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This chart graphs camera sales from 1933-2015. Light grey is analog (film) cameras sales. Blue is compact digital. Green is digital SLR. Red is mirrorless. Gold is smartphone sales.
The interesting thing to consider was there has been one other time historically where there was a paradigm shift in cameras that generated a bubble. Until the 1930's cameras were big - either view cameras requiring a tripod for use or "press cameras" which were nothing more than hand held view camera (often missions some movements) using either film holders or roll film holders.
The 35 mm film came along and when it became usable - particularly when 35 mm TriX came along Leica had already introduced the 35 mm camera. At that point the Leica started to replace the Press Cameras. It is not a stretch to say Leica reported all the important events from WWII through the mid 1950's - especially with the advent of the wonderful new film by Kodak Tri-X. But that didn't generate a great rush for people to buy cameras since Leica's were damn expensive. The range finder also had some limitations for all around photography. The range finder only supported a limited range of lenses fully - 28 through 135 (and 135 not well) for the Leica. There were twin lens reflex cameras which were big and weren't all that popular.
Then the reflex camera came along in the 1950 and everything changed. It caught on because it was extremely flexible. Color film had become half way descent by then. That spawned the push by Kodak to make photography easier and mainstream and hence the 126 format film cartage and the Kodak camera to shoot it. It because an instant hit for Buffy the Little League mom (we didn't play soccer in the US then) and the that era was the birth of the "camera enthusiast." This resulted in an up tick in sales and things stabilized at a nice level. Of course here there was a bubble as like any fad many tried it and not all stuck with it. But the bubble was small and its deflating didn't came a major disruption.
Then in the 1990's digital hits and no longer do you have to sent you film to a lab. Combine that with the advent of the Internet in the mid 1990's and digital photography took off. Take a shot, come home and sent it off to Grandma. This resulted in the unsustainable growth that we saw in the early to mid 2000's. But alas, cell phones started to incorporate camera chips. Then Apple introduced the iPhone - and we had the birth of the smart phone. Steve Jobs had been talking about something missing and in 2007 the iPhone was introduced. The rest is history as the users of smartphones found - "man I don't have to wait till I get home, download my images to a computer and send pictures of my precious little urchin to grandma, I just take the shot and send it - wham bam thank you Ma'am, done." This smartphone, "I can trash my walkman and iPod, trash my camera, and only carry one device that I can sent text, emails, listen to music, look at pictures and take pictures and videos that are getting better not only with every new model but with every new OS upgrade! Oh it will also take and let me make phone calls. Life is good."
Of course it took a few years for others to catch up to Apple and for the whole smartphone thing to capture a generation but it did and about 2010-2011 the wheels came off the stand along camera market. The compact market - particularly point and shoot was hit hardest but DSLR's and Mirrorless have taken it in the shorts also. Interesting I read an article some time back comporting the current state of the DSLR/high end mirrorless market with the SLR market prior to digital. Accounting for the growth rate of the SLR market - the current state of the DSLR/high end mirrorless is about at the same level as the SLR market projected as if digital had not happened. So a huge bubble was generated this time, the smartphone market poked a hole it it in about 2010/2011 and it's been deflating ever since.
Will there be a demand for high end stand alone camera in the future - of course. Will it be much more than now - probably not. Does the current generation smartphone photographer want something more - maybe but he is getting a lot more as Apple/Google/Samsun push the limits with multiple sensors, multiple lenses, AI based computational photography that he would probably get out a Fuji or Sony, etc. unless he was a spec hound. I suspect the evolution of smartphone photography will be enough for the vast majority of that segment.
So for Sony or Fuji or Nikon - pick your company to expand in that market segment which is by far the biggest today they will have to find a new paradigm. They recognize the problem but I'm not sure they have the resources to take on two of the worlds largest companies whose bread and butter is S/W and smart processing who if they see someone else doing something smart - they just buy them, all their patents and integrate it.
But the current approach which Fuji seems to be taking of shoehorning - into their current platforms will not work to penetrate that market to any extent.
I am sure at business schools around the world, this will someday (if not now) will be a required case study along with the rise and fall of the US commercial aviation industry seeing many of the original airlines that were the crown jewels at one time be forced out of business, e.g., Pan American, Trans World, etc.
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Truman
www.pbase.com/tprevatt
