I really do not see the need to change the mount. Today the D850 provides some stunning results with an existing lens line up, even with wide angles, right in to the corners. So, what is to be gained? The Sony experience proves that the size and weight differential is not a real benefit. Folks want a substantial body to handle the lenses that FF requires. Nikon would be better off leaving the mount and flange distance as they are. It can then continue to improve its existing lens line up and provide both DsLRs and Mirrorless cameras. The working pro or hobbyist will appreciate the ability to easily switch tools, depending on the need and benefits of each system.
+1. Took the words right out of my mouth. I couldn't agree more.
But . . .
I bet Nikon will regard the "great mirrorless quake of aught-18" as an opportunity for both profiteering and modernizing their lens mount.
Profiteering? You bet. Introducing a new mount is a way to get a certain segment to just re-buy all of their Nikon gear. Why introduce a new body, alone, when you can use the hoopla to pull new lenses out of everyone's wallet, too? You know people out there who'll love it. They'll be here, arguing red-faced about what a great privilege it is and how "worth it" the experience has been to buy their Nikon system all over again.
Modernizing? Nikon famously skipped biting this bullet the way Canon did when autofocus became a "thing" in the late 80s, and it has been left ever since with a narrow-throated, mechanically-belabored hodge-podge of added standards and incompatibilities. I have a strong hunch Z-mount will clean out all the cruft and be even more future-oriented than Sony's FE mount, which is actually a little small for its evolution into fast-aperture, full-frame professional gear. And the price we'll pay: adapted F-mount lens performance will be lackluster. Slow / limited AF on the latest F-mount lenses, no AF compatibility at all with screwdriver AF-D. See point one, above, regarding Profiteering.
Yes, I am being cynical. And that perspective allows me to see "mirrorless" as a "movement" that's louder than it is numerous: however noisily some people bark and howl on the internet, sales remain flat overall. I think bean counters at both Canon and Nikon see it that way too--but it doesn't mean they won't leverage the barkers' and howlers' noise to try and extract some money from the rest of us. Every time some plinker here foams at the mouth that "mirrorless is the future!" they are offering Nikon and Canon free advertising cover to introduce new products that cost much more, but don't much push the performance bar. "The future!"
Don't believe me? Well, consider that DPReview had to write a whole editorial about whether they liked the new, amazing, crowning Sony A7.3 better than the 4.5-year-old Nikon D750,
and in the end the author couldn't conclude upon a definitive answer. Is the Sony A7.3 the "new" D750? The best Dan Bracaglia can say is, "maybe." And for all that hand-wringing, did the A7.3 actually replace the D750 as DPReview's top recommended $2000 camera?
Nope. Need another example? I would refer you to
DPReview's recent look at Canon's M50. "Definitely" a "Maybe?" if ever I saw one.
Brace yourself, friends. Because that's what we're going to get from both new Canon and Nikon mirrorless options. Will they push the bar? On your wallet,
definitively yes. On performance? I can already read the DPReview editorial opinion article: "Maybe?"