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Will DSLR be replaced by mirrorless?

Will DSLR be replaced by mirrorless?

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Jonathan Brady

Jonathan Brady

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I was reading Scott Kelby's Q&A about the EOS R and he mentioned
Member said:
In the big picture, I think they see it replacing mirror-based cameras altogether at some point (just my opinion)
Click to expand...
Now, I've read such proclamations before, but what struck me about this is that he is sponsored by Canon (actually, I don't know if he still is or not but I remember he was at least a few years ago because the Internet flipped out when he switched away from being sponsored by Nikon), yet this is NOT the message that Canon is sending it's customers. Obviously, Canon wouldn't say this because whatever timeline they put on it, people will freak out TODAY which would hurt their bottom line now and for a long time to come. So, they, like Nikon, need to convince their customers to transition slowly, assuming mirrorless market dominance in the future is inevitable.

So, credit to Scott for sharing his true thoughts despite the fact that they may not be consistent with Canon's messaging.

That said, I'm curious to know what the DPR community at large thinks about this.

In a poll, there are only so many options I can think of so I'll ask folks to type out a reply if they don't see an answer that matches their thoughts. And, of course, feel free to reply with any thoughts on the topic.

In this particular poll, I'll use the measure of market share of new sales as the reference point for DSLR replacing mirrorless - and let's set it at 60% MILC and 40% DSLR. Obviously, at that point, there will still be more DSLR in use because of past sales volume, but I think that's a fairly good indicator that the winds have shifted for good.

*MILC = Mirrorless Interchangeable Lens Camera
*Again, for the purposes of this poll, "outsell* means that 60% of interchangeable lens camera sales are mirrorless cameras and 40% are DSLR cameras.
 
Too many answer choices. I think that Canon and Nikon put ML on the map. The wider mount and the new lenses, existent and coming would lead to a decline of the dSLRs. I do not think that they will disappear any time soon but the balance will change faster than it has been changing recently for sure. With an R or an Z, you can use all lenses of that brand. With a dSLR, you cannot use about half of the new ones.
 
Well, once you could read the image off the sensor, the SLR was doomed. The only reason SLR's existed was that you could see through the lens. Now there's a way to do that without moving parts.

There are still issues because SLR's have been developed very well over many years but pretty soon, every SLR advantage will be eclipsed. So there will be no reason to have a mirror mechanism anymore. No grief about that; the cameras will only get better.

I'm quite sure that my D750 is the last DSLR I will ever buy. Now, it's a really good camera and I'm not in the market for a new one but there's no path forward from it.
 
Dslr can do a lot, and indeed does better than MILC in some departments without doubt. That is to say, MILC still needs certain technology break through, like energy efficiency, better CAF, faster computational power for 0 live view (evf) lag etc. It also need time for Canon and Nikon to built up their new mount lenses before making MILC be really comparable to the current dslrs.

However, all of the recent shortage of MILC are capable to improve. Just a matter of time.

The current spec of Z and R just make them one of The FF MILCs of the market, no wow factor that can change the tide yet.

When MILC can do as good as dslr, but provide a lot of functions that a mirror does not allow, it will eventually replace dslr. Digital had replaced film and the history will repeat no doubt.

Just a matter of when.

--
Albert
 
Last edited:
If prices for ML don't go down they will hardly override DSLR for a long period of time. At the moment there is a hype and maybe sales numbers for ML will be higher than DSLR sales for a couple of years - but there is a second mechanism that will influence sales numbers: Cell phones.

The IQ from cell phones grows in a dramatic way. Cell phones are the most compact way of doing photography. Cell phones will be the strongest competitor of ML systems.

While DSLR will keep it customers maybe a lower level comared to the actual situation ML will have to fight against cell phone technology.

DSLR will havve a chance to enter a mass market if they offer good technology at a lower price. If ML systems go on the very expensive way they will limit their market share. I remember cheap SLR cameras like Pentax K1000. That days a lot of brands had products in this class. I entered the Pentax wolrd in the 1970ties because of best price/performance ratio. Nowadays a lot of people are cut off from the world of photography (except of smartphone photography) as they can't afford the new cameras and lenses.

If I think of Pentax as a brand offering no ML system they may could get a chance on a mass market. They have good entry level bodies and good zoom lenses in this class. There is a chance for them - but to realize it they will have to invent the magic of marketing&advertising, first - together with the usage of sales systems they already have. Pentax is not present in many countries - but Ricoh is almost everywhere. I don't know why they do not use these systems to push the sales and offer a net for support.

Best regards

Holger
 
Jonathan Brady said:
I was reading Scott Kelby's Q&A about the EOS R and he mentioned
Jonathan Brady said:
In the big picture, I think they see it replacing mirror-based cameras altogether at some point (just my opinion)
Click to expand...
Now, I've read such proclamations before, but what struck me about this is that he is sponsored by Canon (actually, I don't know if he still is or not but I remember he was at least a few years ago because the Internet flipped out when he switched away from being sponsored by Nikon), yet this is NOT the message that Canon is sending it's customers. Obviously, Canon wouldn't say this because whatever timeline they put on it, people will freak out TODAY which would hurt their bottom line now and for a long time to come. So, they, like Nikon, need to convince their customers to transition slowly, assuming mirrorless market dominance in the future is inevitable.

So, credit to Scott for sharing his true thoughts despite the fact that they may not be consistent with Canon's messaging.

That said, I'm curious to know what the DPR community at large thinks about this.

In a poll, there are only so many options I can think of so I'll ask folks to type out a reply if they don't see an answer that matches their thoughts. And, of course, feel free to reply with any thoughts on the topic.

In this particular poll, I'll use the measure of market share of new sales as the reference point for DSLR replacing mirrorless - and let's set it at 60% MILC and 40% DSLR. Obviously, at that point, there will still be more DSLR in use because of past sales volume, but I think that's a fairly good indicator that the winds have shifted for good.

*MILC = Mirrorless Interchangeable Lens Camera
*Again, for the purposes of this poll, "outsell* means that 60% of interchangeable lens camera sales are mirrorless cameras and 40% are DSLR cameras.
Click to expand...
If Nikon and/or Canon's new entries were truly equal to A7xxx and/or A9, I would absolutely have answered 1-2 years. But Nikon obviously did not equal A9, and combined with Canon's "M" vs "R" confusion, will DELAY that so I selected 2-4 years.

But 5+ is also a "possibility" if they continue to offer low-price dSLR "kits".

That can be shortened IF they can reduce EVF latency to compete w/ dSLR "0" lag.

But I think Canon made a big mistake w/ two competing lens-mounts.
 
Last edited:
Jonsi said:
This discussion is long overdue here. I don't know why the MILC vs DSLR debate is so rare at DPR. Excellent question attached to an equally excellent poll, OP.

Congrats on blazing new trails.
Click to expand...
If only we could all somehow avoid threads which don't interest us, DPR would be a better place, right? I mean, there should be some sort of color coding, or perhaps an initialism, or something to tell us what the contents of a thread are about so that we don't have to waste our time clicking on it, much less reading it, and even worse, taking the time to reply to let the OP know that we have no interest in discussing what they wish to discuss. Oh, I know! Some sort of "bat signal" that gets blasted into the sky! No... That won't work... Hmmm, what about submitting to a battery of tests where they can figure out what we like and don't and every thread can have this emoji 💩 or this one 🌟?

There's a site feedback forum, perhaps you should go there and make a suggestion for such a feature...

Or, you could just use the thread titles as a cue. 🤔
 
PhotoTeach2 said:
Jonathan Brady said:
I was reading Scott Kelby's Q&A about the EOS R and he mentioned
PhotoTeach2 said:
In the big picture, I think they see it replacing mirror-based cameras altogether at some point (just my opinion)
Click to expand...
Now, I've read such proclamations before, but what struck me about this is that he is sponsored by Canon (actually, I don't know if he still is or not but I remember he was at least a few years ago because the Internet flipped out when he switched away from being sponsored by Nikon), yet this is NOT the message that Canon is sending it's customers. Obviously, Canon wouldn't say this because whatever timeline they put on it, people will freak out TODAY which would hurt their bottom line now and for a long time to come. So, they, like Nikon, need to convince their customers to transition slowly, assuming mirrorless market dominance in the future is inevitable.

So, credit to Scott for sharing his true thoughts despite the fact that they may not be consistent with Canon's messaging.

That said, I'm curious to know what the DPR community at large thinks about this.

In a poll, there are only so many options I can think of so I'll ask folks to type out a reply if they don't see an answer that matches their thoughts. And, of course, feel free to reply with any thoughts on the topic.

In this particular poll, I'll use the measure of market share of new sales as the reference point for DSLR replacing mirrorless - and let's set it at 60% MILC and 40% DSLR. Obviously, at that point, there will still be more DSLR in use because of past sales volume, but I think that's a fairly good indicator that the winds have shifted for good.

*MILC = Mirrorless Interchangeable Lens Camera
*Again, for the purposes of this poll, "outsell* means that 60% of interchangeable lens camera sales are mirrorless cameras and 40% are DSLR cameras.
Click to expand...
If Nikon and/or Canon's new entries were truly equal to A7xxx and/or A9, I would absolutely have answered 1-2 years. But Nikon obviously did not equal A9, and combined with Canon's "M" vs "R" confusion, will DELAY that so I selected 2-4 years.

But 5+ is also a "possibility" if they continue to offer low-price dSLR "kits".

That can be shortened IF they can reduce EVF latency to compete w/ dSLR "0" lag.

But I think Canon made a big mistake w/ two competing lens-mounts.
Click to expand...
Canon consider themselves being big enought to have different ILS systems, which migh be true. Time will tell..
 
"Something else OP didn't have the foresight to consider (aka, I'm leaving a comment)"

No body knows: if, when.

SLRs were not replaced my MILCs 100%.

So, DSLRs will not be replaced by MILCs 100%.
 
biza43 said:
"Something else OP didn't have the foresight to consider (aka, I'm leaving a comment)"

No body knows: if, when.

SLRs were not replaced my MILCs 100%.

So, DSLRs will not be replaced by MILCs 100%.
Click to expand...
100% wasn't the threshold I was looking for. 60% was, which, to me, indicates that the market has shifted and more than likely, for good.
 
TeddyD said:
PhotoTeach2 said:
Jonathan Brady said:
I was reading Scott Kelby's Q&A about the EOS R and he mentioned
TeddyD said:
In the big picture, I think they see it replacing mirror-based cameras altogether at some point (just my opinion)
Click to expand...
Now, I've read such proclamations before, but what struck me about this is that he is sponsored by Canon (actually, I don't know if he still is or not but I remember he was at least a few years ago because the Internet flipped out when he switched away from being sponsored by Nikon), yet this is NOT the message that Canon is sending it's customers. Obviously, Canon wouldn't say this because whatever timeline they put on it, people will freak out TODAY which would hurt their bottom line now and for a long time to come. So, they, like Nikon, need to convince their customers to transition slowly, assuming mirrorless market dominance in the future is inevitable.

So, credit to Scott for sharing his true thoughts despite the fact that they may not be consistent with Canon's messaging.

That said, I'm curious to know what the DPR community at large thinks about this.

In a poll, there are only so many options I can think of so I'll ask folks to type out a reply if they don't see an answer that matches their thoughts. And, of course, feel free to reply with any thoughts on the topic.

In this particular poll, I'll use the measure of market share of new sales as the reference point for DSLR replacing mirrorless - and let's set it at 60% MILC and 40% DSLR. Obviously, at that point, there will still be more DSLR in use because of past sales volume, but I think that's a fairly good indicator that the winds have shifted for good.

*MILC = Mirrorless Interchangeable Lens Camera
*Again, for the purposes of this poll, "outsell* means that 60% of interchangeable lens camera sales are mirrorless cameras and 40% are DSLR cameras.
Click to expand...
If Nikon and/or Canon's new entries were truly equal to A7xxx and/or A9, I would absolutely have answered 1-2 years. But Nikon obviously did not equal A9, and combined with Canon's "M" vs "R" confusion, will DELAY that so I selected 2-4 years.

But 5+ is also a "possibility" if they continue to offer low-price dSLR "kits".

That can be shortened IF they can reduce EVF latency to compete w/ dSLR "0" lag.

But I think Canon made a big mistake w/ two competing lens-mounts.
Click to expand...
Canon consider themselves being big enought to have different ILS systems, which migh be true. Time will tell..
Click to expand...
I think it will be a big problem for Canon.

Many Nikon DX buyers specifically get FX lenses so they can later upgrade. And/Or ... FX cameras can use DX lenses.

Indeed Sony's growth has been slower than probable w/out their multiple mounts.
 
PhotoTeach2 said:
TeddyD said:
PhotoTeach2 said:
Jonathan Brady said:
I was reading Scott Kelby's Q&A about the EOS R and he mentioned
PhotoTeach2 said:
In the big picture, I think they see it replacing mirror-based cameras altogether at some point (just my opinion)
Click to expand...
Now, I've read such proclamations before, but what struck me about this is that he is sponsored by Canon (actually, I don't know if he still is or not but I remember he was at least a few years ago because the Internet flipped out when he switched away from being sponsored by Nikon), yet this is NOT the message that Canon is sending it's customers. Obviously, Canon wouldn't say this because whatever timeline they put on it, people will freak out TODAY which would hurt their bottom line now and for a long time to come. So, they, like Nikon, need to convince their customers to transition slowly, assuming mirrorless market dominance in the future is inevitable.

So, credit to Scott for sharing his true thoughts despite the fact that they may not be consistent with Canon's messaging.

That said, I'm curious to know what the DPR community at large thinks about this.

In a poll, there are only so many options I can think of so I'll ask folks to type out a reply if they don't see an answer that matches their thoughts. And, of course, feel free to reply with any thoughts on the topic.

In this particular poll, I'll use the measure of market share of new sales as the reference point for DSLR replacing mirrorless - and let's set it at 60% MILC and 40% DSLR. Obviously, at that point, there will still be more DSLR in use because of past sales volume, but I think that's a fairly good indicator that the winds have shifted for good.

*MILC = Mirrorless Interchangeable Lens Camera
*Again, for the purposes of this poll, "outsell* means that 60% of interchangeable lens camera sales are mirrorless cameras and 40% are DSLR cameras.
Click to expand...
If Nikon and/or Canon's new entries were truly equal to A7xxx and/or A9, I would absolutely have answered 1-2 years. But Nikon obviously did not equal A9, and combined with Canon's "M" vs "R" confusion, will DELAY that so I selected 2-4 years.

But 5+ is also a "possibility" if they continue to offer low-price dSLR "kits".

That can be shortened IF they can reduce EVF latency to compete w/ dSLR "0" lag.

But I think Canon made a big mistake w/ two competing lens-mounts.
Click to expand...
Canon consider themselves being big enought to have different ILS systems, which migh be true. Time will tell..
Click to expand...
I think it will be a big problem for Canon.

Many Nikon DX buyers specifically get FX lenses so they can later upgrade. And/Or ... FX cameras can use DX lenses.

Indeed Sony's growth has been slower than probable w/out their multiple mounts.
Click to expand...
Let's see, anyways Canon M line alone is as big as some camera brands and most of the user base was never waiting for FF M.

On DSLR side the common mount on crop and FF cameras was a must becouse of the history of EOS mount and as well the user base was much more diverse and the lenses were allready FF. However my bet the DSLR line will die in less than a decade.
 
Jonathan Brady said:
Jonsi said:
This discussion is long overdue here. I don't know why the MILC vs DSLR debate is so rare at DPR. Excellent question attached to an equally excellent poll, OP.

Congrats on blazing new trails.
Click to expand...
If only we could all somehow avoid threads which don't interest us, DPR would be a better place, right? I mean, there should be some sort of color coding, or perhaps an initialism, or something to tell us what the contents of a thread are about so that we don't have to waste our time clicking on it, much less reading it, and even worse, taking the time to reply to let the OP know that we have no interest in discussing what they wish to discuss. Oh, I know! Some sort of "bat signal" that gets blasted into the sky! No... That won't work... Hmmm, what about submitting to a battery of tests where they can figure out what we like and don't and every thread can have this emoji 💩 or this one 🌟?

There's a site feedback forum, perhaps you should go there and make a suggestion for such a feature...

Or, you could just use the thread titles as a cue. 🤔
Click to expand...
But I said congrats.
 
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