Jonathan Brady
Veteran Member
Long post ahead. Fair warning. Don't complain about the length of it if you continue reading...
Personally, I'd like to see Canon hit a home run with their upcoming FF MILC. However, I'm a bit skeptical. Here are some thoughts running through my head...
♫Come together, right now, over me♫
Can we all agree that competition is good? Can we all agree that mirrorless is, more than likely, here to stay, and quite possibly, the future of ILC photography? Can we all agree that Canon leads the market in market share and dollars? Can we all agree that they'd probably like to maintain that position? Can we all agree that this isn't guaranteed?
Great!
Ladies and gentlemen, we have just lost cabin pressure
Can we all agree that Canon has a contentious reputation, especially over the last 10 years?
On the one hand, they are viewed as being the brand for professionals thanks to durable, reliable products, industry-best professional services, and the depth and breadth of their ecosystem to satisfy almost any photographic need.
On the other hand, they are seen as conservative to a fault, often lacking when it comes to innovation, and many would agree that Canon sees their consumer base as gullible (especially when it comes to "refreshing" something old and calling it new) and largely "captive".
I don't think Canon supporters or detractors would deny that Canon relies on their "brand" as well as apathy and emotional attachment quite heavily and that it nets them a LOT of sales.
♫Hit me with your best shot♫ No, seriously... Canon, bring your "A game"
I believe that traditional marketing strategies for Canon will not fare as well as they have in the past when it comes to FF mirrorless. Canon is used to depending on jaw-dropping, awe-inspiring brand loyalty, brand recognition and marketing, and lens expertise to command their body prices.
Technologically speaking, when it comes to this market segment (FF Mirrorless), Canon is currently absent in what will likely end up being a 3-brand field. Not only are they absent, they're 5 years behind (as of October 2018). 5 years wasn't much when AF first appeared as the pace of tech advancement was, by today's standards, a snap of the fingers.
5 years in today's tech is 3 generations of camera bodies (for Sony, anyway). In 5 years Sony went from niche product (A7/A7R) for niche photographers to the A9/A7III/A7RIII which are winning awards left and right and can meet the needs of practically any photographer.
Meanwhile, in that same 5-year span, Canon managed to go from the 6D to the 6D Mark II. Sure, the bar started higher with the 6D than the A7, but the rate of advancement for Sony was obscene and they blew past the 6D Mark II before it was even released. I'm fairly certain the folks at Canon, Inc heard an unexplainable sonic boom back in 2015. That was Sony.
You take the blue pill—the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill—you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.
As we saw with the 6D Mark II being dropped from a launch price of $2000 to an effective price of $1200 within a few months of launch, Canon's strategy of relying on brand loyalty and brand recognition was beginning to crumble. Consumers were suddenly better educated when it came to options than ever before, and they grew tired of being drip-fed advancements because they heard that sonic boom, too. Unlike Canon, they saw where it came from.
Couple that discontent with the explosion in online reviews from exponentially more sources and you have a "boiling pot". When you toss in the widespread preference for online shopping (which necessarily means a decline in face-to-face interactions at the local camera store and being exposed to their *theoretically informed* purchasing advice) and you have the explanation for why Canon's history of incremental upgrades and riding the waves of past success is now a recipe for disaster.
We should also keep in mind that very few shoppers new to cameras will be looking at FF mirrorless. Those looking to purchase FF mirrorless are a new breed. If they go somewhere like Best Buy to get a feel for a camera, more than likely they will know more about the various systems than the employees working there. And that's where most go to see them in person because, again, camera stores are largely a thing of the past.
When you try and convince your wife that you were awake the whole time and heard every word...
As of this week, we're seeing the reception Nikon is getting with the Z mount and what being absent for 5 years will get you. Granted, I believe Nikon shot themselves in the foot a bit as they told everyone that they were going to reinvent mirrorless which led to lofty expectations (because most everyone has seen what the A7III is capable of - as evidenced by Sony leading the FF market in sales for 6 months straight) and that led to rampant disappointment from consumers and many hands-on testers.
The consensus seems to be that the Z6/7 are somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd gen Sony bodies in most performance-related ways, depending on what features are important to the person doing the analysis. The only exception I remember seeing is that DPR said that this is Nikon's most well-rounded camera, ever. Had Nikon brought these cameras to market 18 months ago before the A9 debuted, I believe these cameras would have been universally embraced as fantastic, especially if there were dual card slots.
Is it better to learn from our own mistakes or the mistakes of others? Ideally, both!
So, what should Canon do? Here's my take.
That's the FF mirrorless version of the 5D line that I envision. I'd also expect it to be priced at a premium above the current 5D line. I think they'd be smart to have a regular model (akin to the 5D Mark IV) for $4000 with 39mp so they can make 8K video a purchasable FW upgrade. They could also offer an upgrade to some insane burst rate (buffer may suffer though) for an additional $1000-2000 or so. Or, rather than upgrade for speed, just release a different body akin to the 1 series which could maintain the buffer performance and tack on even more money, just for fun.
Consider this total package for a minute. Seriously. A $4000 camera body with Eye-Controlled AF, Eye AF, silent electronic shutter, DPAF and versatile 4K (and an 8K option). All of that stands on own as INCREDIBLE but then you back it up with industry-leading pro support and a great flash system... Wedding photographers, line up! Event photographers, you too! Action shooters, pony up an extra $1-2K and you can jump in line behind the others! No fighting!
The Lost Boys
Who hasn't been taken care of yet? Enthusiasts with a lower budget and the high-res folks (landscape/studio).
Complement the prior camera with one that competes with the A7III. Perhaps this model doesn't have Eye-Controlled Focus and it has DPAF performance better than the 5D Mark IV (to the extent that a FW update might provide). I might even suggest a single card slot but after the thrashing Nikon is enduring, maybe not. A lower-res, slower-refresh EVF is a no-brainer as well. Regular shutter, too. Normal res with "consumer" build quality and an insanely high res model with a more durable "weather sealed" build quality would round out the camera body offerings.
Seeing the world through a different lens
What about lenses for this new mount? Here are my suggestions for launch day:
Geez man, wrap it up
If you're Canon, in my opinion, that is how you GUARANTEE that your company will be number one for a very, very long time to come. Not only would you have a best-in-class offering straight out of the gate, you have multiple options, value-oriented FW upgrades, and you've set the bar, not limboing under it with your back dragging in the sand (ahem, 6D Mark II).
Disclaimer
Very little of the above is a statement of fact. Almost all of it is my opinion. Feel free to rip it apart. But let's keep it civil.
Personally, I'd like to see Canon hit a home run with their upcoming FF MILC. However, I'm a bit skeptical. Here are some thoughts running through my head...
♫Come together, right now, over me♫
Can we all agree that competition is good? Can we all agree that mirrorless is, more than likely, here to stay, and quite possibly, the future of ILC photography? Can we all agree that Canon leads the market in market share and dollars? Can we all agree that they'd probably like to maintain that position? Can we all agree that this isn't guaranteed?
Great!
Ladies and gentlemen, we have just lost cabin pressure
Can we all agree that Canon has a contentious reputation, especially over the last 10 years?
On the one hand, they are viewed as being the brand for professionals thanks to durable, reliable products, industry-best professional services, and the depth and breadth of their ecosystem to satisfy almost any photographic need.
On the other hand, they are seen as conservative to a fault, often lacking when it comes to innovation, and many would agree that Canon sees their consumer base as gullible (especially when it comes to "refreshing" something old and calling it new) and largely "captive".
I don't think Canon supporters or detractors would deny that Canon relies on their "brand" as well as apathy and emotional attachment quite heavily and that it nets them a LOT of sales.
♫Hit me with your best shot♫ No, seriously... Canon, bring your "A game"
I believe that traditional marketing strategies for Canon will not fare as well as they have in the past when it comes to FF mirrorless. Canon is used to depending on jaw-dropping, awe-inspiring brand loyalty, brand recognition and marketing, and lens expertise to command their body prices.
Technologically speaking, when it comes to this market segment (FF Mirrorless), Canon is currently absent in what will likely end up being a 3-brand field. Not only are they absent, they're 5 years behind (as of October 2018). 5 years wasn't much when AF first appeared as the pace of tech advancement was, by today's standards, a snap of the fingers.
5 years in today's tech is 3 generations of camera bodies (for Sony, anyway). In 5 years Sony went from niche product (A7/A7R) for niche photographers to the A9/A7III/A7RIII which are winning awards left and right and can meet the needs of practically any photographer.
Meanwhile, in that same 5-year span, Canon managed to go from the 6D to the 6D Mark II. Sure, the bar started higher with the 6D than the A7, but the rate of advancement for Sony was obscene and they blew past the 6D Mark II before it was even released. I'm fairly certain the folks at Canon, Inc heard an unexplainable sonic boom back in 2015. That was Sony.
You take the blue pill—the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill—you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.
As we saw with the 6D Mark II being dropped from a launch price of $2000 to an effective price of $1200 within a few months of launch, Canon's strategy of relying on brand loyalty and brand recognition was beginning to crumble. Consumers were suddenly better educated when it came to options than ever before, and they grew tired of being drip-fed advancements because they heard that sonic boom, too. Unlike Canon, they saw where it came from.
Couple that discontent with the explosion in online reviews from exponentially more sources and you have a "boiling pot". When you toss in the widespread preference for online shopping (which necessarily means a decline in face-to-face interactions at the local camera store and being exposed to their *theoretically informed* purchasing advice) and you have the explanation for why Canon's history of incremental upgrades and riding the waves of past success is now a recipe for disaster.
We should also keep in mind that very few shoppers new to cameras will be looking at FF mirrorless. Those looking to purchase FF mirrorless are a new breed. If they go somewhere like Best Buy to get a feel for a camera, more than likely they will know more about the various systems than the employees working there. And that's where most go to see them in person because, again, camera stores are largely a thing of the past.
When you try and convince your wife that you were awake the whole time and heard every word...
As of this week, we're seeing the reception Nikon is getting with the Z mount and what being absent for 5 years will get you. Granted, I believe Nikon shot themselves in the foot a bit as they told everyone that they were going to reinvent mirrorless which led to lofty expectations (because most everyone has seen what the A7III is capable of - as evidenced by Sony leading the FF market in sales for 6 months straight) and that led to rampant disappointment from consumers and many hands-on testers.
The consensus seems to be that the Z6/7 are somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd gen Sony bodies in most performance-related ways, depending on what features are important to the person doing the analysis. The only exception I remember seeing is that DPR said that this is Nikon's most well-rounded camera, ever. Had Nikon brought these cameras to market 18 months ago before the A9 debuted, I believe these cameras would have been universally embraced as fantastic, especially if there were dual card slots.
Is it better to learn from our own mistakes or the mistakes of others? Ideally, both!
So, what should Canon do? Here's my take.
- NOT count on brand loyalty and brand recognition for starters. They need to IMPRESS people. Canon's FF mirrorless needs to be seen as legitimate all on its own. If we put tape over the logos and forgot about the EF mount, could Canon's FF MILC system compete?
- Bring back Eye-Controlled Focus and reintroduce it in FF MILC.
- Throw a TON more processing power and better algorithms behind their Eye AF that they introduced in the M50 because that implementation is terrible.
- DPAF needs a shot of N2O and the additional processing power mentioned above should help it keep up with the best mirrorless currently has to offer. If you believe it currently does (for stills), I'll happily sell you my M5.
- Introduce an anti-distortion, black-out free silent electronic shutter like in the A9.
- To take the lead in the field, it would be a global shutter so that flash could be used without resorting to the mechanical shutter (which is the only practical difference between a global shutter and the electronic shutter that the A9 has).
- Quit being stingy (and downright ridiculous) and implement 4K video with multiple formats, at least one of which needs to be full-sensor 30p
- Don't forget dual card slots
- Don't screw up the basics by trying to save money or keep the DSLR line viable. For instance, stabilize the dang sensor, the EVF needs to be great, maintain the excellent touch screen, etc. Take the hit up front to launch the system and play the long game when it comes to profits and volume.
That's the FF mirrorless version of the 5D line that I envision. I'd also expect it to be priced at a premium above the current 5D line. I think they'd be smart to have a regular model (akin to the 5D Mark IV) for $4000 with 39mp so they can make 8K video a purchasable FW upgrade. They could also offer an upgrade to some insane burst rate (buffer may suffer though) for an additional $1000-2000 or so. Or, rather than upgrade for speed, just release a different body akin to the 1 series which could maintain the buffer performance and tack on even more money, just for fun.
Consider this total package for a minute. Seriously. A $4000 camera body with Eye-Controlled AF, Eye AF, silent electronic shutter, DPAF and versatile 4K (and an 8K option). All of that stands on own as INCREDIBLE but then you back it up with industry-leading pro support and a great flash system... Wedding photographers, line up! Event photographers, you too! Action shooters, pony up an extra $1-2K and you can jump in line behind the others! No fighting!
The Lost Boys
Who hasn't been taken care of yet? Enthusiasts with a lower budget and the high-res folks (landscape/studio).
Complement the prior camera with one that competes with the A7III. Perhaps this model doesn't have Eye-Controlled Focus and it has DPAF performance better than the 5D Mark IV (to the extent that a FW update might provide). I might even suggest a single card slot but after the thrashing Nikon is enduring, maybe not. A lower-res, slower-refresh EVF is a no-brainer as well. Regular shutter, too. Normal res with "consumer" build quality and an insanely high res model with a more durable "weather sealed" build quality would round out the camera body offerings.
Seeing the world through a different lens
What about lenses for this new mount? Here are my suggestions for launch day:
- 24-70/2.8 (L)
- 70-200/2.8 (L)
- 24-105/4
- Fast portrait prime (L)
- Moderate-speed portrait prime
- 2-3 wide/standard primes (L or maybe not) where the EF equivalent is noticeably deficient compared to modern glass (to me, the 35L II is the standard for modern, glass)
- No compromise adapter for EF glass (like they already have). I know I mentioned above the system needs to stand on its own, but that doesn't mean they should ignore potential users.
Geez man, wrap it up
If you're Canon, in my opinion, that is how you GUARANTEE that your company will be number one for a very, very long time to come. Not only would you have a best-in-class offering straight out of the gate, you have multiple options, value-oriented FW upgrades, and you've set the bar, not limboing under it with your back dragging in the sand (ahem, 6D Mark II).
Disclaimer
Very little of the above is a statement of fact. Almost all of it is my opinion. Feel free to rip it apart. But let's keep it civil.
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