I think a Panasonic FF makes perfect sense... not the death of m43!

FF Mirrorless is the HOTTEST segment in the ILC market and Panasonic is well positioned to take on Sony.
FF market is the MINOR LEAGUE in camera business. It is the most hyped, but least sold.

The market share of the FF is about 10-15% between manufacturers compared to all other ILC they do. The clear #1 is the APS-C among Canon, Nikon and Sony.
You're confusing unit sale vs money from sale. Sony abandoned aps-c and moved ff because this is where money are. Aps-c lens offering from canon or nikon is very poor.
Canon and Nikon money is in the APS-C, that is their main profits, cut that off and they are in minor league.

The FF is not the money maker in profits, that is what the shareholders care, not about units but that company 10-15% of the profits comes from FF only, rest from the APS-C.
Even Nikon sells more D3x00 cameras than Canon, Nikon and Sony does sell FF together. And talking about the amounts that Canon sells APS-C cameras? Hah.... Welcome to major league!
Of unit sales.
In the camera business, it is done on cheap APS-C cameras, exactly like a D3400 or 1300D and such.

FF is just like selling a Audi A9, BMW 8th series, Volvo S90 and so on. You don't sell those in masses, you sell everything else in expense of those.
Lets check now sony profits shoot up after introducing good ff cameras and lenses.
Do not mistake FF to their Alpha line. A6000 was, and A6300 and A6500 are their money makers, not their A7 and A9 lines.
Have you ever thought why Canon, Nikon and Sony keeps their APS-C lines there if they want all just to jump to FF? They would kill the APS-C lines once as based your theory (instead their shareholders given papers) the APS-C is just money hole, money is done in FF and so on.

But they can't, because majority of the people go and buy D3500, 80D, EOS-M etc APS-C cameras and most are even cheap 300-500€ models from big stores electronics departments. When people are not happy for their cameras, they buy a new one. When camera gets damaged etc, they buy a new one.

FF is the luxury market, where very few will step in, and real money is done in the cheap APS-C.
 
FF Mirrorless is the HOTTEST segment in the ILC market and Panasonic is well positioned to take on Sony.
FF market is the MINOR LEAGUE in camera business. It is the most hyped, but least sold.

The market share of the FF is about 10-15% between manufacturers compared to all other ILC they do. The clear #1 is the APS-C among Canon, Nikon and Sony.

Even Nikon sells more D3x00 cameras than Canon, Nikon and Sony does sell FF together. And talking about the amounts that Canon sells APS-C cameras? Hah.... Welcome to major league!

In the camera business, it is done on cheap APS-C cameras, exactly like a D3400 or 1300D and such.

FF is just like selling a Audi A9, BMW 8th series, Volvo S90 and so on. You don't sell those in masses, you sell everything else in expense of those.

FF is what you pay more for its name than for what you get.
Market share and volume sales is one factor. Another very important factor is the actual gross profit of each market space. So if this 10% volume generates the 80% of their camera gross profit then you can understand where they need to focus. Another important thing is that the consumers identity is changing...
When the FF market provides for Canon and Nikon only their 10-15% of the profits, they do not push forward there but keep APS-C out.

The FF is the luxury brand/image key. For every FF user, they get 8-9 APS-C buyers. They buy low cost / high profit APS-C cameras and 1-2 lenses (typically kit + 1 extra like 18-200mm) and then they are happy.
Have you noticed that in every consumer goods category, companies are focusing in the upper market? There is a reason behind:

Middle class is shrinking globally and now we have more reach, more poor people and less middle class consumers.
Yet they sell more of the low-end categories. That is where the money is made.

You don't be happy to sell 1x 6000€ body, when you can sell 15x 600€ bodies. Why? Because you have 15x more customers in the future with those APS-C buyers than you have with that one who buys the expensive body and few expensive lenses.

That one expensive customer is important, because that one is bringing more customers in future that will buy those cheap APS-C again.

It is a fantasy that 80-90% of now the camera buyers are in the FF market and everyone is jumping there as "there is the money". No, the money is in the low end.







If Canon, Nikon and Sony would stop APS-C sales, they would lose their profits in camera market at that moment. Just flat out die right out.

People see the twisted image that FF is the future, that it is the profits and sales. And that APS-C is like "give something for the poor people". While it is other way around, business is done in APS-C, and FF is "give something for those who have more money to spend". Because that is where the development is happening, and that knowledge and experience is then transferred to mainstream products where you make the money.

There are many reasons how business runs, but you can't go just for the top for richest people and stay there for decades. You can't be selling a 2000-6000€ cameras only, without any lenses!

Olympus knows this, their camera division profits comes from a two cameras, their PEN line and E-M10. Yet they keep developing and pushing more higher end, what means that they expands their categories to wider range, not shift it. They are not abandoning the PEN line or E-M10, as that is where the money is done. They only reach out to other category to take a part from there too.
 
Excellent points Kent. The notion that Panasonic is all of sudden going to abandon m43 is an absurdity. m43 is a proven system and it's size, weight advantages will continue to make it an attractive format.
 
I look at it differently. Panasonic needed to do something to stay viable in the marketplace. An entry in the FF space lends market 'credibility' to the brand and has the potential to allow Panasonic to grow it's piece a shrinking camera market pie.

Nikon's FF mirror-less entry missed expectations of the pre-release hype. Canon was a bit smarter, even-though in typical Canon fashion they've continued to play their conservative card and gimped some features on their camera. I predict that their camera will do much better than Nikon's

If by chance, Panasonic does not gimp features and releases a FF version of their G9, they could very well command a premium price over the Sony A7III and smash it out of the park! Wouldn't that be something?

However, if they don't introduce phase detect AF with their first FF entry, that could very well be their achilles heal that prevents conquest sales.

We soon shall see...
 
I look at it differently. Panasonic needed to do something to stay viable in the marketplace. An entry in the FF space lends market 'credibility' to the brand and has the potential to allow Panasonic to grow it's piece a shrinking camera market pie.

Nikon's FF mirror-less entry missed expectations of the pre-release hype. Canon was a bit smarter, even-though in typical Canon fashion they've continued to play their conservative card and gimped some features on their camera. I predict that their camera will do much better than Nikon's
It's not even released yet so let's wait and see what you get from Canon...
If by chance, Panasonic does not gimp features and releases a FF version of their G9, they could very well command a premium price over the Sony A7III and smash it out of the park! Wouldn't that be something?
Using what lenses?
However, if they don't introduce phase detect AF with their first FF entry, that could very well be their achilles heal that prevents conquest sales.

We soon shall see...

--
Kevin Barrett
Lowell, MI USA
www.kbfoto.com
 
Panasonic didn't sink a bunch of R&D money to develop their recently released telephoto lenses only to abandon m43. Where are the holes in the m43 system today? There aren't too many. No real need to sink a ton of more R&D money into it.

Broadening Panasonic's market to encompass the FF user may very well have a pull-through effect that stimulates m43 sales to buyers who wouldn't have considered m43 in the first place.

To me, it makes sense to simplify the m43 line-up and consolidate some models. Do you really need both a GH5 and G9? There is no reason why the next GH can't also incorporate many of the G9 goodies. Does a G90 even make sense in a world where a GH6 maybe only nominally more money?

To me, I'd like to see more attention paid to the GX line and perhaps re-introduce another GM? - These sized camera are where m43 really shines.
 
I look at it differently. Panasonic needed to do something to stay viable in the marketplace. An entry in the FF space lends market 'credibility' to the brand and has the potential to allow Panasonic to grow it's piece a shrinking camera market pie.

Nikon's FF mirror-less entry missed expectations of the pre-release hype. Canon was a bit smarter, even-though in typical Canon fashion they've continued to play their conservative card and gimped some features on their camera. I predict that their camera will do much better than Nikon's
It's not even released yet so let's wait and see what you get from Canon...
If by chance, Panasonic does not gimp features and releases a FF version of their G9, they could very well command a premium price over the Sony A7III and smash it out of the park! Wouldn't that be something?
Using what lenses?
However, if they don't introduce phase detect AF with their first FF entry, that could very well be their achilles heal that prevents conquest sales.

We soon shall see...
 
If by chance, Panasonic does not gimp features and releases a FF version of their G9, they could very well command a premium price over the Sony A7III and smash it out of the park! Wouldn't that be something?
Using what lenses?
This!!! Does anyone around here besides a few people have any sense of reality??! Get off your fixation on bodies and think of SYSTEM INVESTMENT: Why would any sane buyer, besides the rabid fans on forums, buy a new $2k+ FF Panasonic that has no lenses?! Compared to Sony, with a full system, and even Nikon, who recognized the problem and made an adapter??

What possible reason would this thing be expected to fly off the shelves upon introduction? At most Panasonic would announce 3 lenses at time of unveiling, and it would take years just to BEGIN to fill out a reasonable lens lineup.

Makes more sense for Panasonic to introduce a FF competitor to the RX100, for all the market sense that this idea makes. They are WAY behind the full frame 8 ball and it's only getting worse every second that goes by, unless they'll be investing tens of millions of dollars on introducing full frame lenses in bulk.
 
Tens of millions of dollars is less than the office petty cash float for a company the size of Panasonic ...

Last time I looked (around the mid to late 1990s), Panasonic made over 32,000 products. If you own anything with any kind of electronic components, chances are that some of the parts will be made by Panasonic.
 
FF brings LARGER lenses...I'd hate to think how big the Olympus 12-100 f/4 would be, or even the Panasonic 35-100 f/2.8 in FF. I love the m43 size for travel and general use. I'm okay with FF Panny as long as they still stick with m43. Sort of like what Fuji is doing with their APS-C and MF living side by side :-)
 
Like you, I give a lot of credit to Panasonic for adding something really exciting to their product lineup. I think they can do something really special considering their video expertise, and their innovations like DFD and dual IS.

But I do have one worry that keeps nagging me. Is the potential market for FF MILC cameras large enough to sustain five players (Sony, Nikon, Canon, Leica, and now Panasonic?)

I remember reading somewhere that the market for crop sensored ILCs is around eight times larger than the market for full frame ILCs. And when Panasonic was competing directly in the crop sensored DSLR market against Canon and Nikon, it didn't go so well for them.

I'm pretty sure Panasonic can build a better camera. I just don't know if they can go against the two (or perhaps three, if you count Sony) 800 pound gorillas in marketing.
 
I re-read Panasonic's February 2018 press release announcing their Organic Photoconductive Film (OPF) tech this morning. It doesn't mention 4/3 sensors anywhere.

It's possible that the forthcoming FF from Panasonic will use their own OPF sensor. This will be a big deal for them as it will give them some things that other FF players don't currently have: 8K video, global shutter, electronic ND filter with real-time variability.

I had been hoping that this tech would appear in m43 first, but if it trickles down in a couple of years when some of the bugs have been worked out, I'm OK with that too.
 
FF Mirrorless is the HOTTEST segment in the ILC market and Panasonic is well positioned to take on Sony.
FF market is the MINOR LEAGUE in camera business. It is the most hyped, but least sold.

The market share of the FF is about 10-15% between manufacturers compared to all other ILC they do. The clear #1 is the APS-C among Canon, Nikon and Sony.
You're confusing unit sale vs money from sale. Sony abandoned aps-c and moved ff because this is where money are. Aps-c lens offering from canon or nikon is very poor.
Canon and Nikon money is in the APS-C, that is their main profits, cut that off and they are in minor league.

The FF is not the money maker in profits, that is what the shareholders care, not about units but that company 10-15% of the profits comes from FF only, rest from the APS-C.
I'm not sure where you are getting these numbers. I looked through the sources more thoroughly. From the other thread, the OP got it wrong (source was talking about units, not revenue).

https://www.dpreview.com/forums/thread/4315394

If digging through the source, it says 16-20% of units sold since 2013-2014 were FX. This matches with Hogan's blog talking about 16% FX for cumulative units 2012-2015.

https://www.pointsinfocus.com/blog/...e-camera-market-prompted-sonys-press-release/

http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/how-do-fx-and-dx-sales.html

Given FX cameras cost more than DX cameras on average (in fact the least expensive FX camera D610 is almost the price of the most expensive DX D500), it seems impossible that only 10-15% of the revenue comes from FX. For profits, what you say can only be true if they make less profit per unit on FX than DX, which is extremely unlikely.

It's impossible to figure from Nikon reports (they mix in lenses and fixed lens cameras), but from CIPA the average cost of a DSLR in 2012-2015 was 41,398 JPY (roughly $350-415 USD using 100-120 JPY exchange rate).

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/common/cr300.pdf

From camelcamelcamel.jp, launch price of the D610 was 182250 JPY and dropped to 140,000-150,000 JPY by 2015. Lowest price for D600 was 141,936 until Amazon dropped it in 2013. I'll use 140,000 JPY to be safe (as a sanity check this works out to $1167-1400 USD, which is low and thus conservative). Note this number is the least expensive FX body, so the average might actually be higher.

Using the 41,398 JPY as average for DX, 140,000 JPY as average for FX (note these numbers are skewed to favor DX) and 16% FX unit share, I get a revenue share of 61% for DX and 39% for FX for 2012-2015 period. Which is a fairly different picture than 10-15% for FX (and recent years may have changed skewing more in favor for FX; Hogan's numbers suggest FX is growing in share).

I can do an analysis for profits if you can find your source for the profit breakdown of crop vs FF cameras.
 
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In every business, Whenever new player enters new market, it's always enter as "niche player", targeting very specific segment with best of the best specific features.. Later on, if success, they will gradually expand into mass segment..

.

Think of business organization; there are teams to manage each business unit.. One unit is money-making well established business, m43.. Another unit is FF, managing new business with lots of uncertainty and late-entry disadvantages.. So, By killing their existing established business (m43) alltogether and put all resources into new uncertain business (FF) seems utterly non-senses.. IMHO..

.

So, until Panny shows BIG SUCCESS in their risky FF adventure, they will surely continue to develop and improve m43 lines AT THE SAME TIMES as their FF development.. Technology can easily transferable between FF and m43 and their pro camcorder business..

.

As consumer, I can only see positive side of this story.. Competition makes My future camera better, and cheaper..
 
JakeJY wrot
If digging through the source, it says 16-20% of units sold since 2013-2014 were FX. This matches with Hogan's blog talking about 16% FX for cumulative units 2012-2015.
https://www.pointsinfocus.com/blog/...e-camera-market-prompted-sonys-press-release/

http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/how-do-fx-and-dx-sales.html
Yes, but you fail to extrapolate total sales figures from historical data: overall camera sales are LOWER than the 2013-2014 time analysis. Meaning that, if Panasonic really does introduce a FF camera, it must segment out a market slice from a *smaller* overall market which only segments 20% maximium of THAT lower figure to DX sales. It is a SHRINKING, not growing, overall market, based upon all sales projections.

It's deck chairs on the Titanic.
 
JakeJY wrot

If digging through the source, it says 16-20% of units sold since 2013-2014 were FX. This matches with Hogan's blog talking about 16% FX for cumulative units 2012-2015.

https://www.pointsinfocus.com/blog/...e-camera-market-prompted-sonys-press-release/

http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/how-do-fx-and-dx-sales.html
Yes, but you fail to extrapolate total sales figures from historical data: overall camera sales are LOWER than the 2013-2014 time analysis. Meaning that, if Panasonic really does introduce a FF camera, it must segment out a market slice from a *smaller* overall market which only segments 20% maximium of THAT lower figure to DX sales. It is a SHRINKING, not growing, overall market, based upon all sales projections.

It's deck chairs on the Titanic.
Well that's a different argument my post doesn't address at all. The exercise about FX vs DX cameras is only to get an estimate of percent breakdown of FX vs DX in terms of units (and then eventually revenue and profits). There are no more recent numbers available as far as I could find, and that's likely why even that 2017 analysis by pointsinfocus used those older numbers.

And if you want to discuss your subject, the market is shrinking or stagnant and the strategy to address that has largely been to focus on higher margin products. It's the only way to get profits in such a market.
 
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Well that's a different argument my post doesn't address at all. The exercise about FX vs DX cameras is only to get an estimate of percent breakdown of FX vs DX in terms of units (and then eventually revenue and profits). There are no more recent numbers available as far as I could find, and that's likely why even that 2017 analysis by pointsinfocus used those older numbers.

And if you want to discuss your subject, the market is shrinking or stagnant and the strategy to address that has largely been to focus on higher margin products. It's the only way to get profits in such a market.
That can certainly be true but usually late comers to such a market that you describe have the most difficult time reaching that profitability point, the established brands have a tremendous headway to overcome. And Panasonic is certainly the *last* to come in, as even both Fuji AND Pentax went larger before them.
 
Tens of millions of dollars is less than the office petty cash float for a company the size of Panasonic ...

Last time I looked (around the mid to late 1990s), Panasonic made over 32,000 products. If you own anything with any kind of electronic components, chances are that some of the parts will be made by Panasonic.
If this were true, that tens (upon tens) of millions of dollars is nothing for a company like Panasonic to invest into lenses, what took so long for them to fill out the m43 lens line, with items that seemed to be what the public demanded???
 
Tens of millions of dollars is less than the office petty cash float for a company the size of Panasonic ...

Last time I looked (around the mid to late 1990s), Panasonic made over 32,000 products. If you own anything with any kind of electronic components, chances are that some of the parts will be made by Panasonic.
If this were true, that tens (upon tens) of millions of dollars is nothing for a company like Panasonic
Trust me, it is true ...
to invest into lenses, what took so long for them to fill out the m43 lens line, with items that seemed to be what the public demanded???
Because nothing happens by magic, perhaps?
 
Well that's a different argument my post doesn't address at all. The exercise about FX vs DX cameras is only to get an estimate of percent breakdown of FX vs DX in terms of units (and then eventually revenue and profits). There are no more recent numbers available as far as I could find, and that's likely why even that 2017 analysis by pointsinfocus used those older numbers.

And if you want to discuss your subject, the market is shrinking or stagnant and the strategy to address that has largely been to focus on higher margin products. It's the only way to get profits in such a market.
That can certainly be true but usually late comers to such a market that you describe have the most difficult time reaching that profitability point, the established brands have a tremendous headway to overcome. And Panasonic is certainly the *last* to come in, as even both Fuji AND Pentax went larger before them.
To be clear, I'm not supportive of or saying Panasonic will have an easy time developing their FF system. In fact, I argued elsewhere they will have a tougher time than the established players.

But all I'm saying is the industry trends point to higher margin products, which explains some of Panasonic's recent camera (like G9) and lens (200mm, 50-200mm) releases. Some others have argued these types of products are the wrong move for M43 and that they should keep M43 as the low margin lineup, but I don't agree with that.
 
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