Sales keeps going down

lattesweden · Sep 7, 2019

This CIPA report is published on the Nikon rumors site, but it covers the whole industry.

Mirrorless is still holding up the best in value, but is going down in numbers (as well as everything else).

Since the value of sales still is good but the actual numbers are down, it must mean that the pro item average price goes up if I don't think wrong.

And that should also then mean that it will be harder and harder to enter into photography if the step in cost is high. Not a good development since it will just accelerate this development.

Loading…

nikonrumors.com

SQLGuy · Sep 7, 2019

For entering into photography, an A7II is just as good a camera today as it was when it was released. Even an A7 is a good starter camera for a serious enthusiast,... or a D750.

If camera companies price their new "entry level" cameras higher, that's fine, but it doesn't really raise the cost of entry for new photographers... just for new photographers who can't realize their vision without the latest features.

For pros, my impression is that wedding photographers, portrait photographers, etc, already have good enough tools, but sports and news photographers may be driven by competition with their peers to actually need to upgrade instead of just wanting to.

JRP64 · Sep 7, 2019

A vast majority of people are content with their smartphone cameras and I have even seen some great pictures taken from them. I think the camera market is going to settle down to two groups the serious amateur photographers and the professional photographers. There are always going to be basic camera bodies for the serious amateurs though they will probably be slightly higher in price and as for the professional photographers their cameras bodies will probably be higher as well though they probably won't notice it as much.

What concerns me is if a camera manufacturer one day says "I don't think we will be making cameras next year". I don't see this happen to Canon or Nikon, but Sony might if they get a new CEO or if the Sony A9II lays an egg. Sony is an electronics company and has a vast array of other products to cover the loss of the camera division. Just my opinion.

Tom Ames · Sep 7, 2019

lattesweden said:
This CIPA report is published on the Nikon rumors site, but it covers the whole industry.

Mirrorless is still holding up the best in value, but is going down in numbers (as well as everything else).

Since the value of sales still is good but the actual numbers are down, it must mean that the pro item average price goes up if I don't think wrong.

And that should also then mean that it will be harder and harder to enter into photography if the step in cost is high. Not a good development since it will just accelerate this development.

https://nikonrumors.com/2019/09/07/...-is-out-worse-than-previous-years-again.aspx/

But is the entry models that high priced?

No need to start with A9 or A7rIII

lattesweden · Sep 7, 2019

Tom Ames said:
lattesweden said:

This CIPA report is published on the Nikon rumors site, but it covers the whole industry.

Mirrorless is still holding up the best in value, but is going down in numbers (as well as everything else).

Since the value of sales still is good but the actual numbers are down, it must mean that the pro item average price goes up if I don't think wrong.

And that should also then mean that it will be harder and harder to enter into photography if the step in cost is high. Not a good development since it will just accelerate this development.

https://nikonrumors.com/2019/09/07/...-is-out-worse-than-previous-years-again.aspx/

Click to expand...

But is the entry models that high priced?

The APS-C Sony A6100 with the cheapest kit lens is 850 USD.

Member said:
No need to start with A9 or A7rIII

No, but the camera must bring enough advantages over a smartphone to be interesting.

John Mason · Sep 7, 2019

lattesweden said:
This CIPA report is published on the Nikon rumors site, but it covers the whole industry.

Mirrorless is still holding up the best in value, but is going down in numbers (as well as everything else).

Since the value of sales still is good but the actual numbers are down, it must mean that the pro item average price goes up if I don't think wrong.

And that should also then mean that it will be harder and harder to enter into photography if the step in cost is high. Not a good development since it will just accelerate this development.

https://nikonrumors.com/2019/09/07/...-is-out-worse-than-previous-years-again.aspx/

Yes - phones have already killed the P and S market but I think a lot of the change is how people view images now-a-days. If you are going for fine art wall prints then you can often benefit from as good a camera system as you can get. But if your output is for social media than even today's phones are often overkill.

Imo that is the biggest change affecting the industry. Even many print media magazines are moving to online as as they do their requirements for pictures to published are getting looser.

splashy · Sep 7, 2019

Right and camera sales will go down even more, if you compare the IQ of a modern phone with a cheaper model camera AND what you can do with the phone, it seems more than logical to me.

Often it's ridiculous to carry all this camerastuff around, if most people just want a picture on social media asap.

bob13bob · Sep 7, 2019

they're going down because they deserve to. there is a better camera on the market called the pixel 3a, which is $300.

this camera can do in body stiching hdr better than any other camera i've seen,

its tiny with a small sensor that somehow produces very good images

better auto hdr,

doesn't need processing (can't do pp either),

has amazing battery life,

auto backs itself up.

has amazing lcd screen better than any other ILC camera

it also happens to be a smart phone.

my best camera is my smart phone (not currently a pixel but i will rectify that next gen). it just also happens to be $300. my 2nd best camera is in the sig. A lot less value, but still worth it to me. If i had to choose only one, easy; the pixel.

related

https://www.dpreview.com/forums/thread/4424807

I really hope ILCS can be more competitive. that computational vudoo has gotten really amazing.

michoristo · Sep 7, 2019

Global smartphone sales are in decline as well. Probably market saturation of both cameras and phones.

picklepie · Sep 7, 2019

Doesn’t mean cameras are getting more expensive — just that more sales volume is going to the higher placed cameras. This is partially by design: camera makers are focused on $2000 FF models and aren’t really pushing the $500 entry level cameras.

Partially it’s the market: high end enthusiasts are still buying cameras. But the parent who used to buy a $500 entry camera for family pictures is now using his phone.

There are still plenty of very very cheap entries into photography and they are sticking around: cameras like the d3500 and a6000.

But further: phones are the entry camera. Some young people will get excited for photography from their phone and then will want to expand into “real” photography.

Thing is... your entry level aps-c with slow 16-50/18-55 kit lens really isn’t better than a good phone for most purposes. So that cheap entry point will get more and more skipped over. The market for this type of camera has probably fallen by 90% in 7 years.

Kiril Karaatanasov · Sep 7, 2019

Yes very good observation.

today the cheapest option to enter photography is DSLR. Lenses are much cheaper, cameras are cheaper. Just compare an a6100 kit with 16-50 and 55-200 compared to yesteryear Nikon or Canon kit. Yes the Sony is nicer but much more expensive too. That is the lowest Sony are willing to go at all.......

There are some good things though a7 + 85/1.8 is cheaper than a DSLR like d600 was with 85/1.8 G. So if you know what you want there may be options that deliver at decent price. I bet more than 90% of people here will not be able to tell difference between a7 and a7iii shot with 85/1.8. Of course with a7m3 the model can actually move while the picture is taken

SQLGuy · Sep 7, 2019

Kiril Karaatanasov said:
Yes very good observation.

today the cheapest option to enter photography is DSLR. Lenses are much cheaper, cameras are cheaper. Just compare an a6100 kit with 16-50 and 55-200 compared to yesteryear Nikon or Canon kit. Yes the Sony is nicer but much more expensive too. That is the lowest Sony are willing to go at all.......

There are some good things though a7 + 85/1.8 is cheaper than a DSLR like d600 was with 85/1.8 G. So if you know what you want there may be options that deliver at decent price. I bet more than 90% of people here will not be able to tell difference between a7 and a7iii shot with 85/1.8. Of course with a7m3 the model can actually move while the picture is taken

On sony.com the A6000, A5100, and A68 are still shown as current models. The A6000 + 16-50PZ = $649; or $699 for the A68 + kit.

But, yeah, the Nikon D3400 is more bang for the buck at $399 with its kit zoom.

It doesn't really appear that Sony is trying to compete for this segment.

Tord S Eriksson · Sep 7, 2019

Tom Ames said:
lattesweden said:

This CIPA report is published on the Nikon rumors site, but it covers the whole industry.

Mirrorless is still holding up the best in value, but is going down in numbers (as well as everything else).

Since the value of sales still is good but the actual numbers are down, it must mean that the pro item average price goes up if I don't think wrong.

And that should also then mean that it will be harder and harder to enter into photography if the step in cost is high. Not a good development since it will just accelerate this development.

https://nikonrumors.com/2019/09/07/...-is-out-worse-than-previous-years-again.aspx/

Click to expand...

But is the entry models that high priced?

There is at least at Nikon fewer and fewer basic models, and rumors tell us a lot of the basic models are gone for good, like the D600/610, the D5xxx range and probably more that I can't recall at the moment.

Beginner models are now very cheap, or around $300, with a good lens.

Member said:
No need to start with A9 or A7rIII

Right, unless the other camera makers fold.

Tord S Eriksson · Sep 7, 2019

picklepie said:
Doesn’t mean cameras are getting more expensive — just that more sales volume is going to the higher placed cameras. This is partially by design: camera makers are focused on $2000 FF models and aren’t really pushing the $500 entry level cameras.

Partially it’s the market: high end enthusiasts are still buying cameras. But the parent who used to buy a $500 entry camera for family pictures is now using his phone.

There are still plenty of very very cheap entries into photography and they are sticking around: cameras like the d3500 and a6000.

Even Ming Thein uses D3500, occasionally, which can be found for $300!

picklepie said:
But further: phones are the entry camera. Some young people will get excited for photography from their phone and then will want to expand into “real” photography.

Thing is... your entry level aps-c with slow 16-50/18-55 kit lens really isn’t better than a good phone for most purposes. So that cheap entry point will get more and more skipped over. The market for this type of camera has probably fallen by 90% in 7 years.

This is true, that for the focal lengths covered by a 'normal' lens the DSLR/MILC does not have that much more to give, over today's phones. It is more in the long end, and under bad lighting situations, and macro that cameras still are the masters, even for amateurs.

KingTing · Sep 7, 2019

JRP64 said:
A vast majority of people are content with their smartphone cameras and I have even seen some great pictures taken from them. I think the camera market is going to settle down to two groups the serious amateur photographers and the professional photographers. There are always going to be basic camera bodies for the serious amateurs though they will probably be slightly higher in price and as for the professional photographers their cameras bodies will probably be higher as well though they probably won't notice it as much.

What concerns me is if a camera manufacturer one day says "I don't think we will be making cameras next year". I don't see this happen to Canon or Nikon, but Sony might if they get a new CEO or if the Sony A9II lays an egg. Sony is an electronics company and has a vast array of other products to cover the loss of the camera division. Just my opinion.

lattesweden · Sep 8, 2019

Tord S Eriksson said:
picklepie said:

Doesn’t mean cameras are getting more expensive — just that more sales volume is going to the higher placed cameras. This is partially by design: camera makers are focused on $2000 FF models and aren’t really pushing the $500 entry level cameras.

Partially it’s the market: high end enthusiasts are still buying cameras. But the parent who used to buy a $500 entry camera for family pictures is now using his phone.

There are still plenty of very very cheap entries into photography and they are sticking around: cameras like the d3500 and a6000.

Click to expand...

Even Ming Thein uses D3500, occasionally, which can be found for $300!

The 3500 line is one of those that won't be continued it seems:

Loading…

nikonrumors.com

Tord S Eriksson said:
Tord S Eriksson said:

But further: phones are the entry camera. Some young people will get excited for photography from their phone and then will want to expand into “real” photography.

Thing is... your entry level aps-c with slow 16-50/18-55 kit lens really isn’t better than a good phone for most purposes. So that cheap entry point will get more and more skipped over. The market for this type of camera has probably fallen by 90% in 7 years.

Click to expand...

This is true, that for the focal lengths covered by a 'normal' lens the DSLR/MILC does not have that much more to give, over today's phones. It is more in the long end, and under bad lighting situations, and macro that cameras still are the masters, even for amateurs.

You need a special lens for getting close with a camera, where most smartphones have very good close up possibilities.

The Oppo 10x optical zoom is available in one of their own smartphones at the moment, more manufacturers will most likely come with similar solutions. It is 16-160 mm equivalent and lays down in the phone body and has a 45 degrees mirror at the end. It also uses TOF (Time Of Flight), in this case a laser for AF so very precise and can build a complete deep map with that.

Loading…

www.oppo.com

MILC man · Sep 8, 2019

Mirrorless Shipped Value +4%
DSLR Shipped Value -45%

Mirrorless unit share (of Mirrorless + DSLR): 44%
Mirrorless Shipped Value share: 59%

the market for cheap dslrs is fading fast.

lattesweden · Sep 8, 2019

MILC man said:
Mirrorless Shipped Value +4%
DSLR Shipped Value -45%

Mirrorless unit share (of Mirrorless + DSLR): 44%
Mirrorless Shipped Value share: 59%

the market for cheap dslrs is fading fast.

Yes, I guess that is where the largest drop is at the moment. After the smartphones took the compacts from more than 100 million units per year about ten years ago to about 10% in volume these days, I guess the budget DSLRs are the next to go this route.

picklepie · Sep 8, 2019

Tord S Eriksson said:
picklepie said:

Doesn’t mean cameras are getting more expensive — just that more sales volume is going to the higher placed cameras. This is partially by design: camera makers are focused on $2000 FF models and aren’t really pushing the $500 entry level cameras.

Partially it’s the market: high end enthusiasts are still buying cameras. But the parent who used to buy a $500 entry camera for family pictures is now using his phone.

There are still plenty of very very cheap entries into photography and they are sticking around: cameras like the d3500 and a6000.

Click to expand...

Even Ming Thein uses D3500, occasionally, which can be found for $300!

Tord S Eriksson said:

But further: phones are the entry camera. Some young people will get excited for photography from their phone and then will want to expand into “real” photography.

Thing is... your entry level aps-c with slow 16-50/18-55 kit lens really isn’t better than a good phone for most purposes. So that cheap entry point will get more and more skipped over. The market for this type of camera has probably fallen by 90% in 7 years.

Click to expand...

This is true, that for the focal lengths covered by a 'normal' lens the DSLR/MILC does not have that much more to give, over today's phones. It is more in the long end, and under bad lighting situations, and macro that cameras still are the masters, even for amateurs.

--

Actually, phones are much better at macro than kit dslr lenses.

What you’re missing: very very few entry level photographers even know when a macro lens is, and they generally aren’t willing to buy an additional lens that costs more than the body.

I’d submit that today’s best phones are better in low light than an aps-c camera with kit lens. (Remember, the newest iPhones use a 1.8 aperture and advanced computational photography to make up for small sensor size) Same goes for bokeh — with computational photography, the phone is better than the kit lens.

Yes, entry level shooters can still enjoy the benefits of telephoto shooting if they go beyond the 18-55 lens... but a huge portion of those entry level shooters would never add a second lens. Some are intimidated by the process of changing lenses, they don’t see the reason to spend extra money on a second lens, or they don’t want the bulk of carrying a separate lens.

For years, I’ve taught an adult class geared to those who want to get more out of their ILCs. Very common for a student to walk in with a 7 year old dslr, and they’ve never changed the lens. I’d say about 50% have never owned/used more than 1 lens. 90% have never owned or use more than a basic 18-55 and 55-250 type of setup. (The other 10% may have a nifty fifty or something)

Tord S Eriksson said:
tordseriksson (at) gmail.....
Owner of 1 Olympus, 1 Ricoh, and a handful of Nikon, cameras.

SilvanBromide · Sep 8, 2019

JRP64 said:
...What concerns me is if a camera manufacturer one day says "I don't think we will be making cameras next year". I don't see this happen to Canon or Nikon, but Sony might ...

None of the 'big three' is likely to simply withdraw from the market anytime soon - they have far too much invested.

Far more likely is that one or more of them might sell their business to a competitor (somewhat in the fashion that Konica sold the Minolta brand to Sony some years back).

O don't expect either to happen very soon. However in the longer run, I suspect Sony is more likely to acquire another camera business than to sell the one they've invested so much in the success of.

--
Former Canon, Nikon and Pentax user.
Online Gallery: https://500px.com/raycologon

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