How long till Canon leapfrogs Nikon again?

SmilerGrogan · Mar 7, 2018

Has anyone figured out the scheduling of when Canon and Nikon trade dominance in the higher-end camera market?

To me it's an obvious example of an informal keiretsu, because over and over Canon comes out with a camera that blows away Nikon (like the 5DII for instance) and then after a year or two Nikon responds with a camera that torpedoes Canon (like the D3s or the D850).

Right now it's Canon's turn to release a camera that will leapfrog over the D850/D5; what I can't figure out is when to expect it. Will we see it in the next year? Or is 2019 more likely?

caspianm · Mar 12, 2018

This year Canon was pushing a lot of reburbs at basement price rate. I was shocked to see that! these are return entry level that apparently no one wants unless real cheap. Marketshare is the total sale and not a measure of profit.

it is true that mirrorless is new market but it is not an addition but rather a divided split of what was there before. One sale of mirrorless is always a lost sale of DSLR.

robblackett · Mar 12, 2018

caspianm said:
This year Canon was pushing a lot of reburbs at basement price rate. I was shocked to see that! these are return entry level that apparently no one wants unless real cheap. Marketshare is the total sale and not a measure of profit.

Sorry to hear you were shocked but the refurb market really isn't very big and not enough to have much impact on market share.

And I think most people know market share is not the same as profit.

caspianm said:
it is true that mirrorless is new market but it is not an addition but rather a divided split of what was there before. One sale of mirrorless is always a lost sale of DSLR.

J A C S · Mar 12, 2018

caspianm said:
This year Canon was pushing a lot of reburbs at basement price rate. I was shocked to see that! these are return entry level that apparently no one wants unless real cheap.

Well, I bought one of those refurbished 5D4 that nobody wants.

caspianm said:
Marketshare is the total sale and not a measure of profit.

In a long run, it is a measure of a healthy profit unless you have an even larger corporation or a government subsidizing that particular product line.

caspianm said:
it is true that mirrorless is new market but it is not an addition but rather a divided split of what was there before. One sale of mirrorless is always a lost sale of DSLR.

Not in my case. I bought a ML for its size and I still upgraded my dSLR.

caspianm · Mar 12, 2018

robblackett said:
caspianm said:

This year Canon was pushing a lot of reburbs at basement price rate. I was shocked to see that! these are return entry level that apparently no one wants unless real cheap. Marketshare is the total sale and not a measure of profit.

Click to expand...

Sorry to hear you were shocked but the refurb market really isn't very big and not enough to have much impact on market share.

And I think most people know market share is not the same as profit.

Member said:

it is true that mirrorless is new market but it is not an addition but rather a divided split of what was there before. One sale of mirrorless is always a lost sale of DSLR.

Click to expand...

Canon refurbished market is actually not that small. But my point was the price reduction level that was real low compared to previous holiday season pricing. It took Canon a long time to go out of stock this year indication of large stock and or slow sale inspite of bargain pricing.

Most people either don't know or care what market share definition is in daily life. But I was making a point that you missed or neglected

robblackett · Mar 12, 2018

caspianm said:
robblackett said:

caspianm said:

This year Canon was pushing a lot of reburbs at basement price rate. I was shocked to see that! these are return entry level that apparently no one wants unless real cheap. Marketshare is the total sale and not a measure of profit.

Click to expand...

Sorry to hear you were shocked but the refurb market really isn't very big and not enough to have much impact on market share.

And I think most people know market share is not the same as profit.

caspianm said:

it is true that mirrorless is new market but it is not an addition but rather a divided split of what was there before. One sale of mirrorless is always a lost sale of DSLR.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Canon refurbished market is actually not that small.

On a global scale it's tiny.

caspianm said:
But my point was the price reduction level that was real low compared to previous holiday season pricing. It took Canon a long time to go out of stock this year indication of large stock and or slow sale inspite of bargain pricing.

Most people either don't know or care what market share definition is in daily life. But I was making a point that you missed or neglected

You were making a point?

aftab · Mar 12, 2018

caspianm said:
This year Canon was pushing a lot of reburbs at basement price rate. I was shocked to see that! these are return entry level that apparently no one wants unless real cheap. Marketshare is the total sale and not a measure of profit.

Canon always made profit with their camera division, but in recent years profit level declined with declining camera sales. In 2017 Canon's profit level for camera division increased compared to 2016 and they expect to do the same in 2018. So, there is a method in madness which is difficult for an outsider to understand.

caspianm said:
it is true that mirrorless is new market but it is not an addition but rather a divided split of what was there before. One sale of mirrorless is always a lost sale of DSLR.

TommyLa · Mar 12, 2018

"Has anyone figured out the scheduling of when Canon and Nikon trade dominance in the higher-end camera market?"

Hopefully in two years, when I replace my 1D Mark 4. (Let's hope)

Rexgig0 · Mar 12, 2018

caspianm said:
it is true that mirrorless is new market but it is not an addition but rather a divided split of what was there before. One sale of mirrorless is always a lost sale of DSLR.

No, when I ordered an unofficially-imported EOS M3, before Canon USA began distribution, it was an additional camera, not bought in place of a DSLR. Hurricane Harvey drowned this camera, and I have yet to decide whether to replace it with anything.

When I bought a Nikon A, which is not actually an ILC, it was not purchased in place of a DSLR, either. (The Nikon A was/is a compact camera, with an APS-C sensor, no AA filter, an adult-sized flash shoe, an excellent wide-normal fixed-focal-length lens, and a pro-like metal body, made in Japan, so was certainly mis-marketed when labeled “Coolpix.”)

For that matter, the mirror-deprived ILC is not really a new market. There have been high-end 35mm interchangeable-lens cameras for decades, preceding SLRs, and continuing to be made alongside SLRs. In those pre-internet days, I am sure that verbal and hand-written debates occurred, regarding the new SLRs, versus the established cameras without mirrors.

Rexgig0 · Mar 12, 2018

ASR45 said:
Good question, I left canon awhile back from the 6D & 5D3, loved the cameras, but wanted something newer so gave Nikon a go, had the D750 and D500 I must say the latter blew me away, it was better for me than the canons offering at the time. Don't get me wrong I love canon but at the movement Nikon with there D500, D5, and now D850 leaves Canons behind. I would like to see canon up there game, but happy to go the Nikon route in the future if nothing transpires.

Arthur Stanley Jefferson · Mar 13, 2018

tends to be 4yr cycles for 5D series, mk 4 was 2016.

1 series seem to be released prior to most Olympic Games, again 2020

Rexgig0 · Mar 13, 2018

BigBen08 said:
The bigger question is how long before Canon leapfrogs Sony.

Why would Canon want to leap backward? I do not think Sony has yet to achieve Canon-like levels of environmental/weather-sealing, and the ability to detect, and synchronize exposures, with flickering ambient light, for consistent exposures and WB. What about Sony professional service/support? Canon, Nikon, Sony, Fuji, and plenty of other cameras can make the images I want, and until my recent retirement, could make the evidentiary images my duty required.

When I was shooting images for official purposes, Canon had the edge, due to weather-sealing, including a high-quality macro lens with I.S. and weather-sealing, plus a superior flash system, including a macro Ring Lite. Let’s remember that weather-sealing is not just about the weather, but other things that could enter the system, and contaminate or damage the interior, and it is convenient to be able to use water to clean contaminants from the exterior of the equipment.

Now that I am retired, and birds/wildlife/action have become more important, Nikon has the edge, due to the newest AF technology. I did not “switch” from Canon, but added new D500 and then D5 cameras. Nikon had already been my “secondary” system, for several years, anyway. (My wife has been a serious Nikon DSLR shooter longer than I have been a serious photographer; we do not normally share camera bodies, but do share lenses and flash.)

To get my attention, Sony is going to have to improve weather-sealing, further improve the selection of lenses, and start making adult-sized camera bodies, or at least position the controls so that adult-sized fingers, wearing gloves, can work the controls quickly and effectively.

Yes, Sony sensors can make wonderful images, but there is so much more to photography than than the sensor.

I do not hate Sony, though I remember Sony’s sudden exit from the notebook computer market, so wonder if Sony might suddenly lose interest in cameras, too. I really liked my amazingly compact, yet capable, Sony notebook computer, and had wanted to upgrade within the Sony system. Had Sony not exited the computer market, I might well have chosen Sony to be my ILC system, because Sony was “my” brand. I had bought a Sony DSC-H20 camera, to match my Sony notebook computer. Yes, I was a Sony customer, and felt abandoned.

--
I wore a police badge and pistol, and made evidentiary images at night, incorporating elements of portrait, macro, still life, landscape, architecture, and PJ. (Retired January 2018.) I enjoy using both Canons and Nikons.

Potemkin_Photo · Mar 13, 2018

Sadly I don't see Canon doing any leapfrogging. They've perfected a system of releasing very minor iterations as "upgrades" spread thinly over the years to maximize profit. They make good lenses, hook you like a trout, and then slowly reel in that money.

The original 5D was a watershed event. Then 5D II brought video, and that revolutionized things again. But after that?

Nikon leaped ahead with their D800 series and Canon never quite answered back.

Then SONY came in like a bare-knuckle street fighter and landed 100 jabs and hooks against a tired pot-bellied boxer. The pot-bellied boxer has belts and belts from past tournaments hanging in his closet, and thought that the memory of these would make him invincible. He was saving up his last haymaker to knock out the scrappy youngster, but waited too long and is instead withering under each successive blow even if they are light ones.

The pot-bellied boxer has retired, is no longer spry, but makes money churning out autographs in a tired old hand that he sells to his loyal fans. He tells everyone he is the best. And so far, he's making the money and everyone believes him. He tells the media that he's got that one last super punch that'll flatten everyone. But one day... all those jabs and hooks will bring him down to the mat and he won't get back up.

Then the bare-knuckle street fighter comes in and takes over. All the belts are hawked to pawn shops and street merchants. People soon forget his name, like they forgot Kodak.

MarshallG · Mar 14, 2018

Potemkin_Photo said:
Sadly I don't see Canon doing any leapfrogging. They've perfected a system of releasing very minor iterations as "upgrades" spread thinly over the years to maximize profit. They make good lenses, hook you like a trout, and then slowly reel in that money.

The original 5D was a watershed event. Then 5D II brought video, and that revolutionized things again. But after that?

Nikon leaped ahead with their D800 series and Canon never quite answered back.

Then SONY came in like a bare-knuckle street fighter and landed 100 jabs and hooks against a tired pot-bellied boxer. The pot-bellied boxer has belts and belts from past tournaments hanging in his closet, and thought that the memory of these would make him invincible. He was saving up his last haymaker to knock out the scrappy youngster, but waited too long and is instead withering under each successive blow even if they are light ones.

The pot-bellied boxer has retired, is no longer spry, but makes money churning out autographs in a tired old hand that he sells to his loyal fans. He tells everyone he is the best. And so far, he's making the money and everyone believes him. He tells the media that he's got that one last super punch that'll flatten everyone. But one day... all those jabs and hooks will bring him down to the mat and he won't get back up.

Then the bare-knuckle street fighter comes in and takes over. All the belts are hawked to pawn shops and street merchants. People soon forget his name, like they forgot Kodak.

Do you ever take photographs, or are you too busy writing about your Sony fan-love?

ASR45 · Mar 14, 2018

Rexgig0 said:
ASR45 said:

Good question, I left canon awhile back from the 6D & 5D3, loved the cameras, but wanted something newer so gave Nikon a go, had the D750 and D500 I must say the latter blew me away, it was better for me than the canons offering at the time. Don't get me wrong I love canon but at the movement Nikon with there D500, D5, and now D850 leaves Canons behind. I would like to see canon up there game, but happy to go the Nikon route in the future if nothing transpires.

Click to expand...

Rexgig0 · Mar 14, 2018

Potemkin_Photo said:
Sadly I don't see Canon doing any leapfrogging. They've perfected a system of releasing very minor iterations as "upgrades" spread thinly over the years to maximize profit. They make good lenses, hook you like a trout, and then slowly reel in that money.

The original 5D was a watershed event. Then 5D II brought video, and that revolutionized things again. But after that?

Nikon leaped ahead with their D800 series and Canon never quite answered back.

Then SONY came in like a bare-knuckle street fighter and landed 100 jabs and hooks against a tired pot-bellied boxer. The pot-bellied boxer has belts and belts from past tournaments hanging in his closet, and thought that the memory of these would make him invincible. He was saving up his last haymaker to knock out the scrappy youngster, but waited too long and is instead withering under each successive blow even if they are light ones.

The pot-bellied boxer has retired, is no longer spry, but makes money churning out autographs in a tired old hand that he sells to his loyal fans. He tells everyone he is the best. And so far, he's making the money and everyone believes him. He tells the media that he's got that one last super punch that'll flatten everyone. But one day... all those jabs and hooks will bring him down to the mat and he won't get back up.

Then the bare-knuckle street fighter comes in and takes over. All the belts are hawked to pawn shops and street merchants. People soon forget his name, like they forgot Kodak.

What does Sony have for me, when I need top-tier macro equipment, or top-tier hot-shoe-mount flash equipment, or want to capture images of a very-fast-flying Cooper’s Hawk hunting the local birds? Does Sony have the low-light AF capability to photograph the local owls and Fulvous Tree Ducks, which are active after the sun is below the horizon? Canon and Nikon can answer these questions.

Street fighting? If a camera is a street-fighter, well, that would be the D5 and/or 1D X II. ;-) In this class of camera, I actually prefer Nikon bodies, as will be explained, below.

Until I retired in January, I used flash regularly, while on duty, at night, for some very important images. Canon Speedlites moved ahead of Nikon Speedlights with the 580EX II, and then the further-refined 600EX-RT. (I own an SB-910, for reference.) Post-2012 Canon cameras can control 580EX II and newer Speedlites, using the camera menu, while looking at the camera’s LCD. Light rain does not bother the top-tier Speedlites, from the 580EX II, onward. The days of Nikon having the better flash system are no more. My latest flash purchase, to use on my Nikon cameras, was a Metz 64 AF-1.

Did Nikon really “leap ahead” with the D800? I am not so sure. The D800-series were a leap, but perhaps not directly ahead, as they had some growing pains, and I believe Nikon did not really get it right until the D850. I did pay close attention to the D800, D800e, and D810. The first one I considered worthy of buying was the D850, and I did just buy a D850 for my wife. (She is a serious photographer, the mentor who guided my start in SLR photography.) I opted to buy a D5, for my shooting, prioritizing low-light performance and a faster frame rate.

Yes, my wife’s D850 can do some amazing things that my 5Ds R cannot do, but that is to be expected, as the D850 is two years newer. A 5D IV would be a more-recent, and therefore somewhat more-relevant, to use as a point of reference, but I do not yet own one.

Of course, there is the Canon lens selection, L and non-L. As a dual-system Canon/Nikon shooter, I see how Nikon is well behind Canon in lens selection, having nothing to “answer” the EF 100-400L II IS, EF 35L II, EF 16-35/2.8L III, EF 11-24L, EF 24IS, EF 28IS, EF 35IS, and EF 40 STM, to name a few that come quickly to mind. (No, the Nikkor 200-500/5.6, with its slow AF and lack of weather-sealing, is not a match for the EF 100-400L II IS, and my Nikkor 35/1.4G is no match for my EF 35/1.4L II; they are different 35mm lenses, with different priorities.)

Rexgig0 · Apr 4, 2018

Well, I did not wait for a Canon “leapfrog,” and backed my words with action, buying a 5D IV yesterday. Initial impressions of the AF are quite good, based upon following a swallow-like bird, in flight, before I had a chance to program the best settings. Everything was predictable and familiar, because I have had a 5Ds R since January 2016.

My best cameras for bird photography, at the moment, may be D5 and D500 Nikons, but my best birding lens, at the moment, is a Canon EF 100-400L II IS, and with the 5D IV, seems well-matched.

Digitalshooter2 · Apr 4, 2018

SmilerGrogan said:
Has anyone figured out the scheduling of when Canon and Nikon trade dominance in the higher-end camera market?

To me it's an obvious example of an informal keiretsu, because over and over Canon comes out with a camera that blows away Nikon (like the 5DII for instance) and then after a year or two Nikon responds with a camera that torpedoes Canon (like the D3s or the D850).

Right now it's Canon's turn to release a camera that will leapfrog over the D850/D5; what I can't figure out is when to expect it. Will we see it in the next year? Or is 2019 more likely?

Getting back to the original question:

To Leapfrog Nikon, Canon needs newer Silicon technology that has lower leakage and new HDR pixel design. Lower leakage will give them higher picture count per battery charge and HDR pixel will make DR freaks happy ;-)

When Canon will get there is just a shot in the dark. My guess is at least 2020 if not longer....

Rexgig0 · Apr 4, 2018

Digitalshooter2 said:
SmilerGrogan said:

Has anyone figured out the scheduling of when Canon and Nikon trade dominance in the higher-end camera market?

To me it's an obvious example of an informal keiretsu, because over and over Canon comes out with a camera that blows away Nikon (like the 5DII for instance) and then after a year or two Nikon responds with a camera that torpedoes Canon (like the D3s or the D850).

Right now it's Canon's turn to release a camera that will leapfrog over the D850/D5; what I can't figure out is when to expect it. Will we see it in the next year? Or is 2019 more likely?

Click to expand...

Getting back to the original question:

To Leapfrog Nikon, Canon needs newer Silicon technology that has lower leakage and new HDR pixel design. Lower leakage will give them higher picture count per battery charge and HDR pixel will make DR freaks happy ;-)

When Canon will get there is just a shot in the dark. My guess is at least 2020 if not longer....

photog7320 · Apr 4, 2018

Ed Rizk said:
I don't know that any modern camera blows another in the same class away.

True.

Ed Rizk said:
The constant drumbeat of more DR in Sony and Nikon cameras goes on and on. Canon has improved sensor performance by this metric less than the others, but the difference is not dramatic and matters only in certain situations. My theory is that Canon can't go any farther and maintain their color rendering which so many consider superior.

The 5D IV yields 13.5. There's a tool out that adds 1ev to the highlight side of dual pixel RAWs for 14.5 total. That's within 0.3 of Nikon and arguably more useful since it gives more highlight flexibility.

So Canon could boost dual pixel cameras...or at least the 5D IV...by a stop now without altering their colors.

How long till Canon leapfrogs Nikon again?

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