, Canon Rs, you’re getting inexperienced photographers going right to full frame. (And this is Why average sales price has increased even as volume has declined)

lattesweden said:
--
Best regards
/Anders
----------------------------------------------------
42 Megapixels is the answer to life, the universe and everything.
Gone in 20 fps.
You don't have to like my pictures, but it would help: http://www.lattermann.com/gallery
Click to expand...
 
lattesweden said:
SilvanBromide said:
JRP64 said:
...What concerns me is if a camera manufacturer one day says "I don't think we will be making cameras next year". I don't see this happen to Canon or Nikon, but Sony might ...
Click to expand...
None of the 'big three' is likely to simply withdraw from the market anytime soon - they have far too much invested.

Far more likely is that one or more of them might sell their business to a competitor (somewhat in the fashion that Konica sold the Minolta brand to Sony some years back).
Click to expand...
The company is named Konica-Minolta which is the merger of Konica and Minolta in 2003.

The Konica manual focus camera system was dropped in 1987 already and the Minolta A-mount developed in 1985 by Minolta as the worlds first autofocus system camera system was kept in the merged company and branded with Konica-Minolta on the bodys and lenses.

In 2006 Konica-Minolta sold their camera business to Sony.

Konica-Minolta still exists today and does multifunction copiers and other stuff. They also design lenses.

Several of the staff from the Konica-Minolta camera division went over to Sony.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the clarification and additional detail.

It seems you are correct that the Konica-Minolta name is still in use, even though the camera tech that originated with Minolta was transferred fully to Sony, along with some key staff.
lattesweden said:
lattesweden said:
i don't expect either to happen very soon. However in the longer run, I suspect Sony is more likely to acquire another camera business than to sell the one they've invested so much in the success of.
Click to expand...
If I would put my money on what mount will soon go out of time, it is the Pentax mount. It does have a bunch of users that are real enthusiasts supporting it. But I wonder if that is enough. Here is a sign of where it is going:

https://photorumors.com/2019/09/07/...because-they-are-concentrating-on-mirrorless/
Click to expand...
Hard to say what Ricoh will do, but I agree that WRT FF, at least, the K mount seems the most vulnerable at present.
 
picklepie said:
picklepie said:
Another rising trend I have noted in several Facebook Sony photo groups for a particular body, like the A7III group etc is that the most common question when someone posts a nice image is that several persons post the same question: "Which lens is this shot with?". I still haven't figured out where this comes from, I only have some theories.
Click to expand...
Similar dumb questions: “can anyone post photos taken with _____ lens?” (As if a few compressed Facebook samples say anything about lens quality)

or simply, “what settings did you use for that photo?”

Or “I own this lens so far, what men’s should I buy next?” (Without any information on shooting needs)

But these types of questions are a positive indicator: these are people who don’t have much experience or knowledge YET, but have been bitten by the photography bug who want to learn more. These types of questions need to be answered with patience and guidance.

What’s changed: 5 years ago, these types of shooters would own a Canon Rebel. They wouldn’t be shooting full frame. Very few “newbies” would be stepping up to full frame. Now, with the A7iii, Z6, Canon Rs, you’re getting inexperienced photographers going right to full frame. (And this is Why average sales price has increased even as volume has declined)
Click to expand...
I guess your analyze is rather spot on.

What surprise me is that people with so little knowledge invest so much money in their gear and also has an interest in investing even more (otherwise they wouldn't ask the "which lens is this shot with" question).

The Canon Rebel gang didn't buy many extra lenses, many no extra lens at all even. They used the kit zoom and that was that.

So these new FF owners are different.

And there should also be a market to get these beginner FF owners educated with courses etc.
 
SilvanBromide said:
Thanks for the clarification and additional detail.

It seems you are correct that the Konica-Minolta name is still in use, even though the camera tech that originated with Minolta was transferred fully to Sony, along with some key staff.
Click to expand...
I wonder what Sony will do with the A-mount. They still sell it. It is still placed at their first page side by side with the E-mount stuff on their camera department on at least Sony.se and they have cashback campaigns both on E and A mount at the same time etc.
 
Not quite...90% of those 2014 Canon Rebel buyers didn’t invest in additional lenses.

But 10% of them did.

And that 10%... a lot of those types of shooters are going right to the cheaper FF cameras.
 
picklepie said:
Not quite...90% of those 2014 Canon Rebel buyers didn’t invest in additional lenses.

But 10% of them did.

And that 10%... a lot of those types of shooters are going right to the cheaper FF cameras.
Click to expand...
You could very well be right in that.
 
lattesweden said:
SilvanBromide said:
Thanks for the clarification and additional detail.

It seems you are correct that the Konica-Minolta name is still in use, even though the camera tech that originated with Minolta was transferred fully to Sony, along with some key staff.
Click to expand...
I wonder what Sony will do with the A-mount. They still sell it. It is still placed at their first page side by side with the E-mount stuff on their camera department on at least Sony.se and they have cashback campaigns both on E and A mount at the same time etc.
Click to expand...
It may not make them a lot of money anymore, but it's still generating revenue and costs them near nothing. I think they're just letting it fade away. There's no benefit to them saying A mount is dead, but there's little benefit to them investing any new development in it either.

Personally, I think they missed an opportunity. There are still some die hard A mount users they could win with a better path to E mount (a new round of adapters with better/fuller functionality), but I think they've already lost a decent chunk of the A mount users to Nikon, Canon, and Pentax.

--
A7R2 with SEL2470Z and a number of adapted lenses (Canon FD, Minolta AF, Canon EF, Leica, Nikon...); A7R converted to IR.
 
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SQLGuy said:
SQLGuy said:
I wonder what Sony will do with the A-mount. They still sell it. It is still placed at their first page side by side with the E-mount stuff on their camera department on at least Sony.se and they have cashback campaigns both on E and A mount at the same time etc.
Click to expand...
It may not make them a lot of money anymore, but it's still generating revenue and costs them near nothing. I think they're just letting it fade away. There's no benefit to them saying A mount is dead, but there's little benefit to them investing any new development in it either.

Personally, I think they missed an opportunity. There are still some die hard A mount users they could win with a better path to E mount (a new round of adapters with better/fuller functionality), but I think they've already lost a decent chunk of the A mount users to Nikon, Canon, and Pentax.
Click to expand...
I have been eyeing the A-mount used glass prices and it is really low, so I checked what adapted performance would be like and came to the conclusion that it wasn't interesting with especially the LA-EA4 one. And there aren't many lenses that does AF with the LA-EA3.

If they made a LA-EA4-ish adapter with the A99II AF-circuit or used the PDAF from the sensor, it would be a much more interesting proposition, and maybe that is were the shoe is squeezing (Swedish saying): They simply don't want adapted A-mount glass to compete with new native E-mount lenses.

--
Best regards
/Anders
----------------------------------------------------
42 Megapixels is the answer to life, the universe and everything.
Gone in 20 fps.
You don't have to like my pictures, but it would help: http://www.lattermann.com/gallery
 
Last edited:
This is the situations when hegemony changes.

How is Sony doing now?
 
Magnar W said:
This is the situations when hegemony changes.

How is Sony doing now?
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The CIPA report didn't tell that, but since mirrorless and lenses for those are the brightest parts in an otherwise not so bright report, my guess is that they do among the better.
 
michoristo said:
Global smartphone sales are in decline as well. Probably market saturation of both cameras and phones.
Click to expand...
annual smart phone sales may be down, but # of smart phones in use is not declining. two very different stats.

--
my equipment: a7iii. NATIVE: sony 50 1.8. samyang 35 2.8. ADAPTED: sigma mc11 adapter. canon 85mm 1.8. sigma (canon) 12-24 4-5.6. canon 70-300mm f/4-5.6 is ii.
 
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SilvanBromide said:
JRP64 said:
...What concerns me is if a camera manufacturer one day says "I don't think we will be making cameras next year". I don't see this happen to Canon or Nikon, but Sony might ...
Click to expand...
None of the 'big three' is likely to simply withdraw from the market anytime soon - they have far too much invested.

Far more likely is that one or more of them might sell their business to a competitor (somewhat in the fashion that Konica sold the Minolta brand to Sony some years back).

O don't expect either to happen very soon. However in the longer run, I suspect Sony is more likely to acquire another camera business than to sell the one they've invested so much in the success of.
Click to expand...
I'd bet money we are going to lose 1-2 major camera brands in the next 5 years. Don't think it will be sony since they heavily outselling canon and nikon in FF market.
 
picklepie said:
All correct. On many casual photography Internet forums (like the photography section of a Disney forum, etc), used to see lots of threads “what camera should I get?”

Those types of questions are gone. Casual users looking to snap a few pics don’t buy a camera anymore. And no reason for them to.

For someone who really doesn’t want to spend much money and doesn’t want to learn photography... they just want to easily snap half-decent images... I would recommend a good phone as their camera.

I’m leading a casual sunset photowalk this evening. I wonder how many people will show up with just phones.
Click to expand...
Thought I would report after the sunset photowalk.

Couple surprised... about 15 people showed up. The majority were just using their phones.

Not counting me, the only "real" cameras were:

- 1 family brought a Sony A6000

-1 guy brought an Sony A77ii (shocked to see a Sony dSLT still out in the wild)

-1 Canon M50

-1 Canon Rebel

About a dozen phones
 
SQLGuy said:
For entering into photography, an A7II is just as good a camera today as it was when it was released. Even an A7 is a good starter camera for a serious enthusiast,... or a D750.

If camera companies price their new "entry level" cameras higher, that's fine, but it doesn't really raise the cost of entry for new photographers... just for new photographers who can't realize their vision without the latest features.

For pros, my impression is that wedding photographers, portrait photographers, etc, already have good enough tools, but sports and news photographers may be driven by competition with their peers to actually need to upgrade instead of just wanting to.
Click to expand...
Very valid points. Unless camera makers adjust to the new As-A-Service or Platform-based models, all the profits will go to the companies such as Microsoft, Apple or Adobe. Things like Play Memories where so badly done and thought that it really hurts. New business models are needed, imho.
 
picklepie said:
picklepie said:
All correct. On many casual photography Internet forums (like the photography section of a Disney forum, etc), used to see lots of threads “what camera should I get?”

Those types of questions are gone. Casual users looking to snap a few pics don’t buy a camera anymore. And no reason for them to.

For someone who really doesn’t want to spend much money and doesn’t want to learn photography... they just want to easily snap half-decent images... I would recommend a good phone as their camera.

I’m leading a casual sunset photowalk this evening. I wonder how many people will show up with just phones.
Click to expand...
Thought I would report after the sunset photowalk.

Couple surprised... about 15 people showed up. The majority were just using their phones.

Not counting me, the only "real" cameras were:

- 1 family brought a Sony A6000

-1 guy brought an Sony A77ii (shocked to see a Sony dSLT still out in the wild)

-1 Canon M50

-1 Canon Rebel

About a dozen phones
Click to expand...
What do the "phone people" want to achieve with joining an event like yours?
 
Its obvious and the smartphone camera will continue to eat into the ILC camera market until it owns 99% of it. That 1% will be pros and high-end enthusiasts only.

The ILC camera companies have seen the writing on the wall for some time which is why we are seeing so many new bodies being released. Its a desperation move to take advantage of the current trend in innovation brought on by mirrorless. Unfortunately, it isn't all that it was hyped to be as we are just now seeing incremental improvements in capability over DSLR. But to get just a slight improvement in AF, and video, you need to spend what amounts to pro-level money on gear. This was never sustainable and we are beginning to see the final decline in the ILC market.
 
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