Future of Panasonic / Nikon in Mirrorless FF

I'm just wondering what you guys think about them. Just a disclaimer I do not favour any system and I try to be as objective as possible.

Nikon buys the sensors from Sony (which always makes them have the second best or ideally equal sensor as Sony) ,also they don't have good AF technology for mirrorless (probably the worst among mirrorless FF). On top of that their acclaimed Z Mount hasn't any lens that really makes you consider to switch. (The 14-30 f4 is not super sharp and the rest is as good as Sony's offering or maybe marignally better).

I think it was a bad idea to start with the pro body if it hasn't even good Continous AF, or dual card slots. And even if they developed a good AF, Sony and Canon, might already be so far ahead in the learning curve that it's impossible to catch up. On top of that Nikon is much smaller than Canon, Sony or Panasonic, I guess that means they can't develop a good lens system as quickly. Furthermore they are the most likely to be pushed out of the market if it shrinkens further and competition stiffens.

Canon on the other hand is still doing the sensors themselves and they might have something up their sleeve. Also they have Dual AF and some really promising RF lenses (small 70-200, 28-70 f2, the new 50mm 1.2) and their adapter let's you use drop in filters. On top of that they are the market leader and could handle more losses than Nikon.

Panasonic: Their new cameras offer neglible improvement of IQ for a much bulkier and more expensive camera. Ironically Panasonic which targeted hybrid shooters might not reach their audience at all because of their Depth of Defocus system. Also the L-mount is less wide than Nikon or Canon's, so one cannot expect too much considering innovative lens design. I think especially of their new 50mm 1.4,h which is as big as Canon's new 50mm RF 1.2 and one third of a stop slower(maybe it is better corrected or sharper but I don't think you would see a massive difference). Their lens lineup is not bad considering all Sigma lenses, but if you put a heavy lens on an already bulky body then it adds up quickly. Their high res mode might appeal to product photographers though.

I shoot stills only so correct me if I forgot an important point. I am happy to hear your opinions.

Student of Light said:

Furthermore they [Nikon] are the most likely to be pushed out of the market if it shrinkens further and competition stiffens.

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Nikon financially needs to make cameras. Sony doesn't.

Sony's newish CEO was (Reuters) " a forceful partner who pushed through many controversial changes, including the sale of its Vaio PC division and spinning off its TV business."

If the camera market continues to contract, Sony may eventually (not soon) give cameras the Vaio treatment.

Student of Light said:

...

Canon on the other hand is still doing the sensors themselves and they might have something up their sleeve. . . .

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It's not really fair to compare actual products to something that "they might have up their sleeve". The hypothetical product will win every time because we are all somewhat guilty of wishful thinking.

Good point, they might drop the consumer camera market altogether if it's not profitable enough. Same for Panasonic though. Does anybody know why Sony started doing camera sensors in the first place?

Fair enough. On the other hand Nikon's future sensor could only be as good as Sony's. It is not confirmed that the S1 or S1R use Sony sensors but their performance is suspiciously close. I think almost everyone is using sensors developed by Sony (GFX 50R, Phase One), so I really hope Canon can compete (could be bad to have a sensor technology monopoly).

Student of Light said:

I'm just wondering what you guys think about them. Just a disclaimer I do not favour any system and I try to be as objective as possible.

Nikon buys the sensors from Sony (which always makes them have the second best or ideally equal sensor as Sony) ,also they don't have good AF technology for mirrorless (probably the worst among mirrorless FF). On top of that their acclaimed Z Mount hasn't any lens that really makes you consider to switch. (The 14-30 f4 is not super sharp and the rest is as good as Sony's offering or maybe marignally better).

I think it was a bad idea to start with the pro body if it hasn't even good Continous AF, or dual card slots. And even if they developed a good AF, Sony and Canon, might already be so far ahead in the learning curve that it's impossible to catch up. On top of that Nikon is much smaller than Canon, Sony or Panasonic, I guess that means they can't develop a good lens system as quickly. Furthermore they are the most likely to be pushed out of the market if it shrinkens further and competition stiffens.

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"Shrinkens". My candidate for word of the week.

Student of Light said:

Canon on the other hand is still doing the sensors themselves and they might have something up their sleeve. Also they have Dual AF and some really promising RF lenses (small 70-200, 28-70 f2, the new 50mm 1.2) and their adapter let's you use drop in filters. On top of that they are the market leader and could handle more losses than Nikon.

Panasonic: Their new cameras offer neglible improvement of IQ for a much bulkier and more expensive camera. Ironically Panasonic which targeted hybrid shooters might not reach their audience at all because of their Depth of Defocus system. Also the L-mount is less wide than Nikon or Canon's, so one cannot expect too much considering innovative lens design. I think especially of their new 50mm 1.4,h which is as big as Canon's new 50mm RF 1.2 and one third of a stop slower(maybe it is better corrected or sharper but I don't think you would see a massive difference). Their lens lineup is not bad considering all Sigma lenses, but if you put a heavy lens on an already bulky body then it adds up quickly. Their high res mode might appeal to product photographers though.

I shoot stills only so correct me if I forgot an important point. I am happy to hear your opinions.

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Student of Light said:

Good point, they might drop the consumer camera market altogether if it's not profitable enough. Same for Panasonic though. Does anybody know why Sony started doing camera sensors in the first place?

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I bet it’s the smartphone camera sensors that’s the real goldmine for Sony Semiconductors. Dedicated cameras which you probably are thinking about is just a small shrinking niche.

My opinion is.... The new cameras today are way better than the stuff they had 3 to 5 years ago. There are features in all the Nikon Sony and Panasonic FF cameras that take skilled photographers to a new level of shooting. And shooting in conditions and situations they never could 3 to 5 years ago. That's only if they want to.

All the lowdowers of features that you mention need some investigation and more looking into to see the reality of what they truly are. I have no clue if what you say is correct. But I do know that cameras are great and not perfect. Regardless of brand, they all have strengths and weaknesses. All of them. But they are a lot better than they once were. And, you can bet there are tons of pros using them as we speak.

All systems have pros and cons.

The Z lenses have been excellent so far and good value. The 14-30mm F4 S seems to compromise some IQ (still very good) for less weight and size, looks to have some quality control issues for now.

Panasonic are amazing at providing all the tech anyone can want in extremely tough bodies, unfortunately AF is the only thing that isn't cutting-edge.

Student of Light said:

Good point, they might drop the consumer camera market altogether if it's not profitable enough. Same for Panasonic though. Does anybody know why Sony started doing camera sensors in the first place?

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Probably because there is high demand for them,

security, industry,cellphones, photography, film industry, driverless cars will be next demand, dashcams . The list is long all using sensors.

Student of Light said:

Nikon buys the sensors from Sony (which always makes them have the second best or ideally equal sensor as Sony)

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Sony does not sell subpar sensor to its customers as they get more money from the sensor bussiness than by camera and lens sales.

Student of Light said:

,also they don't have good AF technology for mirrorless (probably the worst among mirrorless FF).

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But they do. Just look at Nikon 1. AF tracking is behind but they will improve it. Anyway, both Canon and Panasonic are behind Nikon in AF in mirrorless cameras.

Student of Light said:

On top of that Nikon is much smaller than Canon, Sony or Panasonic, I guess that means they can't develop a good lens system as quickly.

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Nikon developed a lot of good lenses as quick as the competition.

Student of Light said:

Canon on the other hand is still doing the sensors themselves

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And that is not an asset for them. They lag behind in IQ.

Student of Light said:

Also they have Dual AF and some really promising RF lenses

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DPAF is way slower than OSPDAF.

Student of Light said:

Panasonic: Their new cameras offer neglible improvement of IQ for a much bulkier and more expensive camera. Ironically Panasonic which targeted hybrid shooters might not reach their audience at all because of their Depth of Defocus system. Also the L-mount is less wide than Nikon or Canon's, so one cannot expect too much considering innovative lens design. I think especially of their new 50mm 1.4,h which is as big as Canon's new 50mm RF 1.2 and one third of a stop slower(maybe it is better corrected or sharper but I don't think you would see a massive difference). Their lens lineup is not bad considering all Sigma lenses, but if you put a heavy lens on an already bulky body then it adds up quickly. Their high res mode might appeal to product photographers though.

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All mirrorless systems lacked something at the beginning. Time will tell if Panasonic was right and if they will succeed.

The way I see it, m4/3 will die, possibly APS-C from Nikon, Canon and Sony, too. Pentax will die.

Nikon, Canon, Sony and Panasonic will survive, possible Fuji, too. DSLRs will die some time in the future but that day hans't come yet.

We might see some rising stars from China. As companies such as Xiaomi and Youngnuo released some mirrorless cameras - which kind of suck but they have the time and money to refine them again and again.

justmeMN said:

Student of Light said:

Furthermore they [Nikon] are the most likely to be pushed out of the market if it shrinkens further and competition stiffens.

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Nikon financially needs to make cameras. Sony doesn't.

Sony's newish CEO was (Reuters) " a forceful partner who pushed through many controversial changes, including the sale of its Vaio PC division and spinning off its TV business."

If the camera market continues to contract, Sony may eventually (not soon) give cameras the Vaio treatment.

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Samsung has that kind of money that they didn't even bothered to sell its camera division to someone else, they just closed it when it didn't yield the rapid profits they hoped for.

Sony can't afford that. I wonder who can buy a camera company in 2020's. Maybe some very rich company such as Apple and Google will buy it for patents and after that close it.

They might not find a client to sell it.

Right now, their camera division does good so they don't have any reason to sell it.

Student of Light said:

Fair enough. On the other hand Nikon's future sensor could only be as good as Sony's. It is not confirmed that the S1 or S1R use Sony sensors but their performance is suspiciously close.

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Dpreview TV found that IQ on S1 and S1R is behind that from Sony sensors.

Student of Light said:

Does anybody know why Sony started doing camera sensors in the first place?

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Can't be 100% sure, but hopefully some clues:

Back in prehistoric times, Sony used to make video cameras (much like now) and used to really push CCDs a lot in its advertising on its video cameras. They were kings of miniaturisation. Making sensors was probably very important to their leadership position in video cameras. Of course they had the usual competition too.

https://www.sony.net/Fun/design/history/1980.html

They were sensor pioneers back then, just like now.

I think they make good system options. No need to speculate further into the future.

DeathArrow said:

DeathArrow said:

On the other hand Nikon's future sensor could only be as good as Sony's.

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A few times in the past other manufacturers have made better use of the sensors than Sony itself.

"Pentax will die."

Perhaps, but if I asked you five years ago which of Pentax or the giant Samsung's camera systems would die, what would your answer have been?

No one knows really.

Nikon: Clearly aiming at the high end, but a good offering both bodies and lenses. No clear entry level offering for mirrorless and the F mount must be questionable long term.

Canon: Made a more rounded offer but their APS-C line doesn't fit in with the full frame stuff. Like Nikon the DSLR mount must be at risk in the long term.

Sony: Is ruthless with product lines from time to time, it is actually their trademark. OTOH an integrated offer from entry to pro leves.

Fuji: Two serious camera ranges but a minority player and their low end offering is limited.

M43: Olympus has dropped the ball with big cameras and Panasonic has full frame. Does that mean the format is at risk if Panasonic does well in full frame and Olympus does bady as a whole? Olympus isn't a secure company and Panasonic, like Sony has lots of non-photographic business. I can see M43 becoming basically a video only format.

Pentax: Nothing in mirrorless so they are betting the DSLR has longer life than the others.

Student of Light said:

Nikon buys the sensors from Sony (which always makes them have the second best or ideally equal sensor as Sony) ,also they don't have good AF technology for mirrorless (probably the worst among mirrorless FF).

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This is often stated with that inference that sensors in Sony cameras must be better than those in Nikon (or others that use Sony manufactured sensors). This is simply not how the sensor business works. Sony Semiconductors is a separate business to the camera business. Sure, they sell standard off the shelf sensors but they actually supply and licence their tech to anyone and their customers (inc Sony Cameras) can use this and design their own sensors often bringing in their own tech (proprietary or licensed from yet other parties) into their specific sensor designs. Consequently, Sony Cameras sensors, Nikon and others, can/do share some foundational features with others using Sony Semiconductor fab but they are still different albeit ‘cousins’. At any given point, any customer of Sony Semiconductor can be ahead of others. In a real sense, they (and by extension, we) all benefit from this. Of course, Sony Corporation is the real beneficiary as it is making a turn on component manufacturing and then end user device sales across its multiple businesses (Cameras, Professional and Broadcast etc.) but that’s a different story.

It’s similar with ARM chips where the design of those is shared and licensed and forms the basis of vast ranges of CPUs in many low power devices like our phones and, yes, cameras where they provide the other critical component running our gear (i.e. it’s not just about the sensor but what you do with it and its data).

Any clairvoyants on the forum?

Sorry, having read past the first post I see that, yes, there are plenty.