Mirrorless - do or die time now

There are too many players already. FF mirrorless is expensive, and is (and will remain) a niche market. The whole industry is trying to re-calibrate, but the sad fact is that the ILC market decline will continue and many of these companies are Dead Men Walking.

Ricoh has a (small) chance to carve out a tiny niche for itself: cameras with optical viewfinders. They could even employ some innovation there and add electronic hybrid features. It is, and will remain, a small market - but at least there's a little bit of money to be made there. But they still don't seem to have a coherent strategy.
Whatever product plan Ricoh has for Pentax must come with high product margin. Optical is on its way out just from the standpoint of production cost. Sony's A9 shows what AF capability you can get with mirrorless. It will be similar to the transition from CRT to LED.
TBH, if I was an investor I wouldn't be putting *any* money into the ILC camera industry. Fuji seems to be the only company that has a decent future, they seem to be making all the right decisions. But even they are successful, they will just be masters of a small market.
I don't think Ricoh would mind to be the master of a small market. As long as it can make good money.
 
Both Canon and Nikon are working on FF mirrorless now, probably shooting for 2018 Photokina. 645 and K1 didn't prevent the camera business from going further south as the latest quarterly financial report reveals. I think Ricoh must embark on FF mirrorless too, if not already, to give Pentax a fighting chance. It is do or die time now.
I'm sorry ... you base this on something on a mirrorless fan site which begins

"If Canon Rumors is to believed—the current rumor has a low rating for reliability, but it's something I've also heard—Canon is targeting a full frame EF mount mirrorless camera for 2018"

and carries on
But I don't think Canon will be alone in this approach. Nikon has been in fervent rethink mode

You jump from "A rumour with low reliability" and an "I don't think" to a statement with a certain statement that they are

Where's this quarterly report ?
Here.
Some reality checks:

1. According to CIPA (the trade body for Japanese camera makers) DSLRs outsell mirrorlesss by more than 2:1

2. We've seen a Mirrorless K Mount already camera. The K-01 was not a success. And we've seen a super small mirrorless, in the Q. Not successful either.

3. A camera with K Mount and its flange distance it is bulky compared with other mirrorless (this is also true if Cannikon try to use their SLR mounts).

4. Not keeping K mount means a new set of lens to go with it. Given the rate at which FF lenses are coming out for the K1, or the range built for the Q that's a problem.
 
Both Canon and Nikon are working on FF mirrorless now, probably shooting for 2018 Photokina. 645 and K1 didn't prevent the camera business from going further south as the latest quarterly financial report reveals. I think Ricoh must embark on FF mirrorless too, if not already, to give Pentax a fighting chance. It is do or die time now.
You've boarded the hypetrain I see.

Mirrorless ILCs are a part of the market.. However they aren't the end all, be all of ILC design.

There is a popularity in online social media driving mirrorless cameras right now, much in the same way as their was a social media hype driving tablet sales 5 years ago.

While I don't think the two are directly related.. I think the hype is.. how many bought a tablet expecting some great experience only to realize it was a giant smartphone? That's fine except it wasn't some grandiose 'game changer' to computing as some loud online voices touted.

The point being there is and will always be a market for DSLRs... even if that market shrinks..
Don't disagree with you that there will always be a market for DSLRs. The thing is can you make some money out of it? Even though Nikon is loosing market share to Canon but it still makes good profit. I don't think Ricoh would mind being in that position.
Until an EVF can perform at the level of an OVF at extremely minimal cost to battery life, we'll see DSLRs. (And right now even the best EVFs are inferior to OVF in refresh rate and clarity)
I am betting on EVF to oust OVF. The bottom line is it is not what you or me prefer but what makes sense for business.
The hype is just strong right now.. its high technology and the touted 'future' by a loud minority. Maybe it is.. Maybe Ricoh launch a mirrorless ILC soon. But they won't give up DSLR design.. not in a long time... if ever. And even if they don't Pentax still lives.

I'm just tired of reading the squeaky wheels on needing mirrorless or the company is going to explode. That's not going to happen.. besides, there are so many other reasons the company would whither than not having a serious mirrorless option. How about lack of pro service, no marketing, thus no brand recognition, minimal brick and mortar presence, slow FF lens output, shrinking 3rd party support, etc. THOSE are the things we should be discussing, if anything. Not mirrorless causing the downfall of the brand. haha
Maybe mirrorless is the gateway to those good things you mentioned (indication of a booming business). I believe Ricoh recognizes that DSLRs is not the solution in its official statement responding to Nikkei's report.
 
Mirrorless is the future and the sooner they jump into it the faster they will catch up Mirrorless offerings.

You need to launch products to see what is working or not, what the users like or not,
No, you don't. No successful business would do that. Every product launch is expected to be a hit or at least profitable.
like the K-01 failure against its opponents:
No viewfinder, no articulated display, big and fat, slow, discutable design and ergonomics, no wonder why it was quickly forgotten against the Fuji xpro1.
 
Both Canon and Nikon are working on FF mirrorless now, probably shooting for 2018 Photokina. 645 and K1 didn't prevent the camera business from going further south as the latest quarterly financial report reveals. I think Ricoh must embark on FF mirrorless too, if not already, to give Pentax a fighting chance. It is do or die time now.
You've boarded the hypetrain I see.

Mirrorless ILCs are a part of the market.. However they aren't the end all, be all of ILC design.

There is a popularity in online social media driving mirrorless cameras right now, much in the same way as their was a social media hype driving tablet sales 5 years ago.

While I don't think the two are directly related.. I think the hype is.. how many bought a tablet expecting some great experience only to realize it was a giant smartphone? That's fine except it wasn't some grandiose 'game changer' to computing as some loud online voices touted.

The point being there is and will always be a market for DSLRs... even if that market shrinks..
Don't disagree with you that there will always be a market for DSLRs. The thing is can you make some money out of it? Even though Nikon is loosing market share to Canon but it still makes good profit. I don't think Ricoh would mind being in that position.
Well I'm not buying mirrorless.. the EVFs today (even on the top of the line Sonys that I've used) are so awful to me that I'd rather give up photography than use them.

They are still an immature technology at this point. Even if they matched the OVF 1:1 (which they physically never will -- but will approach) the formfactor of the mirrorless camera today is generally of a fat smartphone. That's the wrong way to do ergonomics in my book. I want a huge grip to.... grip.

The other issue is offering a mirrorless without the mirrorbox seems great as now the company gets to resell you all the lenses you own in another mount. Or, at least, a converter.

But then that opens your camera system up to other lenses. Why bother with Pentax lenses when you can have Canon L glass for instance?

If they include the mirrorbox then one of the primary assets to going mirrorless is lost... might as well have kept the the OVF in that case.

Until an EVF can perform at the level of an OVF at extremely minimal cost to battery life, we'll see DSLRs. (And right now even the best EVFs are inferior to OVF in refresh rate and clarity)
I am betting on EVF to oust OVF. The bottom line is it is not what you or me prefer but what makes sense for business.
The bottom line is dictated by what the consumer buys. Whether the consumer agrees with what the business offers is another story. But I don't live in an Orwellian society (yet) where the business tells me what I like. I like what I like and the business that offers that the closest gets my money.
The hype is just strong right now.. its high technology and the touted 'future' by a loud minority. Maybe it is.. Maybe Ricoh launch a mirrorless ILC soon. But they won't give up DSLR design.. not in a long time... if ever. And even if they don't Pentax still lives.

I'm just tired of reading the squeaky wheels on needing mirrorless or the company is going to explode. That's not going to happen.. besides, there are so many other reasons the company would whither than not having a serious mirrorless option. How about lack of pro service, no marketing, thus no brand recognition, minimal brick and mortar presence, slow FF lens output, shrinking 3rd party support, etc. THOSE are the things we should be discussing, if anything. Not mirrorless causing the downfall of the brand. haha
Maybe mirrorless is the gateway to those good things you mentioned (indication of a booming business). I believe Ricoh recognizes that DSLRs is not the solution in its official statement responding to Nikkei's report.
Nahh.. mirrorless is largely a gateway to nuking your own lens sales. Plus, as I've mentioned, I suspect a lot of the hype with mirrorless is just that... hype. Flash in a pan. Don't get me wrong, there is a market for it (as seen by Sony, Fuji, Panasonic) but it isn't THE market... just a portion of it. It remains that way in the future.

Pentax, as a brand, is centered around the Pentaprism. It is even in their brand name. I don't see them changing anytime soon or giving that up without a fight. Otherwise they might as well market these cameras as Ricoh.
 
1. According to CIPA (the trade body for Japanese camera makers) DSLRs outsell mirrorlesss by more than 2:1
Certainly true. I'm sure APS-C still outsells FF by a large margin also, but we can probably agree that Pentax hurt themselves by being late to the FF party.
2. We've seen a Mirrorless K Mount already camera. The K-01 was not a success. And we've seen a super small mirrorless, in the Q. Not successful either.
This probably more than anything will determine the possibility of a future Pentax mirrorless. I wouldn't hold my breath.
3. A camera with K Mount and its flange distance it is bulky compared with other mirrorless (this is also true if Cannikon try to use their SLR mounts).
This only really matters for wide angle lenses. Unfortunately wide angle lenses are very popular. If you can shrink the rest of the camera, the lens mount could protrude from the camera giving it the illusion of being thinner overall.
4. Not keeping K mount means a new set of lens to go with it. Given the rate at which FF lenses are coming out for the K1, or the range built for the Q that's a problem.
All of us with a vested interest in K-mount lenses (i.e. everybody on this forum) would hate to see Pentax distracted by a new lens mount.
 
... Plus, as I've mentioned, I suspect a lot of the hype with mirrorless is just that... hype. Flash in a pan. Don't get me wrong, there is a market for it (as seen by Sony, Fuji, Panasonic) but it isn't THE market... just a portion of it. It remains that way in the future.
I'm fully agreed on the hype factor, but there's a real problem behind it. As more and more people become used to phones as their only experience with taking pictures, it will be harder to make the case of OVF being desirable. Mirrorless will just be closer to what they're used to. I know that after my initial experience with compact digital cameras, there was a time that I was convinced that I'd never have a camera with a "squintfinder" again. Luckily I came to see the advantages and disadvantages of both systems, but it's easy to be biased.
 
APSC f/2.8 zooms are usually smaller and lighter than their f/4 FF equivalents for example, there are a lot of examples showing a specific piece of glass better than another equivalent piece of glass on another format (bigger or smaller) so in the end, it is mostly glass that matters.
Glass always matters. Sometimes equivalents simply aren't available. I'm quite fond of my new Sigma 17-50/F2.8 for example, is there an equivalent FF compatible 26-75/F4 to compare it to?
Sigma 18-35 & 50-100 are good examples of what a smaller format can do with the right glass, faster and sharper across the frame for a similar weight/size, but it came at the price of a limited focal range.
Good IQ has always come at the expense of a limited focal range, that's nothing new no matter what the format. Prime lenses are the logical endpoint of that game. There has been a change in the way manufacturers can optimize for a given set of compromises, but that's more a matter of the lens newness rather than format.
 
Up to this point mirrorless technology has been weak. Now that its leading edge is finally starting to approach DSLR level capabilities, sure - bring it on Canon. And a big shout out to everyone who financed mirrorless through the lean development years.
 
Perusing other forums and this thread caught my eye. I wonder if there have been any closed-door discussions regarding some form of tech sharing or merger (similar to Panasonic and Olympus in m43). "Canikonax" has a certain ring to it...

"Turn my eyes from looking at worthless things;
and give me life in your ways." - Psalm 119:37
 
Both Canon and Nikon are working on FF mirrorless now, probably shooting for 2018 Photokina. 645 and K1 didn't prevent the camera business from going further south as the latest quarterly financial report reveals. I think Ricoh must embark on FF mirrorless too, if not already, to give Pentax a fighting chance. It is do or die time now.
Hey, if FF mirrorless is guaranteed to make money for Ricoh, I say go for it! But that's certainly not a decision to be made lightly.

I for one really do not care mirror vs mirrorless. I care if I can mount my K-mount lenses on any well built, well specified camera that falls within my price range, with the latter usually dominate the decision to make a purchase.

Slim/light body is in vogue now, I like it too, but that does not mean mirrorless is the answer for every company, especially one with established lens mount. If I buy non-Pentax FF mirrorless, which likely will be some used Sony A7R, I am not going to buy any of the expensive Sony lenses, instead, I am going to adapt my K-mount lenses to them. So I do not care Pentax has its own mirrorless implementation unless it does AF/metering with my K-mount lenses.

There are probably quite a few of us taking this lens adaptation approach with mirrorless, so any mirrorless manufacturer need to account for the possibility that people will not necessarily buy their native lenses. Is mirrorless still a product worth pursuing then without additional lens sales? If manufacturer has to jack up its mirrorless offerings due to fewer expected lens sales, that high price will also put people off. If you look at prices of recently introduced mirrorless cameras like Sony A6500 ($1400), Fuji XT-2 ($1600), Olympus EM-1ii ($2000), you get the idea. Maybe these manufacturers figured out how little loyalty mirrorless buyers have towards them, so they need to recoup their cost with higher body prices.

On the other hand, a slim, lighter weight Pentax K-mount FF camera would interest me if priced well. So it does not have to be mirrorless.
 
"we will focus on allocating investments in growth businesses in which we can leverage our strengths to generate market expansion".

This is from the "Issues to be resolved" section of the report.

So - if they focus on 'growth businesses', what does this mean for Pentax?
The problem is that the imaging division has no leverage as it is and the prognosis for the near future is no improvement:

-third party lens support is ending from at least Sigma and Tamron has been on that train for a long time now, outside of two rebadged and overpriced FF zooms

-the AF problems with Pentax can no longer be kept hidden on forums and comment areas of websites. The issues are real, getting worse, despite advancements made.

-pricing policies has actually encouraged brick and mortar stores in Europe to not stock and restock

-we now have price increases in various territories in Europe

-Pro Service is gone (especially important for 645 owners and prospects)

-roadmap is not being fulfilled, despite claims on the internet that it's going great. We will literally be in the mid 2020s at this pace

-DA lenses need to be updated, adding to the headaches of an outdated lineup and money that needs to be invested, which apparently Ricoh doesn't have much of anymore.
 
Was one of the biggest factors touted by mirrorless fans.

Have a darn good look at Pentax DSLR bodies.... small and can be made light using more plastic.

A Kp is going to be a similar size to a Fuji...

So next thing is AF.... Pentax just need to get their act together and bring out a load of new faster ones. Thats nothing to do with mirrorless.

So size and AF arguments are answered to a point.

But if we need to please the market, then bring out K-02 with a better design, ergonomics and AF speed.....

The K-01 and Q are not a reason to stop bringing out a mirrorless.

The biggest issue is AF and lenses: period.
 
I understand the preference many have for a good optical viewfinder over even the best EVF. Yes, they are nicer to look through.

As well as a K1, I use a Panasonic GH4. I definitely prefer the K1 images, but for ease of use and convenience would choose the GH4 every time.

I use LV from waist level much of the time, it gives a different perspective on the world from that shown from between 5 and 6 feet above ground level. So the VF isn't as important to me as to some.

But I find the GH4 EVF perfectly adequate; and EVFs will surely develop and improve in the future.
And they can show the chosen exposure (WYSIWYG) , along with zebra stripes for over-exposure and VF focus peaking, non of which is possible with an OVF.
Also the ability to choose focus point with a jab of the finger is a huge plus for me - so much quicker than fiddling around with four-way buttons.

I'm holding off buying more lenses because I have no confidence I won't find a FF mirrorless camera that appeals to me in the near or medium future.

I should add that, quite apart from the price, I don't love the Sony mirrorless cameras. And to have a mirrorless camera without a touchscreen loses a big part of its functionality.

There are no rights and no wrongs in this matter, just what each of us prefers. As for the commercial viability of the systems, it's my completely uninformed guess that mirrorless will predominate in time.

We'll find out.
 
Whatever product plan Ricoh has for Pentax must come with high product margin. Optical is on its way out just from the standpoint of production cost. Sony's A9 shows what AF capability you can get with mirrorless. It will be similar to the transition from CRT to LED.
I agree. Actually, if I had to recommend anything to Pentax (yeah, megalomania kicking in ...) it would be to leap frog their DSLR related AF issues by going mirrorless. But the there is the lens problem: too old (too many screw drive lenses counter the improvements possible with embracing electronics in photography fully), too slow (large aperture helps AF with on sensor PDAF), too slow focusing (most lenses would have to be redesigned to work well with MILCs) and too often lenses are not top notch optically (e.g. compare what Sigma does although with another philosophy in mind [that resembles my own much more than Pentax' lately ...]). I see Pentax becoming more and more a niche player with vintage appeal. And I am not an action shooter. I would call myself an allrounder. Yet Pentax AF-C (and even AF-S) is getting into my way too often. It is not even mediocre any more it is outright bad (speaking of my K-3 - and in my perception there hasn't been the slightest progress since).

Yep, I am quite a bit bit frustrated with the development of the Pentax system, my system of choice since I have entered digital photography. Yet, my frustration is not limited to Pentax alone. As a shooter on a budget I would love to have access to third party lenses. That means I would have to choose between Canon and Nikon. I would go Nikon probably in a second just for the AF if it wasn't that Nikon seems to be late itself in many respects (MILC) and is in economic trouble. So I am waiting because I cannot afford / don't want to invest in a system left behind for a second time.

Do not misunderstand me, I am not a MILC fan. But I see serious advantages of the technology with decreasing disadvantages. So I guess that in the long run MILCs will prevail. But for the moment I simply do not know where to go. So, actually, I have stopped all investment in gear and will wait and see what is going to happen on the market.

Of course your mileage may vary. These are just my 2ct.
 
What's the point of the mirrorless cameras?

Is it the smaller and light weight bodies?

O.k. what about the lenses ?did you see the Sony G lenses how big and heavy even the wide angle lens.

Mirrorless is not the ideal idea for a company their name borrowed from PENTAprism.

--
pentaxian .
 
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What's the point of the mirrorless cameras?

Is it the smaller and light weight bodies?

O.k. what about the lenses ?did you see the Sony G lenses how big and heavy even the wide angle lens.

Mirrorless is not the ideal idea for a company their name borrowed from PENTAprism.
 
... Plus, as I've mentioned, I suspect a lot of the hype with mirrorless is just that... hype. Flash in a pan. Don't get me wrong, there is a market for it (as seen by Sony, Fuji, Panasonic) but it isn't THE market... just a portion of it. It remains that way in the future.
I'm fully agreed on the hype factor, but there's a real problem behind it. As more and more people become used to phones as their only experience with taking pictures, it will be harder to make the case of OVF being desirable. Mirrorless will just be closer to what they're used to. I know that after my initial experience with compact digital cameras, there was a time that I was convinced that I'd never have a camera with a "squintfinder" again. Luckily I came to see the advantages and disadvantages of both systems, but it's easy to be biased.
If mirrorless cameras are like smart phones then the fighting is between them not with dslrs.
 
What's the point of the mirrorless cameras?
In very short: everything a computer can do better than a non-computer.
Is it the smaller and light weight bodies?
No. And never was in my perception. There was a lot of misunderstanding when the first competitive MILCs came to the market.
O.k. what about the lenses ?did you see the Sony G lenses how big and heavy even the wide angle lens.
Yep. Except for the NX1 I am still waiting for a mirrorless that embraces the advantages of the technology without compromising on ergonomics. If Pentax had not the wrong lens system for this step I'd recommend them to go this way. Actually, I had hoped they would by Samsungs's NX system.
Mirrorless is not the ideal idea for a company their name borrowed from PENTAprism.
Poor people who were named Christian or Christine and would like who become atheists ...

In other words: who cares about names?
 
645 and K1 didn't prevent the camera business from going further south as the latest quarterly financial report reveals. I
Where's this quarterly report ?
Here.
The report to year end March 31 2017 https://www.ricoh.com/IR/financial_data/financial_result/data/29/q4_report.pdf says overseas camera sales in local currency increased but that was offset by the rise in the value of the yen, and the "Other" group which includes cameras has sales which are up from 109,053 to 111,949 -EMEA and Japan both up, US down in yen up in $ (In a market where overall unit sales and price per unit are both down, they seem to increased market share) . We don't know what other than cameras is included in other so it is hard to say anything for sure. But nothing there justifies the "business going further south" claim

They wrote down the value of property, plant, and intangibles in the Camera business by and quote different numbers in different parts of the report, If that means they think IP in the Pentax business may not be worth as much as they thought, this could be a bad sign. If they've decided they have to write off plant and real-estate investment at some point and now is a good time, then it could be a good sign. Again hard to say anything for sure.
 

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